Every week, the Pitcher List team will publish an update to our power rankings, highlighting three teams among the different tiers of contention. As always, the full rankings can be found at the bottom of this article, but where’s the fun in that?
The dog days of summer are here, and with them is the finality of an early-season exit. Rosters have been purged, prospects have been called up, and for too many fanbases, football is creeping quickly onto the calendar.
Fortunately, the American League’s relative disinterest in chasing pennants has kept the playoff race alive deep into the year. Per FanGraphs, only five teams boast playoff odds below 25%. It’s a beautiful mess, and one that might send three sub-85-win teams to the dance.
The Boston Red Sox don’t seem like one of those teams. They’ve lost six games since the start of July and emerged as the story of the summer. They’re as on top of the baseball world as one can be in early August, and by crashing the American League Wild Card party, they’ve made life more difficult for front offices that aren’t trying nearly as hard to push the needle.
Contender
No. 6 Boston Red Sox (64-53, +84 run differential)
Craig Breslow might be the most relieved man in Boston. A year after trading Rafael Devers (and squandering the return) and months after firing Alex Cora, everything is coming up red and navy blue.
Young starters Payton Tolle and Jake Bennett have reimagined the long-term possibilities of a rotation that’s missing its ace. Offseason acquisitions Sonny Gray and Ranger Suarez have held down the fort, and the Red Sox have found themselves with enough pitching depth to deal their surplus for offensive reinforcements.
Curtis Mead stunted that momentum with a fractured wrist in his Boston debut. But Adley Rutschman’s wrist is getting healthier by the day, and his looming return could prove to be the most meaningful transaction of this deadline season.
It’s worth giving props to Breslow for capitalizing on the momentum that has captivated the city. The players have proven they are worthy of further investment, and sending off Anthony Eyanson, Kyson Witherspoon, Enddy Azocar, and Carlos Narváez is a hell of a way to meet that call. Subsequently, the Red Sox have an extra dose of star power to deepen their lineup. Rutschman’s 115 wRC+ is a personal best since his 5.5 fWAR season in 2023. His defensive re-emergence softens the blow of losing Narváez’s elite glove, too.
Boston has embarked on this run without Garrett Crochet or Roman Anthony. Rather, the Red Sox have ridden the wave of Caleb Durbin’s path back to league average, Ceddanne Rafaela’s career year, and Willson Contreras’s steady hand.
This team is 7.0 games out of first place in the AL East and 5.5 games ahead of the third Wild Card. They are on a collision course for a rival in October, and at this point I am afraid they’ve forgotten how to lose.
The Middle
No. 12 Cleveland Guardians (58-61, -27 run differential)
On July 2nd, the Cleveland Guardians had a 69.7% chance to make the playoffs (FanGraphs). They’ve won just 13 games since then, ceding ground in the AL Central, and then, to Boston for the right to play in October.
Sharing 58 wins with the Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins, their odds currently stand at a meager 35.3%.
We have long graded Cleveland on a curve. But how long should that be the case? The Guardians are supposed to be one of the premier small-market teams in the sport, craftily maximizing players and cycling through prospects as they play catch-up with the coastal elites. This year, though, José Ramírez has battled injuries on his way to a 103 wRC+. Steven Kwan lost his touch for two months, and Travis Bazzana’s offensive profile doesn’t yet reflect his draft capital. There’s a lot of Brayan Rocchio in this lineup, and a fringe top-10 pitching staff hasn’t been enough to compensate.
Cleveland’s recent stretch has been uninspiring. Getting swept by the New York Mets is a stain on anyone’s season, but dropping series to the Chicago White Sox and Arizona Diamondbacks might be a more accurate reflection of our expectations against playoff-caliber teams.
I like the Guardians’ trade deadline acquisitions, whether it be a partial season of Foster Griffin or the chance to experiment with Craig Yoho. Jo Adell raises the floor of the outfield, but only by so much.
Perhaps what makes GuardsBall so frustrating is that this division is so utterly winnable. Chicago is many things; inevitable isn’t one of them. The Tigers just traded the face of their franchise. The Twins might be the most “we have to buy, but don’t really want to” team in recent memory.
Cleveland, on reputation alone, should win the division. Even so, time is running low. The Guardians are a bad week from falling out of things and less than a month from salvageable levels of variance. Maybe the starting pitching has an elite six weeks in it, or its stars can deliver the production they’ve promised. It’s certainly feasible, especially with such a low bar to clear. It just feels increasingly less likely as the summer swoon turns into a season-defining slide.
Wait ‘Til 2027
No. 29 Colorado Rockies (46-72, -110 run differential)
The good news is that a new front office has shrunk the gap between the Colorado Rockies and the middle of the MLB pack. The bad news is that being half a decade behind, rather than a full 10 years, doesn’t really show up in the standings.
Colorado will remain at the bottom of the National League for the rest of the season, and in all likelihood it will spend next year in a similar spot. However, neither the Rockies’ record nor our collective snarkiness towards it should blind us to the steps they are taking. Last year, Colorado had two starters with an OPS+ above 100; just one of them had positive rWAR. In 2026, six of their regulars have surpassed 100 OPS+, all of whom are at least a win above replacement.
The Colorado faithful have enjoyed stealing Jake McCarthy’s ascension from Arizona and have made the most of TJ Rumfield’s extended opportunity. Keeping Hunter Goodman around was a testament to the light at the end of the tunnel, and he has emerged as a cornerstone for the next good Rockies team.
I can’t promise that the pitching makes good on the offense’s excitement. The unit ranks 29th in FIP, 30th in xFIP, and 25th in fWAR. A 36-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano can only have so much of a breakout.
MLB’s No. 69 prospect Charlie Condon crushes his system-leading 22nd homer of the year — 109.6 mph | 446 ft 💥@Rockies | @ABQTopes pic.twitter.com/NcYxkF2NNM
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) August 6, 2026
It is possible (albeit unlikely) that the Rockies look a lot like the White Sox in due time, shedding historical incompetence for a surprising summer of competitiveness. Playing 52 games against the NL West doesn’t help their case. Neither does the last eight seasons of Colorado baseball.
Until some genius figures out the pitching, the Rockies will be far behind the eight ball. But I’d take solace in this core hitting well enough to make games meaningful after the All-Star break, and 2026 has helped lay the foundation for that potential.
