The PLV Power Report: Waiver Wire Edition

Welcome to the PLV Power Report! Here, we examine hitter performance by utilizing Power+, a PLV+ metric that indexes a player’s power based on the characteristics of the pitch, i.e., count, location, velocity, induced vertical break, height-adjusted vertical approach angle, and other factors. Essentially, we’re searching for players with upside who are adding power based on the expectation of the individual pitches they see.

For example, say a hitter hits a well-located fastball on the outside corner that might typically coax a weak line drive, but instead, they belt a home run the opposite way; they’ll get a much better power grade for that outcome. Conversely, if that hitter sees a hanging changeup over the heart of the plate, or another pitch that would normally be crushed, and instead pops up to short, they’ll get a much lower score for the outcome. The power metric is unique because it provides a more intuitive way to assess player performance by accounting for the quality of each pitch they see. In other words, it’s a good way to check if a player is over- or underperforming by adding context. Note that Power+, like PLV+ metrics, is normalized to 100 and generally becomes more meaningful after around 75 BBE (batted ball events).

If you’re new to the PLV metrics, you can find Nick’s primer here.

With the MLB trade deadline gone and the deadline passed in most fantasy leagues, too, it is starting to feel like crunch time. This week, we will rummage through the waiver wire in search of hitters who could help you keep pace in home runs. Note, I’m focusing on players who have at least 75 BBE, so you won’t see newcomers here like Jakob Marsee, Luke Keaschall, or Tyler Locklear.

Note: PLV metrics are current through Sunday, August 10th.

Catcher

First Base

A big game at Coors Field last Sunday ignited Spencer Horwitz’s roster rate. He has a clear role as Pitt’s leadoff man against RHP, but his 95 Power+ isn’t too exciting. If you are taking a chance on a platoon bat, Romy González might be a little more interesting. The 28-year-old righty has been extremely productive (139 wRC+ in 208 PAs), and his 120 Power+ and 118 Process+ indicate a pretty good ceiling if you are willing to gamble on him earning more playing time.

Ryan Mountcastle is having a year to forget, hitting .244 with a 75 wRC+ through 211 PAs. However, he returned on Friday from a long stay on the IL, donged, and should have every day at-bats in the middle of the O’s order as the 1B/DH with the other Ryan, O’Hearn, having been shipped to San Diego. Above-average power and Contact ability should make him a good source of RBI the rest of the way.

I’ll admit, I’m a sucker for a redemption story. In which case, Andrew Vaughn’s second chance with the Brewers has me fired up. He entered the season with a career .725 OPS. He has hit .352 with a 1.045 OPS through 26 games with the Brewers and, yes, PLV is a believer.

Second Base

Shortstop

Third Base

Those in shallow leagues might want to keep an eye on Royce Lewis. Yes, he hasn’t gone yard since July 23rd, and he hit seventh Monday night. Not great. However, a market correction could be headed his way.

Like Shaw, Noelvi Marte’s 100 Power+ doesn’t pop. But he is also proving that it is best to play the long game with rookies. The Reds’ addition of Ke’Bryan Hayes has given Marte the added bonus of OF eligibility.

Brett Baty is in a logjam right now with Jeff McNeil, Mark Vientos, and Ronny Mauricio for playing time. However, PLV thinks he has the edge in terms of power. He is off the radar for now, but let’s keep an eye on him and see if he can nudge forward and earn more at-bats.

Outfield

Jesús Sánchez has been forgettable, posting 10 homers and a 103 wRC+ through 376 PAs. However, he has a better home park after the deadline, with Daikin Park having the sixth-best HR factor for LHB according to Statcast, and has started 10 of 11 games since being traded to the Astros. His 110 Power+ suggests he might make some noise over the final weeks.

Matt Wallner has gone yard nine times and has posted a .964 OPS over the last 30 days. PLV says there is nothing fluky about it, either.

Jordan Walker’s electric bat speed hasn’t translated to much in-game power, and his swing decisions (78 DV+) haven’t helped either. Still, he has put together some good games lately, leaving a glimmer of hope as a post-hype prospect.

Waiver wire sensation Isaac Collins is hitting .295 with eight home runs and a 142 wRC+ over 316 PAs. His swing decisions are exceptional (116 DV+). However, a 92 Contact Ability+ and a 90 Power+ indicate he is probably performing a bit over his head.

Jordan Beck’s .806 OPS would rank fourth behind Roman Anthony among qualified rookies. But alas, he exhausted rookie status last season with 184 PAs. Regardless, PLV backs his performance with a 110 Power+. His 89 Contact Ability+ is a weakness, indicating his .277 average might not stick. However, his swing decisions have improved recently, and that is always good to see from young hitters.

Daulton Varsho has impressed in a small sample, with a Power+ about two standard deviations above the norm. However, his 84 Contact Ability+ will drain your batting average.

Joc Pederson has had a hideous season. Still, he posted a 130 Power+ last year and hit a couple of home runs last week, including one off Zack Wheeler. Those in deep daily lineup leagues might want to stick him on their watchlist just in case the guy with a career 126 wRC+ vs. RHP shows up.

Trent Grisham has solidified himself as the Yankees’ leadoff hitter against RHP, and his outstanding glove should keep him in the lineup against LHP, too. He hasn’t stolen any bases like he did back with the Padres, but his metrics, including a 125 DV+ and 120 Process+, indicate someone who should be more than 20% rostered.

Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurt_player02 on Instagram & Threads
@kuwasemiller.bksy.social on BlueSky)