Every week, the Pitcher List team will publish an update to our power rankings, highlighting three teams among the different tiers of contention. As always, the full rankings can be found at the bottom of this article, but where’s the fun in that?
The All-Star break serves as the unofficial midway point of the season, and it couldn’t have come soon enough for many teams, while others are probably annoyed by this stop to their momentum. Take the Brewers, winners of seven straight, or the Red Sox, who have now won a whopping ten in a row, and they won’t be too happy with four days off. Meanwhile, the Dodgers barely escaped San Francisco with a series win, following a seven-game skid, while the Rays and Cardinals have slowly regressed to the back-end of their respective wild card races.
Despite the relative parity around the league, the second half will start with 19 teams within four games of a playoff spot, but with clear favorites at the top. One of them is Chicago (NL version), which receives the spotlight treatment this week after a fun series win over the Yankees. Those same Yankees started the week by sweeping the Mariners, who promptly responded by sweeping the Tigers. As one of the most unpredictable squads in baseball, Seattle still falls squarely in the middle tier. The bottom is rounded out by the horrible Pirates, who can at least boast of having the NL All-Star game starting pitcher for the second year in a row, while the rest of the league counts the days towards his free agency…
Contender
No. 4 – Chicago Cubs (57-39, +119)
After the disappointment of 2024 in year one of Craig Counsell’s tenure, the Cubs flew under the radar in many offseason projections, especially considering their many question marks. The addition of Kyle Tucker was certainly exciting, but came at the expense of a solid player in Isaac Paredes and a good prospect like Cam Smith, while the team also lost Cody Bellinger to the Yankees. Instead, the Cubs have answered every question by becoming one of the most fun and solid teams in the majors, and will head to the break as a true contender for the first time in almost a decade.
Just an excellent first half for the Chicago Cubs.
They’ll enter break:
– 1st place in NL Central
– Either 2nd or t-1st best record in the NL
– Either t-2nd or 3rd best record in MLB
– Best run diff in MLB
– 4th best team OPS in MLBAll with Steele DFY and Shota missing time
— Corey Freedman (@corey_cubs) July 13, 2025
Outside of third base, where Jon Berti and Matt Shaw have been a sinkhole, the Cubs can boast of a positive WAR and above-average OPS in every other position. This includes the NL WAR leader in Pete Crow-Armstrong, the biggest All-Star snub in Seiya Suzuki, a more than solid Tucker, and excellent complementary performances from the likes of Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, and Carson Kelly. As a whole, the Cubs are a top-5 offense in terms of runs, homers, and OPS.
The pitching side could benefit from reinforcements around the trade deadline, especially as there are probably only two starters that could be totally reliable in a playoff series. Matthew Boyd is having a career year at age 34 (10 wins with a 2.34 ERA), while Shota Imanaga has been terrific when healthy. Meanwhile, the vast offensive support has made constant winners of Jameson Taillon and Colin Rea, but they should be nothing more than long relief against superior opponents. The only blemish for the Cubs could be their pedestrian record against winning teams (27-28), which has been made moot by their complete domination over sub-.500 squads (30-11).
Taking a series against the Yankees in the Bronx was a sign of how dangerous Chicago can be, but they are almost guaranteed to become one of the most aggressive adders around the deadline. With clear needs at third base and in need of a starting pitcher or two, the executives have their work cut out for them, especially as the pesky Brewers are only a game behind in the NL Central. After a few years of stops and starts, it seems as if the Cubs have a solid foundation to build around, but this year could be a great opportunity to go all-in. Think of those poor young Cubs fans who haven’t seen a parade since 2016!
The Middle
No. 13 – Seattle Mariners (51-45, +32)
The Mariners continue to be one of the most confounding teams in the league, and the most recent week speaks volumes of their chaotic nature. It all started with a three-game sweep suffered against the Yankees in which they allowed 19 runs in their first two games, only to lose the finale despite holding New York hitless through seven innings and having a commanding 5-0 lead. Astoundingly, the M’s rebounded from that blow by sweeping the AL-leading Tigers, scoring 35 runs in the weekend series, including a win against Tarik Skubal and a ninth-inning offensive explosion to take the finale.
To add a nice touch to their weekend, Seattle was also able to snatch mega-prospect Kade Anderson with the third pick of the draft. The All-Star break thus becomes a period of deserved rest and smiles for the franchise, although their current status suggests that there is plenty of work to do for the second half.
What a day to be a Seattle Mariners fan 🤯
Now go make a trade, Jerry! pic.twitter.com/T68WL9xfR7
— G. Colombini (@grcolombini) July 13, 2025
With playoff odds around 60% and most of the AL West fading, it is clear that the Mariners have the upper hand towards October, but their current iteration may be a couple of injuries or a losing streak away from the .500 club. Seattle’s star power can match almost any team’s in terms of production, with Cal Raleigh becoming an MVP candidate, Julio Rodriguez and J.P. Crawford excelling with their all-around play, and even Randy Arozarena having a renaissance at age 30. The usually offensively-starved Mariners have improved to a top-10 attack in terms of runs, homers, and OPS, all of this despite plenty of opportunities given to subpar hitters for most of the season.
The recent extended playing time to the likes of Luke Raley and Dominic Canzone suggests that the Mariners will try to be more aggressive with platoons and maximizing their hitting output, although it is almost impossible to think that the front office will stop at that. President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto has been a famously aggressive trader, and he will get an excellent chance to prove his worth around this year’s deadline. With the corner infield spots as a clear need for power and production, Seattle can go all-in with their core, especially after the pitching continues to be a source of strength.
Even as the likes of Logan Gilbert and George Kirby are slowly getting back to form, they could round out a very dangerous short-series rotation with Bryan Woo and Luis Castillo, while closer Andres Muñoz highlights a terrific bullpen that is ready to shorten any game. The key for the Mariners will be to find a way to October. This week showed the Jekyll and Hyde nature of their roster, and returning after the break against the Astros and Brewers may be an excellent test to see if they can be at their best going forward.
Wait ’til 2026
No. 28 – Pittsburgh Pirates (39-58, -53)
This week, Paul Skenes became the first pitcher in MLB history to be named an All-Star in his first two seasons in the league, highlighted by the fact that he will be the starting pitcher for the National League again. In many ways, the nod is well deserved for Skenes, who currently leads the NL in bWAR, ERA, FIP, HR/9, and starts. Through his first 43 career outings, Skenes still holds a sub-2.00 ERA with a 10.7 K/9, already setting up one of the most promising futures in baseball, at the tender age of 23. Alas, all these superlatives are somehow diluted by the ineptness of his front office and the lousy product they continue to play on the field.
On Friday, Skenes took his eighth loss of the season to fall to 4-8 despite only allowing two runs. That came as part of the Pirates’ seventh game losing streak, which would continue the next day to bring this sad nugget that made the rounds on social media.
With todays loss, the Pittsburgh Pirates DO NOT have an overall winning record as a franchise.
They fall to (10877-10877)
The last time the franchise was at .500 or worse was in 1903.
Bob Nutting destroyed this once respected organization.
— Kody Duncan (@KodyDuncanPGH) July 12, 2025
A rare win in the series finale finally snapped the losing streak and brought Pittsburgh to a winning record in their once-proud history, though it is sad to know that it will not last long. Despite the best efforts from Skenes and other respectable pitchers (Pittsburgh is actually a top-10 unit in terms of run prevention), the overall state of the franchise and its roster have created another forgettable season for the Pirates, especially as most of its erstwhile promising hitters have stalled or worse.
As a whole, the Pirates are dead last in homers and runs, 29th in OPS, and 24th in K rate, creating a situation where their pitchers have to be almost perfect to have any chance at winning. Oneil Cruz leads the league in steals, but his troubling strikeout totals make him a barely average hitter. Andrew McCutchen remains a nice story, but it is tough to see him go through the motions at age 38. Ke’Bryan Hayes still plays nice defense, but his offense has become unplayable with a 60 OPS+. Bryan Reynolds has become one of the worst hitters in the league, sporting a -0.7 bWAR and a .288 OBP. The list could go on and on, but there is a simple way to put it – Paul Skenes has a higher WAR by himself than the whole Pirates offense.
With 65 games to go, the Pirates are almost certain to unload any veterans with value by the deadline and play out the string unceremoniously, with the hope that the recent draft and their top-half-ranked farm system develops enough talent to portend better days. Meanwhile, at least we get to see Skenes scratch and claw as best he can in search of wins, as voters will likely have to decide if a pitcher with excellent production but a clear losing record has enough to be considered a Cy Young winner.
