Here are today’s daily SP Streamer rankings.
Every day of the 2023 baseball season, I’ll be looking at today and tomorrow’s slate of scheduled starting pitchers and ranking their matchups for your fantasy baseball streams.
There’s a lot that goes into this and you can hang out with me on Playback.tv/pitcherlist to talk about the specific ranks as I make them every weekday morning from 10am – 12pm ET. If you have questions about these ranks, please ask during the morning Playback AMA. Those are my office hours as I generally don’t answer comments on the site.
There are four tiers to these rankings with 12-teamers in mind:
Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man. This includes “if I have them rostered, I’m starting them” pitchers.
Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good-not-elite pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm. These pitchers have a 50% or greater chance of performing well in my view.
Questionable Start – Think of this tier as “I don’t want to start these pitchers in a vacuum, but you could do worse.” Streamers found in this tier are not pitchers I’m targeting and are only if you are in dire need of one. To play it safe with streaming, just start the Probably Start streamers.
Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it. Seriously, these pitchers have a very slim chance of success or sometimes none at all.
Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.
Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results throughout the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!
Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.
There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.
Finally, there are my streaming picks of the day, and please keep in mind that I am forced to pick a streamer every day. Those highlighted in Green are that day’s streaming pick in the second tier and I’d roll with them everywhere. Those in Yellow are in the third tier and should be okay if you’re searching for something on a given day, but I don’t recommend streaming unless you’re in need. Finally, those are Red are those I really don’t want to start (they are labeled as “Do Not Start”, after all) but have no other choice. Don’t stream these guys until you are truly desperate. A streaming pick is defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.
(Opener) – Outlines that a pitcher is being opened for that day & the pitcher listed will follow the opener.
As I do my rankings, I thought it would be helpful to showcase a table of how we’re ranking offenses (in Alphabetical order):
I’m sure it’ll change through the year + there are differences to be made about teams vs. LHP or RHP, but it works as a general table that y’all should keep in mind.
Alright, let’s get to it.
This year, with our new daily fantasy baseball projections powered by PLV, I’ll be competing against PL Bot to pick the best streaming option each day.
To get access to PL Bot’s picks each day, sign up for PL Pro here.
The streaming record is determined by “Was this a productive game for 12-teamers if I started them?” Roughly a PQS with a Win and a strikeout per inning with a sub 1.20 WHIP, with a minimum of 5 IP. Close calls are decided by Playback chat.
Nick’s 2023 Streamer Record: 91-70
My pick yesterday: Connor Phillips @ DET
PL Bot’s 2023 Streamer Record: 81-80
PL Bot’s Pick yesterday: Taj Bradley @ MIN
Want PL Bot’s pick today? Sign Up for PL Pro here.
With the new formatting for the notes, I’ve made the streaming pick of the day Underlined and Italicized.
Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Kevin Gausman vs. TEX – Aces gonna ace.
Merrill Kelly @ NYM – Kelly isn’t sitting on your bench, y’all.
Kyle Bradish vs. TBR – Neither is Bradish.
Kodai Senga vs. ARI – …Or Senga. The cutter has been the rock for his entire season and saved him numerous times when the forkball isn’t there, though it is a dangerous game I suspect won’t hold up in 2024. For this month? Who cares, you do it.
Eury Pérez @ MIL – Pérez is all kinds of fun, but the Shag Rug is still here where it isn’t with the others in the tier.
Kenta Maeda @ CHW – Maeda is better than he was a month ago, but there is still some risk here if the splitter isn’t great with his slider not earning whiffs. Arguably in the top tier, but there is a distinction I wanted to make.
Logan Webb @ COL – Webb has been solid and Coors isn’t as scary as it once was. You’re gonna have some tough choices with Webb in the final weeks.
Mitch Keller vs. WSN – He was on top of the world, then faced Atlanta. He should get back up.
Michael King @ BOS – King has been blistering and was able to survive against the Astros. We ride the hot hand and hope the sinkers + sweepers with some lovely changeups hold up against a Boston lineup that wallops starters in Fenway.
Reese Olson vs. CIN – I dig this one for Olson, who has a strong slider and is able to get his fastball inside enough to generate outs. The Reds are not intimidating on the road (or even at home…?) and if the changeup gets whiffs, this will be pretty.
Aaron Civale @ BAL – We saw twelve strikeouts with a pristine approach, then we saw the normal Civale against the Mariners. Let’s hope it’s more of the former in Waltimore. The park puts him over the edge to let him fly here.
UPDATE: Clarke Schmidt @ BOS –The Red Sox are strong in Fenway, yet Schmidt has been gold across the last two months.
UPDATE: Tanner Houck vs. NYY – With an elite slider and nothing else, trust Houck breaks the Huascar Rule and Ynoa better than that. He’s at the very bottom of this tier since the Yankees are just that blegh these days and maybe his splitter shows up.
Adrian Houser vs. MIA – Y’all know I can’t stand starting Houser, but I recognize this can be six innings of whatever-ball.
Do Not Starts
Josiah Gray @ PIT – I don’t love Josiah’s approach at all, but I recognize that if he has his slider and curve working against a weak Pirates crew, there is value to be had. It’s a more tangible ceiling than the others down here.
Nathan Eovaldi @ TOR – He’ll likely be on a limited pitch count, his velocity wasn’t 95/96 but 94+ in his last start, and it’s Toronto. This ain’t it.
Garrett Whitlock vs. NYY – Oh snap! I’m stoked to see Whitlock back in the rotation, but he isn’t stretched out. I sure hope to be wrong and will be watching this one closely – he could be a lovely sleeper pick this off-season as I expect him to be a staple of that rotation in 2024. H*ck, if this is now a six-man rotation, he would get the White Sox and inside Waltimore for his final two starts. I wonder if we’ll see enough here to go after both of those (I really just need to see 60 pitches here to feel good about that. Maaaaybe 55.)
Chase Anderson vs. SFG – He couldn’t handle the Giants outside of Coors, but at least he gets another shot. There’s a chance, however small.
Ben Lively @ DET – Even against the Tigers, I don’t see this going well unless Raggedy Anne decides to go 40-50% sliders again. Now that would be lovely.
José Ureña vs. MIN – Remember kids, If you start José, Ureña boatload of trouble.
Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Gerrit Cole @ PIT – Aces gonna ace.
Justin Steele @ ARI – Aces gonna ace.
Tarik Skubal @ LAA – Aces gonna ace.
Zach Eflin @ BAL – He was terrible, then better, but the cutter is still not quite back yet. Forget I said that, just start him.
Seth Lugo @ OAK – It’s Oakland and Lugo has been steady against all but the elite offenses.
José Berríos vs. BOS – Ditto for Berríos, but it’s the Sawx, not Athletics.
Hunter Greene @ NYM – There is some obvious risk after we witnessed his terrible return from the IL, but his fastball and slider were better than the results and the Mets aren’t scaring me, especially outside Cincy.
Bobby Miller @ SEA – Bobby 100 hasn’t found his slider quite yet, but the hook has been magnificent.
George Kirby vs. LAD – It’s the Dodgers but Kirby you have to rely on the overall resume of Kirby here. If you prefer a Toby start, go ahead, though they don’t have the same ceiling.
Bryce Elder @ MIA – He’s a Toby for a winning club against a middling squad.
Griffin Canning vs. DET – This is your strikeout stream…except he’s over 20% rostered. FINE. Start him here, his secondaries are great.
Wade Miley vs. WSN – The Nationals have been atrocious against LHP the last two weeks and Miley is a boring Toby who should do his thing without interruption.
Aaron Nola @ STL – He’s more like a Cherry Bomb these days, but are we really benching him here? I honestly don’t blame you if you are.
Jon Gray @ CLE – Gray was in a great groove before losing his command last time out. I’m willing to give him one excuse for a blip and throw him out there again. The slider is too good and the fastball has been far better across the last month.
David Peterson vs. CIN – He was able to get ten whiffs on four-seamers last time out with high heaters and the Reds on the road is a great matchup. That said, that fastball performance looks like a peak, not a plateau, and his secondaries are still suspiciously average.
Bailey Ober @ CHW – We could be seeing Ober return from Triple-A after just one start of 65 pitches, where he did flash a curveball for about 15% usage. If he’s going here, expect about 75 pitches of production across five frames. It’s a limited ceiling (Unlikely for a Bailey Special) but could still be worthwhile. The Twins may be keeping him on this short leash throughout the end of the year to limit his innings, too.
Lucas Giolito vs. TEX – It’s the Rangers and Giolito has turned into a Cherry Bomb. I have him this “high” inside the tier of “I’m not starting them but I understand why you’d be in a situation to do so” given his ceiling when it all clicks sitting as high (if not higher) as the ones below.
Brayan Bello @ TOR – It’s the Jays and Bello doesn’t pack a wallop.
Johan Oviedo vs. NYY – I have Oviedo above the other Cherry Bomb options below given he’s slider focused against a Yankee offense that his highly susceptible to a strong slider approach.
Jack Flaherty vs. TBR – I still believe Flaherty should be getting better results than he has over the last couple weeks, but this is the Rays and a bit too risky.
Cristian Javier @ KCR – We saw excellence, then it dissipated. You can’t trust it to appear again, but if it does…
Brandon Pfaadt vs. CHC – It’s a four-seamer and sweeper that find the zone often and not much else (the changeup is too infrequent). The Cubs punished him last time and it could be more of the same.
Keaton Winn @ COL – The dude had 18 splitter whiffs and an overall 48% CSW last start. I know this is Coors and that was Rockie Road, but there’s a chance it repeats, right? Yeah, you very much bench in most situations.
Zack Thompson vs. PHI – This is awfully close to Do Not Start, but I recognize that Thompson has flashes where he commands his fastball + cutter + curveball mix effectively. He didn’t last time out, but that doesn’t mean he can’t rebound, even against a strong offense.
Do Not Starts
Jake Irvin @ MIL – I really don’t buy into Irvin’s approach of curveballs + two heaters, especially if said heaters aren’t the 95/96 mph pitches he flirted with weeks ago.
Peter Lambert vs. SFG – It’s Coors and Lambert couldn’t do it outside of it.
Jesse Scholtens vs. MIN – Scholtens is a Werewolf at best and that’s not good.
Johnny Cueto vs. ATL – It’s Altanta.
Zack Greinke vs. HOU – Greinke does what Greinke does.
Featured Image by Kurt Wasemiller (@KUWasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)