Happy baseball season and by “baseball season” I mean “overreaction season”! This time of year, it’s relatively easy to think of players to buy, basically anybody who hits a home run, right? Time to add Austin Slater, post-haste! Just kidding… I think. I promise, no April Fool prank recommendations.
The point is finding the buys is the easy part. The tough part is, who to drop? I mean for the most part, that takes care of itself, since there’s a ton of injuries and even surprise demotions (see: Evan Carter) that make things pretty clear. But when you don’t have that, you get some tougher choices that often come down to your team’s specific needs, or in leagues with a limited IL or no IL, how many injury stashes you can afford (and I rarely write about injured guys).
I’ll do my best to point you in the right direction in these wild seas anyway, because our months of meticulous draft planning all tend to fall into disarray and chaos in the first month, and my habit of poring over small samples doesn’t help. It is still April, and hardly April at that, but that doesn’t mean that there isn’t some signal in the noise… I’m just not going to call four-homer Wilmer Flores an all-leagues must-add, okay? Let’s choose wisely and not sweat the unwise drops, and best of luck to you all!
BUY
10-team
Austin Wells (C, New York Yankees)
Fantasy players literally want one thing and it’s freaking disgusting. Catcher at-bats! Seriously, two-catcher leagues are even more depraved, if not outright masochistic…and yes I love them. That’s the name of the game, and catcher is the one position that almost always bats at the bottom of the lineup, making it harder for them to rack them up. So when one is batting leadoff, even against just one handedness, you want that guy. Especially when they’re also coming off a great spring, have little to no competition (unless you think they want Ben Rice to play catcher much), and in a hitter’s haven (possibly also torpedo-bat aided?)
One of the biggest late catcher risers of the spring, the 25-year-old Bronx Bomber has already popped two dingers in just 12 PA, although they happen to also be his only hits… I’ll take it. While it’s way too early to rely on any stat, he’s continued his spring trend of high ISO and a strong contact rate, with a hilarious 100% Z-Contact% and 81% overall contact%, and with his disciplined 24% chase%, he’s probably safe hitting atop one of the most dangerous lineups right now. I expect him to perform like a top 12-catcher the rest of the way, and maybe even top 8 in OBP formats, and #1 in pitcher-catcher mustachioed Yankees with the last name Wells leagues, assuming David Wells’ old stats still count.
Lars Nootbaar (OF, St. Louis Cardinals)
Noot is more than he was in 2023-2024, and Noot is also more than just the sound Pingu makes. I’m kicking myself for ending up with zero shares of him after I got spooked by ho-hum projections despite concluding he should break out this year given his strong process stats of elite HardHit% (49% in 2024) plus a double digit walk rate and sub-20% K rate. He’s tearing the cover off the ball with a 67% HardHit% and two jacks in just 19 PA. His BB/K is an outstanding 5/1, and some reports indicate increased aggressiveness deserves credit for that. I think it’s still too early to say that as his 55% Z-Swing% is still too passive and in line with career norms, but I do love his early perfectly equal LD/GB/FB distribution, which means a big reduction in grounders. Too early, I know I know.
Still, if he can just stay healthy, he could legitimately be a top-20 OF in OBP formats even if he doesn’t manage to steal double-digit bags just from hard contact applied often, with which even a mild improvement in launch angle could resemble Yandy Diaz’s 2023 plus a handful of nabbed bags. That’s a near-ideal outcome, yes, but there’s a lot of paths to a highly valuable season that aren’t quite that elite. Just make sure you have a plan for if he does get hurt, because like Yandy, his impressive muscularity does pose some danger to his flexibility. Add Mr. Gootbaar in all 12-teamers and 10-team OBP formats.
Kristian Campbell (2B, Boston Red Sox)
Yes, I know, you kinda have to be living under a rock to have slept on adding him the first week. But I try to also give space to those who play in ESPN leagues. And, like, other casual shallow leagues. Campbell has put his lackluster spring behind him (maybe since it turns out it was never actually a competition) and hit .375 with a homer in 20 PA so far. While there are some early warning signs in his mediocre 69% contact rate and 72% GB%, I do expect him to be the kind of player who will get better and has enough contact, power and speed that you kind of need to trust the process, though keep in mind that if you end up with a 2024 Luis Garcia Jr. -type outcome you should be thrilled, he’s still a rookie, after all.
Victor Scott II (OF, St. Louis Cardinals)
To the Victor the Steals- I mean, spoils. Not only did the guy who stole 100 bases in the minors a couple seasons ago earn a spring training win for playing time over his competition, he is also showing improved power with two barrels and a homer to go with 4 SB and a .350 AVG. And this is following a spring in which he hit for that same average with 4 HR and 5 SB. So far he’s also showing an improved contact rate of 83% with better discipline leading to a strong 8% SwStr% and an elite 21% CSW%. While I’d still remain skeptical for some other players, for someone to showcase these skills when he can also imitate Esteury Ruiz’s 2023 on the base paths mean you must add him now and see if he can keep it up.
12-team
Wilyer Abreu (OF, Boston Red Sox)
Wilyer may win for the most video game-esque surface stats, with a .636/.750/1.364 with 2 dingers, 1 SB, 5 R and 6 RBI in just 16 PA. Oh, and a 31% BB% with a 0% K%. LOL. Keep in mind that means he only has 11 actual ABs, which could be the amount from two long games. Still, it’s pretty incredible that he hit 3 barrels in that time, with 5 hard hit balls, out of 7 total hits, in 11 AB. The early per-pitch metrics also show improved plate discipline and contact, which all could continue, but what really matters is that after his late spring health scare, is that he’s healthy and playing every day, at least until Roman Anthony comes up (provided he’s not forcing someone else to give up their playing time). If he’s still available for some reason, regardless of depth, he’s doing enough awesome things at once to make him a must-add.
Spencer Torkelson (1B, Detroit Tigers)
In most leagues he’s probably already been scooped up thanks to his hot spring, but if you’re in a league of people who ignore spring, perhaps they’re perplexed by Tork’s sudden re-emergence and hot start. So far, he’s hitting .429 with a sock and a shoe in 19 PA with his 5 Ks balanced out by 5 walks. In spring, he managed 5 jacks and a stolen base with a .340 AVG and 20% K%. While it’s too early to overreact even to per-pitch metrics like contact rate, I think he still may be a buy-high as some owners may be looking to make a quick low-risk flip, and perhaps that 26% K% still seems too dangerously close to his mediocre 28% rate in 2024. Also, he hasn’t hit the ball super hard in the regular season and hasn’t hit a barrel yet.
That said, 97%. What is 97%? That’s his contact rate so far. Again, small sample alert! But still, the discrepancy makes me think he still offers intrigue beyond his big spring, and perhaps could set a career-best in batting average (granted, that would be topping the .233 mark from his 31-homer season in 2023, so not so hard). Compared to other guys like Ben Rice, Tork has at least had full-season success.
Tyler Soderstrom (1B, Oakland Athletics)
When you’re making every pitch look like meatballs, you may be ordering up a Soderstromboli. Soderstrom was one of my favorite offseason targets thanks to his underrated high barrel rate combined with an impressive 84% Z-Contact% and league-average 28% CSW%. This spring he kicked it up a notch with a 9% K% backed by an 83% Contact% and an elite 22% K% over 53 PA, and even stole two bases! He made a big splash with a double-dong debut and then a third homer, and now with a .368 AVG.
It seems since the season started, he’s pared back the contact but stepped up the power with 3 barrels, a 75% HardHit% and a ridiculous 100 mph average eV. The contact is down to 68%, but I expect all of this to level out, and early results seem to indicate that Sacramento will indeed be a hitter’s haven, meaning he could be an easy 30-homer threat and threat for 35, and he might have a decent average and maybe even a couple stolen bases to boot. If only he can get catcher eligibility too (Yahoo leagues take note), he could be a top-5 option. Crazy to think we left him for dead when he’s still just 23.
Otto Lopez (2B/3B, Miami Marlins)
I have been continuing to ride the Otto Lopez hype train since mid-2024, and he keeps chugga-chugging along like he’s Ottomatic. He’s hitting .400/.478/.700 with 2 dingers and 1 stolen base, and perhaps the most surprising part of that is he’s showcasing more pop than wheels. While I don’t expect that to continue since, just a guess, but I doubt that 39% Line Drive% is sustainable, he is showing he is once again being underrated in his ability to barrel the ball with 2 barrels already, and seems like so far he’s lifting the ball more than last year, with his GB% down to 33% from 54% last year. Fewer grounders, more liners seems like a good strategy.
Even without this hot start, I personally felt he should’ve been taken more seriously from the jump given projections all expected him to hit above .270 with about 15 SB despite all projecting him under 500 PA, something he should easily surpass with that performance and the lack of competition. He’s a must-add in all 15-teamers but I’d argue a fine 12-team add as well, though I don’t think the double-digit walk rate is here to stay.
15-Team
Hunter Goodman (C/OF, Colorado Rockies)
Of all of the spring hitter transformations, Hunter has been my top target. You can say what you want about spring stats not mattering, but when a player who managed a 29% K% in 2024 and then in Spring had an 8% K% in 50 PA (and also double the walk rate), that is undeniably something. The large amount of playing time should’ve been a clear sign they were interested in him playing more regardless of what the brass were saying about Stallings still being the starting C. Now on the young season, he’s hitting .313 with a homer in 16 PA. That’ll do.
Early on, he’s been much more aggressive with a 68% Swing% compared to a mere 53% Swing% last year, and while he’s still whiffing a fair amount, it seems he may have held onto some of the spring contact rate with a 75% overall contact rate. Given the fact he’s playing at catcher and also doesn’t have stiff competition in the OF, he should be a regular or at least playing 4/5 games or so, which is the same or more than the typical catcher. Given his favorable home park and a history of 30+ HR seasons in the minors, he’s worth adding in all two-catcher formats but also a fine spec add in all 15-teamers and even single-team 12-teamers, especially with a deeper bench.
Gavin Sheets (1B/OF, San Diego Padres)
It’s great to see Sheets come to San Diego seeming freshly laundered. He’s hitting .500 with 1 HR and 1 SB in 15 PA with a 13% K%. We’ve seen this before from Sheets, these hot streaks before crashing to mediocrity. But a few things are different this time. One, the Padres probably really need him to play, with Arraez scuffling a bit to start the year and losing Profar in the offseason to Atlanta (and then Atlanta losing him after getting popped for PED’s for 80 games). Two, he’s always seemed to have potential for more, given his huge size and pedigree suggesting more power upside than he displayed in Chicago. He’s a sleeper for a .270 15-18 homer season if he can unlock a new level with a new, less dysfunctional team, and even if he’s more of the .240 12 homer type, that can be a solid stopgap while he’s getting playing time and you’re searching for a new option.
Jake Mangum (OF, Tampa Bay Rays)
I got my Hawaiian shirt, shades and mustache, and Tigers’ hat, because I’m Mangum P.I. Yeah, I kinda can’t believe I’m recommending him as an add in 15-team, but five-outfielder leagues can get pretty thin on the ends, okay? Mangum is currently 5-for-8 mostly thanks to a wild 4-for-4 game with 2 RBI and 2 SB that put him on everyone’s maps. But even before that, I liked him more than the other Rays’ recent callup Kameron Misner, since Mangum’s a bat-first player with a lack of power, whereas Misner’s a guy who can’t make contact, and I think the former is more primed for success in Tampa Bay’s current offensive environment.
No, he won’t keep this up, but I think he could be kind of like Jonny DeLuca with maybe a bit less power but more batting average (somewhere in the .260-.270 range) and 15-20 stolen bases if he can carve out regular playing time, and I’d probably rather have that than roster filler OFs like Jake Meyers and Tommy Pham right now. So at least in the short term, hang with the Mang.
Deep Leagues
Gabriel Arias (SS/3B, Cleveland Guardians)
An angel delivered a message via singing multiple opera solos, that’s how we ended up with Gabriel Arias. (BOO!) The Guardians talked about Juan Brito being their starting 2B, but nobody seemed to notice when the job suddenly fell into Arias’s lap on opening day. I basically bought into him in all my deep leagues for a very simple reason. In the spring, he hit an opposite-field homer at 116 mph. That’s it, no notes. Granted, he’s always had good power, as he had a 114 maxEV in 2023 and a 113 maxEV in 2024. And he still stunk in 2024 and made me rue the day I used my final pick in a 46-round Best Ball league on him instead of some other shortstop/outfielder named Jackson Merrill. Oops. Not his fault.
He remains a player whose ability is severely limited by his ability to make in-zone contact, and last year it was down to 73%, which even makes Christopher Morel blush. But I actually think Morel is a fun comp, as he also has multiple eligibilities and massive power overshadowed by lack of consistent contact. That upside combined with his youth (he just turned 25 last month) makes him a solid spec in AL-only formats and 30-team dynasty formats, and while I don’t recommend him yet in 15-team leagues, he’s a watchlist guy for utility options.
Justyn-Henry Malloy (3B/OF, Detroit Tigers)
Yeah, we don’t know much about him in terms of 2025 numbers, but he’s the latest call-up, he went 2-for-4 in his first game, was benched the next game. Roster Resource has him listed as the Tigers’ leadoff hitter, and that would of course be massively intriguing for him given his high walk rate and strong top half of the lineup. Add him in deep 30-teamers and AL-only formats as a spec play to see how things shake out since if this arrangement sticks, he won’t stick around on your wire.
Eric Wagaman (3B, Miami Marlins)
I hold the honor of most offseason BlueSky posts about Eric Wagaman on the face of the planet. I have no proof but I’m still fully confident in this. Roster Resource still lists him as a backup, but I’ll stick out my neck for him. I didn’t do Bold Predictions this year, but if I did, one of them was going to be that Wagaman was going to be one of the top 5 hitters for the Marlins, and I stand by it. While he’s not blowing the doors down with a .250 AVG and 1 HR in 16 PA, he’s showing much of the above average power (111 mph MaxEV in 2024) with league-average contact and above-average swing decisions. Do I think that makes a star? No. Do I think that he could be an above-replacement player who is more deserving of PT than more than half of the Marlins’ roster? Yes.
I went one by one on all of his competitors, and I’m fading DH Jonah Bride (zero power), fading 3B Graham Pauley (terrible whiff rate), and fading 1B Matt Mervis (same), and those are all viable avenues for him to play, and that’s not even getting into the similarly high bust risk OF/DH candidates in Stowers and Conine. Wagaman has already played two games at 1B so we know that’s a legitimate avenue. He’s also a league-minimum guy so it’s financially advantageous to play him over the youngins if his production is relatively the same. It’s a stretch, but in a perfect, perfect world, I could see him as a 1B/3B version of a diet Taylor Ward. In deeper leagues, that would be amazing. In reality, more likely if he earns full time reps he’s a solid .245, 16-20 homer hitter, which is still a haul in deeper leagues.
SELL
10-team
Triston Casas (1B, Boston Red Sox)
Well, I wrote two Red Sox as buys, I had to cancel it out to not get labeled a homer, right? The sample is small, and by small I mean tiny, but Casas has looked quite lost out there, and a bunch of other first baseman’s value have exploded (add Ben Rice to the names above as Buys). I mean, he’s hitting just .059 with no extra-base hits, which perhaps is only under-discussed due to Devers somehow being even worse. Casas meanwhile has had a contact rate decline for the third consecutive year to an untenable 66% Contact%, and an arguably even worse 71% Z-Contact% (80% tends to be the threshold to remain a successful MLB hitter for most of them). Not great, Bob!
He’s not hitting the ball with any authority either, with an 81 mph avg eV, a 20% barrel% and no barrels. Again, this I’m recommending as a 10-team drop, where the replacement value is quite high, which is why my full overreaction season suggestion is not quite so crazy. He’ll rebound, sure, but I’m not so sure even his rosiest projections put him above guys like Soderstrom or Tork that have similar power potential but with fewer injury concerns and positive momentum. If you wait much longer, your 1B options will get much thinner than they are now.
Nolan Arenado (3B, St. Louis Cardinals)
Lest I be criticized for just saying add the hot players and drop the cold ones, here is one hot player I think you may be wise to flip on the hype for an upgrade. He is off to a rip-roaring start hitting .400 with a homer, and folks are talking about how he’s increased his bat speed given some faster swings in spring training. Is that relevant? Maybe! But what’s also true is that despite his would-be career bests of a 17% BB% and 11% K%, he actually is making worse contact than ever in this tiny sample. His Z-Contact is down to just 87% with his overall contact down to just 78%, but the most alarming number is his CSW% which is a horrific 38%. How? Mostly from a pitiful passive 50% Z-Swing%. Is he going to the plate with dice and a blindfold?
This may be a total nothingburger, sure. I mean maybe he’s just getting warmed up or trying to wait for pitches to punish to really sting the ball. But he only had one homer all spring, and his 108 mph MaxEV and 31% HardHit% are the same as last year, so I’m going with the Occam’s Razor assumption we had a few months ago that he’s a player in a steep decline phase, and it’s more likely he continues to slip or merely tread water, and his 2024 water level was probably heading to a waste treatment plant, since a healthy fantasy roster can’t swallow that production. If you trade him now, someone will pay up in a trade hoping for a star bounceback, whereas if you wait another week or two and regression hits, you may just end up dropping him, okay?
12-team
Nolan Jones (OF, Cleveland Guardians)
One of my favorite reasons to roster him was dreaming of his 2023 power/speed fever dream, and hoping he is finally healthy this year. But nothing he did this spring was exactly reassuring of that, and the fact that the Rockies returned him to sender after a few years rental at the nadir of his value suggests that maybe he’s still not so healthy. While the Guardians’ park did play hitter-friendly last year, it’s still a far cry from Coors, and the Guardians’ more impressive OF depth also means he’s looking at a platoon role. While he has been at least making more contact in the first week, the fantasy juice is already starting to sour, enough to cut in all 10-team formats and 12-team AVG leagues.
David Hamilton (2B/SS, Boston Red Sox)
This one makes me sad as he was one of my more rostered players, but that’s on me for not pivoting fast enough when the Red Sox made their Kristian Campbell preference clear. Sure, he could struggle and Story can (and probably will) get hurt at some point. But right now, Hamilton is a glorified backup, and holding him waiting for him to get his big break simply isn’t viable in shallower leagues when there are so many other viable speedsters who actually have the playing time opportunity. I’d cut him in all 12-teamers and would consider cutting in 15-teamers, especially if someone like Otto Lopez is around, but maybe even if a low-tier starter like Arias has similar eligibility and is actually playing. Just, like, keep tabs on him and be ready to jump back in quick if the playing time opportunity arises again.
15-Team
Curtis Mead (2B/3B, Tampa Bay Rays)
The sweetest swing and the buzz of the spring, right? Well, it looks like this honey has fermented. As much as I love mead, the Curtis variety has been on the shelf, with only 6 hitless PA at the time of this writing. It seems we may have gotten two enamored on the spring stats without actually looking at the fairly obvious layout of how playing time will shake out, and Mead’s “victory” was simply being on the opening day roster, not being a regular. It seems to me his poor defense will at best keep him a small side platoon bat for now, which makes him unwise to roster in all but the deepest of leagues.
Jake Meyers (OF, Houston Astros)
With an ADP in the mid-400s, he was really only fringe relevant in 15-teamers and AL-only formats, but his continued struggles to put up a passable contact rate (70% Contact%, 79% Z-Contact%) make his batting average risk not worth the marginal power/speed combo. He’s streaky, so he could be a pickup later, but April is not the time to hold players with negative momentum and low upside. Be frank and throw him in the trash now in 15-teamers or you’ll be Oscar’s Meyers weiner.
Deep Leagues
Jacob Stallings (C, Colorado Rockies)
The Rockies actually made the right move for once, good for them. That’s bad news for Stallings though, as he really only had one path to deep league fantasy relevance and that was through volume, and Goodman playing catcher is now going to eat into that pretty heartily. Your investment was likely minimal, so don’t cry over this one.
Zach Dezenzo (1B, Houston Astros)
I still like Dezenzo in dynasty leagues as a long-term project as he still has big power. But right now, he has only been given 3 PA despite his strong spring, as the Astros seem to prefer the Altuve-in-left experiment with Rodgers/Dubon at the keystone, and it’s not worth holding him as he’s clearly been forgotten, and you can still find valuable 1B around. All’s well that Dezenz well.
