Two-Start Starters: Week 11

Welcome to the 11th edition of the 2026 two-start pitcher rankings!

Each week, I’ll break down all the projected two-start starters into four tiers: Set and Forget, Most Likely Start, Questionable, and Avoid. Set-and-Forget starters are simply that; get them in your lineup and shift your focus to other positions. The Most Likely tier includes players with a mix of skill and matchups that make them almost certainly two-start plays, though they carry some elevated risk compared to the top tier. Questionable starters are those best suited for daily lineup leagues, where you can bench them against the tougher of their two opponents; they’re more situation-dependent in weekly leagues. Finally, the Avoid tier includes the pitchers who should remain on your bench or the wire.

I will also be highlighting one Two-Start Streamer of the Week. The criteria for a streamer will be a rostered rate under 50% in Yahoo & ESPN leagues. The streamer of the week for this upcoming week is Dustin May, and he will have (STOW) next to his name.

As a friendly reminder, the projected starters are just that, projections, and are subject to change

• Payton Tolle should be a mainstay in most league lineups at this point.  There are very few exceptions where I’d consider benching him.  He has a sub-1 WHIP (0.97), a strong K-BB% (20.3%), and faces two offenses that are bottom 10 in wRC+ vs LHP.
• Gavin Williams will face the Yankees for the second consecutive start in his first outing of the week.  In his last outing, he allowed 3 ER over 5.1 IP with 6 Ks and only 5 base runners.  This time, he’ll be pitching in Cleveland, and we received confirmation that Aaron Judge will be out for a significant period.   Williams has had a breakout season, and there’s no reason to bench him right now.
• Speaking of breakout seasons, if you were able to acquire Kyle Harrison, you should be keeping him in the lineup.  That trend continues this week.  Don’t overthink this.
• Gerrit Cole allowed his first runs of the season against the Guardians in a game where he didn’t have it.  It’ll happen. He looked so good in the first two outings; don’t let the last one deter you from locking him into your lineup every week until he gives you a reason otherwise.
• Cristopher Sánchez finally allowed a run after a historic stretch.  He did it during an outing in which he struck out 8 over 7 innings and allowed 5 base runners on just 84 pitches.  The NL Cy Young favorite should have a designated spot in your weekly lineup regardless of who he’s facing.
• Paul Skenes was BABIP’d in his last outing.  His ERA starts with a 3.00, but there’s still a very strong argument for him being the best pitcher in the sport, and he still has the top spot on The List for a reason.
• The Nationals have had one of the best offenses in the sport; however, there’s no reason to bench Logan Gilbert right now.  He’s had two bad starts this season, but the metrics are still elite.  He goes deep into games, he limits baserunners, and he strikes out over a quarter of the batters he faces.  Let him ride.

• Taj Bradley is coming off two poor starts.  He still generated 9 whiffs on his four-seamer in his last start, despite poor location.  The stuff is good enough to be successful, which is what I’m banking on this week.  Even with the command struggles in his last inning, he struck out 20% of the batters he faced.
• George Kirby has a career worst 19.8% strikeout percentage, but the walk rate is still elite. His 4.04 ERA is higher than his 3.62 xERA and 3.38 FIP.  He’s been hurt by poor batted ball luck (.323 BABIP), which hurts more when the strikeouts aren’t where we’re accustomed to seeing.  Regardless, he’s worth starting this week.
• Logan Webb has put together a solid season.  The strikeouts are still back to the 2024 rates, and the walks are slightly elevated.  Pitching at home should help this week, and he went 6+ innings in all but 3 starts this season.  High floor, low ceiling.
• Dustin May (STOW) has his lowest walk rate (6.8%) since 2021, when he posted a 5.4% mark over 5 starts.  The strikeout rate (21.5%) is right in line with the league.  Recently, he’s struck out 7+ in 3 of his last 4 starts, and I’m expecting that trend to continue in Citi Field and at Minnesota this week.  The recent increase in strikeouts, coupled with a low walk rate and a strong innings floor (pitched at least 5 innings in every start), drove the decision to label him my STOW.
• Nathan Eovaldi is coming off two rough starts and a poor quality start (3 ER over 6+ IP).  I’m not ready to doubt him yet, but that’s why he’s in this tier rather than the Set-and-Forget.  That being said, he’s been an innings eater this season, and his pitcherlist page features a lot of red.

• Jeffrey Springs against the Brewers is something I’d look to avoid, but against a Rockies offense that has been dreadful recently?  That could be worth a desperate stream over the weekend, even if it is in Sacramento.
• Trevor Rogers looks nothing like the pitcher he was last season.  His 1.51 WHIP and 16.9% K% are a concern.  That being said, the Padres have the second-worst offense in the sport vs LHP, and he could be worth a stream against them.
• Shota Imanaga has been killed by the longball recently, allowing 12 home runs over his last 4 starts.  Proceed with caution until he can get this under control.  I like him more against the Giants than in Colorado for this reason.  The Giants’ offense is better, but their ballpark will be a lot friendlier to Shota than Coors, especially when he has PCA roaming the massive outfield.
• What did Davis Martin do to have to face the Braves AND the Dodgers in his two-start week?  He’s had two poor starts in his last three, but has been unbelievable otherwise.  Regardless, there is some risk that inherently comes with facing either the Braves or the Dodgers, let alone facing both.
• Stephen Kolek has been hit or miss in all his starts this season.  He just threw 7 innings of 2-run ball with 8 strikeouts in Cincinnati, but that came on the heels of an outing where he allowed 4 ER (6 Total) over 5 innings against the Rangers, in Texas. I think he’s a solid pitcher, but I’m still not sure what to expect on any given night.  Of the options in this tier, he’s my favorite.
• Grayson Rodriguez was terrible in his last outing.  However, before that, he threw 5 quality innings against the Tigers, striking out 5 over 5 innings of 1 run ball.  There are definitely worse streaming options this week.
• Walker Buehler is someone I’d consider streaming against the Reds in San Diego.  His K% is above 20% for the first time since 2022, and his walk rate is only 8.2%.  He pitched well against the Phillies twice in a row, and they are a better offense than the teams he’ll face this week.
• Andrew Abbott faces the Padres and Diamondbacks this week. I’d avoid him against a Diamondbacks team that has the second-best wRC+ against LHP, even if the game weren’t in Cincinnati.  Against the Padres, he could be worth streaming against the Padres.  The ceiling isn’t very high, but he’s thrown 5 or more innings with 3 or fewer runs in 6 consecutive starts.

Some quick notes on the pitchers in this tier:

• Tomoyuki Sugano has exceeded all expectations this season, but pitching in Coors against the Cubs and then in Sacramento is too scary a proposition.
• Kodai Senga, Steven Matz, Miles Mikolas, and Braxton Garrett have struggled and aren’t worth rostering right now
• Patrick Corbin has to face the Phillies and Yankees, and his xERA (4.95) is almost a full run higher than his ERA (3.98).
• Grant Holmes has thrown fewer than 5 innings a few too many times and hasn’t thrown 90+ pitches since his first start of the season. outside of a 10-strikeout game against the Nationals, the strikeout upside hasn’t been there.

 

Graphic made by Doug Carlin