Every year, I conduct an exercise using a handy and oft-ignored feature of Statcast, the Player Similarity, or “Affinity” feature. This just takes the overall makeup of a player’s batted ball types, such as barrels, flares and grounders, and combines them with walk and strikeout rates and uses an algorithm to determine the most similar overall players by the rates alone. This feature is context-blind, meaning it cares not about playing time, platoons, injuries, speed/defense, or sample size, as long as the sample is big enough for the player to be added. So while I look for comps much better than the actual player, I flag it if the player had a small sample, vastly inferior foot speed to his comps, platoon & injury risk. Oh, and I basically ignore those who play in extreme parks like Colorado and Cincy.
My system for finding these players is pretty messy and essentially just finds the top comps for the league’s worst hitters and then peel back the affinity score until I find a “good” player who feels like he doesn’t belong as a comp. Weirdly, this year I found it harder than most years to find bust comps that meet most of my criteria… either they were too fast, sample too small to be reliable, play catcher, and in a few cases, such as Alec Bohm and Yandy Díaz, I frankly didn’t add them because I expect a rebound year and don’t agree with the algorithm. So sue me.
Luis Robert Jr. (OF, Chicago White Sox) – ADP: 75
Top Comps: Josh Lowe, Zach Gelof, Tyler Fitzgerald, Paul DeJong, Jack Suwinski
Look, I said this Statcast feature is context blind, so it doesn’t take into account existential crises and the highly contagious South Side Sox Ennui. We know Robert will bounce back in 2025 because… um… the team is bett- no, the fact that he hit 38 homers with 20 stolen bases in 2023? Sure. I don’t want to say that season was a total fluke but note that his career 12% Barrel% is actually closer to his 10% mark from last year than his 15% mark in 2023. Not only that but while his HardHit% has stayed rather steady over his career, his Max EV and K% are in multi-year downtrends. He is having a strong spring so far, which is nice, but don’t let this 30 PA sample think those will simply wash away a full season of looking like a wreck.
Can Robert still go at least 20/20? Sure! So can Josh Lowe… and maybe also Tyler Fitzgerald and Zack Gelof. But those guys may have a bad strikeout rate and also a bad supporting cast, unlike… Hey, wait a second! Yes, the projections will keep pointing to him as a value anchoring heavily on his breakout 2023 campaign, and there’s an assumption he’ll break out once traded to a competitive team early in the year or midseason. But don’t forget that his home park is also a homers haven, and his new destination may not be so friendly to the long flies. And don’t get me started on the injury history. I’d much rather take a shot later on Josh Lowe (ADP: 142), who also had a breakout 2023 and will massively benefit from the home park change.
Josh Naylor (1B, Arizona Diamondbacks) – ADP: 85
Top Comps: Jonah Heim, Trea Turner, Ramón Urías, Carlos Correa, Ty France
Maybe these comps don’t seem so bad, I mean there is Trea Turner… but try to imagine him as a Trea Turner who doesn’t steal bases and runs out grounders at Josh Naylor speed. Because again, Statcast Player Similarity ignores what happens outside the batter’s box. Naylor was one of my favorite sleepers last year and did not disappoint (well, other than the putrid second half), and the trade to Arizona has caused some excitement as Cleveland was unlikely to repeat their surprisingly potent offense, and Arizona’s offensive juggernaut certainly should breed more run production opportunities. But his comps point to someone who makes a good deal of contact but without truly impact power, which you don’t expect to see after a 31-homer campaign.
His incredible spring (.469 AVG, 1 HR, 2 SB in 38 PA) has amplified the hype, as he’s risen 10 picks from his February ADP of 95, but he does only have one dinger. Sure, power takes time to stabilize, but my concern is that he’s not a no-doubter homer hitter who has never had a double-digit barrel rate (between 7% and 9%) each of the past four seasons, who is now moving to a park that was one of the best for lefty power in 2024 to a park that ranked third worst. So I’m thinking that maybe THE BAT X has a reason for projecting him for only 20 HR and a .258 AVG (they’re the most pessimistic, but no system projects him for more than 23 jacks. If you’re okay with that, why not just wait another 35 picks and get Vinnie Pasquantino (ADP: 110)? They actually project quite similarly, with Italian Breakfast having slightly fewer runs produced but a slightly better average.
Triston Casas (1B, Boston Red Sox) – ADP: 116
Top Comps: Colton Cowser, Elly De La Cruz, Ramón Laureano, Luke Raley, Jose Siri
By writing this, I’m definitely going to have to convince my friend to go missing if I want an invitation to Casas Bonita. These comps aren’t pretty, but – Hey, these comps aren’t bad, there’s a first-rounder in there! Okay, it’s still his best comp, but now imagine an Elly De La Cruz who runs like Triston Casas (first percentile sprint speed)… and then go back to the other comps (same for negating the speed of Cowser, Raley, and Siri). Eep. Now, granted, Casas played a partial season, and apparently had a car crash in his rib cage from swinging so hard, which still hasn’t been fully explained, by the way.
At his ADP in the early 100s, there are a lot of corner infielders I like more like the Statcast Affinity sleeper Matt Chapman and Jake Burger, so why doesn’t the hard-hitting Casas get the same love? While it certainly could be a sample size issue since Casas did only get 243 PA (212 AB) and hit .243 with 13 HRs, it seems perhaps we’re not taking his strikeout issues seriously enough, as his 32% K% last year was backed by poor peripherals with a career-worst 69% Contact% and terrible 32% CSW%. While he does draw walks and have power, it also wasn’t the extreme Matt Wallner-esque power, with a 45% HardHit% and a 13% Barrel% that looks good, but that’s per batted ball… His barrels/PA of 7% ranked 74th in the majors, right next to Andrew McCutchen. He also hit too many grounders for a slugger at 42% GB%.
Sure, with a full season of health and his playing time secure in a strong lineup, he certainly could bounce back to his better 2023 levels, but I feel like drafters at this ADP are assuming that bounce back and paying for it, not accounting for the risk. His ST numbers don’t reassure me, as he has 2 dingers in 40 PA but with a .188 AVG and a 35% K%, and even worse, his per-pitch metrics of a sub-Joey Gallo (can we still reference him?) 62% Contact% and 15% SwStr% that are considerably worse than even last year. Perhaps what’s pushing up his ADP is the fact that the next 1B off the board is the ailing Paul Goldschmidt (160 ADP), so really the lesson here is to pay up for a 1B by pick 100, or just wait and get my man Yandy Díaz before pick 200.
Xander Bogaerts (2B/SS, San Diego Padres) – ADP: 143
Top Comps: Giovanny Urshela, Vaughn Grissom, Will Brennan, Maikel Garcia, Luis Campusano
If you felt like Xander’s 2024 performance was not up to par, looking to “buy the dip” might have you hitting a double Bogey. I will say that although these comps are among the worst of all players, I seriously debated omitting him from this list, since he’s come up as a bust using Player Affinity just about every single year since I started doing this exercise, and he always somehow managed to beat the bearish predictions (well, until last year). But these comps just seem so, so bad, and given his down year, maybe he’s finally run out of tricks. Remember, a Maikel Garcia with Xander’s speed is still probably the best of this group, but not great.
It’s not especially hard to see why a Statcast-based tool doesn’t like him, as he’s throughout his career been a weak barreler, without a single double-digit barrel% in his 10-year career (well, unless you round up his 2021 season). Since that season though, his barrel rates have been steadily declining down to just 5% last year, with his HardHit% sliding down 10 points from a hearty 43% to an anemic 33%. While sometimes players choose to trade off batted ball quality for quantity, and it’s true that his Z-Contact% and Swinging Strike Rate (SwStr%) have been improving, it’s cancelled out by his increasing passivity at the plate, swinging only at 59% strikes the past two years, leaving him with a below-average 29% CSW% due to an extremely high rate of called strikes.
Projections all have him bouncing back about halfway to his solid 2023 season, but I think it’s a sucker’s bet, as Xander’s increasing zone rate (from 49% in 2021 up to 56% in 2024) indicate pitchers don’t fear him and will challenge him in the zone, and the home ballpark also does few favors. His ADP has actually risen five points from 148 in February up to 143, perhaps because he’s “healthy” and hitting .276 in 31 PA, but note his Contact% is WAY down, from 83% last year to just 63%, and a 16% SwStr% more than double his 7% SwStr% in 2024, and not a single homer or stolen base. I’ll drop a boldie here and say I think Otto Lopez (ADP: 341) will outproduce Xander Bogaerts next year, and yes, his Similarity comps are a bit better.
Masyn Winn (SS, St. Louis Cardinals) – ADP: 146
Top Comps: Abraham Toro, Bryson Stott, Miguel Amaya, Manny Margot, Nolan Arenado
I may not be in the Illuminati or in a fraternal secret society, but my 10+ drafted fantasy teams are FreeofMasyn. Winn has been one of the biggest March risers at shortstop, with an ADP going up from 160 in February to 146 in March drafts, likely at least partially due to the BSOHL hype that he claims he wants to steal 40 bases this year. Sure, that would make him exciting, and his best comp here, Bryson Stott (ADP: 156) shows that it could at least improve his floor even if the bat underwhelms.
But this was a guy who hit .267 with 15 HRs and 11 SBs in 637 PA in his age-22 season! Why would anyone expect his second go to be this bad? Well, first, remember that this only looks backwards and doesn’t project growth or decline or factor in his plus speed. But I do think it’s worth noting that it’s easy to miss that while he has decent raw power at his age (111 mph MaxEV), the HardHit% was pretty weak at 33%, with the Barrel% just under 4%. Yes, he does hit for a good contact rate, but like Bogaerts, he gives some of it away with a passive 61% Z-Swing%, and his 30% O-Swing% isn’t even so good. It’s worth noting that despite his rising cost, he’s having a rather dreadful spring with an .098 AVG, zero homers and just one SB, though I look at the faster-stabilizing per-pitch stats that show a lousy 69% Contact% and a continued passivity with his Swing% down to 44%. In a redraft non-OBP format, I really don’t get why he goes ahead of Jeremy Peña (ADP: 154), who has a better team context, better projections, and a much better spring (.412 with three HRs and one SB) though I’ll note that Peña’s affinity comps are not much better.
Dishonorable Mentions: Yainer Diaz, Vinny Pasquantino, Randy Arozarena, Lane Thomas, Parker Meadows, Brandon Marsh
“Remember, a Maikel Garcia with Xander’s speed is still probably the best of this group, but not great.”
I don’t think you meant to type that.