Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Nick Lodolo (CIN) vs PIT (W) – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 12 Ks – 27 Whiffs, 46% CSW, 81 pitches.
I’ve been impressed by the growth of Nick Lodolo for the entire season and we saw him blossom against the Pirates in a brilliant outing as he heads into the off-season: 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 12 Ks – 27 Whiffs, 46% CSW, 81 pitches. This wasn’t a season of Lodolo having the volatility of old. This was a season of a healthy pitcher finally getting his chance to find his path.
That path is simple – Curveballs down-and-gloveside, changeups down-and-armside, and fastballs upstairs (sinkers in to LHB, four-seamers in to RHB, too). It’s the traditional approach for southpaws with low arm angles (15 degrees is suuuuper low) and it shouldn’t be a surprise that it took some time for Lodolo to get there. But he’s been here for a while and it took him to get a non-elite offense to fully emerge.
I’m so in on this. The only real concern I have is health given his track record, and I think many will be shocked to see he landed on a 3.30 ERA and 1.06 WHIP across 155 frames this year. Whoa, he was that good?! Yeah, he was. And he may have deserved even better.
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) @ ARI (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 94 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. For all the concerns about a six-man rotation and his questionable health last season, The Inquistor was exactly as advertised, if not better: 173.2 IP, 2.49 ERA, 0.99, 29% strikeout rate in thirty starts. That’s pretty dang awesome. He really deserved more than twelve Wins.
Bailey Ober (MIN) @ TEX (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 78 pitches.
WELL NOW. Here I was, terrified of Ober and his declining velocity and what does he do? Why decline a little more to 88.4 mph and not make it matter. I’m thrilled y’all can exhale wherever you took the risk, and we can all collectively push Ober aside in next year’s drafts, yeah? That velocity is so troubling and it took him all season to find any sort of command on his pitches. The wall of the off-season is filled with rust and it’ll be hard to bank on Ober shaking it all off to maintain this feel in six months. Count me out.
Walker Buehler (PHI) vs MIA (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 74 pitches.
Oh, so they did let you go five full frames. And you were able to shutout the Marlins with a 48% strike four-seamer and 36% strike curve making up over 40% of your pitches. WELL ISN’T THAT SPECIAL.
Emerson Hancock (SEA) vs COL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 45% CSW, 51 pitches.
I should have realized that Hancock would be so heavily limited given his time in the bullpen as of late, but hot dang, the dude should have been given a chance to go one more frame. Nah, they need him for the playoffs. If the Mariners need Hancock in the playoffs, it’ll be the role of Banda to take on innings in a lost game to preserve the pen. SO LET HIM HAVE THIS MOMENT. For those curious, don’t read into this. It was Rockie Road and Hancock is still not commanding his sinker well, nor has he found an unreal sweeper or stud command. It is -15″ horizontal on the sweeper and 20″ on the sinker at 95 mph… Not enough. At least command it and have a third pitch, yeah?
Drew Rasmussen (TBR) @ BAL (ND) – 2.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 57 pitches.
And thus concludes the bell curve of Rasmussen’s 2025. I’ll be very much interested in Rasmussen next year, though be careful not to grab him too early. There are sure to be some headaches regarding his usage in Tampa Bay land. That said, you can take the good of this year and make it more consistent throughout the year with Tropicana returning, while the ultra short leash should be removed. Awww yeah.
Louis Varland (TOR) vs BOS (ND) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 43% CSW, 23 pitches.
It was a bullpen game for the Jays, who made had a collective perfect game through six innings (lol). Let’s move on.
Framber Valdez (HOU) @ ATH (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 92 pitches.
THANK YOU. Framber’s curveball returned when the Astros needed it most and what a beautiful thing it was. For next season, I think there is a wide understanding of his volatility after the turmoil he put y’all through, which makes me wonder if he’ll be a value for the first time. You can’t be serious… I DON’T KNOW. Maybe.
Tyler Mahle (TEX) vs MIN (L) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 78 pitches.
Atta boy Mahle! The splitter was fantastic with a 41% CSW and the heater sat… 91.2 mph with an 18% CSW. But just one hit! It was a HR. JUST. ONE. HIT. The cutter was the weapon against RHB and did good work at 81% strikes and 38% CSW, too, outlining what he could be after a healthy off-season. You may have a deep league sleeper here if Mahle is sitting 93 mph in the spring – The splitter and cutter look like worthy complements. That’s a big IF, though.
Janson Junk (MIA) @ PHI (L) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 61 pitches.
He was pulled earlier than expected in a close game and I’m impressed he was able to locate his heaters and sliders so well, especially to LHB. I’m not interested for next season – too much needs to go right for this to work out of the gate and continuously throughout the season – but I appreciate the JunkBaller’s work here.
Troy Melton (DET) @ CLE (ND) – 3.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 49 pitches.
It was a surprise start for Melton, and we didn’t expect him to go long as he hadn’t been stretched out prior. We didn’t even see Keider Montreo in relief, but what we did see was the worst of Melton. So many terribly located pitches down the heart of the plate with few strikes on the secondaries. This is far from his best and I’m still stoked about him for 2026.
Jalen Beeks (ARI) vs LAD (L) – 1.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 13 pitches.
Beeks opened for Nabil Crismatt, who was obliterated for 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 72 pitches by the Dodgers. Yeesh. But hey, it’s still a cool changeup! He allowed two HRs off of it, you know. I know, I know, but it’s still really cool! If he had something else to pair with it consistently, then there may be a streamer for next year. That’s all I’m saying.
Michael Lorenzen (KCR) @ LAA (W) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 84 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! I’m shocked this worked so well for Lorenzen and I’m still mad Bailey Falter didn’t take his spot in the rotation. He may appear somewhere next year on a team and no, you don’t want to chase it. But hey, great stuff bud.
Brayan Bello (BOS) @ TOR (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 89 pitches.
He almost had it. Five shutout frames, then three runners got on base and all scored (one reached on an error) in a Careful, Icarus. We saw growth this year from Bello as he solidified his sinker/sweeper/cutter approach while attacking the zone without fear, but he still seems on gear away from being something legit. For now, consider him a late volume arm if you have little stability.
Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) @ CIN (L) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 72 pitches.
I’m happy to see Ashcraft throw 31% curveballs along with the 93 mph slider as I see both breakers as the true weapons of the arsenal. That sinker at 97 mph is hard, but comes with terrible movement and poor command – four hits here and they deserved to get hit. I’m not sure what do with Ashcraft for next season. I just don’t like those fastballs, despite the velocity, and he hasn’t gone sub 30% fastballs yet. I’m not sure he ever will. Are the Pirates going to let him go every five days and 90+ pitches next year? Maybe?
Carlos Rodón (NYY) vs CHW (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 82 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Over 200 strikeouts is pretty dang cool. Way to be a rock for managers willing to snag you as their SP #3/#4 this year. Believe in pitch additions in the second half, y’all. Rodón’s changeup was a game-changer.
Davis Martin (CHW) @ NYY (ND) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 85 pitches.
Yeaaaah, can’t say we expected anything else against the Yankees. I dig the southpaws with changeups more than Martin for next year. He’ll have to show something new for me to get on board.
Mitch Farris (LAA) vs KCR (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 84 pitches.
I still love that slothball (76% strikes, 6/21 whiffs), and look at this! He sat 1-2 ticks higher on his four-seamer! At 91.4 mph. Okay, fair. But still! It was able to play with the changeup well and returned 8/47 whiffs, with his only real mistake coming from a poor slider in the first that landed over the fence. Oh look, it really is another southpaw with a good changeup. GET USED TO IT.
Parker Messick (CLE) vs DET (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 89 pitches.
So close. The changeup let him down for just 48% strikes as he landed them a little too low under the plate, while a trio of longballs lit up the scoreboard. At least you got seven strikeouts, eh? Messick is a decent target in 15-teamers for next year and is of consideration for 12-teamers if the schedule goes his way early.
Cade Povich (BAL) vs TBR (ND) – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 99 pitches.
Womp womp. Man, I really liked this start from Povich – a Toby against a mid offense in a decent park, facing LHB who don’t like LHP – and Povich got Singled Out with a few too many pitches over the heart of the plate. Consider Povich as a 15-teamer sleeper as your six-inning decent arm on a potentially winning club. 180+ innings are coming, especially if he finds a way to sit 94+ mph.
Nolan McLean (NYM) @ CHC (W) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 11 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 94 pitches.
McLean was cruising, looking like the stud of the second half until the Cubs began the HR brigade with two solo shots in the fourth and fifth, then a three-run bomb for Suzuki’s second longball of the game. That’s yer ballgame. It’s really too bad, as it creates a Dusty Donut on an otherwise excellent outing that looks like business per usual until that final HR. Careful, Icarus. I wonder what his ADP will be next year. I think I’m in, though its hard not to be a little concerned about his lack of an overwhelming fastball.
Bradley Blalock (COL) @ SEA (L) – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 16% CSW, 73 pitches.
Blalock had a chance outside of Coors. Chances are just that. Chances. Yeah, that’s what I said. Yeeeesh.
J.T. Ginn (ATH) vs HOU (L) – 3.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 81 pitches.
Bleeeeegh. A rough one for Ginn, who had better command than the line would suggest. He was Singled Out and lost a few batters, that’s about it. He’ll be an arm to consider in deeper formats last year, though the home park will still do him few favors. Hard to chase him in 12-teamers.
Shota Imanaga (CHC) vs NYM (L) – 5.2 IP, 8 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 91 pitches.
Whoa. Imanaga was a rock for the entire year, save for a few starts early in the season… and this one. Simply put, the Mets jumped on him in the first, slapped two HRs in the third and fourth, then sent him packing in the sixth, hitting both Imanaga’s four-seamers and splitters far better than most. Thing is, Imanaga wasn’t locating terribly at all. I’m kinda shocked by it and the 2026 fantasy manager should not be perturbed by his 3.73 ERA. He’s a mid 3s, great WHIP, solid strikeout rate arm for a winning team. Sorry for those who needed him to come through here, though.
Game of the Day
Brandon Sproat vs. Sandy Alcantara – It’s possibly the last start Sandy will throw as a Marlin and Sproat is trying to put the team on his back.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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