Hey y’all, welcome back to Buy & Sell, where this week’s theme is, the dog days of summer are here, and it’s okay if it leaves you with your tail between your legs. That’s what happened to me this week, when I lost a pivotal Pitcher List legacy league matchup mostly due to forgetting to reset Yahoo’s stupid “Start active players” and missing my Schlittler and Ginn starts, so I replaced them with the last starter I had left… Kumar Rocker. Ouch. Now I’m facing relegation without a big win streak and some luck. I also forgot to get my Monday lineups in before lineup lock, including in a league where an injured Nick Kurtz for me is starting (and in this league I’m in 2nd, so that matters!). But in the end, there are 27 weeks, and you can make up for most mistakes… you just gotta get back on that horse. With that said, on to the list!
BUY
10-team
Bryson Stott (2B/SS, Philadelphia Phillies)
Stott may actually be developing power, but I wouldn’t go as far as calling him Tater Stotts. If you look at his surface stats, he looks like the same old 10 HR 25-30 SB guy he’s been for several years. But a look at his advanced metrics shows a player who is actually learning to tap into some power, despite just 8 homers to show for it. His bat speed and MaxEV have both been trending up for several seasons, and his current 41% HardHit% is the best of his career. What’s encouraging is he hasn’t had to sacrifice much of his high contact rate to get there, as his 17% K% is still excellent.
Over the past 50 PA, he has an outstanding rolling xwOBA of .487, which is the biggest improver out of any hitter in baseball. Granted, a lot of that has come just from drawing a crazy amount of walks with very few strikeouts: he’s hitting .478/.613/.652 with 8 BB and 1 K with 3 SB over the past week, and .359 with 16 BB and 3 Ks with 5 SB over the past 2 weeks. Maybe pitchers are legit scared to pitch to him right now… in the Phillies lineup? I can’t say that for sure, but I can say that with his SB ability combined with full playing time and a surging bat, I’d target him in all formats, since I do expect the final two months to be better than what we’ve seen so far and be quite the Stottenham Hotstpur. What? Nick said people were drifting to football!
Carson Benge (OF, New York Mets)
Why is he still just 57% rostered? I mean, I know he had some rough patches early on, but hey, it’s all about how Benge amends. There had been some debate for awhile of who was the better player to add between Benge and Ewing, but Benge is pulling away with flair after hitting .362 with 2 HR and 2 SB in 47 AB over the past 2 weeks. Statcast thinks he’s been unlucky with a .283 xBA, and he still has an outside shot of becoming a 20/20 player, though it seems 15/25 is more likely, and with a solid batting average, that’s quite alright too.
Honorable Mention: Zack Gelof (2B/3B/OF, Athletics) – After several unfortunate injuries, he’s back, and a homer in his first game back shows there’s no rust to shake off. Don’t hesitate to start in all formats and make sure he wasn’t cut, especially in limited bench leagues.
12-team
Brandon Nimmo (OF, Texas Rangers)
I’ve been in the swamp for a while telling you to add him and getting ignored, but I’m feeling like Doug Funnie, and I’m ready to bag a NimmoTold-You-So. It seems production may be finally catching up to his excellent expected stats, which include a .293 xBA (97th percentile), .504 xSLG (91st percentile), and 51% HardHit (94th percentile), as this week he’s hitting .435 with 2 dingers. Over the past three weeks, that’s still a strong .357 with four dingers and two stolen bases. Check if he’s still on your 12-team or 10-team OBP wire, because he shouldn’t be.
Nick Gonzales (2B/3B, Pittsburgh Pirates)
I’ve resisted as it seemed like he was lucky and felt wrong, but yes, I do think it’s time to consider Nick G as a viable 12-team add. He’s actually rated the #3 3rd baseman on the ESPN Player Rater (despite my bone to pick with them) but still solidly #11 on the Razzball player rater, and just below Arraez at #15 at 2b, after hitting .306 with 6 HR and 5 SB in 434 AB. While Statcast does think he’s been lucky with the batting average, I think at this point he’s earned benefit of the doubt and the Pittsburgh lineup and modicum of speed also doesn’t hurt… plus the position eligibility at two of the worst infield positions this year.
15-team
Cam Smith (OF, Houston Astros)
Did you see a flash? Because we’re in the Cam era. He’s been cut in many leagues but having an explosive week, hitting .500 with 3 HR in just 14 AB. That brings him to an inconsistent but intriguing .226 with 16 HR and 10 SB (2 CS) on the season, and I’d be inclinded to still bet to still bet on the very loud raw tools with a 99th percentile bat speed and 93rd percentile sprint speed, even though the expected stats, which initially indicated he was getting unlucky, have fallen to earth. Because I do think a player this young is still figuring it out but has the potential to be a league-winner in 15-team formats in which he was cut in frustration.
Coby Mayo (1B/3B, Baltimore Orioles)
One of the only Baltimore hitters worth a darn. Hitting .429 this week with just 4 Ks in 24 ABs, and he tattooed a ball 117 mph, showing the raw power is still there and maybe he can finally get his Ks down to a reasonable level (currently still bad at 33%). Risky but when he’s hot, he’s certainly playable with highly useful hot corner eligibility. Coby for 3B!
Abimelec Ortiz (1B, Washington Nationals)
Graduation time! Yes I know I wrote him up just last week, but I’m graduating him after putting on a clinic this week, with amazing hard contact data, and realizing I missed that he hit a MaxEV of 116 mph in Triple-A. That is SERIOUS exit velocity, especially for a prospect who was thought to be a solid but not great power bat. You want players on fire, so equip yourself with Abimoloch’s Beating Flame.
Deep Leagues
Tyler O’Neill (OF, Baltimore Orioles)
Lately when it comes to opposing pitching, he’s O’Nailled ’em. The oft-afflicted outfielder Tyler has a trio of tasty taters this week, and his playing time has been ticking up as he’s apparently one of the only Baltimore hitters who can actually hit a drive into the ball. And it seems it’s earned him playing time vs righties too (FINALLY), which I think he probably deserved from opening day, but certainly didn’t do himself any favors with his early cold snap. He’s now up to double digits though, and he could easily top 15 or more by season’s end if he stays locked in.
John Rave (OF, Kansas City Royals)
He’s hitting the ball hard. He’s got serious wheels. But he still doesn’t get no respect. The journeyman has more fantasy juice than the typical 28-year-old sophomore, and I certainly think he could do a Lane Thomas impression better than Thomas did this year, with a 17% barrel% (small sample) and strong 76 mph bat speed despite low HardHit%. Let’s get our rave on.
Eduardo Sosa (2B/SS, Philadelpha Phillies)
I’ve always had hope he could be more than Eduardo So-so. But this year he’s hitting just .218 with 5 HR and 3 SB in 196 PA, but Statcast thinks he’s been quite unlucky, with a .283 xBA and .443 xSLG. Then again, maybe it’s the expected stats which are the real fluke, as Sosa rates below average in every quality and quantity of contact metric. But it’s at least something mildly interesting for the super deep leagues where you’re considering someone like him.
SELL
10-team
William Contreras (C, Milwaukee Brewers)
How can I besmirch King William’s name like this? Well, for one, he’s no longer King William, not even a Prince… maybe a distinguished nobleman William at best. He’s hit just .185 with 1 HR and 2 RBI in 65 AB over the past 3 weeks, which is simply brutal for teams depending on him with an early-round pick for production. He’s Yainer Diazed, as a player with amazing quality of contact who has leaned into more contact but is losing the quality, as his 8% Barrel% is actually below league average. So while his 14% K% is a career-best, it’s resulted in a ho-hum .263 AVG and 11 HR, and Statcast says there’s nothing unlucky about those numbers.
It hasn’t improved recently either, as his .295 rolling xwOBA is among the 20 biggest decliners over the past 100 PA, and below the likes of Spencer Horwitz, Josh Bell and Jonah Heim. Maybe I should mention Jonah vs the Whale-iam, as Heim has the same number of homers in fewer at-bats. Is it conceivable Heim’s the better bat going forward? I think there’s at least a chance. Contreras has just a 98 wRC+ on the season, meaning he’s been a hair below replacement level offensively. Still far better than Cal Raleigh, but it’s not what you want heading into the homestretch.
Sam Antonacci (2B/OF, Chicago White Sox)
I still love him long-term, but the White Sox’s recent acquisitions combined with a slowing of his own performance has left him in a platoon, which makes him harder to run with in shallower formats in which every at-bat matters. He’s also been running less, hitting just .214 with 1 HR and 1 SB over 56 AB in the past 3 weeks, with 2 times caught stealing.
12-team
Liam Hicks (C/1B, Tampa Bay Rays)
His recent usage has given me the Liam Ick. Many assumed that being traded to a contender would help his value, but his power has been drying up aside from one debut homer, and the Rays have already started to mess with his playing time, toggling in Nick Fortes for his superior defense sometimes. His .249 xBA and .347 xSLG also suggest additional offensive downside, particularly on the power front… he’s hit half of his home runs in the first 5 weeks of the season.
Jake Burger (1B, Texas Rangers)
I’ve definitely flipped on Burger. Last year, I loved him as a player whose expected stats seemed to indicate a player who should’ve been fine and deserved better. But most of this year, he was a guy popping homers but who seemed to have very little skills backing it, and I figured the bottom could drop out. He has 19 homers, but like, the position is SO DEEP. And it’s with a .237 AVG and sub-.300 OBP. I see additional potential downside with a whiff rate worse than his K rate and his rolling xwOBA of .266 over his past 100 PA and even worse .242 over his past 50 PA. If he’s what’s on the menu, I’m going vegan.
Dishonorable Mention: Heriberto Hernandez (OF, Miami Marlins) – I loved him and shouted his name from the rooftops, then a cat meowed, and I got startled and fell off. He’s hit just .122 with 1 HR and 1 SB over the past 2 weeks, and his playing time situation is too fragile to be slipping now.
15-team
Luis Robert, Jr. (New York Mets)
His production has been fine, but his underlying stats are making me say, Jeez, Luis. He’s hitting .300 with a homer this week and over the past 3 weeks has 3 HR, but he has a pretty ugly 13/0 K/BB over 36 AB the past 2 weeks and Statcast basically thinks his bat has been hot trash for a while now, with a .228 rolling xwOBA over his past 50 PA and a .240 mark over his past 100 PA, which is basically unplayable. And it’s not like he’s even been stealing bases, with only 2 SB (3 CS) in 142 AB this year, and that small-sample SB success rate has me doubting he’ll get more. Probably 15-team droppable at this point.
Brayan Rocchio (2B/SS, Cleveland Guardians)
Was Rocchio the kid killed by Captain Hook? Because he deserves the hook after hitting just .174/.240/.217 with 0 HR and 0 SB over 69 AB over the past 3 weeks. There’s nothing nice about that number of at-bats when you realize he’s been stinking up your ratios every day, and you may have been caught unaware due to his cromulent .254 with 9 HR and 15 SB on the season, but this recent sample DOES matter. With Genao’s call-up looking unlikely to be reversed, expect Brayan to ride the pine more.
Dishonorable Mention: Jorge Polanco (2B/3B, New York Mets) – Does everyone who the Mets pick-up just like sleep on a bed of nails and walk on Legos every morning? Maybe he came back too soon, because he’s been arguably the worst regular in baseball since coming off the IL, hitting just .075 with 1 HR and 1 RBI in 40 AB over the past 3 weeks, and that wasn’t even unlucky.
