Every preseason, I use a rarely-used Statcast algorithm to try to detect potential values who I feel are not being properly valued. You can read the article for posterity here.
This article is a postmortem on my picks. Historically, I have been much better at predicting busts (which isn’t surprising, given entropy and all), and this year was no exception—but I did find two massive values that could be had at the last rounds of your draft that were big difference-makers. Let’s see how things shook out and laugh (and cry) at how some of my worst bold predictions look now.
Ben Rice (1B/C, New York Yankees) – ADP: 412
Top Comps: J.D. Martinez, Shea Langeliers, Pete Alonso, Christian Walker, Taylor Ward, Kyle Schwarber, Brent Rooker
Now we’re cooking with…a good hitter! We’ve had enough Rice puns for one year, okay? I loved the price of Rice, so I ended up with him in nearly every format (I even took him in October at a 530 ADP), even though in some cases I had to play him at 1B since Raleigh was my other most drafted player. His season line was impressive with a .255/.337/.499 line with 26 HR and three SB in 467 AB, but it really doesn’t tell the full story. He was maddening to roster in June and July as he started to lose playing time, but he turned it around quickly with a huge late-season homer barrage and batting average surge and never looked back. But also, he still way underperformed his excellent Statcast metrics, and many are listing him going into next year as a Top 5 catcher and Top 10 1B.
What is our lesson? I think it’s not to buy too much into the narrative, people assumed that once he cooled off with a big slump after a big splash debut that he was a flash in the pan, but the barrel rate, K/BB, and pulled FB% all indicated that he deserved better in 2024. You probably won’t get any kind of discount on that entering 2026 despite the Statcast underperformance, and while I’m intrigued still, focus on trying to find the next Ben Rice.
VERDICT: HIT (1 for 1)
Michael Toglia (1B, Colorado Rockies) – ADP: 167
Top Comps: Brent Rooker, Teoscar Hernández, Austin Riley, Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso
Those who wanted to get risky at first base ended up in quite the Toglia Imbroglio. He started off with a horrendous April thanks to a 40% K% that he never quite recovered from… after a demotion and a dead cat bounce upon his call-up, you may have had a one-week (or half-week) window to flip him at a discount before his bat returned to garbage and he was demoted again for good.
What’s the lesson here? Be wary of late-blooming rookies with a big year but big strikeout rates, even if Statcast doesn’t care. I know, there’s Brent Rooker, but he’s an exception. Fortunately, my love for later ADP gem Yandy Díaz (even though Affinity didn’t like him) kept me from getting Togs in all but a few leagues. What a massive bust.
VERDICT: MISS (1 for 2)
Jorge Soler (OF, Los Angeles Angels) – ADP: 217
Top Comps: Matt Olson, Ian Happ, Christian Walker, Matt Chapman
I loved Soler as a bounce-back candidate, but sometimes you think you’re buying the dip, and then the real dip happens. For the first year in his career, he simply stopped hitting the ball with authority, as he had significant declines in his MaxEV, barrel rate, and most contact metrics, and without any improvement in plate discipline to compensate. It seemed perhaps he was dealing with lower back inflammation for a while before, in late July it finally took him out for the season, finishing with a pitiful .215 AVG and 12 HR in 279 AB that got him cut even in 15-team leagues.
Lesson learned here? I guess, given that he’s 33, to not get overly enamored by older players with good statcast rates, as I also got burned this year by making the same mistake with Marcell Ozuna, since another year drags things in the wrong direction, especially for a player with as extensive an injury history as Soler. Granted, I’ll likely learn nothing and try to buy the dip next year if he looks healthy in spring, since I’m guessing the cost will plummet to an ADP of 300 or even later.
VERDICT: MISS (1 for 3)
Michael Conforto (OF, Los Angeles Dodgers) – ADP: 272
Top Comps: Rafael Devers, Bryce Harper, Matt Olson, Brandon Lowe, Jake Burger
I made the mistake of buying into the Dodgers hype even though Conforto was a player I historically avoided due to his injuries. He did manage to stay healthy-ish for most of the season, but he had a horrific start, which seemed to be a lot of bad luck, but it simply never turned around, keeping him just under the Mendoza line with a cringe-inducing .199/.305/.333 line with 12 HR and just one SB in 418 AB.
What was the lesson here? I guess not to assume that just because a smart team acquired a mediocre hitter, it doesn’t necessarily mean they can “fix” him. It’s more likely that the injury-friendly Dodgers mostly hoped he’d just be healthy once the playoffs rolled around. I still think Conforto was also unlucky and could be a value in super deep leagues, but I still think I’d pass, as he could easily get stuck in a part-time or backup role next year without a change, especially if on the Dodgers.
VERDICT: MISS (1 for 4)
Jerar Encarnación (OF, San Francisco Giants) – ADP: 377
Top Comps: Jonathan Aranda, Mark Vientos, Heliot Ramos, Jesús Sánchez
It was a rough year for both Encarnacions, but in Jerar’s case, it was an injury-plagued washout season. Just as his ADP jumped from 559 to 377, he broke his left hand at the end of the spring and never found his footing afterward, before hitting the IL with an oblique strain just a few days later. What he did hit hardly impressed with a .200/.214/.364 line with two HR and one SB in just 55 AB, but it doesn’t mean much to me.
Lesson learned? Nothing, really, other than you can never predict injury, but once it happens, all bets are off for later production. He’ll be 28 entering next season, so I don’t think he’s a great rebound target, but given the injury years, I’d still be interested as a late power gamble towards the end of Draft Champions (50-round draft & hold).
VERDICT: MISS (1 for 5)
Trevor Larnach (OF, Minnesota Twins) – ADP: 348
Top Comps: Bryan Reynolds, Bryce Harper, Dominic Smith, Wyatt Langford
The funny thing is that while he had a bad year, he was less of a fantasy disappointment than every single player on this list other than Dominic Smith.
Larnach was one of those players I bandied on about but didn’t draft anywhere, because at the end of the day, I just felt kinda meh about him, and that’s more or less how he ended up. But at a 348 ADP, he basically gave you exactly what you paid for. He hit .250 with 17 HR and four SB in 503 AB, which was right in line with most of his projections, making him a player that was solid roster spackle in 15-teamers but an easy drop in 12-team. And hey, if you took him instead of other Twins sleeper Matt Wallner, you’re probably still happy with your choice. But while not a bust, he failed as a sleeper.
What can we learn? I guess not to get too excited about platoon players getting a chance at a larger role, because the extra non-platoon at-bats can actually hurt their overall value. And I guess also not to necessarily project growth when they’re at instead of approaching their peak years.
VERDICT: MISS (1 for 6)
Tyler Soderstrom (1B, Athletics) – ADP: 275
Top Comps: Teoscar Hernández, Mark Vientos, Oneil Cruz, Rafael Devers, Elly De La Cruz
“I expect at least 25 homers… Based on what I expect of his stats, and if he were a catcher, I’d have him above Will Smith and just below Sal, Cal, and Willson. And as a first baseman, I expect him to outproduce just about every first baseman after pick 225 or so”. Not too shabby, me.
Sodastream had pop and fizz early on before becoming flat, but still provided strong overall value at his ADP. While he was the king of April, reaching nine homers before anyone else, he slumped before switching gears and then becoming more average-focused. But for a 275 ADP, you got an excellent overall player with a .276/.346/.474 line with 25 homers, 93 RBI, and perhaps most surprisingly, eight stolen bases to boot. Aside from 15 points of batting average, that’s a better line than Freddie Freeman, and for someone who still qualified at catcher in some leagues.
What’s the lesson here? I guess it’s to pay attention when a young hitter who struggled in their first go is still young and making quiet improvements under the hood, especially when playing time is mostly guaranteed. In hindsight, it should’ve seemed obvious given his pedigree, that he’s 23, and moving to a hitter’s haven (though we didn’t know how much of one it was), but people still get too cautious when they say he hit .233 with just nine homers in 2024 (granted, just in 189 AB). Prospect growth isn’t linear. I think he may have less hype than lots of the other breakout 1B for 2026, and I’ll be happy with any discount, since I think he’s already a Top 10 1B and could even be Top 5 by next year.
VERDICT: HIT (2 for 7)
Honorable Mentions: Jonathan Aranda (hit), Iván Herrera (hit), Jesús Sánchez (miss), J.D. Martinez (N/A)
