The List 8/10 – Ranking The Top 100 Starting Pitchers Every Monday

We’re back in the regular groove of Monday afternoon updates of The List! As always, make sure to read the notes as there are many changes that have good reasons behind them.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• With Stephen Strasburg returning from injury, please note the auto (-1) that was nullified by Charlie Morton heading to the IL…until about the 30s where I had to remove Zach Plesac for being stupid. I don’t know how much time Plesac will miss, but it’s at least one start if not more.
• I also elected to move Walker Buehler To #5 after throwing 87 pitches in his latest game. There’s little reason to think he can’t be the arm we expected now that he’s fully stretched out

 

• The Top 20 saw some major shifts with Clayton Kershaw showcasing poor command a slightly lower velocity in his second start. I think he’s still great, but I was too excited about the new velocity last week.
• Welcome to the Ohio party as Indians and Reds pitchers make up six of the Top 10 pitchers. What a world we live in.

 

• I also docked Jack Flaherty and Patrick Corbin simply because their teams have missed plenty of games. I imagine Corbin will be a little rusty relative to the field for a week or two, while we’re still unclear of when we’ll see Flaherty back, let alone how much an understanding of how many pitches he’ll throw in that game.
• After watching Chris Paddack once again fail to get into a groove where strikeouts were flowing, I’m questioning if he belonged in the Top 20 discussion, and brought him down to #21. Still solid and always startable, but not as impactful as other options.

 

• Tier four saw some major risers and fallers. I can’t ignore how well German Marquez is pitching with his slider looking like it did in 2018, soaring his rank in the Top 30 starters. Jesus Luzardo not only is healthy and in the rotation, but hinting 90 pitches as well, and his ability suggests major success in the future.
• On the downside, Zack Wheeler hasn’t unlocked his potential like I hoped he would, failing to go north-south nor earn sustained success with his slider. I still think that future is ahead, but it’s not there at the moment. Blake Snell also saw a tumble as he’s yet to hit 60 pitches in a start thus far. I can’t ignore other arms who are doing more in that roster spot.

 

• We have the fun tier in Tier 5, as I elevated a pair of Dodgers arms in Dustin May and Ross Stripling. Sure, there is Dodgeritis likely at play, but both of these pitchers have solid schedules pair with a fantastic offense behind them. Their floors are well above most in the following tier + with each start they get a longer leash in the rotation. With Alex Wood unlikely to return as a starter, I’d feel confident with them in my staff through the year
• Yes, Dylan Bundy continues his ascension, though I wonder if this is his peak with a tougher schedule ahead of him. Nevertheless, his changes are real and he deserved the love.

 

• Tier 6 is where it got incredibly tough for me. It’s a group of arms who are struggling mightily but over time should improve drastically (Jose Berrios, Luke Weaver, Robbie Ray, Garrett Richards), mixed with pitchers who are helping in all leagues and could do so through the full year (Dallas Keuchel, Masahiro Tanaka, Chris Bassitt)
• Then there’s also John Means who I simply can’t get enough of. Watching 95+ mph velocity paired with an elite changeup and breaking pitches that flash brilliance is everything you want from a southpaw known for his command. He has yet to have that full breakout start, but his stuff suggests it’s as soon as his next outing.

 

• No, I’m not sure what to do with James Paxton. While Sunday featured an 11 strikeout performance, it also came with his depressed 92 mph velocity and secondary stuff that dreamt of days gone by. I’d sell high if I could, but in most cases hold and see if he can come close to repeating.
• We also can welcome back Jake Odorizzi to The List after making his season debut. His Saturday outing didn’t come with the standard red paint at the top of the zone, but it came with 71 pitches and I imagine we’ll see 85 or so that better represent Odorizzi in future starts as he warms up.

 

• Anthony DeSclafani also returned and had his slider of old that makes us excited to own him. While he may end up being just a Toby, he has a lovely schedule as a Cincinnati Red and deserves to be owned in most leagues.
• The same goes for Randy Dobnak who doesn’t have strikeout stuff, but his ability to provide excellent ratios while an absurd offense supports him against weak lineups is a recipe for major fantasy value.

 

• I was excited to see Kyle Gibson feature his slider more than ever over the weekend and it may turn into a strong 2020 if he continues to throw his best pitch more often. Play the matchups right and this will be strong.
• Last week we were in the dark about Josh Lindblom’s next outing, but we ended up seeing a decent start with a brand new slider that has potential to become a legit whiff pitch. At #61, it’s the perfect spot to chase him.

 

• A slew of left-handers saw major drops in Tier 7. All three of Mike Minor, Andrew Heaney, and Sean Manaea have shown decreased velocity on their fastballs, leading to poor outings. I’m concerned across the board as none of them had elite velocity in the first place, with Manaea having the highest floor, but Heaney carrying the highest upside, and Minor somewhere in the middle.
• A pair of rookies close out the tier in Brady Singer and Spencer Howard. I like Singer’s floor a little more, especially with consistent playing time, but if Howard can dial up his fastball often while earning consistency with his three secondary pitches, he has the chance to zoom up the ranks quickly.

 

• Tier 8 is a mix of upside and floor with intersecting trends that could continue in opposite directions. Pablo Lopez carries a phenomenal changeup and well-commanded heater, but the approach and lack of a strong third option are preventing him from pushing Top 60. Touki Toussaint flashed his potential with a nine strikeout effort, but his overall command is questionable and may rear its ugly head plenty in the weeks ahead.
• I was sad dropping both Tyler Chatwood and Yusei Kikuchi this week as neither built upon their high ceilings established the previous week. Chatwood has a higher chance of reclaiming his rank given Kikuchi’s tougher schedule, but both still retained the skills they flashed in their recent outings. Keep an eye on both of them

 

• Tier 9 is just…sad. Joe Musgrove missed his start over the weekend with an ankle injury, though his performances on the field leave plenty to be desired. If he were on track to start without a hitch, I’d likely have placed him at #65, but the extra haze lowers him a tier.
• Then there’s Madison Bumgarner and Matthew Boyd. Bumgarner’s drop in velocity paired with back spasms forced me to drop him massively, especially when we don’t know when he’ll start next. His stuff is speaking more to a Toby than ever before. Meanwhile, Boyd has lost all semblance on his first-half 2019 self, failing to get a feel for his slider and failing to command his fastball. It could click in a hurry, but it’s not worth the risk in the meantime.

 

• Tier 10 features Chad Kuhl, who may get an extended look in the rotation in Steven Brault’s place as he carries 95+ velocity and a wicked slider. Something to consider if you’re chasing upside.
• I also added Framber Valdez simply because of being in Houston and getting a chance for Wins. Don’t trust this for long, though, there is a low floor ready to show itself.

 

• There’s also Nathan Eovaldi getting a boost after earning nearly 20 whiffs on Sunday, something he hadn’t come close to previously this season. I’m a little skeptical, but he deserved a bump to #81 for it.
• I added a tier just for MacKenzie Gore and Casey Mize as we wait to hear more. They would jump up to the 60s if they got the call, but for now they are worth the stash above the Tobys in Tier 12.

 

• Lastly, we have the bottom of the barrel in Tier 12:
  • Brandon Bielak gets the add for having good enough stuff to survive through five innings (Thanks Dusty Baker!) and secure a few Wins as long as he’s in the rotation
  • Kevin Gausman is earning too many whiffs for his own good, but has a stupid tough schedule. Proceed with caution.
  • Alex Cobb is feeling his splitter at the moment, but that could fade at any moment.
  • Patrick Sandoval and Justus Sheffield each have intriguing upside, but are also incredibly volatile. Not the worst hail mary arms to start.
  • Kicking Tyler Mahle out of the rotation was Wade Miley who could be a cheap Win earner on the Reds
  • He didn’t have the 95+ mph velocity, but Brad Keller has returned and had excellent fastball/slider separation. There could be something there.
  • Wade LeBlanc and Tommy Milone are feeling their changeups at the moment and could surprise in good matchups
  • Lastly, Zach Davies is not a terrible Toby with the Padres offense behind him.

 

 

All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:

Rank	Pitcher	Team	Badges	Change
1	Gerrit ColeT1	NYY	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
2	Jacob deGrom	TEX	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
3	Max Scherzer	TOR	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
4	Shane Bieber	TOR	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
5	Walker Buehler T2	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+3
6	Mike Clevinger	PIT	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
7	Sonny Gray	BOS	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
8	Luis Castillo	SEA	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
9	Carlos Carrasco		Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+7
10	Trevor Bauer	LAD	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	+7
11	Stephen Strasburg		Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+UR
12	Aaron Nola	PHI	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
13	Patrick Corbin	TOR	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-6
14	Jack Flaherty	DET	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-8
15	Lance Lynn T3		Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
16	Clayton Kershaw	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-6
17	Yu Darvish	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
18	Lucas Giolito	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
19	Kenta Maeda	SD	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+2
20	Tyler Glasnow	LAD	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside	+3
21	Chris Paddack	MIA	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-9
22	Zac Gallen T4	ARI	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	+2
23	Frankie Montas	SD	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
24	Brandon Woodruff	MIL	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
25	Dinelson Lamet		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+4
26	Aaron Civale		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+4
27	Germán Márquez	SD	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+13
28	Jesús Luzardo	PHI	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	+15
29	Zack Wheeler	PHI	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-15
30	Blake Snell	LAD	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-8
31	Zack Greinke		Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts	-4
32	Julio Urías T5		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
33	Max Fried	NYY	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	-
34	Dylan Bundy		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+11
35	Spencer Turnbull	KC	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+7
36	Kyle Hendricks		Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-
37	Dustin May	STL	Low Ips Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	+22
38	Ross Stripling		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+28
39	Ryan Yarbrough T6	NYY	Toby Ratio Focused	+2
40	José Berríos	TOR	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-12
41	Griffin Canning	SD	Ace Potential Injury Risk Cherry Bomb	+5
42	Lance McCullers Jr.	HOU	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips	-4
43	Nate Pearson	HOU	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option	+6
44	Hyun Jin Ryu		Ace Potential Injury Risk Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+9
45	Dallas Keuchel		Toby Ratio Focused	+17
46	John Means		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+22
47	Masahiro Tanaka	SD	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+13
48	Chris Bassitt	BAL	Strikeout Upside Toby Streaming Option	+15
49	Jake Odorizzi		Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips	+UR
50	James Paxton		Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+17
51	Adrian Houser	SF	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+6
52	Jordan Montgomery	TEX	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option Stash Option	-2
53	Garrett Richards		Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-6
54	Luke Weaver	NYM	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	-17
55	Robbie Ray	SF	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-4
56	Anthony DeSclafani T7		Strikeout Upside Toby	+17
57	Randy Dobnak	SEA	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+20
58	Mike Minor		Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-14
59	Andrew Heaney		Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-20
60	Kyle Gibson		Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+22
61	Josh Lindblom		Injury Risk Quality Starts Playing Time Question Toby Ratio Focused	+24
62	Sean Manaea	NYM	Ace Potential Injury Risk Ratio Focused	-8
63	Brady Singer	CIN	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	+9
64	Spencer Howard		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	+6
65	Pablo López T8	MIN	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+4
66	Jon Gray		Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+15
67	Touki Toussaint	LAA	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+12
68	Tyler Chatwood		Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-13
69	Yusei Kikuchi	LAA	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Toby Streaming Option	-13
70	Corbin Burnes	ARI	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-6
71	Kyle Freeland	COL	Cherry Bomb Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+3
72	Steven Matz	TB	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-11
73	David Peterson	NYM	Playing Time Question Toby Streaming Option	+14
74	Joe Musgrove T9	SD	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-26
75	Madison Bumgarner		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-40
76	Matthew Boyd	CHC	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-18
77	Kris Bubic T10	KC	Toby Streaming Option	+3
78	Cristian Javier	HOU	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-7
79	Dylan Cease	TOR	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+4
80	Chad Kuhl			+UR
81	Nathan Eovaldi	TEX	Strikeout Upside Toby Streaming Option	+13
82	Framber Valdez	DET	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
83	MacKenzie Gore T11	TEX	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	+UR
84	Casey Mize	DET	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	+UR
85	Brandon Bielak T12	HOU	Playing Time Question Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
86	Alec Mills		Toby Streaming Option	+3
87	Kevin Gausman	TOR	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
88	Alex Cobb	SD	Toby Streaming Option	+UR
89	Asher Wojciechowski		Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-13
90	Patrick Sandoval	BOS	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
91	Justus Sheffield		Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
92	Wade Miley		Toby Streaming Option	+UR
93	Brad Keller	PHI		+UR
94	Merrill Kelly	ARI	Toby Streaming Option	-1
95	Marco Gonzales	SD	Toby Streaming Option	+1
96	Matt Shoemaker		Injury Risk Toby Streaming Option	+2
97	Wade LeBlanc		Toby Streaming Option	+UR
98	Taijuan Walker	PHI	Toby Streaming Option	-6
99	Zach Davies		Toby Streaming Option	+UR
100	Tommy Milone		Toby Streaming Option	+UR

Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)