BUY
10-team
Jackson Merrill (OF, San Diego Padres)
If you stuck with him you’re a real Daniel Radcliffe and Merrilly you’ve been Rolling Along. I had been discouraged in May by Merrill’s lack of power which made him seem like a stretch to roster for this year in 12-team formats, but he’s finally tapped into his game power, hitting .333 with five HRs and two SBs in 45 ABs the past two weeks, more than doubling his home run total to eight. While some may laugh this off as a fluke, I think it could be meaningful, and he may even be the best power/speed Jackson debut this year.
For one, Statcast actually thinks he’s deserved better than his current line, especially from a power perspective, with a .297 xBA and .484 xSLG. I like his aggressive approach with his low whiff rate, even if a few more walks might help him rack up a better OBP and SB. But what’s most surprising with the Bat Speed coming out is that actually he has league-average bat speed (54th percentile), which is surprising for a contact-oriented 21-year-old. With continued adjustments, we could actually see double-digit homers the rest of the way as he nears a 2020 season and may have final numbers that look rather similar to Josh Lowe’s 2023 (except with perhaps 20-25 SB instead of 30). I think it’s time to take the chance on a potential star breakout here as he’s still young but also has a high floor in a great lineup. Add in all 12-team formats, and also is a decent depth add in 10-team AVG leagues.
Lane Thomas (OF, Washington Nationals)
He may have been a popular 2024 bust candidate in the preseason, but Thomas the Tank has stayed on track, hitting .228 with seven HRs and 16 SBs in 192 PA. His peripherals this year are actually all nearly identical to last year except for a less extreme pull rate, fewer groundballs and a slight increase in Contact% (79% to 82%). The reality is that while stolen bases are seemingly everywhere, there aren’t a lot of players whose overall production is reliable enough that you can count on them still playing even when they hit rough patches, but Thomas is one of those guys.
I’m expecting him to finish the season with about 16-18 homers and 30 SB, which is a step down from last year’s near-30/30 campaign, but it’s still solid 5-tool production (yes I do believe the batting average will at least be league-average or better from here on out). The low average .228 makes him a still-viable buy-low since they’re not seeing his .260 xAVG which changes the picture to make him a must-roster in 12-team and 10-team OBP formats.
Honorable Mention: Tyler O’Neill (OF, Boston Red Sox)
He can apparently still hit homers on one knee. I wouldn’t expect many stolen bases for a while, but Tylah is gonna keep flippin’ tatahs ovah dah Green Monstah. Similar in value to Giancarlo Stanton who is also a must-roster, he’ll probably still be streaky as heck and make you pull your hair out sometimes, but the good times will be worth the bad.
12-team
Joshua Lowe (OF, Tampa Bay Rays)
When it comes to fantasy upside in Tampa Bay, he’s the Lowe man on the totem pole. Because it’s actually good to be low on a totem pole, those are the most respected and secure, okay? Everyone gets it wrong! He’s been strung out most of this year with various side-related issues, so it’s expected he’ll need some time to get his bearings, and it’s worth pointing out that so far, his results have still been lackluster, to say the least. On the year, he’s hitting just .205 with three HRs and one SB in 78 AB, and since his return, he’s hitting just .143 with one HR and one SB in 28 AB, with 13 Ks. Forgive my armchair analysis but a 46% K% is indubitably bad.
Still, I think that while he definitely won’t recapture his magic season of 2023 this year, I do think he’ll be better and his power/speed combo will be useful. Somewhat surprisingly, he has a higher barrel rate and hard-hit rate this year despite making less contact on strikes and more contact off the plate. Normally I’d be very excited about him increasing both his quality and quantity of contact, as his overall Contact% of 74% is an improvement from last year’s 72% mark, but I do have concerns about his Z-Contact% dropping from 81% to 76%, since having a Z-Contact% under 80% tends to lead to more negative volatility. Still, given the fact that his surface stats are so far from last year and he’s getting cut even in some 15-team formats, he’s still close enough to last year in terms of peripherals to bet it levels out with more reps.
The biggest concern with Lowe has always been playing time, as he often sits against lefties, but with so many Tampa Bay hitters struggling this year, he actually might get tested against some lefties (which I think also makes sense with a young potential star hitter to give him a chance to avoid the Joc Pederson route. Add as a spec in 12-teamers in which he was dropped, though you might want to bench him for the first week til he really hits his stride. It should be worth the wait.
Wyatt Langford (OF, Texas Rangers)
I’m glad he’s on my wire, but I wonder Wyatt took so long for him to get the bat going. The return from the IL seems to have helped him with a bit of a mental reset, and he’s hitting .320 with a homer, seven RBI and six SBs in 25 AB this week. In many leagues he still has been rostered as teams understandably don’t want to cut a player they drafted as early as the 5th round, but given the lack of power thus far, you may still a chance to get him relatively cheaply, as homers generate more hype than stolen bases. But you are advised to act quickly as I expect him to have a multi-homer week soon that will revive the hype.
Honorable Mention: Joc Pederson (OF, Arizona Diamondbacks)
Joc is honestly one of the most consistent platoon players there is, and he’s rocking a 50%+ HardHit% for the third straight year, and actually stealing a few bases (4) despite what now is poor sprint speed (18th percentile). I think his 2022 line where he hit for good power and average is within reach and he’s a must-roster in all 15-teamers and worth streaming when steaming hot in 12-teamers (both OBP and AVG).
15-Team
Carlos Santana (1B, Minnesota Twins)
He gets no fantasy love because he’s old and boring, but he’s been one of the better AL first baseman, hitting .327.403/.618 with four homers, 15 RBI and two stolen bases (!) in 55 AB the past three weeks. It’s honestly pretty incredible how the now-38-year-old has managed to stave off Father Time, and in fact has better expected stats this year than he did last year in what was a quite cromulent season. He’s decreased his K rate for the third straight year, though I don’t think that’s so sustainable as he has a higher CSW% due to swinging at fewer strikes.
His biggest value boost compared to last year comes from still hitting in the heart of, and often clean up, in a much more potent Twins lineup, and his 37 RBI is among the leaders at the position. After hitting just a 78 wRC+ in April, he improved to 110 wRC+ in May, and so far in June he’s exploded to a 188 wRC+, so don’t get fooled by the ho-hum-looking season line. He’s also a completely viable roster in 12-team OBP formats.
Honorable Mention: Spencer Horwitz (1B/2B, Toronto Blue Jays)
I don’t expect this level of production or his spot in the leadoff spot to last too long with a 20% HardHit% and a rather pedestrian 27% CSW%, but he’s worth riding for average and OBP now since he faces six righties next week.
Honorable Mention: Jesus Sanchez (OF, Miami Marlins) – Rostering him has been as frustrating as he has not capitalized on the playing time increase despite peripherals suggesting a breakout is imminent. But hey, his hitting .292 with two homers this week, which is good enough confirmation bias for me to say it’s time to jump in before he has a much better second half in terms of both batting average and power.
Deep Leagues
Daniel Schneemann (2B/SS/3B, Cleveland Guardians
Little known fact: The Pentagon is running psyops to confuse baseball fans by simultaneously releasing utility players into the league named Schuemann and Schneemann just to generate mass confusion. But I’ve been sent from the future to tell you to Schue the Oakland version away. He’s come out of nowhere to nip at the heels of other regulars, after a strong minors campaign where he hit .294 with 10 HRs and four SBs in 223 in Triple-A before the call-up, and is hitting .370 with a homer and a stolen base in his cup of coffee. The Frankenshein of Davis Schneider and Emmanuel Rodriguez in name, he also has a combination of their skills at peak, as he has displayed double-digit walk rates at every level and an elite chase rate, but has also been hitting the ball quite hard with a 52% HardHit%.
One thing that intrigued me more than most journeyman call-ups is that he has a fairly decent if still below average bat speed and has very few weaknesses, with a base of skills I actually like more than Spencer Horwitz (more power and speed) and just needs some reps, which he has mostly found coming at the expense of the light-hitting Brayan Rocchio. I’d add him as a spec add in deep leagues already, but you’re also fine waiting to see if he can carve out a more regular or at least semi-regular role. But once he does, in AL-only and 18-team formats, be like Doug at the Arcade and get ready to Bag the Schnematode.
Honorable Mention: Lenyn Sosa (2B/SS, Chicago White Sox)
His overall stats don’t look impressive (.242/.280/.358 with 2 HR and 2 SB in 101 PA), but he’s been heating up lately, hitting .316 with all of his homers and SB having come in 57 AB over the past three weeks. The 24-year-old is a free swinger with a ho-hum K rate, but he’s been making hard contact (44%) while hitting the ball at ideal launch angles (44% LA Sweet Spot%).
Honorable Mention: Moises Ballesteros (C, Chicago Cubs) – I don’t usually recommend a player still in the minors, but he could be the next Ben Rice as both Yan Gomes and Miguel Amaya have been dreadful and Moises might not need long at Triple-A to be an immediate upgrade.
SELL
10-team
Ryan Jeffers (C, Minnesota Twins)
If he keeps struggling like this, he’s in line for an awkward interview with Zack Galifinakis on Between Two Jefferns. He has really been two different players from his first 100 PA to his second, and I had warned when I recommended him as a buy about a month ago that you had to ride the hot streak, but noted that the ugly peripherals would catch up with him at some point, and boy that didn’t take long. Sure, the 12 homers you can take to the bank, he’s been dropping in both average and playing time after hitting .192 with no homers over the past two weeks. The good news is that over that span, the typically-strikeout-prone catcher has not been whiffing, with a 2/2 BB/K over that span. But he’s been failing to hit the ball hard, with an uncharacteristically poor 30% HardHit% and even worse 85 mph average EV. Maybe that’s why he’s been one of the biggest fallers in rolling 100PA xwOBA, with a terrible .260 xWOBA over his last 100 PA.
I don’t know why he’s suddenly hitting so much more weakly, since we know his power ability is still significant with an elite 114 mph MaxEV at the position (last year he hit a career-high 117 mph). But perhaps he’s choking up, as many other power hitters have struggled to adopt a similar approach (Jack Suwinski and Yainer Diaz, for example). And now, he’s going to have fewer chances to break out of it as Christian Vázquez has started eating more into his playing time. Don’t get overly swayed by the lucky 12 dingers he’s already hit, and realize you’re probably better riding the single-catcher shallow league carousel than sticking through this slump with him.
Dishonorable Mention: Nolan Gorman (2B, St. Louis Cardinals) – The 15 homers and the hot streak were amazing, but he got lost again with a horrific .198 xwOBA over his last 50 PA. I will likely recommend him as a buy again soon, but I think he’s the kind of guy you have to treat like a double-decker bus tourist and hop off, wait as long as he needs to get hot again, and then hop on again.
12-team
Jeremy Peña (SS, Houston Astros)
It’s amazing how much a month can change things. He’s had a real Cinderella at midnight moment and turned into a pumpkin, and instead of being the .300+ AVG stalwart, he’s looking increasingly like the same dang boring regular we saw last year. I mean, can I say definitively that he’ll be better than Zach Neto or Masyn Winn going forward? Not really. Over the past three weeks, Peña has hit just .175 with no homers and three SBs (two CS) in 63 AB, and an even worse 1-for-17 this week.
The warning signs were always there if you could remember the important, yet, easy-to-forget, fact that expected stats like xSLG and xBA are only descriptive and not predictive, since even when he was at his best, his Barrel% was at a meager 4% which is well below average, and suggested that the average was mostly BABIP-fueled even with a modest improvement in K rate. I don’t think he’s at risk of losing playing time or anything, but I also don’t think that since he might not even top double-digit dongs this year, that he’s anything more than a solid team regular, which is the kind of player you stream right now in 12-teamers and don’t hold.
Gleyber Torres (2B, New York Yankees)
A few weeks ago I got flak for calling Gleyber a 12-team drop recommendation, so I guess I’d say I’m taking the W here aside from the fact I’m stuck with him in some leagues. He’s hit a horrid .056 in 19 AB this week and just .194 with two HRs in 67 AB the past three weeks. Given that he’s also not stealing bases and has just a .275 xwOBA over his past 50 PA (and a still poor .296 xwOBA over his past 100 PA). At this point, he’s at this point a must-drop in 12-team formats or at least a sell-low, and I honestly think you might be better off with some possible waiver wire options in 15-team batting average leagues. I’m leaving him here for now only because I haven’t personally had the guts to cut bait in my 13-team OBP, but he is on my bench and I’m exploring options.
Dishonorable Mention: Christopher Morel (OF, Chicago Cubs) – This one hurts because I was adamant that he would bounce back from his unlucky surface stats. But now his xwOBA has taken a dive and he’s earned his new struggles, so it’s time for me to take the More-L here.
15-team
Jo Adell (OF, Los Angeles Angels)
When it comes to slump types, Adell is really rolling in the deep. I really thought we were seeing a breakout in May as he displayed elite bat speed with a relatively short swing and seemed to finally have his strikeouts in check with elite quality of contact. Maybe it’s because he had cherry-picked matchups, because as soon as he got more regular PT, that cherry juice got extremely tart. He’s been striking out nonstop and as a result has had the biggest drop in 100 PA xwOBA in all of baseball, with a .241 100PA xwOBA compared to his previous 100 PA xwOBA of .393. He’ll still pop a homer or steal a base every now and then but I’d cut him for Kevin Pillar in redraft formats in a heartbeat because his batting average will flatline you. Or Mendoza line you.
Dishonorable Mention: Edmundo Sosa (2B/SS, Philadelphia Phillies) – He was always fighting an uphill battle for playing time when Turner’s impending return, but the fact he hit a funk immediately preceding his return sure made the decision easier for the team. He’ll now likely play just to give Turner and Stott occasional rest, making him an NL-only play at best.
Deep Leagues
Corey Julks (OF, Chicago White Sox)
As it turns out, he was the Incredible Julk mostly because his hitting has indeed not been credible. I believed a few weeks ago that Julks could be a solid streamer, but now with both Pham and Robert in the fold, he hasn’t been playing regularly and has been struggling when he has. He’s hit just .111 with one HR, one RBI and one SB over 36 AB the past two weeks and an even worse .091 with no HR or SB in 11 AB this week. He might be a fourth outfielder from here on out at least unless or until the White Sox finally cut Benintendi.
Dishonorable Mention: Willie Calhoun (OF, Los Angeles Angels)
I still think he would hit for a high batting average if he continued to play, as he still has elite IPA% and HC% so he didn’t really deserve to go from cleanup hitter to role player, but it’s what’s happened, so don’t get jiggy with Big Willie Style right now in the Wild, Wild, West.
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurtwasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)