Welcome back to Buy & Sell, where this week’s theme is I suddenly love the Colorado Rockies and hate the Red Sox for some reason. Maybe there is some sort of glitch in the Statcast measures this year, but even though the Rockies are undoubtedly a terrible team, I think that the whole offense pretty much has been underperforming what the peripherals indicate (including Ryan McMahon who I didn’t add here). With a few strong power/speed options there, at least there’s still value to be scrounged from that mess, even though it’s really mostly just scuffling top hitters. When thinking of trade value, don’t forget to use the team and sentiment regarding said team to your advantage in trading. On to the list!
BUY
10-team
Ezequiel Tovar (SS, Colorado Rockies)
The youngster still hadn’t quite established his fantasy seniority, but now he’s certainly gotten the promotion Tovarsity. The buy-low window on him during the injury has passed, and I was annoyed both that I couldn’t write about him as I planned before the injury, and the fantasy teams I tried to pry him from wouldn’t give him to me. It still may not be too late to buy in though, as his 2 HR and 2 SB with a .265 AVG in 83 AB (88 PA) isn’t lighting the world on fire, especially since entering June there are players with double-digit homers and stolen bases affecting our biases. But even though the sample is still small, his expected stats immediately pulled me in, because they’re elite: An xBA of .309 and an xSLG of .537. Did we mention he also plays half his games in the best hitters’ park? No we didn’t, and yes I’m using the Royal We.
Now, the sample being smaller means this is less reliable, but digging deeper, the explanation seems pretty straight forward… he’s hitting the ball considerably harder than ever, but more importantly, he’s hitting for more contact… a LOT more contact. His Z-Contact% where most of the change has happened (the best possible outcome), with it up ten whole points to an elite 91% Z-Contact%, a big jump from last year’s merely average 81%. That changes his SwStr% from a cringe-inducing 19% to a passable 13%, and his CSW% from a below average 29% to an excellent 23%. Speaking of that last number, 23 is also his age, so while we still don’t know if this is sustainable, his prospect pedigree and the major improvements he’s already made make me bullish. And also realize we massively underrated him for hitting 26 homers as a 22-year-old just because he chases too much.
Even if his power output will be less than last year, I really wouldn’t be surprised if he hit .280 with 25 homers and 10 SB by season’s end, which is basically something we’d be happy with from Bo Bichette (though Tovar will lack his runs & RBI, to be fair). And if he keeps improving his contact, there’s a non-zero chance for a projection more like Corey Seager, who had similar concerns in his prospect days. He’s likely already rostered in most leagues with an IL, but it’s not too late to buy relatively low and target in 12-team OBP and 10-team batting average leagues.
Brenton Doyle (OF, Colorado Rockies)
Oh Doyle, it seems you’re in a car heading off a cliff. But any third grader could tell you that a .250 BABIP for a speedster who plays half his games in Coors is probably getting unlucky…. at least if you’re willing to pay the kid in Robux. Don’t use real money to buy fake money, kids, unless it’s investing in a crypto memecoin, of course. Anyway Doyle probably did benefit from some good luck last year, but Doyle really has deserved better than his disappointing .208/.269/.329 line that overshadows the more passable 4 homers and 5 stolen bases. I promise.
See, for one, Statcast agrees as it says he’s been unlucky to the tune of a .256 xBA and .446 xSLG that were better than his 2024 xBA of .254 and xSLG of .436. A quick glance of the peripherals explains why, as he has a higher barrel rate, a surprisingly potent 13% barrel%, with also a higher MaxEV and HardHit% with no change in launch angle. On the contact front, he’s also made strides with a career-best 77% contact% (a notable consecutive jump from 2024′ s 73% contact% and 2023 64% contact%.). The only areas he’s lost ground are his launch angle sweet spot% and his bat speed%, both of which I still consider to be relatively noisy and not well understood. His 94th percentile sprint speed is the same as last year, and once more hits start falling as they should, the profile will suddenly look a lot prettier. Buy low in all 12-teamers now since his ROS production could look a lot like Doyle last year if not better.
Taylor Ward (OF, Los Angeles Angels)
Yes, perhaps he is selling out for power a bit, but is anyone really complaining about 13 homers in 182 AB with a .320 AVG and 4 Taylor Taters this week? Yes, I know they are, but I choose to ignore them. Despite the batting average hit, he is still looking likely to hit 30 homers this year, and who couldn’t use 30 homers in their lives right now? Just know the streaks will drive you mad if you focus too much on them.
12-team
Brendan Donovan (2B/SS/OF, St. Louis Cardinals)
The redbird is wielding such a red hot stick, they say he’s changing his name to Brandin’ Donovan. The 28-year-old super-utilityman is cattle prodding opposing pitchers with a .419 average this week to raise his batting average to a eye-popping .330, with a solid but less impressive 3 homers and 3 stolen bases. And it’s probably worth mentioning that none of those homers or stolen bases are from the past 3 weeks. He also qualifies at 3 positions this year. And his jersey number? 33. I’m not going to lie, I didn’t know his jersey number before I typed this, and I was expecting this to be a great set-up to an anti-joke, and when I asked Siri for his jersey number I nearly spit out my coffee. Also because it reminded me of my Irish high school teacher Mr. Ryan who always pronounced that number “tirty tree”. Yes, this information was all absolutely relevant.
Donovan is not cheating his way into that batting average one iota, as his expected batting average is exactly the same at .330. While it’s worth noting that his xwOBA has actually been declining despite this hot streak, Statcast thinks he’s underperformed in terms of power with a .509 xSLG, though it doesn’t think he’s been unlucky in terms of homers. Donovan just seems to be an 80-grade makeup player, who makes incremental improvements every year with improving plate skills with a career-best 24% CSW%. But what’s more impressive is him maxing out his limited tools by managing a career-best 7% barrel and 41% HardHit% despite an 8th percentile bat speed, thanks in part to a 96th percentile launch angle sweet spot, not to mention the 3 bags despite below-average speed.
I do think he also may perform better than he has thus far in OBP formats, as he has a career-best 23% O-Swing% but up until now pitchers have felt comfortable challenging him in the zone with a career-high 56% Zone%, meaning the ball’s simply put in play too often to reach ball four. But if he keeps hitting, pitchers will start to fear him more, though his poor 61% Z-Swing% is still too low and partially explains why pitchers still feel like it’s worth the risk. Much like Luis Arraez, batting average carries the profile, but I do think the fact he’s a double-digit homer guy instead of single-digit does make a difference, as well as his multiple eligibilities (in some leagues, he may also have 3B eligibility for 9 games played there last year. It may appear suspect, but in 10-team points or 12-team roto AVG and OBP formats, it’s time to accept the candy from unmarked DonoVan. Still better than what was in the Donner Van, that was the worst so-called “party” ever.
Jordan Beck (OF, Colorado Rockies)
Yes, I know the majority of his power/speed production came in a few games in which most teams were probably not starting him, but that doesn’t really matter projecting him forward, now does it? He still has 8 homers and 5 SB with a .254 AVG in 144 PA, and while Statcast initially wasn’t a fan of him, his expected stats now support the production, with a .258 xBA and .533 xSLG fueled by his fantastic 18% Barrel%. To me, he seems quite like this year’s Nolan Jones, with impressive running backed by 87th percentile sprint speed. He’s probably rostered, but you might be surprised to find the team may still be anchored to the initially skeptical analysis and flip him for a lower cost than you might expect. The raw production has outearned Doyle, so I understand the argument for him being a 10-team add already, and I applaud it as a spec, but I do lean to other power/speed assets who have already demonstrated being able to keep it up for a full season.
Miguel Vargas (3B/OF, Chicago White Sox)
Oh hey, it’s another visit from the guy I dropped in multiple 30-team dynasty leagues back in April, here to haunt my dreams and taunt my stupid face. He’s been cooking with VarGas, hitting .333 with 3 homers in 27 AB this week, and he’s only struck out 3 times in his last 42 AB. The combination of his dual eligibility with the fact that he’s basically just kept getting better as the season has progressed makes me wonder if he could finish the season as a top 15 third baseman by season’s end even with the lousy supporting cast.
15-team
Will Benson (OF, Cincinnati Reds)
It feels a little silly to mention him here since odds are he’s likely been snatched up, but I felt I needed to weigh in on whether this is a star breakout or just another Aristedes Aquino flash in the pan. And I really don’t know! NOT HELPFUL, BEN! Look, he’s clearly demolishing the ball with a 59% HardHit% and 25% Barrel% (6 total barrels), so in case he’s still available, take him first just because of that. Contact has always been his bugaboo, and last year it was horrific at 40%. But this year in a tiny sample it’s down to 27%, and backed by an improved 73% Contact%, which could totally work and a huge jump from his Gallo-esque 64% Contact% in 2024. While that’s encouraging, remember it’s still just been 37 PA, and this could easily regress as pitchers get more of a book on him.
Although the platoon situation hampers his fantasy value and it seems unlikely to change, I do think there’s enough here with the hot start and plenty of power, speed, and plate discipline that the best option is probably scoop him now and ride it out to see if he can keep it up. Because if he can keep the Contact% above 70% and the K% above 30%, he could still have a breakout not too dissimilar to Lawrence Butler (okay, a platoon Butler light, but still). Even if it regresses, he can at least be a savvy streamer to pick up during Reds homestands for the dingers.
Kody Clemens (1B/2B/OF, Minnesota Twins)
I took the plunge early on him in deep leagues when I saw his xBA was over .300 and xSLG over .600, and it’s all gone up from there. Now his xBA is an insane .355 and xSLG at .698, primarily fueled by 6 barrels (19% barrel%) a 63% HardHit%, and league-average K%. It’s still only 49 PA for the 29-year-old and his MaxEV of 109 mph is pedestrian, so I’m expecting there to be some heavy regression, and he’s still losing time to platoons. But that rare triple-eligibility makes him so valuable as a utility player that the journeyman really should be rostered in all 15-teamers at this point to see if he can keep any of this up.
Nolan Schanuel (1B, Los Angeles Angels)
He greatly improved his bat speed, so much that it’s now at… 5th percentile! Nevertheless, I think I already have a good comp, TRIVIA TIME! Another Angels 1B who played in the past 20 years who was a high draft pick who debuted at a young age with strong contact skills and walks but limited power. Who’s that? If you guessed Casey Kotchman, you win a pony!
Maybe there’s still more hope though, as his 110 MaxEV signifies maybe he can tap into more, and he’s been quickly improving as one of the top xwOBA 50 PA risers thanks to a much improved 13% K% that pairs quite well with his 12% BB%. He may not be flashy, but he will play and could finish the year as one of the best batting average plays at the position.
Deep Leagues
Carlos Narvaez (C, Boston Red Sox)
Investing in catchers you don’t know can be risky, but with Carlos there’s no need to get Narvaez. Okay yeah I think I was going for a “nervous/Narvaez” pun there but it’s confusing because you do need to get him in deep leagues, okay? His 5 homers are more legit than they seem with a sturdy 13% Barrel%, and there are no red flags in his Statcast sliders besides a poor LA sweetspot% despite a decent 13 average launch angle. It’s also important to note that he has excellent defensive metrics, and I’m starting to think he can push Connor Wong out of the lion’s share of at-bats when he comes back, especially since I was always skeptical of Wong to begin with. Given his no-name status, he’s on more wires than he should, and even if rostered could probably be had for a very low price, since he’s also viable in 15-team two-catcher formats.
Nick Sogard (2B/SS, Boston Red Sox)
Speaking of Red Sox journeymen, Sogard is the latest spaghetti to be thrown at the wall hoping his can stick. I once had a roommate who actually did that to tell if his spaghetti was ready, and I’m still not sure if this is a normal thing people do. Sogard has a decent xBA of .316 and that alone probably makes him worth considering. His strikeouts took a massive dive from 30% in 2024 to just 14%, and if he could keep that up he could me more than just ACME brand roster spackle.
D.J. Lemahieu (2B/3B, New York Yankees)
It certainly seems like he’s healthy (finally) as he has 3 hard hits out of 4 total hits in 15 AB since returning, and he would be more intriguing if he sacrifices some of his contact skills for more power. The team needs him and you can’t just forget his track record before the injuries took him out of commission.
SELL
10-team
Kristian Campbell (2B, Boston Red Sox)
Campbell’s numbers are suddenly looking less souper and more “Uh Oh, Spaghetti-0-for-4s”. How do you fix a slumping rookie second baseman? I know! Try him out at an all-new position in the middle of the season! Oh and can it also tie into drama surrounding the team’s star hitter? Great, thanks! Campbell’s strong start to the season overshadows just bad he’s been lately, with a .194 rolling xwOBA over his past 50 PA dragging down his actual and expected numbers. He had always been overperforming the metrics, but it looks pretty ugly now with a .236 xBA and a .391 xSLG. The strikeouts have been a pretty big part of that, as his K% has ballooned to 28%. The fact that while shifting through multiple tabs I saw his sliders and said “huh, that’s better than I remember it looking” and then realized I accidentally clicked on the page of Carlos Narvaez instead is probably not great for Campbell.
The best thing he has going for him is that the position has been pretty weak on the whole, and you could make a fair argument that catcher has actually been stronger than the keystone overall this year. In any case, in redraft leagues, you need to accept that while this could be just a cold streak before the real breakout, aside from above-average bat speed and a plus chase rate & walk rate, there’s really nothing very useful here. Despite the glowing reports all offseason, he never had really earned the job in Spring Training but was rather just given it, and so it’s not so surprising he’d struggle. He could still hit 15 or so homers this year, but I expect just a decent .240-.250 average with just a touch of stolen bases… and that’s probably worse in 10-team formats than someone available on your wire right now. I still consider him more a trade sell low than a drop, since there’s bound to be someone in your league remembering his scorching April or doesn’t understand the difference between keeper and redraft value and is willing to pay a premium.
Trevor Story (SS, Boston Red Sox)
He’s always been streaky, and at least he’s still healthy (I think). But wow, if you decided to cheap out on a power/speed shortstop, you’re feeling the burn now, as he’s hit just .164/.200/.209 with 1 homers and 3 SB over 67 AB the past 3 weeks. A .209 SLUGGING PERCENTAGE! In fact, he’s been the biggest faller in xwOBA over his past 100 PA, crashing hard from a .360 xwOBA to a lousy .228 xwOBA more recently. While looking at the season line of .232 with 6 homers and 9 stolen bases maybe still comforts you that it’s decent value for the low-ish 250 ADP, if he keeps this up he could start losing time to David Hamilton, who in just 64 on the season has hit 2 homers with 8 stolen bases and a .353 AVG over 34 AB over the past 3 weeks. Cut in 10-team formats and 12-team points and OBP.
12-team
Nolan Arenado (3B, St. Louis Cardinals)
He must be No LAN Arenado, because the strength of his connection is weaker and is dissipating through the air. Still sad I was never invited to LAN parties. Arenado is pretty much the same as he was last year, trading a lower strikeout rate for a worse launch angle sweet spot. Remember that last year he was quite mediocre, and without the promised bounce-back, it’s not worth your time in 12-teamers despite the name value.
Jo Adell (OF, Los Angeles Angels)
If his performance weren’t the problem, it certainly hasn’t helped that the Angels have taken to benching him over the likes of Lugo, Kyren Paris, and even Tim Anderson, who is still on the roster for some reason. Angels gonna Angel. Probably also didn’t help that he just made his 6th error in the outfield. I still believe in the talent if playing time remains, but given that this is the second straight year he’s underperforming his expected stats, perhaps there’s something we’re missing and he’s just a Mendoza line hitter.
15-team
Ryan Mountcastle (1B, Baltimore Orioles)
The good news is that Mountcastle has played. Quite a bit, in fact, with 31 AB this week and a .258 AVG. The bad news is that we were promised that the adjustment to Walltimore would allow Ryan to launch a trebuchet barrage, but alas, he’s hitting just .233 and only mounted the castle twice. I know he set a career-high MaxEV and expected stats this and that, but I’m starting to worry that he’s not going to have enough time left for the stats to even out. Ryan O’Hearn may be in a platoon but is hitting far better with the expected stats also supporting him more, and that’s not counting the multiple Triple-A mouths to feed. There also might just be something we’re missing in the numbers why he can never seem to match his solid peripherals.
Joey Bart (C, Pittsburgh Pirates)
I kind of accidentally cut Bart in a 15-teamer in April, and I must say I don’t feel as bad about it now. Bart has been eating his shorts with a .262 batting average undermined by pathetic counting stats, with just 1 HR, 1 SB, 7 R and 11 RBI in 153 PA. It’s true that the expected stats say he’s been unlucky and actually deserves better than he did last year, but don’t forget he also was lucky last year, and even if he’s hitting, the run production might still be awful on such a poor offense.
Deep Leagues
Angel Martinez (2B/OF, Cleveland Guardians)
I will admit I was pretty gung-ho on Angel upon his call-up as I saw indicators that he could have a real breakout thanks to better hard contact in the minors and surprising bat speed in his first week. But alas, just like most Angels, it was just a dream, and now he’s wrestled with declining power and batting average, not to mention playing time cuts… and that’s even before the impending return of Lane Thomas and David Fry. You might still get something for him in deep leagues thanks to his unsustainably high batting average, and I would try.
Patrick Bailey (C, San Francisco Giants)
Bailey must have been drinking with Old Gregg out of a shoe. Because unlike Bart, who has been a bit unlucky but still underwhelming. Bailey has just been all-around horrible. His HardHit% is down to a career-worst 32%, his contact% plummeted ten full points to 68%, and most oddly, his flyball% skyrocketed twenty points to an extreme 55%. Maybe he’s hurt, maybe he read a ten-year-old pamphlet on the launch angle revolution, maybe it’s Maybailey. Speaking of which, if you’re still rostering him, you’re getting twenty lashes.
