With rosters mostly set, Spring Training in full force, and the WBC taking center stage for a few days, it looks like the perfect time to size up how each division could fare in the upcoming season. Having already looked at both Central divisions, we are using every Wednesday up to Opening Day to talk about the state of every team and division around MLB, using Steamer projections to give us an idea of how depth charts and competitive cycles are lining up in 2026.
Today, we turn to the AL East, a division famous for its intense competition and the high quality of its clubs. Fittingly, it is the only division baseball projected to have all of its members at .500 or better, with several of them considered among the best teams in the league. Toronto’s pennant-winning 2025 has upped the ante for the rest of the division, and the combination of home-grown talent and deep pockets in the East has almost assured that we will see a 12th straight season with multiple of its teams playing in October.
Tampa Bay Rays – 2025 Record: 77-85 – 2026 Projection: 81-81
Only two seasons removed from fielding a 99-win juggernaut, the Rays have stepped back significantly, posting back-to-back losing campaigns for the first time in a decade. The previous losing era for the frugal Rays resembles the team’s current reality in the sense that the front office appears keenly aware of their spot in comparison to their Eastern peers, and thus show no shame in committing to a deep rebuild and stockpiling as much young talent as possible. An offseason that saw Tampa complete several trades involving their longer-tenured players was par for the course, and now the challenge to build a contender is truly beginning.
With Junior Caminero playing like a superstar at the tender age of 22, the Rays at least appear to have a true cornerstone to build around, even as the rest of the 26-man roster is not as particularly young or talented. Tampa’s top prospects are still years away from the Show, and instead the front office will rely on solid-but-uninspiring veterans like Cedric Mullins and Gavin Lux, with the hopes that 2025 holdover Jonathan Aranda can regain his power and team legend Yandy Díaz continues to be an OBP machine. The Rays as constructed are almost sure to be the worst offense in the East by a significant margin, and now need an inspired effort from their run prevention squad to sniff their .500 projection.
The Rays need Cedric Mullins to forget his past glory and be himself https://t.co/CfDAzEMdHF
— Sports by Tampa Bay Times (@TBTimes_Sports) March 3, 2026
Long known as a pitching development machine, the Rays will start the season giving serious playing time to the likes of Steven Matz and Nick Martinez, which is less than ideal. Even considering Drew Rasmussen’s mid-career renaissance as a starter and Ryan Pepiot’s development, the biggest X factor comes in the form of Shane Mclanahan’s return to form, which could either fuel an unlikely Wild Card run or at least serve as prime trade bait around the deadline. With intriguing bullpen arms all around the roster and manager Kevin Cash at the helm, Tampa should at least remain respectable on a daily basis, while their return to playing home games in a dome, with a regular schedule, should provide a boost following their weird 2025 situation. Despite all this uncertainty and low expectations, be sure that the Rays are perfectly content with the situation.
Baltimore Orioles – 2025 Record: 75-87 – 2026 Projection: 84-78
Fun fact: the Baltimore Orioles are the most recent AL team to post a 100-win season, when their 101-win effort in 2023 looked certain to be the telltale sign of great things to come. However, that memorable season was followed by two straight unceremonious playoff exits and then a disastrous 2025 that included a change in manager and the sudden realization that maybe not every one of Baltimore’s young players was developing as expected. To the front office’s credit, Baltimore did not simply shrug off 2025 as a fluke, instead showing plenty of resolve to improve the roster all around. The fate of the 2026 Orioles is far from clear, though, as the O’s could become the ultimate high-variance team of the upcoming season.
Pete Alonso homered in his first Baltimore Orioles spring training game pic.twitter.com/HW2EhAPtNm
— Metsmerized Online (@Metsmerized) February 20, 2026
Signing Pete Alonso to a multi-year deal was a clear declaration of intent, especially as the Orioles had not been a major player in free agency for several years. Fellow signee Taylor Ward should also help in the power department and with the purpose of raising the offense’s floor, as these two proven veterans look like the right kind of complements for the still-young Baltimore core. Jackson Holliday’s injury to start the season is not ideal, but Gunnar Henderson is projected to battle for the MVP and Adley Rutschman is a natural bounce-back candidate after a humbling 2025. Even as Alonso’s deal is bound to be an albatross on the back end, his power should pay early dividends at Camden Yards, and it is always encouraging to see a team like the O’s unafraid to spend big with the goal of competing with the big boys.
The biggest question mark, as it is customary in Baltimore, remains firmly on the pitching side of things. Adding former division foes Chris Bassitt and Shane Baz was a step in the right direction, but those moves were probably offset by the confounding decision of giving up on Grayson Rodriguez, long considered to be the organization’s lone pitching development success. Rodriguez was coming off a scary injury, so the move is defensible in some ways, but the Orioles do not look like the kind of team that can let go of young, intriguing arms. The addition of Ryan Helsley to close games also looks like a solid plan for a club trying to win now, and so Baltimore must now hope for a bit of injury luck and sheer regression to make 2025 a long gone memory. The projections are conservative for now, but there is a path towards 90+ wins and challenging for the division title.
Boston Red Sox – 2025 Record: 89-73 – 2026 Projection: 86-76
The Boston Red Sox probably have the best starting pitcher in the East with Garrett Crochet, the most reliable closer as Aroldis Chapman looks as menacing as he ever did, and a lineup full of reliable bats ready to grind professional at-bats. They are managed by the battle-tested mind of Alex Cora, coming off their first playoff appearance since 2018, and projected by many outlets to take a step forward in 2026. And yet, even with all these factors working in their favor, why do the Red Sox look so uninspiring compared to most AL contenders?
This is a tough, multi-layered question, but it all could be summarized by how the organization failed to retain Alex Bregman after being outbid and outmaneuvered by the Chicago Cubs. For all intents and purposes, Bregman had been a key factor for the success of 2025, adding veteran presence and a solid bat to a team that needed it badly. His absence will be felt now that the lineup is full of slightly above-average hitters, but lacking a clear star that can carry the team through tough stretches. Roman Anthony has shown flashes of his potential, while the likes of Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela have settled into nice complementary bats, but last year’s painful playoff loss to the Yankees should have been the catalyst for a higher sense of urgency from ownership, whereas this lineup looks far away from it.
Boston Red Sox fans now realizing they lost both Alex Bregman AND Rafael Devers.
They traded Rafael Devers to let Alex Bregman play third base thinking he would sign long-term but leaves for the Chicago Cubs 💀 pic.twitter.com/tSy8dciL4b
— js9innings (@js9inningsmedia) January 11, 2026
Boston was at least active on the pitching front, adding veteran help in the form of lefty Ranger Suárez in free agency and Sonny Gray via trade, creating a deep, high-floor rotation that should keep them competitive more often than not. The plan is clear for the Sox, with pitching and defense leading the way, but that seems ill-advised in a division full of mashers and teams with high expectations. While earning at least 81 wins and battling for a Wild Card looks like the absolute worst-case scenario for this squad, the ceiling is not that far from that baseline, and it would not be shocking to see Boston falling to fourth place when it’s all said and done.
Toronto Blue Jays – 2025 Record: 94-68 – 2026 Projection: 86-76
The Blue Jays took their first division title in a decade, then won the pennant for the first time in 30 years, and came two outs away from winning it all, becoming a fun, fan-favorite sensation in the process. Instead of staying put and hope for the best, Toronto has doubled down in its efforts of getting over the hump, flexing their financial muscles while also taking advantage of the fact they look like a genuinely fun team to play for. The nature of projections has placed them as the presumed second place in the East, but it is abundantly clear that the Jays are one of the best teams in MLB, with a realistic shot of pulling a 2015-Royals-like revenge tour.
The sting of the painful World Series loss was quickly replaced by the addition of Dylan Cease, who became the first big-ticket free agent to sign during the offseason. Cease was part of a new crop of Blue Jays, which include inspired signings like the underrated Tyler Rogers, complete wild cards like KBO repatriate Cody Ponce and NPB star Kazuma Okamoto, and heartwarming returns like Max Scherzer. Even as Toronto had to make the tough choice of saying goodbye to erstwhile star Bo Bichette and also lose several of its role players that were instrumental in their deep playoff run, it is clear that the roster is loaded.
It’s March. Guess What? 👀
We return home to start the season THIS MONTH! pic.twitter.com/zC2Yd0ijKI
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) March 1, 2026
Vladimir Guerrero Jr’s ascension to superstar status was probably the biggest story of the 2025 playoffs, George Springer looks like a nice bat to keep defying Father Time, and Alejandro Kirk is entering his prime years as a true two-way force at catcher. While the offense as a whole could become inconsistent at times, Toronto has built arguably the best rotation in the AL, with Cease joining Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Shane Bieber, and the first full season of Trey Yesavage. The closer situation will be interesting to monitor, with the Jays needing Jeff Hoffman to recover his confidence after an subpar opening season that culminated on a blown save at the worst possible time. Seeing how aggressive the front office has become, expect reinforcements if the roster needs them. The window is wide open for Toronto, and they are primed to become must-see TV in their quest to win it all.
New York Yankees – 2025 Record: 94-68 – 2026 Projection: 87-75
For all the hype surrounding the Blue Jays, it is important to remember that the Yankees matched their win total in 2025, only losing the division title due to their head-to-head tiebreaker. That key distinction played a huge role in the playoffs, as the Yankees were overmatched against Toronto and bowed out in the ALDS, allowing 34 runs over the 3-1 series defeat. With the team’s pennant drought now reaching 17 years, many expected New York to be involved in all relevant free agent discussions and possibly seek a new identity. Instead, the roster looks mostly unchanged, with the team retaining most of its top free agents and giving manager Aaron Boone yet another chance to bring glory back to the Bronx.
The Yankees will start the season hoping that Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole can make a quick and healthy return to the rotation, as their status could prove paramount for a staff that could end up relying on middling arms like Luis Gil and Will Warren to cover a serious amount of innings. The emergence of Cam Schlittler as a potential ace and Max Fried’s status as one of the best lefties in the league provide a nice cushion, while the David Bednar–Camilo Doval tandem to close out games could end up becoming a major weapon for this ballclub, but the staff as a whole looks shorthanded when compared to other AL contenders.
A behind the scenes look at Gerrit Cole pitching his bullpen session today! Still aiming for late May or early June for a return! 🎥:@BryanHoch pic.twitter.com/NJ5ybuASCQ
— The Pinstripe Bugle (@PinstripeBugle) March 3, 2026
Aaron Judge’s presence, as usual, provides a good start for the Bombers, while the returns of Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham became more and more necessary as the offseason progressed, but this aging lineup appears to be an injury or two away from falling apart. The youth infusion from the likes of Ben Rice and José Caballero is bound to help, while Jazz Chisholm Jr. Jr. continues to embrace the spotlight of being a Yankee, but the team’s bench is thin and any early losing streaks should create an inordinate amount of pressure for both the manager and the front office. Regardless of what the projections say, the Yankees look more like a Wild Card contender than a true threat for the pennant, even as it becomes increasingly apparent that only a disaster season would be the catalyst for major changes.
