Two-Start Starters: Week 9

Welcome to the ninth edition of the 2026 two-start pitcher rankings!

Each week, I’ll break down all the projected two-start starters into four tiers: Set and Forget, Most Likely Start, Questionable, and Avoid. Set-and-Forget starters are simply that; get them in your lineup and shift your focus to other positions. The Most Likely tier includes players with a mix of skill and matchups that make them almost certainly two-start plays, though they carry some elevated risk compared to the top tier. Questionable starters are those best suited for daily lineup leagues, where you can bench them against the tougher of their two opponents; they’re more situation-dependent in weekly leagues. Finally, the Avoid tier includes the pitchers who should remain on your bench or the wire.

I will also be highlighting one Two-Start Streamer of the Week. The criteria for a streamer will be a rostered rate under 50% in Yahoo & ESPN leagues. The streamer of the week for this upcoming week is Zebby Matthews, and he will have (STOW) next to his name.

As a friendly reminder, the projected starters are just that, projections, and are subject to change

• Trey Yesavage looks like he took a step forward this season.  The K% is up, the BB% is down, and his mix is still generating whiffs at an elite clip (93rd percentile SwStr%).  Against the Marlins and lefty-heavy O’s?  Yes please.
• Chris Sale is still an ace.  He’s now 3rd on The List and has the best WHIP (0.87) and still boasts an elite 29.9% strikeout rate.  Leave him in your lineup as long as he’s healthy.
• Jacob Misiorowski hasn’t allowed a run in 4 starts this month, in which he’s averaging just over 6 innings per start.  He has a comical 42.5% strikeout rate and an extremely low 5.7% walk rate.  He’s on a different level right now.
• Chase Burns is another young pitcher living up to the hype. While his May hasn’t been as good as the Miz’s, it’s still been exceptional, pitching to a 0.72 ERA and 0.72 WHIP over 25 innings.  Outside of an abnormal 2 strikeout performance against the Astros, he’s striking out at least one hitter per inning.
• Joe Ryan looked a lot more like the pitcher we expected coming into the season since his May 9th start.  He has a favorable matchup in Pittsburgh next weekend, and he has the stuff to negate the White Sox’s dangerous lefties.
• Cam Schlittler is the AL Cy Young front-runner, and his last outing against the Blue Jays — 6.0 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K — is a “bad” start for him.  Not even Sacramento or Coors should scare you off starting Schilttler and his fastball-heavy approach

• Kyle Bradish has 23 strikeouts over his last three starts (18.1 IP). Over that span, he’s thrown 96, 100, and 102 pitches.  He’ll face a Rays team that has a 99 wRC+ on the road (112 wRC+ at home) and a Blue Jays team that is struggling offensively.
• Jesús Luzardo’s ERA doesn’t represent his season.  His 4.85 ERA is notably higher than his 3.38 xERA< 2.87 FIP, and 2.81 FIP.  His ERA and WHIP (1.31) have been hurt by a .363 BABIP that is due for positive regression, as Luzardo is posting the best walk rate of his career (6.4%), which is coupled with an elite strikeout rate (28%).
• Braxton Ashcraft might only have 1 start next week if Jared Jones returns, but his breakout is real.  His 3.09 ERA is right in line with his xERA (3.16) and FIP (3.17), and his strikeout rate has remained steady (25.6%) despite transitioning to a full-time starter.

• Ex-STOW Jack Kochanowicz could be worth a flier this week with two fine matchups.  The Tigers are struggling offensively, and the Twins are middle of the pack in wRC+ on the season (101). The Angels have shown us that they aren’t afraid to let Kochanowicz eat innings, even when he’s allowing lots of traffic and struggling to miss bats, which can lower his floor.
• Mike Burrows will only have one start next week if the Astros go with a six-man rotation. He’s struggling with limiting home runs, which has heavily contributed to his 5.41 FIP (despite a strong 8.1% BB rate). He’s only had one great start this season to go with plenty of okay ones and a few poor starts.  The Rangers only have a 79 wRC+ at home, so he could be worth a flier against them, but the ceiling isn’t what we hoped for coming into the season.
• Michael McGreevy against the Brewers is a streaming option, but I’d avoid him against the Cubs, who have the fourth-best offense in the sport per wRC+.  The concerns about his CSW% (18th percentile) are slightly alleviated by his 89th percentile BB rate, but this does lower his ceiling and can lead to outings where he can be BABIP’d out of the game.
• Edward Cabrera left his last start early due to a finger blister, putting his status as a two-start starer in jeopardy.  Regardless, I would like to see what his command and stuff look like against the Pirates if he tries to pitch through the blister before deciding if he’s worth the start against the Cardinals.
• Ben Brown’s upside is limited by his dependence on his curveball, which he’s still building up as a starter, and he’s really a two-pitch pitcher.  Brown relies on his four-seam and curveball, and will mix in some sinkers and the rare changeup.  That being said, he’s still getting results and has two favorable matchups this week.
• Merrill Kelly has two favorable matchups at the Giants and then in Seattle.  His strikeout rate is still way below his career average (14.9% in 2026, 21.7% for his career), and his walk rate is the highest mark of his career (9.9%). His GB rate is also notably down, but he’s trending in the right direction in that he hasn’t walked a hitter in his last two starts.
• Emmet Sheehan is still looking for his velocity, as he’s averaging 94.3 mph on the season despite averaging just over 95 last season.  Despite that, it still has an elite 13.6% SwStr% but a poor 12.3% CS% as his Zone% on the pitch is just 42.6% (18th percentile).   In his 9 games, he’s only completed the 5th inning four times, which limits his upside.
• Landen Roupp has seen a spike in his strikeout rate (27.2%) without an increase in his walk rate.  His command is his calling card, and he has a 92nd percentile CS% on his sinker.  I’m starting him against the Diamondbacks, but I will hesitate to trust him in Colorado.
• Tanner Bibee has walked batters at a slightly higher rate this season.  He’s coming off his best start of the season from a results perspective (8 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K) and has three quality starts in a row.  That being said, the strikeouts aren’t there, which concerns me.
• Bryce Miller is a location change from his first start of the week (in Sacramento) from being in the Most Likely tier.  He has an elite four-seamer that can miss bats and set up his slider/splitter.  This will be his third and fourth start of the year, so he’ll have to be efficient with his pitch count to get through six innings.
• Janson Junk has an ERA (5.07) that is almost a run higher than his xERA (4.21) and FIP (4.31).  He’s in the 25th percentile in strikeout rate but the 88th percentile in walks.  His BABIP is just worse than league average (.290 for Junk and .286 average for SP).  He struggles to miss bats, but has pitched 5 innings or more in all but his first start of the season.  His last two starts have been rough, allowing 15 ER in 10.2 IP, but before this tough stretch, he was a solid pitcher.  He’s a low-ceiling streaming option.
• Zach Thornton made his first start of the season, and while it wasn’t a trainwreck, it could’ve been better.  88% of his pitches were some type of fastball (50% Cutter, 28% Four-Seamer, 10% Sinker), and he was hurt by a 50% HR/FB%.  The matchups could be worse as he takes on the Reds in Citifield this week before travelling to face the Marlins.  He’s a bit of an enigma at the MLB level.
• Shane Baz faces the Rays away from the Trop before facing the Blue Jays.  Despite their struggles this season, the Blue Jays are still tough to strike out, and Baz’s strikeout rate is still the lowest mark of his career.  The walks are something to monitor in recent weeks, as he’s walked 3 or more in each of his last four outings.
• Carmen Mlodzinski is too risky a stream against the Cubs for me, but could be worth a flier against the Twins at the end of the week.  Something to monitor with Mlodzinski is that he has only four strikeouts over his last three starts, all of which were against the Giants, Rockies, and Cardinals — not exactly powerhouse offensives.
• Jack Leiter has a 30.9% K% against righties this season and 20.3% mark against lefties.  His dominance against righties is clearer when comparing his xwOBAs (.291 vs R, .359 vs L).  Facing Yordan multiple times is a scary proposition, but the Royals’ lefties haven’t lived up to the preseason hype, and his dominance against righties is tantalizing during a week where a lot of options have question marks.
• Griffin Jax is transitioning to a starter role, which lowers his ceiling and floor, but in his last start, he completed 5 innings on just 62 pitches and struck out 6.   In the prior start, he struggled with walks (four in five innings) but still didn’t allow a run.  If you haven’t stashed him yet, he’s worth some FAAB as he’s trending in a strong direction.
• Ranger Suarez might only make one start this week if Crochet returns to the rotation.  He’s allowed only one run in his last 4 starts, although two of them were 4.1 innings and 4.0 innings.  He’s only had two starts this season where he’s struck out more than one hitter per inning, which has made his strikeout rate a little misleading.
• Michael Wacha against the Yankees is a scary proposition, but he’s worth streaming against the Rangers in Texas.  The changeup is still exceptional.
• Casey Mize threw 71 pitches in his first start back, allowing just two hits and no walks with four strikeouts against the Blue Jays.  If he’s available in your league, I would consider picking him up, as he was dominant before getting hurt in his 4/28 start.  He’s very close to the most likely tier this week. I have questions about how deep he’ll be going into games since he just returned from injury.
• Zebby Matthews (STOW) has been electric in his two starts this season.  Relying primarily on his four-seamer and playing his curveball, slider, changeup, and cutter off of it.  He’s only walked one in his 13 innings this season and has 11 strikeouts. The hesitation with Zebby is that he’s only made two starts this season as a young pitcher.  He’ll have to navigate the White Sox and Pirates’ dangerous lefty sluggers, but the upside is there, and he’s not rostered as much as he should be, making him my STOW.
• Sean Burke faces the Twins and the struggling Tigers. The walk and homerun rates are good, but recently, he’s struggled to get through the fifth inning.  The ceiling isn’t very high; the best to expect from him right now is 5 innings,  about a 1.40 WHIP, and a strikeout per inning with a pair of runs.

• The most notable pitcher in this tier is Aaron Civale, who has pitched well this year but has both of his starts this week in Sacramento, including a weekend matchup against the Yankees sluggers.

Graphic created by Doug Carlin