Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Saturday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) @ PIT (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 89 pitches.
There are some pitchers who escape definition. Ones that set themselves apart with unique stuff or consistently stellar performances to enter a tier of their own. Then there are those pitchers we consider a HIPSTER. The ones that are difficult to figure out because of the inconsistencies of their performances. Are they good? Are they bad? Is it even worth spending the time answering that question?
Yusei Kikuchi has long been a member of the flannel-wearing crew, showing glimpses of both upside and consistency, while marring his track record with long stretches of frustration. The re-incorporation of his curveball in 2023 and in the second half of 2024 seemed to unlock his final form, but since signing with the Angels in his mid-thirties, the upside has rarely been tangible. A lack of command has been pervasive in holding him back.
Since returning from a four-month-long IL stint and getting through a Still ILL outing, Kikuchi has hinted at an evolution of his game. He one-upped a seven-inning outing last time out with 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 89 pitches (W) in Pittsburgh on Saturday.
We saw increased velo, with his fastball sitting a tick higher north of 96 mph, helping it offset its dead-zone movement, which is further offset by above-average 6.8′ of extension, and a flat 1.6 HAVAA (it really is a paradoxical pitch). The heater was able to limit more damage than usual, thriving in the zone and setting up his secondaries to shine. His breakers, the slider sitting 88+ mph (up a tick) and the curve at 82 mph (+3.6 mph!), actually combined for just 53% strikes, but they missed bats with ease and mixed well with an 88-89 mph splitter (added two ticks) that went 3/7 whiffs with 71% strikes.
His gyro slider returning 70%+ strikes across his previous two starts was what initially increased our confidence in Kikuchi, but with extra velo, an arsenal working like a mutualistic ecosystem, and plenty of strikes, he’s looking stronger in red and white than we’ve seen before. If that slider command returns in concert with the improved stuff, he’ll turn in a start that really turns heads. Kikuchi may not be someone we draft in standard leagues next year, but I’m down to send him out there @WSN and SEA over the next two weeks before sending him back to the wire as he heads to Sacré Verde afterward. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Saturday:
Sonny Gray (BOS) @ BAL (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 92 pitches.
Gray’s command wasn’t grayt, but Koufax embodied the baby sun from Teletubbies, and shone enough light to make this a Sonny day. (View Game Card)
Jeffrey Springs (ATH) @ SEA (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 81 pitches.
Even inside the dome @TEA, there was sunshine and rainbows as Springs located his changeup well low and armside. Koufax was an ally, helping Springs return 14 outs on 16 balls in play. With a rematch against the Mariners up next, you may be tempted to stream round two, but that won’t be wise in Sacré Verde. (View Game Card)
Framber Valdez (DET) @ CLE (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BB, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 94 pitches.
Framber’s trying something new that he’s only hinted at throughout the year – high four-seamers. It makes sense given his affinity for pitches with southward movement. He can surprise upstairs wth the pitch at 95 mph to put batters away and prop up his strike rate. The four-seamer was thrown 17% of the time – more than he’s thrown it all year – and it was thrown in two-strike counts to RHB 67% of the time, accounting for two-thirds of his strikeouts on the day. I think this is a beautiful feather in his cap that takes pressure off his curveball to be the savior every start. We’d be starting regardless with Rockie Road on deck, but there’s more to be excited about Valdez than there’s been all year. (View Game Card)
Anthony Molina (SFG) @ NYM (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit, 1 BB, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 87 pitches.
I’m really loving Molina’s fastball, which sits 95-96 mph with 18-19″ of vert. It’s not an elite heater, with 0.8 HAVAA and 6.4′ of extension at a ~50º arm angle, and it doesn’t have the best support, with a pair of breakers that grade out poorly. His changeup has plenty of potential, but as a righty, he’ll need something with gloveside run to trust to take down the batters he’ll face most often. However, we’ve seen enough pitchers establish a solid floor with a great heater and take off from there. On the high-end, you have guys like Joe Ryan and Bryce Miller, who not only have superior heaters, but were able to develop secondaries to support it and take their games to the next level. You also have guys like Sean Burke and Ryne Nelson. Both have great four-seamers, but have had varying levels of success developing support offerings, leading to runs of greatness. I think Molina’s best comp at the moment is Brandon Young, whose four-seamer has very similar attributes and who has somewhat underwhelming or inconsistent secondaries to back it up. All of these guys have proven that you can succeed with just a great fastball, but the varying trajectories of their careers highlight the importance of the secondaries with which it’s paired. Molina will be a deep league sleeper in 2027. (View Game Card)
Drew Rasmussen (TBR) @ TEX (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 97 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Rasmussen’s changeup is becoming a legit weapon. He threw it more than ever on Saturday, bumping its usage up by 10% to 23%. The slowball gives him another swing-and-miss option that could expand the ceiling of his high-floor profile. With a 19% swinging strike rate on the season, the changeup leads his entire arsenal in whiffability, further supporting the claim that it could unlock a higher strikeout rate. (View Game Card)
Zack Wheeler (PHI) vs ATL (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 95 pitches.
Wheeler’s concerned us for a few weeks, but he’s locked back in just in time for the stretch run. Your concerns about this ace have been assuaged after he earned a share of the Gallows Pole with improved command of his trio of fastball variants and a great feel for his splitter below the zone. (View Game Card)
Carlos Rodón (NYY) @ SDP (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 89 pitches.
We’ll take this all day from Rodón, but he’s clearly still locking in his command. Four-seamers leaked over the plate too often, and secondaries combined for just 47% strikes, manifesting in a trio of walks and inefficiency, leading to 89 pitches and a hook after just five frames. With his stuff still intact, it’ll just be a matter of Rodón getting into a groove with his command, which has been difficult to enter due to a pair of lengthy IL stints. (View Game Card)
Ethan Pecko (HOU) vs ARI (ND) – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BB, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 81 pitches.
What is with the Astros and their affinity for sweeper-first righties? Pecko doubled the usage of his breaker, making it his most-thrown offering, putting him in the same company as fellow sweeper lovers Hayden Wesneski, Kai-Wei Teng, Lance McCullers Jr., and more. Maybe this would’ve made more sense to me if the pitch didn’t fail to exceed 60% strikes while inducing just one whiff. Sitting a tick down across the board and without another pitch stepping up to carry the load, Pecko failed to complete the fifth while simultaneously failing to capture our attention. (View Game Card)
Andrew Abbott (CIN) vs MIL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 58 pitches.
The magic that allowed Abbott to exceed both the expectations of pitching analysts and underlying metrics has faded. Last month, he made six starts and pitched to a 6.89 ERA with a 1.66 WHIP and a sub-3% K-BB%. The calendar flipping seemed to offer Abbott an opportunity to start anew. Things were going great until early showers sent him to the showers early. While I want to give Abbott a second chance to rejoin the streaming menu, I’m not completely sold, as his command didn’t look improved and the strikeouts were a product of an unsustainable 63% putaway rate. Start at your own risk in Milwaukee. (View Game Card)
Jacob deGrom (TEX) vs TBR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BB, 7 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 90 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. deGrom’s slider was off, as it didn’t find the zone once against LHB. He pivoted and instead threw changeups and sinkers more often to compensate. It worked, as changeups induced seven whiffs and sinkers returned 90% strikes. We’ll want to see that slider return to be fully confident in his outlook, but we’ll be fine auto-starting him nonetheless. (View Game Card)
Cade Cavalli (WSN) @ LAD (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 103 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Cavalli can’t be denied the title of ace after he took down the two-time reigning champs with relative ease. Cavalli was more hyped than ever, not only throwing his heater a tick harder at 97-98 mph, but also gaining two ticks to unleash his fastest breakers of the season. Curveballs and sweepers sat north of 88 mph and combined for eight whiffs and 35% CSW, setting up his Empty Velocity four-seamer to dominate upstairs. The real x-factor continues to be the incorporation of a mid-90s cutter that keeps him in counts with high strike rates. Don’t think twice about starting Cavalli the rest of the way. (View Game Card)
Dustin May (MIL) @ CIN (ND) – 3.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 56 pitches.
The marriage of May and the Brewers seemed to be ideal. His ground ball approach seemed like it would benefit from the excellent Brewers infield defense, while the club’s pitching development was sure to get the most out of his improved arsenal. His first two starts were great, but he got Singled Out for seven runs, had an early exit due to a comebacker, was meh in his last start, and had his start on Saturday cut short due to a rain delay. That seems like a lot of bad luck. Now that I see all the starts together in one sentence, I’m seeing the same pattern. Everything’s still intact to allow May to succeed in a rematch against the Reds next week. (View Game Card)
George Kirby (SEA) vs ATH (L) – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BB, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 100 pitches.
This was an unearned run away from being another disappointing start from Kirby. There’s a semblance of an approach that could work here. It’s always “approach” with this guy. What about the results?! Yeah…it’s still not working, but we have to keep our eyes open for a change that could suggest improvements in his future results. Okay, let’s hear about that approach. He’s doing the Canibal McSanchez +BSB against LHB that I’ve become a fan of, and that worked wonders. Unfortunately, despite having an arsenal with a sinker-sweeper-four-seamer combo that should eat up RHB, Kirby continues to struggle against them. We saw some sinkers jam batters, most sweepers land gloveside, and four-seamers climbing the ladder, but too many pitches sat in the heart of the plate, accounting for six of his seven hits. The RHB command could click at any moment, but I’m not sure I want to take the chance in a rematch in Sacré Verde. (View Game Card)
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) @ HOU (ND) – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 93 pitches.
It’s not the crazy Vargas Rule Pfaadt was on when he returned from the minors, but he’s settled in as a reliable and streamable Toby. His feel for a deep arsenal allows him to carve out a game plan suited to take down any lineup he’s faced with. Against the RHB-heavy Astros, he understandably countered with a bunch of sweepers, complementing them with high four-seamers while jamming them with sinkers and stealing strikes with curves. Next time it could be a changeup focus or a kitchen sink approach, but either way, he should provide solid ratios with a decent chance at a win and a quality start. (View Game Card)
Parker Messick (CLE) vs DET (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 12 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 103 pitches.
A leadoff homer in the sixth turned this into a VPQS, but Messick was dominant throughout. Not only did he earn a co-share of the Gallows Pole, but he also set a career-high with a dozen punchouts. The most impressive aspect of this outing was that it was almost exclusively a product of four-seamer domination. Changeups found the zone just once on 21 offerings, leading to a 38% strike rate. Breakers returned just a pair of whiffs and sub-60% strikes. Sinkers and cutters were thrown a combined five times. Four-seamers said, step aside, rolled up their sleeves, powered up with an extra tick of velocity, and proceeded to dominate with 12 whiffs, 44% CSW, and 71% strikes while returning seven strikeouts. He’ll need to find the feel for his changeup if he wants to avoid ruining ratios in Minnesota next. (View Game Card)
Chris Bassitt (BAL) vs BOS (L) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 91 pitches.
Bassitt was sort of cooking, sitting 1-2 ticks up across the board while turning in 5.2 shutout innings, but a two-out walk loaded the bases and a single scored two, knocking him out of the game and saddling him with a Philly. This was velo we hadn’t seen from Bassitt regularly since pre-COVID, so I wouldn’t expect it to stick around…but if it does, he could be a sneaky streamer across the next three weeks with a cushy schedule of @TOR, @NYM, vs TOR. (View Game Card)
Max Scherzer (TOR) @ KCR (ND) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BB, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 76 pitches.
We were treated to a throwback when vintage Mad Max glared at us with his multi-colored eyes last time out, tossing seven one-hit innings with double-digit punchouts. Like an eclipse, it was a once-in-a-season event, as Scherzer reverted to the old-man version of himself. He fatigued with just 76 pitches in the fifth, allowing a two-out single and getting the hook, frustrating fantasy managers with a Philly. He looks far from himself and should only be considered a deep league streamer when he hosts the Orioles. (View Game Card)
Seth Lugo (KCR) vs TOR (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 K – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 95 pitches.
Don’t do this to yourself. Lugo hasn’t fanned more than five batters in the second half, recording a 5.96 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and 14% strikeout rate since the All-Star break. He hadn’t left out bread unbuttered (HAISTBMBWT?!) until Saturday, when he made his once-signature curveball his least-thrown offering. That’s not a development that will change my mind about risking it for the biscuit by starting Lugo. Are wins that precious? (View Game Card)
Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) vs LAA (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 45% CSW, 67 pitches.
Obviously, Ashcraft was better than the ratios suggest. He racked up nine Ks and earned the King Cole, and he had gas left in the tank with just 67 pitches through five frames thanks to earning an impressive 78% overall strike rate. The guy got Singled Out with a .500 BABIP, and Koufax has got to chill sometimes. Don’t be like Doug Eddings and make the game about you. (View Game Card)
Mason Adams (COL) vs STL (ND) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BB, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 78 pitches.
The strikeouts are intriguing, but Coors is undefeated after all. Adams somehow found some success with his deadzone four-seamer. It acted like a spaceship dodging asteroids, with five whiffs and 76% strikes while living in the zone two-thirds of the time, pairing well with curveballs and changeups that combined for nearly 90% strikes. Unfortunately, the BABIP-inflating properties of Coors left him with a .545 mark while a pair of long balls accounted for all three runs. (View Game Card)
Javier Assad (CHC) @ MIA (ND) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 88 pitches.
Typically a command artist, making the most of his underwhelming arsenal by limiting baserunners and trusting the elite defense behind him, Assad lost his feel for the zone and issued a season-high five walks as his overall strike rate fell to 58%. It doesn’t get more outlierish than this. Assad hadn’t walked more than two batters in any outing across the past two seasons (he had a pair of starts in 2024 with 5+ walks) and had only seen his overall strike rate dip below 60% just once this year (50% in a four-inning save in mid-August). With six starters in Chicago, there’s no guarantee Assad gets another start, but if he does, he’ll likely return to providing Toby-like production. (View Game Card)
Tyler Glasnow (LAD) vs WSN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 96 pitches.
Aces gonna allow a double to the first batter he faced in the seventh and head to the dugout only to watch the inherited runner come around to score. Careful, Icarus. It would’ve been a PQS if he didn’t go out for that fateful frame as he struggled to command his curveball (40% strikes), but we shouldn’t have any concerns with Glasnow’s abilities as long as he’s healthy enough to be on the field. (View Game Card)
Taj Bradley (MIN) @ CHW (W) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 80 pitches.
This was one of the few examples of an outing from Bradley in which he returned plenty of strikes with each of his primary trio of offerings, but failed to find the results to match. Blame it on a bamboozling in the first via a pair of homers accounting for a trio of runs. Send him back out there and pray the strikes stick around. They’ve been around for most of the year. (View Game Card)
Martín Pérez (ATL) @ PHI (L) – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 84 pitches.
The magic might have run out. Pérez’s Vargas Rule has lasted all year, but his command has been wavering of late. He’s pitched into the sixth just once while recording an abysmal 1.96 WHIP across his last four starts. With a rematch of the Phillies on the horizon, I’d be looking elsewhere for your doctor-recommended dose of Toby production. (View Game Card)
Ryan Gusto (MIA) vs CHC (L) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 100 pitches.
Abstract is not the term I want to invoke when describing a pitcher’s location plots. Gusto’s command isn’t good enough to make his kitchen sink approach work. Even with a leash of 100 pitches, he failed to complete five frames, something he’s only done three times in 20 games this year. He’s an easy avoid with the Dodgers on schedule. (View Game Card)
Matthew Liberatore (STL) @ COL (L) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 69 pitches.
Liberatore has had moments of intrigue, especially after displaying strikeout upside with a 30% strikeout rate in his first eight starts of the second half (though he had a 6.37 ERA). With slider dominating to the tune of nine whiffs and 70% strikes, he looked like he solved Coors, tossing four perfect frames. The demons inhabiting the stadium rumbled to life and made sure he didn’t complete the fifth frame. He was Singled Out, with four singles, a walk, and an error knocking in five runs and Liberatore out of the game. (View Game Card)
Anthony Kay (CHW) vs MIN (L) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BB, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 82 pitches.
The edges were painted nicely by Kay, but by the second time through the lineup, the Twins had his number. They scored five runs across two frames, with three runners high-fiving around home plate after a homer in the fifth. That’s what he gets for tossing a cutter right down the middle to Ryan Jeffers. Kay has failed to complete five frames while allowing at least four runs in each of his last three starts, so it may be time to give him a break. I won’t rule out a quality start @STL next. (View Game Card)
Robbie Ray (SDP) vs NYY (L) – 2.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 1 K – 4 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 68 pitches.
Ray doesn’t have great command, but this was atrocious. 53% overall strikes led to a quartet of walks that overshadowed his sole strikeout. HAISTBMBWT?! The pitch separation and the intent to pull off the BSB were still there, so I’m not letting a One Night Bland prevent me from starting Ray against his former club in San Francisco next. It gets questionable after that, though, as he’s scheduled to head to Coors before pitching in Hollywood. (View Game Card)
Zac Thornton (NYM) vs SFG (L) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BB, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 82 pitches.
Looks like the Majors finally made their adjustment to Thornton. He threw plenty of strikes with four-seamers, cutters, and sweepers (77% strike rate), but each of those pitches served up a dinger and a pair of hits while changeups failed to transform him into a SWATCH. I’d be avoiding him @NYY next. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Gage Jump vs. Bryan Woo – This could be a boatload of strikeouts or a home run derby. Either way, it’s gonna be fun.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
