AFL Hitter Recap

The AFL has already come and gone. After six weeks of action, the 2024 Arizona Fall League culminated with a championship win by the Salt River Rafters. The AFL is often referred to as the “finishing school” for players on the cusp of their MLB debuts, but this year’s player pool was diverse, including some 2024 draftees, a collection of highly-touted teenagers, a group of late bloomers, some career minor leaguers, and plenty of guys in between.

As in years past, a flurry of offense dominated the headlines. Teams averaged 6.33 runs per game, up from 5.67 in both 2022 and 2023. The power surge was expected as the overall talent level of pitchers remained inferior to the hitter pool, even with the surprising addition of top-prospect Andrew Painter to the Glendale roster. Fireworks will follow when you mix many exciting bats with a hitter-friendly environment and poor pitching. Due to favorable situations for hitters, it’s important to take individual performances with a grain of salt. A player dominating or struggling in the AFL is not uncommon, and the sample size is small enough not to pass significant judgment. Here is a team-by-team look at the top-hitting performances in the 2024 Arizona Fall League.

 

Glendale Desert Dogs

 

Zyhir Hope (LAD)

 

I pegged Hope as a potential MVP candidate entering the fall, but after an initial explosion, he tailed off. Hope hit three homers in his first five games and looked like he hadn’t missed a beat. As the fall went on, the strikeouts piled up. Hope finished with a disappointing .228/.301/.446 slash line with five homers and a 27.2% strikeout rate. On the plus side, his batted ball data looked excellent, including several balls he hit well over 100mph. There is no doubt that Hope is a dynamic offensive player, and although the AFL didn’t go as planned, he’s on a rocketship trajectory in prospect rankings.

 

https://www.twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/1856439644818145342

 

Matt McLain (CIN-rehab)

 

McLain was one of five MLB players in the fall, joined by Reds teammate Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Thomas Saggese, Niko Kavadas, and a cameo from Jeff McNeil. For McLain, it was an opportunity to get reps after a lost season and an unexpected reunion with his brother Sean. He hit .240 with four homers and a .876 OPS. The reps mattered most, and McLain looked healthy for the first time in 15 months.

 

Colson Montgomery (CHW)

 

Montgomery made an early exit this fall, playing in just 11 games in his second stint in the Desert. After a disappointing 2024, Montgomery looked solid in limited action. He slashed .313/.511/.656 with three homers, two doubles, and 11 RBI. Montgomery also walked 11 times in his 32 at-bats with just six strikeouts. Montgomery should be considered a slight favorite to be the White Sox’ starting shortstop in 2025.

 

Otto Kemp (PHI)

 

Kemp is one of those late bloomers who comes to the AFL more as a showcase for an NRI spot in spring training. He fared well, slashing .289/.460/.733 with six homers and 22 RBI, but the 24-year-old doesn’t have much fantasy upside and projects as a career minor leaguer.

 

Thomas Saggese (STL)

 

I was impressed with Saggese during the fall. He played excellent defense at second base and put together a bunch of quality at-bats. He hit .391 with two homers and more walks (16) than strikeouts (15), which is important coming off a season where he struck out over 25% of the time. Saggese will get a long look as a utility infielder for the Red Birds this spring.

 

Mesa Solar Sox

 

Nick Kurtz (A’s)

 

The fourth overall pick in the 2024 Draft was a late addition to the AFL. He played in 13 games, slugging two homers with three doubles and two triples. Kurtz is more athletic than I gave him credit for, and in a surprise twist, he made his first career start in the outfield! Kurtz is a borderline top-five pick in FYPD drafts and should get the fast track to the majors this summer.

Two-run 🚀 for @Athletics No. 2 prospect Nick Kurtz!

The 2024 No. 4 overall pick now has a 1.103 OPS in the AFL. pic.twitter.com/ltOhu7KMy5

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) November 12, 2024

 

Denzel Clarke (A’s)

 

Denzel Clarke was a standout on a Mesa team loaded with intriguing prospects. Clarke showed his athleticism and, more importantly, good health this fall. After missing good portions of the ’22 and ’23 seasons, Clarke played 116 games this season at Double-A and 18 more in the AFL. He hit .382 with two homers, nine steals, and a 1.061 OPS. A healthy Clarke should force his way to the A’s MLB club late this summer.

 

Moises Ballesteros (CHC)

 

Ballesteros was a guy I had eyes on all season in the AFL. His bat is MLB-ready, but the defense was the primary reason for his trip to the desert. I’m not sure that Ballesteros did enough to silence those concerns, but he reaffirmed that his bat was legitimate. The hefty catcher slashed .316/.376/.557 with five homers and 16 RBI in 19 games. Ballesteros showed zone control, solid swing decisions, and a knack for finding the barrel. It would be a surprise if the 21-year-old was not the Cubs backup catcher entering 2025.

 

Tre’ Morgan (TBR)

 

I love Tre’ Morgan. Morgan is a baseball player, and that’s the best compliment you can give a prospect. His pitch recognition, in-game adjustments, athleticism, and overall attitude toward the game impress me. His maturity to choke up with two strikes is far beyond his years and reminds me of Reds great Joey Votto. The best part was that Morgan played a solid left fielder the entire fall despite being the best defensive first baseman in the minor leagues. Give me 26 Tre’ Morgans, and I’ll win many baseball games.

 

Xavier Isaac (TBR)

 

On the other hand, I was less impressed with Xavier Isaac. I’m a BIG Isaac guy and have him ranked higher than most in the industry. While the fall can be a drain on players who have already played over 100 games in the summer, Isaac had an opportunity to silence his critics. Instead, his strikeout woes continued as he whiffed 48.2% of the time. Isaac was able to show off his power with three homers, but to tap into it, you have to make contact, and Isaac needs to do it. But he’s still 20, so it’s far too soon to give up; maybe we tap the brakes a bit?

 

Niko Kavadas (LAA)

 

Kavadas was among the handful of AFL participants with MLB at-bats, although he struggled to a .183/.283/.333 slash line in 30 games with the Angels to close out 2024. Kavadas was named AFL Offensive Player of the Year after posting a 1.186 OPS with six homers, six doubles, and 18 RBI. Swings and misses continued to be a problem for Kavadas, who struck out 41.4% of the time in the AFL after whiffing 44.1% of the time in the big leagues. With the Angels in a complete rebuild, the 26-year-old first baseman should get plenty of looks in the majors this season.

 

Peoria Javelinas

 

Colt Emerson (SEA)

 

Although he officially departed the AFL on November 5th, Mariners’ top prospect Colt Emerson appeared in just 13 games due to a minor hamstring injury. Emerson was the hottest hitter in the AFL during the first week, going 11-for-20 with six doubles, six RBI, and a stolen base. Most of his damage was done in his first game, although Emerson still finished his fall with a .370/.435/.537 slash line with eight stolen bases and nine extra-base hits.

 

Ethan Salas (SDP)

 

I was slower than most to come around on Salas being a better real-life player than a fantasy asset. The kid was 17 years old and playing at Double-A when most kids in the US would still be high school juniors. We knew the bat wasn’t up to par, but we still criticized him, and some labeled him a bust. Salas wasn’t great this fall, but he showed that the bat is progressing more than we anticipated. Salas posted a .228 average with four homers, six doubles, and 21 RBI. While his strikeout rate was near 30%, he did walk at a 15% clip and showed better plate discipline than his stats would indicate. Salas will turn 19 on June 1st, and there is an outside chance he’ll celebrate his birthday as a big leaguer.

 

Kemp Alderman (MIA)

 

Ultimately, his new wife prevailed, and Alderman left his hot start in the AFL for marital bliss. In the nine games Alderman played, he mashed six home runs with a .306 average and a .833 SLG. The Marlins may give Alderman a shot this season, as the kid knows how to hit bombs, and the offense in South Florida could use a boost. Consider Alderman a single patty Jake Burger with just as many toppings.

 

Juan Baez (MIL)

 

Usually, Baez, who is 19, would be the youngest player on this team and maybe in the whole AFL. But with Salas and Leo DeVries also on the Peoria squad, Baez looks like a grizzled vet. The diminutive infielder had a nice AFL, slashing .295/.402/.474 with two homers and six extra-base hits. His frame has little projection left, but Baez has shown some raw power and a feel for hitting despite his size (5’10”, 175 lbs).

 

Leodalis De Vries (SDP) and Brock Wilken (MIL) are grouped together, as neither player had a great AFL. De Vries finished with a .179 average and two homers in 18 games but never looked overwhelmed or out of place. Instead, his athleticism and raw talent stood out despite undesirable results. On the other hand, Wilken struggled mightily. He slashed .155/.260/.310 with 32 strikeouts in 84 at-bats (38.1% strikeout rate), albeit with four home runs. This performance concludes a forgettable 2024 for the 18th overall pick in 2023.

 

Salt River Rafters

 

Caleb Durbin (NYY)

 

Durbin was all the rage in the AFL, even more so than MVP Josue Briceno. The 24-year-old Yankees’ farm hand showed off every tool in his bag this fall and will be a helium name entering spring training. Durbin was a solid offensive performer, slashing .312/.427/.548 with five homers and 21 RBI. Durbin walked 17 times compared to six strikeouts, reinforcing how impressive his hit tool is. Durbin set the AFL record with 29 stolen bases in just 24 games to cap it all off. That broke the previous record of 24 steals set when the league played a 50-game schedule. 

 

Tommy Troy (ARI)

 

A solid performance in the AFL was essential to Tommy Troy, and he delivered. The Diamondbacks’ first-round pick in 2023 battled numerous injuries this season and finally looked like himself this fall. Troy batted .290 with three homers and four steals, but most importantly, he got himself healthy for the first time in 2024. I was fortunate enough to see him play against Mesa during FPAZ, and Troy belted a monster home run onto the berm in left field, showing off the power stroke we knew he had. I’m excited to see what a healthy Troy can do in 2025.

 

Garrett Martin (NYY)

 

I added Martin to the list as he won the AFL Home Run Derby. Martin has a ton of raw power and belted five homers in the AFL regular season, in addition to the 26 he mashed during his winning performance. The 24-year-old had 12 round trippers across two levels of A-Ball this year in his first professional season.

 

Scottsdale Scorpions

 

Josue Briceno (DET)

 

Entering the AFL, any talk centering on catchers surrounded Salas and Briceno’s organization mate, Thayron Liranzo. That changed quickly, as Briceno put on a masterclass of power en route to a league-leading ten home runs, a unanimous selection as league MVP, and the first Triple Crown in AFL history. The outburst started with a three-homer game on October 11th, and Briceno never slowed. He finished the fall with a .443/.509/.867 slash line with five doubles, three triples, and 27 RBI, in addition to the homers. Briceno walked 15 times compared to 21 strikeouts and had a 1.376 OPS, the highest in AFL history. Briceno had a reputation as an above-average hitter, but his performance this fall grabbed everyone’s attention.

 

Josue Briceno @tigers with an opposite field double. He currently leads the AFL in AVG, SLG, OPS, HR, HITS and RBI. His knowledge of the zone is top notch and can pull for big power or like here, drive it to opposite field. #ProspectOne pic.twitter.com/VDkGfXQhOu

— The Welsh (@IsItTheWelsh) November 14, 2024

 

Drew Gilbert (NYM)

 

Gilbert had decent results this fall. The good was finding his power stroke to mash four homers while posting a 23.6% walk rate and .380 OBP. His .208 batting average wasn’t great, but Gilbert looked healthy and was moving well after a hamstring injury cost him over three months of the 2024 season.

 

Jett Williams (NYM)

 

Gilbert’s teammate, Jett Williams, is a tough player for me to assess. I try hard to believe in his talent and athleticism, but the more I watch, the more flaws I see. In a prospect battle last offseason, I was pro-Williams and thought he had staying power despite his size. After all, Williams had shown elite in-zone contact skills (90%) in the lower levels. Those contact skills regressed horribly in the upper minors this season and didn’t improve during the AFL, as Williams struck out 30 times in 80 at-bats (37.5%). On the plus side, Williams swiped seven bags and walked around 20% of the time.

 

Thayron Liranzo (DET)

 

If I had to pick the Tigers’ catcher who would be the AFL MVP, I would have chosen Liranzo 99 times out of 100. Liranzo was red hot entering the AFL after finishing his 2024 season by hitting .315 with five homers and 20 RBIs in August and September. Liranzo was fine; he just wasn’t Briceno. The 21-year-old slashed .375/.492/.667 with two homers and six doubles in 15 games and mashed a three-run homer to win the Fall Stars Game and game MVP. The biggest takeaway for Liranzo was an impressive defensive showing behind the plate, according to my friend Chris Clegg.

 

Surprise Saguaros

 

Jac Caglianone (KCR)

 

Cags had a slow start to his professional career, struggling slightly at High-A to close 2024. He looked much better in the AFL, showing off his patience at the plate and reminding everyone that his power is legitimate. Caglianone belted five homers and four doubles but posted just a .749 OPS. Now that he’s settling in, I expect a huge offensive season from Caglianone in 2025.

 

Creed Willems (BAL)

 

Willems is a ton of fun to watch and easily had the best hair in the AFL. The 21-year-old Orioles’ catching prospect showed a polished offensive with a simple swing that drove the ball to all fields. Willems finished with a .338 average and .891 OPS in 19 games, which included two homers, five doubles, and an excellent triple (video below).

 

Creed Willems triple! Look at this man fly! pic.twitter.com/B8o86ZlEaP

— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) October 19, 2024

 

Chase DeLauter (CLE)

 

I wonder why the Guardians sent DeLauter for round two in the Desert. While he missed significant time for the second straight season, the risk of reinjuring that foot again significantly outweighs the 47 at-bats he accumulated this Fall. His second stint will ultimately be a success, as DeLauter left the AFL healthy. In his 12 games, he hit .340 with one home run and five doubles, adding in 12 walks compared to just six punchouts. When he’s healthy, DeLauter is a no-doubt top-10 prospect.