Welcome to the 12th edition of the 2026 two-start pitcher rankings!
Each week, I’ll break down all the projected two-start starters into four tiers: Set and Forget, Most Likely Start, Questionable, and Avoid. Set-and-Forget starters are simply that; get them in your lineup and shift your focus to other positions. The Most Likely tier includes players with a mix of skill and matchups that make them almost certainly two-start plays, though they carry some elevated risk compared to the top tier. Questionable starters are those best suited for daily lineup leagues, where you can bench them against the tougher of their two opponents; they’re more situation-dependent in weekly leagues. Finally, the Avoid tier includes the pitchers who should remain on your bench or the wire.
I will also be highlighting one Two-Start Streamer of the Week. The criteria for a streamer will be a rostered rate under 50% in Yahoo & ESPN leagues. The streamer of the week for this upcoming week is Jared Jones, and he will have (STOW) next to his name.
As a friendly reminder, the projected starters are just that, projections, and are subject to change
- Payton Tolle attacks hitters with a three fastball approach, plus the occasional curveball. All three of his fastballs are successful, the four-seamer alone makes up half of his usage, and has an elite 40% chase rate and 15.7% SwStr%. His Sinker and Cutter are both exceptional, and this trio sets up his curveball to be a devastating weapon, in the 99th percentile in O-Swing% and CSW%, and 98th percentile in SwStr% among SPs. Find a nice spot in your lineup for him and leave him there for the foreseeable future.
- Chase Burns: AGA
- There is a chance Hagen Smith makes his debut for the White Sox on Tuesday, making him their two-start starter (and someone I wouldn’t trust against the Yankees in his debut), but as of writing, no confirmed starter for the White Sox on Saturday, which lines up nicely for Smith’s debut since his last start was Sunday. If this is the case, I expect Davis Martin, who last pitched on Wednesday, June 10th, to be the Southside’s two-start starter. Martin’s been exceptional this season, and he deserves to be in the Set-and-Forget tier for now.
- Gerrit Cole had two strong starts to begin his season, but has had some issues in his last two starts, both against the Guardians. He’s coming back from a long recovery, and it’s fair to write these last two starts as anomalies…for now.
- Zack Wheeler: AGA
- Dylan Cease was incredible in his return from the IL, racking up 11 strikeouts on 29 (!!!) whiffs.
- Two rough locations for the recently returned Jared Jones (STOW) to make his starts this week. However, he’s averaging 98.8 mph on his fastball and can overpower hitters. The big question with him is his pitch count, which has hovered in the mid-70s in all three of his starts this season, but expect that number to rise this week.
- Outside of a rough start against the Tigers, Nick Martinez has been very good for the Rays. The ceiling is limited by his lack of strikeouts, but he also won’t walk many hitters, and a third of his walks this season came in his first start. The Rays’ trend of limited pitch counts has been on full display with Martinez this season, as he’s only eclipsed 90 pitches twice. Even then, he can be effective against the Dodgers and Nationals. Maybe on a week with stronger two-start options, he’d be in a lower tier, but the high floor lands him in the most likely tier this week.
- Ryne Nelson has a four-seam heavy approach that’s supplemented by secondaries that are below average in SwStr% and CSW%. Even against two teams that are 19th and 20th in wRC+ vs RHP, I’d be cautious.
- Grant Holmes throws fastballs in the zone (82nd percentile Zone%) to set up sliders — his best pitch — out of the zone (21st percentile Zone%, 88th percentile O-Swing%). Outside of one start, the strikeouts just aren’t there. I’d avoid the Brewers start and wouldn’t expect too much against the Giants, even if he’s playable in deeper leagues.
- Brandon Young has a low BABIP despite being below average in Ideal Contact Rate (ICR). He did just pitch well against the Mariners in Baltimore, and will see them again in his first start of the week in the pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. He’s another pitcher that won’t rack up strikeouts, but won’t hurt you with walks either.
- I was worried about Shota Imanaga in Coors given his recent issues with the long ball. Those worries were washed away with a dominant start from Shota. He’s worth streaming against the Rockies in Wrigley, but I’d proceed with caution against the Blue Jays over the weekend.
- Seth Lugo might miss time after getting hit in the head by a line drive in his last start, in which he was pitching fine. If he doesn’t miss time or only makes his second start of the week against the Cardinals, I would consider streaming him. If he doesn’t miss time, I’m avoiding him against a Nationals offense that has been dangerous.
- Walbert Ureña has strikeout upside, but he’s walked 3+ in his last four starts and has a 13.6% walk rate on the season. Walking A’s in Sacramento is a recipe for disaster, but he has a higher ceiling than most of the pitchers in this tier this week.
- Reid Detmers is coming off two dominant starts and has struck out at least one batter per inning in his last 6 starts. The Diamondbacks have feasted on LHP this year (4th in wRC+ vs LHP), and then his second start is in Sacramento. Like his teammate, he’s a high ceiling/low floor option without much in between.
- Pitching at home helps MacKenzie Gore this week. However, I’m still not sure what to make of him. He’s flashed some of the potential in a few outings this year, but there’s been a lot more bad and “fine” starts. His last start fits right into this conundrum: 34.5% CSW, good! 11 baserunners in 5 innings, not good!
I’m looking for better options on days these pitchers start. There’s not much to say about any of them here, but happy to elaborate on any of the two-start starters this week! Just reply to Nick’s post with the article on Twitter/X and I’ll answer any questions!
Graphic made by Doug Carlin
