Welcome back to Buy & Sell, where I’m going to assume that the trade deadline has passed for most of your leagues, assuming there is one. If not, it’s probably going to pass in another week or so. What that means is that for now, I’m no longer going to honor the request by some readers to make this about buy-lows and sell-highs for trading. Instead, I’m focusing on who is hot who I think can keep the good times rolling, and who is going to get rolled by the world and possibly impaled by the sharpest tools in the shed… even if they’re All-Stars. Yeah, that’s a hint. On to the list!
BUY
10-team
Yainer Diaz (C, Houston Astros)
It’s a real shame that Martín Maldonado isn’t around to block this guy from being a regular, isn’t it? It’s possible that in shallow leagues, Diaz was left behind a while ago when he seemed simply unable to repeat the power surge that made him such a valuable find last year in fantasy leagues and made him a consensus top 120 pick in fantasy leagues entering the year. While he made some big strides in improving his swing-and-miss, his barrel rate took a big drop, hitting a concerning .200 with no homers in May. But ever since the calendar flipped to June, he’s been just getting better and better, hitting .363 with four homers in June, .337 with three homers in July, and .338 with five homers in the first three weeks of August. It’s frankly a bit crazy how little love he’s gotten for that until now.
In 10-team single-catcher formats, even in June before his surface stats looked good, he was still a top-10 catcher simply from the run production of being a catcher playing regularly and producing runs on a good team. Now he doesn’t get enough love even though he’s a top-3 catcher, and since the summer has been the best catcher in the game. Look at his stats compared to Salvador Perez, Will Smith, and even Adley Rutschman, and Yainer looks better than them all. In fact, he’s ranked as the second catcher overall in the ESPN Player Rater only behind William Contreras. In leagues that don’t have a deadline, be it AVG or OBP, pay up for him like the stud he is. If he’s still getting ignored in shallow leagues where people have been mentally checked out or are pivoting to football, grab him now.
Jackson Merrill (SS/OF, San Diego Padres)
The 21-year-old has arguably been the biggest prospect success story of the year, and in my opinion not only deserves to be more in the conversation for Rookie of the Year but should be the easy frontrunner. And I still kick myself in the shin ritually once a week for passing him over as my last pick in a 40-round BestBall league for checks notes Gabriel Arias. Ouch, MY LEG! Merrill is up to .289 with 17 HR and 13 SB, and despite no homers this week his xwOBA has been surging. Buy high as someone who could be just as good if not better than Christian Yelich was before he got hurt.
James Wood (OF, Washington Nationals)
Some were quick to jump on the narrative that James Wood is yet another big-hype prospect who didn’t pan out this year because he didn’t light the world on fire in the first few weeks, but he’s been dialing up the knobs and about to hit full broil. He’s now hitting .288/.373/.460 with five HR and six SB in just 185 PA, and his contact quality is red across the board. If he can just cut down on his rather high 30% K% and improve his launch angle sweet spot, he should be a monster in September.
12-team
Triston Casas (1B, Boston Red Sox)
Casas is hitting pretty well for a guy who claims to be getting stabbed in the ribs every time he swings. Since his return, he’s hitting .350 with a homer. He has resumed being the Red Sox’s regular first baseman as he attempts to manage his strange injury acquired earlier in the year from a powerful swing his doctor compared to an internal “car crash”. It’s possible someone just stepped on a Casas voodoo doll, or maybe he spent too much time in Salem.
On the season though, Casas is hitting a cromulent .265 with seven homers in just 98 AB, being one of the few first basemen this year who is actually showing he can deliver on power in a miserable year for the position. That said, there are some concerns, one being the fact that he’s struck out 33 times in those 98 AB. He is also overperforming his Statcast metrics that give him a paltry .214 xBA, indicating his batted ball quality hasn’t been good enough to make up for the swing-and-miss. That said, his sample size is still quite small and his talent and offensive upside in the Red Sox lineup is still quite big, so I think he’s a must-add in all 10-team OBP leagues and 12-team AVG leagues that have been slow to react to the fact he’s off the IL and has avoided internal seven-car-pileups.
Joc Pederson (OF, Arizona Diamondbacks)
Pederson may be somewhat of a headache to roster as someone who sits against lefties, but the damage to righties makes him worth it anyway. He’s hitting a studly .291/.403/.565 with 20 HR and 6 SB in just 292 AB. He’s hitting .357 with five dingers over the past three weeks, and this week he’s been an OBP godsend with a .455 AVG and insane .667 OBP thanks to a 5/1 BB/K in 16 PA. He’s a must-roster in all 12-team formats even if he misses out on some run production.
Brice Turang (SS, Milwaukee Brewers)
After a few months of fantasy mediocrity, fantasy players finally took notice and he was cut across many formats, even in my 15-team league TGFBI. However, he got his groove back this week, hitting .333 with four walks and three SB in 21 AB. He’s now up to 37 SB and that’s simply too valuable to ignore given he’s one of the few speedsters with playing time security.
15-team
Luke Raley (1B/OF, Seattle Mariners)
He’s not someone I’ve loved this year because of his concerning peripherals, and frankly, they’re still pretty dang bad. But what he has done is secured regular playing time, doing well enough to play in Seattle, hitting .282 with four HR and two SB in 39 AB over the past three weeks. He’s also drawing lots of walks, with a 5/7 BB/K ratio in 17 AB (22 PA) this week alone. That makes him a viable OBP source in deeper 12-team formats, and a must-add in all 15-teamers.
Paul DeJong (SS/3B, Kansas City Royals)
It’s the time of year that you need to sometimes just ride the hot bat, and DeJong has it, hitting .350 with two homers this week. It may have seemed crazy at the start of the year, but DeJong is starting to usurp Maikel Garcia’s playing time and could even be the superior fantasy option as we head into September. It’s very hard to find deep league power at the position and Maikel can’t steal bases from the bench.
Adrian Del Castillo (C, Arizona Diamondbacks)
He’s a fine antidote to those snakebitten by the Gabriel Moreno injury, as he’s impressed with five barrels in just 40 AB to go with three homers, a .361 AVG, and one SB in his small sample. While it’s not sustainable I wouldn’t hand-wring too much about the 35% K%, as his peripherals suggest that should improve, and it’s worth taking a chance on in all 15-team leagues if you’re riding out low-upside backstop options like Alejandro Kirk.
Deep Leagues
José Tena, Washington Nationals
The 23-year-old puts the Tena in Tenacious, though I’m not taking him for his D-fense. He’s off to a sizzling start since his call-up, hitting .389 with a 2/3 K/BB in 18 AB this week, and hitting .333 in 27 AB overall. It’s true that he hasn’t hit any homers or stolen any bases yet, but he’s hitting the ball quite hard with a 93 mph average EV and good contact, which is a profile I like to take a chance on.
Leo Jiménez, Toronto Blue Jays
I don’t love him, as his peripherals are pretty weak, and he’s likely only viable as a streamer until Bo Bichette returns in just a few weeks. But he’s hit two tanks this week, including a 410-foot moonshot, and has multi-position eligibility. He also has upside at 23, and most importantly, the shortstop position in AL-only leagues is a disaster right now and he’s better than the alternatives.
Dairon Blanco, Kansas City Royals
He almost never plays, but he has elite SB ability, and he did hit three dingers this week. Not only that, he showed that he can hit more than just cheapies when he gets a hold of one. He’s still listed by most sites as a backup, but I see an opportunity with the OF being manned by MJ Melendez, Adam Frazier, and Kyle Isbel.
Oswald Peraza, New York Yankees
Now that he’s in a platoon with Oswaldo Cabrera, they’re going to get mixed up more than ever. He’s only supposed to be facing lefties, but he’s in luck because the Yankees are facing a ton of lefties this week so he’s going to play more than expected, making him a sneaky stream until Jazz Chisholm Jr. returns.
SELL
10-team
Will Smith (C, Los Angeles Dodgers)
Of all my 10 Bold Predictions I made this preseason, I don’t think any got more flak than my prediction that Will Smith would not finish as a top-10 catcher, especially after he was arguably the game’s best-hitting non-Willson catcher over the first few months. But even though I was perhaps too bold (I originally said he wouldn’t be top-7 but decided it wouldn’t be bold enough), I was onto something and still could end up getting this one right. He’s actually been one of the worst-performing top catchers over the past few weeks, but also over the past few months. See, he hit .362 in April with three homers, and while he hit just .212 in May, no one was complaining because it came with six homers and the season average looked nice. But he hasn’t hit better than .208 in any month since, and he only has seven home runs since the start of June. It’s hard to get jiggy with that.
It’s actually been even worse in the second half, as he’s hitting an abysmal .153 with just one HR in his last 100 PA. While it seems like he might be starting to pull out of his funk a bit, it hasn’t just been bad luck, as his season line of .246/.329/.433 with 16 home runs is only slightly better than Statcast’s .237 xBA. While his barrel rate did recover from last year’s dip, the strikeout rate rose to a concerning 20% K%, which matters for him since he’s always gotten by with more contact quantity than quality. He’s still not at risk of losing playing time, but I think holding him in 10-team formats makes little sense when there are so many options that provide more. Even the likes of Shea Langeliers and Tyler Stephenson could be better down the homestretch. Also, keep in mind he could get benched more as the team may want him to be rested for the playoffs. Cut in all 10-team one-catcher formats, and consider cutting in 12-team AVG leagues if there’s a better option.
Bryson Stott (2B/SS, Philadelphia Phillies)
Right now Stotters are holding each other’s hands but it won’t stop them from drifting away from the championship. Right now he’s still looking decent on the year with 25 stolen bases to go with nine homers, but the .234 AVG is a far cry from the .280 mark he posted last year. It’s worth noting that Statcast never believed in him, and he’s hitting just .148 with two HR and two SB in 54 AB over the past three weeks.
12-team
Marcus Semien (2B, Texas Rangers)
I wrote him up as a drop in 10-team leagues in my July 4 edition of Buy & Sell, but given the name value, I doubt many listened. Yet he hasn’t done much to make me regret my assessment, as he’s hit a mediocre .250 with just five HR and one SB in the second half. Sure, it’s not awful, but he also hasn’t had a single great week since early April.
Josh Smith (2B/SS/3B/OF, Texas Rangers)
I’ve been calling him an overperformer for a while now, especially in batting average, and yet he was still hitting in the .290s until recently. But the other shoe has finally dropped, as he’s hitting just .197/.247/.282 with one HR and one SB in 71 AB over the past three weeks, and an even worse .111 in 18 AB this week. Without a strong batting average, the utilityman really doesn’t offer much fantasy value with limited power and speed, and I’d rather take a good player even with reduced position eligible.
15-team
Maikel Garcia (2B/3B, Kansas City Royals)
It’s not the first time I’ve expressed my concern about him, but the alarm bells are growing louder because for the first time this season, playing time is becoming a concern. It’s not really surprising when you remember that stolen bases aren’t nearly as valuable in real baseball as they are in fantasy, and once you take that out he’s really performed below-replacement level, especially the first few weeks in April when everyone was convinced he was a breakout star. The reality is, even factoring in that barrel-tastic start, he has a 71 wRC+, which is actually well below replacement level.
Now without his prime lineup spot guaranteed, which at least helped him rack up some run production value, and losing playing time to the recently-acquired and more-recently hot Paul DeJong, he’s losing opportunity also for stolen bases. While you may be hard-pressed to find someone who steals that many bases at the position, you may be better off taking your chances getting your stolen bases at another position with a hot player like Pete Crow-Armstrong and focusing on having an everyday quality hitter. I just cut him in my 15-team OBP format and recommend you do the same, since his low walk rate always gave him a low floor. I think that droves of owners cutting him in 15-team average leagues also might be around the corner and perhaps you want to get ahead of it if you see a good alternative and your need for SBs isn’t especially dire. He Maikills your other hitter stats.
Christopher Morel (3B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays)
I really thought the Rays might be able to fix him, but since his strong two-homer debut, he’s arguably been even worse. It kind of makes sense, since the Rays probably figured he would need an offseason to work on his flawed approach. The expected average has also plummeted, so you can’t just blame bad luck anymore, and he’s essentially now an empty power bat along the lines of Seth Brown, who I’d rather have since at least he’s hot right now. “Don’t base your evaluation purely on Statcast expected stats” is the Morel of this story.
Deep Leagues
Oswaldo Cabrera (1B/2B/3B/OF, New York Yankees)
Perhaps this is surprising, and perhaps this depends on your format, as Cabrera has performed well when called upon especially since Jazz went down. No, I don’t mean since the Roaring Twenties. He’s impressively only struck out once in his past 26 AB over the past three weeks, with two HR and an SB to boot, and he’s likely the strong side platoon option (vs. righties) until Chisholm returns. The problem is that the Yankees face six lefties this week, so the weak side wins and Jazz is also due back soon, so he’s not worth holding through that stretch. Drop him unless you like looking through the bench and playing a game of Where’s Oswaldo?
Zach Dezenzo (1B/3B, Houston Astros)
It may have started with intrigue, but he’s become a fantasy zombie-like Day Z-enzo. While the raw power is still 70 grade and he was able to make good contact the first few games, it regressed quickly as his K% ballooned to 34%, and his power was sapped by an unhelpful 48% GB%. Seeing as the team was so quick to replace him without yet dropping him, I’d expect the other shoe to drop with a demotion soon. But in any case, for our purposes, Zach is Donezo.