We’ve begun the weekly tradition here at Pitcher List where I rank the Top 100 Starting Pitchers in fantasy baseball.
Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 12:00pm EST as I live-stream its creation each week!
As always, make sure to read the notes as there are many changes that have good reasons behind them, and please consider that these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.
Ranking Notes
- This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
- Seriously. Read the notes.
- We’re about two starts in for most starters and it’s too early to shift around the Top 25 starters.
- …except for Corbin Burnes one spot. He’s been so dominant and it does look sustainable. The only reason he’s still hovering #20 is his questionable depth through the full year. Let’s hope the Brewers allow him to accrue more than 160 innings in 2021.
- I shifted Tier 3 into a larger grouping and did the same for Tier 4, pushing up Jose Berrios, Sandy Alcantara, and Lance McCullers. Each has made improvements this year (Berrios’ higher velocity, Alcantara’s command, McCullers’ slider) that should make them secure inside your rosters all season.
- Despite lower velocity from Stephen Strasburg, I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt after just one start. Hopefully, he can ramp up the velocity as we keep setting and forgetting
- Starting Tier 5 is Patrick Corbin who certainly didn’t look like a sturdy ace in his debut start. However, it was the Dodgers after an extended break on the COVID-IL and was sitting a touch above his 2020 velocity. His drop is less about his own skills and more about the others advancing above and below him.
- While many were clamoring for Joe Musgrove to get a sizeable boost this week, it’ll be hard for Musgrove – and many inside of this tier – to jump up the ranks. There are simply too many aces with good track records to hurdle over.
- Sticking with Tier 5, I’ve elected to push John Means and Kevin Gausman into the Top 40. Means was able to succeed despite a pair of tough opponents, displaying his strong changeup of 2019 while improving his velocity in his second start. Get ready for an exciting two-start week. With Gausman, he recovered his fastball velocity in his second start back to the 2020 spike, quelling concerns I had about sustainability.
- Don’t be alarmed about the -2 for Pablo Lopez – I just wanted Joe Musgrove and Julio Urias to get some love.
- In Tier 6, Chris Paddack takes another fall. We’re two starts in and he hasn’t quite gotten up to speed with his four-seamer. There’s still time to recover against weak opponents and still worth your starts, but he may continue his descent if that fastball doesn’t show up.
- I know, I know, you’re concerned about Corey Kluber. In the preseason we talked about how we didn’t want to overreact to a poor April – he’s notorious for them! – but here we are, two starts in, and Kluber has been disappointing to say the least. His fastball is hovering 90 mph instead of 91/92 and while it’s far too early to throw in the towel, I can’t help but push him down a few knocks for his early struggles. Like Corbin and Paddack, he has a TIARA where the moment we see it all click, all our fears will go away. Here’s to that moment coming soon.
- Joining Tier 6 is, I know, I’m as shocked as you are, Trevor Rogers. I’ve intently watched his first two games and I’m incredibly impressed not only with his 96+ mph velocity, but the command of his fastballs and pairing them with changeups and sliders. This is the early pickup of the season and while there’s always a chance he’s off your team in the next few weeks, I’m willing to wager he sticks for the year.
- Ending the tier is Jordan Montgomery who disappointed against the Rays. Stick with him, he has the skills to be a solid add through the year, just not the same ceiling as Rogers.
- Tier 7 is when it starts to get a bit wild. Yes, I had to blow everything up and start from scratch, essentially, as we’re at the point where it’s a waiver-wire frenzy and guys are getting added and dropped without thought. Here we have some guys who could provide some stability, including Dustin May who still has a firm hold on the #5 spot in Dodgerville.
- Carlos Rodon isn’t the golden standard for stability, but his increased velocity and wonderful situation in Chicago make him a must-add. Let’s hope it sticks as he gets more innings.
- Jake Odorizzi and Eduardo Rodriguez make it back to The List this week as they returned to their rotations. Eduardo featured a solid changeup last time out and could be a rock through the year, while Odorizzi will join the team against the Tigers. Start Odorizzi, he’s been ramping up at the alternate site.
- Yusei Kikuchi also gets a bump after pitching well against the Twins. He’s in a good place and while there’s risk – get used to that word – he’s a fun one to chase right now.
- Tier 8 is a short one, essentially with solid Toby arms that you should be considering before the next tier of fun, wild, and chaos. Chris Bassitt gets the nod here despite poor underlying numbers in his first two outings. He had poor matchups and now gets to see the green pastures of Arizona and Detroit. Yes, I know Arizona has few of them, just go with the emotion.
- Zach Eflin takes a small tumble as his second start came without the curveball that propelled him in parts of 2020 and in his debut outing. It’s likely going to be a tumultuous ride with and without the pitch for the year ahead. Good luck.
- I’m not sure what to do with Shohei Ohtani. On one hand, he should be pitching this weekend and still carries immense strikeout upside. On the other, it’s a headache tracking his starts and his command needs a heavy dose of polish. The reward is worth the risk right now, but don’t hold on too tight if there are better options out there.
- Triston McKenzie returns today, but he gets the White Sox followed by the Reds and I wouldn’t start him for either one…and likely not the Yankees after that. BUT, then we can reap the rewards and enjoy his strong repertoire.
- I gave some love to Andrew Heaney who has been throwing harder early in the season. He’s still volatile, but he provides more production than those below, even when the longballs happen (WHIP and strikeouts are still a thing!).
- Entering Tier 10 is a slew of new names as those below are mostly arms who we chased early and have become questionable holds. Taijuan Walker, Sean Manaea, Zach Davies (please find your changeup again), and Nathan Eovaldi aren’t as exciting as the others but could be solid ratio plays.
- Many newcomers are here as they can become speculative adds moving forward. Anthony DeSclafani gets the Marlins twice and could capitalize. Jose De Leon has earned plenty of whiffs on his sinkers and this may work. Dean Kremer has a great two-start week, Steven Matz has had a solid changeup to kick off the year, and we’re getting our first glimpse of Robbie Ray tonight after a spring showcasing more strikes than usual.
- Tier 11 is a touch like Tier 10, just without as much conviction. Carlos Martinez falls based on his lower velocity and few whiffs on sliders and changeups. Mike Minor also disappointed with a slower fastball and a worse changeup (and a poor schedule ahead). I’d love to see both of them rise up next week.
- Luke Weaver makes his season debut after his astounding performance against the Reds on Sunday. Unfortunately, it came without a third pitch, but his command of fastballs up and changeups down worked magic. It could be something that sticks.
- Tier 12 holds a ton of risk with arms that can be used for a stream or as a possible stash if they can put things together. Huascar Ynoa gets a two-start week after flashing improved velocity and a filthy slider and should be on your radar. Kyle Gibson also gets two reasonable starts and after dominating the Jays, he’s a decent option.
- I’ve elected to lower Adbert Alzolay as he seems a little too far away to trust in the short term. Please prove me wrong tonight.
- I’ve also added Rich Hill and Taylor Widener to The List. Hill was given a leash of six frames, while Widener has flashes with his fastball at 96 mph and slider diving away from bats.
- In the final tier, we have backup Tobys who I’d only consider for the right start. Bruce Zimmerman is the most intriguing of the lot after his BSB approach in his first outing. The second wasn’t as sharp, but it may return and he could be of value in the short term against the Marlins.
Pitcher | Reason |
---|---|
Zac Gallen | IL with hairline fracture. Top 15 SP |
Carlos Carrasco | IL with hamstring injury. Top 20 SP |
Sonny Gray | IL with back injury. Top 25 SP |
Dinelson Lamet | IL with elbow injury. Top 25 SP |
Mike Soroka | IL with torn Achilles. Top 30 SP |
Sixto Sanchez | Demoted + IL with shoulder injury. Top 40 SP |
Chris Sale | IL from TJS. Top 10 SP |
Noah Syndergaard | IL from TJS. Top 15 SP |
Luis Severino | IL from TJS. Top 15 SP |
Framber Valdez | IL with finger injury. Top 50 SP |
Michael Lorenzen | IL with shoulder injury. Top 80 SP |
Elieser Hernandez | Biceps Tendon injury. Top 80 SP |
Tony Gonsolin | IL with shoulder inflammation. Top 80 SP |
Spencer Turnbull | COVID IL. Top 80 SP |
Cristian Javier | Demoted for Jake Odorizzi. Top 80 SP |
A.J. Puk | IL with a biceps injury |
David Price | Pitching in relief + ineffective |
Garrett Richards | Struggled vs. Orioles, can’t trust him now |
Chris Archer | Dealing with an arm injury |
Daulton Jefferies | Cole Irvin has the spot |
Caleb Smith | No longer in rotation |
Madison Bumgarner | Tough schedule + not at 91 mph |
Tejay Antone | Injury means he’s currently out of the rotation |
Josh Lindblom | Does not have a rotation spot |
Alec Mills | Does not have a rotation spot |
Domingo German | Demoted, will be back soon. Top 70 SP |
Jose Quintana | Not sure he’s good enough |
Randy Dobnak | Does not have a rotation spot |
Jake Arrieta | Not sure he’s good enough |
J.A. Happ | Not sure he’s good enough |
Tanner Houck | Demoted to make room for Eduardo. Top 70 SP |
James Paxton | IL with forearm strain. Top 60 SP |
Adrian Morejon | IL with forearm strain. Top 80 SP |
Mike Foltynewicz | Not sure he’s good enough |
Martin Perez | Not sure he’s good enough |
Brad Keller | Not sure he’s good enough |
Danny Duffy | Not sure he’s good enough |
Ross Stripling | Tough schedule, could enter next week |
My rule for moving from the IL back to the rankings: If they are confirmed to return before the next edition of The List, then I will add them.
All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:
Rank | Pitcher | Badges | Change |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Jacob deGromT1 | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
2 | Shane Bieber | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
3 | Gerrit Cole | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
4 | Yu DarvishT2 | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
5 | Lucas Giolito | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
6 | Aaron Nola | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
7 | Walker Buehler | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
8 | Max Scherzer | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
9 | Trevor Bauer | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb | - |
10 | Clayton Kershaw | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
11 | Kenta MaedaT3 | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
12 | Luis Castillo | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
13 | Jack Flaherty | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
14 | Brandon Woodruff | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
15 | Blake Snell | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | - |
16 | Lance Lynn | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
17 | Tyler Glasnow | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips | - |
18 | Corbin Burnes | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | +1 |
19 | Zack WheelerT4 | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -1 |
20 | Hyun Jin Ryu | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused | - |
21 | Max Fried | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
22 | Kyle Hendricks | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts Ratio Focused | - |
23 | Zach Plesac | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
24 | Stephen Strasburg | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
25 | Charlie Morton | Ace Potential Injury Risk Quality Starts | - |
26 | José Berríos | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +1 |
27 | Sandy Alcantara | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +1 |
28 | Lance McCullers Jr. | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips | +1 |
29 | Patrick CorbinT5 | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -3 |
30 | Zack Greinke | Ace Potential Quality Starts | - |
31 | Jesús Luzardo | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | - |
32 | Julio Urías | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +1 |
33 | Joe Musgrove | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +1 |
34 | Pablo López | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | -2 |
35 | Tyler Mahle | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | - |
36 | Dylan Bundy | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +2 |
37 | Aaron Civale | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused | -1 |
38 | Ian Anderson | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Ratio Focused | -1 |
39 | John Means | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +4 |
40 | Kevin Gausman | Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused | +5 |
41 | Frankie Montas Jr.T6 | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +1 |
42 | Jameson Taillon | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -1 |
43 | Corey Kluber | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -3 |
44 | Chris Paddack | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -5 |
45 | José Urquidy | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips | -1 |
46 | Marcus Stroman | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused | - |
47 | Trevor Rogers | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +17 |
48 | Jordan Montgomery | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option | +1 |
49 | Dustin MayT7 | Ace Potential Low Ips Ratio Focused | +9 |
50 | Dallas Keuchel | Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused | +3 |
51 | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +5 | |
52 | Carlos Rodón | Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +19 |
53 | Jake Odorizzi | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Streaming Option | +UR |
54 | Yusei Kikuchi | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +9 |
55 | Eduardo Rodriguez | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | +UR |
56 | Chris BassittT8 | Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused | +9 |
57 | Marco Gonzales | Quality Starts Toby | -3 |
58 | Ryan Yarbrough | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +1 |
59 | Zach Eflin | Ace Potential Quality Starts Toby Streaming Option | -9 |
60 | Shohei OhtaniT9 | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -13 |
61 | Mitch Keller | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +8 |
62 | Triston McKenzie | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | -11 |
63 | Freddy Peralta | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | +4 |
64 | Andrew Heaney | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +12 |
65 | Matthew Boyd | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +3 |
66 | Michael Pineda | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | -6 |
67 | Taijuan WalkerT10 | Quality Starts Toby Streaming Option | +10 |
68 | Sean Manaea | Injury Risk Ratio Focused | +11 |
69 | Anthony DeSclafani | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +UR |
70 | José De León | Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +UR |
71 | Nathan Eovaldi | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +7 |
72 | Zach Davies | Quality Starts Toby | -17 |
73 | Logan Webb | Strikeout Upside Streaming Option | -7 |
74 | Dean Kremer | Strikeout Upside Streaming Option | +UR |
75 | Steven Matz | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +UR |
76 | Robbie Ray | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | +UR |
77 | Justin DunnT11 | Strikeout Upside Streaming Option | -2 |
78 | Carlos Martínez | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -17 |
79 | Dane Dunning | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +1 |
80 | Tarik Skubal | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -10 |
81 | Luke Weaver | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +UR |
82 | Germán Márquez | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -9 |
83 | Mike Minor | Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused | -26 |
84 | Griffin CanningT12 | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +2 |
85 | Wade Miley | Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +4 |
86 | Adbert Alzolay | Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | -12 |
87 | Dylan Cease | Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | +3 |
88 | JT Brubaker | Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +4 |
89 | Huascar Ynoa | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +UR |
90 | Logan Allen | Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +5 |
91 | Kyle Gibson | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +UR |
92 | Rich Hill | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | +UR |
93 | Taylor Widener | Strikeout Upside Streaming Option | +UR |
94 | Nick Pivetta | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +6 |
95 | Casey Mize | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -2 |
96 | Brady SingerT13 | Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused Streaming Option | -14 |
97 | Joey Lucchesi | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Toby Streaming Option | - |
98 | Bruce Zimmermann | Toby Streaming Option | -10 |
99 | Adam Wainwright | Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | -1 |
100 | Matt Shoemaker | Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | -15 |
Labels Legend
Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire – Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
Really tempted to drop Marcus Stroman for Trevor Rogers. Your rankings have them next to one another, so I imagine it’s splitting hairs?
I would. Stroman has never been worth anything. Rogers at least might be.
Surprised to see Peralta so low. Is it more or less his BB rate? Is that what’s holding him back from entering potentially the 6th or 7th tier?
It really is crazy how terrible the overall SP landscape has become. It should surprise nobody that de-emphasizing starting pitcher development leads to this point. Tier two is what used to be tier three type talent. Tier three have major question marks in many cases. The guys in the top 30 are just scary. There is also clearly not a crop of heir apparent rising through the ranks. When I look through the overall list it is littered with guys that I think are way too high and way too low which is just all part of the volatility of the decline of pitching overall. You hit scrub territory well before you reach the end of the list. It would be good to recognize what direction this is going. The game has shifted from the best players in the world playing the game at the highest level to incompetent, painful micro-managing the players out of their jobs. Unfortunately the only way out is to start pointing at the people ruining the game with no benefit to anyone other than themselves.
Where do you see Blue Jays pitcher Nate Pearson land on The List once he’s back?
Surprised not to see Junis. The new cutter is sliiiiick.
Tejay Antone appears to be healthy after last night’s near 4-inning save. Where would he rank on The List and when will he be a starter this year?
I am also wondering about this exact same question
Nick where is the love for Burnes? Yes small sample size but between last year and this year numbers right there with Cole and Jacob. Yes inn limit but right now he is top 5.
I have him the #2 starting pitcher, right behind deGrom. He’s been absolutely dominant over enough starts for it not to be a fluke.
Seems low for German Marquez