Welcome back to the 2025 two-start pitcher rankings!
Each week, I’ll break down all the projected two-start starters and group them into four tiers: Set and Forget, Probably Start, Questionable, and Avoid. Set-and-Forget starters are simply that; get them in your lineup and don’t think twice. The Most Likely tier includes players with a mix of skill and matchups that make them almost certainly two-start plays, but not without some elevated risk compared to the top tier. Questionable starters are those best suited for daily lineup leagues, where you can bench them against the tougher of their two opponents; they’re more situation-dependent in weekly leagues. Finally, we have the Avoid tier, which includes two-start pitchers who should remain on your bench or the wire.
I’ll also be highlighting one Two-Start Streamer of the Week. The criteria for a streamer will be a rostered rate under 50% in Yahoo and ESPN leagues. The Streamer of the Week will be highlighted in green in the tables.
Let’s dive in.
As a friendly reminder, the projected starters are just that, projections. They are subject to change.
Set-and-Forget
- There aren’t a ton of slam-dunk pitchers slated for two starts this week. Max Fried and Bryan Woo are the two exceptions, with both ranking as Tier Two starters in the Pitcher List Rankings. Both pitchers can be started against any opponent, but neither player has a particularly daunting projected schedule, either.
Most Likely
- Merrill Kelly gets a huge upgrade moving from the Diamondbacks to the Rangers. Arizona is 24th in the league in Defensive Runs Saved, while the Rangers have been the best team in the league in that department. That should help tremendously. Kelly has allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven straight starts, and while he’ll have to navigate a brutal upcoming schedule, he has a very safe floor.
- The only downside with Sean Manaea at the moment is his length. The Mets have been very careful with him since his return to the lineup, but he has dominated, posting a 2.08 ERA, 2.87 xERA, and a 32.4% strikeout rate. His leash should only get longer as he gets further removed from his injury, so he’s paying big dividends for those who stashed him on the IL.
- Jesús Luzardo isn’t as good as he looked at the beginning of the year, but he’s not nearly as bad as he looks when he struggles. He’s provided plenty of punchouts this season, and a few blowup outings have inflated his 4.31 ERA. His 3.62 xERA is above average, and he’s coming off seven scoreless innings in his last start. There’s always some risk with Luzardo, but the upside outweighs the downside.
- MacKenzie Gore has hit a bit of a rough patch recently, allowing six earned runs or more in two of his past three outings. That’s a bit concerning, but Gore has been too good for most of the season to worry too much. He’s been an elite strikeout pitcher, ranking in the 86th percentile for strikeout rate, and he’s slated for two excellent matchups versus the Athletics and Giants. The Athletics are 24th in wRC+ when facing a southpaw on the road, while the Giants are 26th versus lefties overall.
- Michael Soroka is another pitcher who changed teams before the deadline, moving from the Nationals to the Cubs. Soroka has been a solid contributor this season, posting a 3.32 xERA across 16 starts, and he’ll have much more win upside following a change of scenery. Getting the Reds at home and the Cardinals on the road is enough to make him the Streamer of the Week.
- Sonny Gray is arguably the best fantasy pitcher in this tier, checking in at No. 26 in the Pitcher List Rankings. However, he’s dealt with a bit of adversity recently, allowing 17 earned runs over his past three starts, and he’ll have to navigate a pair of brutal matchups vs. the Dodgers and Cubs. You can consider benching him in either contest, but he has a long enough track record to warrant the benefit of the doubt.
- Justin Verlander is no longer the ace pitcher he was in his prime, but he’s still capable of providing value in the right matchups. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his past four outings, and he’s added seven strikeouts in two of them. It doesn’t get much better than matchups versus the Pirates and Nationals, so he’s another outstanding streaming option.
Questionable
- Brayan Bello is not nearly as good as his 3.19 ERA suggests. His 4.45 xERA is significantly higher and puts him in the 29th percentile, so he’s far from a must-start. That said, he doesn’t have a ton of downside vs. the Royals, who rank 27th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.
- Adrian Houser has been one of the biggest surprises of the season, pitching to a 2.10 ERA across 11 starts with the White Sox. Now, he’ll look to see if he can keep it up with the Astros. His advanced metrics aren’t nearly as impressive, making him a clear regression candidate, but he definitely has more win potential after landing in Houston. He has plenty of downside versus the Angels, but he’s certainly viable in Seattle. T-Mobile Park is the most pitcher-friendly venue in baseball per Statcast Park Factors.
- Davis Martin will also get to pitch in Seattle, and he also draws an excellent matchup versus the Guardians. Martin is another massive regression candidate down the stretch — his xERA is more than 1.5 runs higher than his actual mark — but he shouldn’t get hurt too badly against these opponents.
- Slade Cecconi has pitched to a 3.77 ERA, but he’s another pitcher with shaky underlying metrics. The Mets’ offense has been brutal recently, but he’s still a risky option in that contest. He’s much more appealing vs. the White Sox, who are 28th in wRC+ vs. right-handers.
- Zebby Matthews has yet to have tangible results at the MLB level, but they’re coming eventually. He has fantastic stuff, ranking in the 88th percentile for strikeout rate and 81st percentile for walk rate. Ultimately, his 22.8% K-BB rate would be the sixth-best mark in baseball if he had enough innings to qualify. His upcoming schedule isn’t great, but he’s talented enough to start against anyone. He doesn’t have the same floor as some of the better pitchers in fantasy, but the upside is there.
- Yusei Kikuchi hasn’t been quite the same pitcher this season. His 3.30 ERA is excellent, but he’s not striking out batters at nearly the same rate as in years past. He carries some risk against the Tigers — they’re fourth in wRC+ vs. southpaws — but he’s definitely viable vs. the Rays.
- The Braves have two projected two-start pitchers, and Joey Wentz is the more appealing of the two. He has a respectable 3.88 xERA this season, and he allowed just one hit and zero runs across 6.1 innings in his last outing. The Braves have a favorable upcoming schedule, so Wentz is a potential streaming option.
- Is Sandy Alcantara back? It’s possible. He’s allowed zero earned runs in back-to-back outings, though he had a 4.49 FIP in his last contest. Unfortunately, his numbers for the year are still dreadful, and neither of his upcoming opponents is a cupcake.
- Nick Lodolo versus the Pirates? Absolutely. Lodolo versus the Cubs? Possibly not. Lodolo has survived in two starts versus the Cubs this season — 11 innings, three earned runs — but they’re fifth in wRC+ versus southpaws for the year. The wind conditions in Wrigley Field will be the big x-factor here: if the wind is blowing out, benching him is certainly justifiable.
- Nothing that Quinn Priester is doing feels particularly sustainable, but he’s getting results. He has a 3.27 ERA for the season, and he generates ground balls at an elite rate: his 57.4% ground-ball rate puts him in the 96th percentile. As long as he can continue to keep the ball on the ground, it gives him a pretty solid floor.
- It seems as though Brandon Pfaadt is never going to be a thing. He was a highly-touted prospect, but he’s been one of the worst full-time starters in baseball this season. The only reason he’s in this tier is his home matchup versus the Rockies, and anyone with a pulse is potentially startable in that spot.
- The Padres acquired JP Sears in the blockbuster Mason Miller deal. His xERA is nearly a full run lower than his actual mark, so perhaps the change in scenery will result in better results. He should have more win potential at a minimum, and neither of his tentative starts is intimidating.
- Casey Mize was an All-Star this season, but he’s more of a league-average pitcher than an ace. He’s definitely in play versus the Twins — who traded away nearly their entire roster before the deadline — but he has some risk against a surging Angels’ lineup.
Avoid
- There’s very little to get excited about here. Maybe you can find a start for one or two of these guys if you’re desperate, but you’d have to squint really hard to find it. You’re best off just avoiding this tier entirely, with the risk far outweighing the upside.
