Welcome back to Buy & Sell, where this week’s theme is… Well, at least we have September Call-ups! I’m a bit bummed to have missed the playoffs in several leagues and lost to an underdog in the playoffs as my focus wavered. But the nice thing of writing this article is I at least get to pretend I’m still competing in leagues other than my 30-team Roto dynasty and Draft Champions leagues where I can’t pick anyone up anymore. Let’s go to the list!
BUY
10-team
Brooks Lee (2B/3B/SS, Minnesota Twins)
It seems counterintuitive, but Brooks is now no longer a shallow stream. This is likely overdue as his homer count is 22, but anyone who used Statcast to guide their add-drop decisions likely squirmed and retreated. I mean, his xwOBA of .272 is 3rd percentile in baseball. That’s like, really bad, especially for someone who doesn’t have speed. Ain’t it getting hard to believe that I’m writing him as an add?
So how is he doing this? I don’t know… Aliens? He’s one of the biggest Statcast overperformers, and there’s no obvious clue of how he’s pulling this off (his pullair%, while good, isn’t enough). It’s at least cause for optimism that his rolling xwOBA has been on a positive trend. So whatever he was getting away with before, now it may be better. He’s hitting .273 with 4 homers over the past 2 weeks, and in non-OBP leagues, it’s hard to believe that he’s outproducing Alex Bregman. Lee’s multi-eligibility combined with a sustainable long hot stretch makes him a 10-team add.
Hector Rodriguez (OF, Cincinnati Reds)
This may be aggressive, but I think his combination of power, aggression, contact, and friendly home park may be finally coming together, and what I hoped for when I drafted him in the last round of my DCs. Hector the warrior has hit .359 with 4 HR over the past 2 weeks, and an even better .349 with 3 homers and 7 RBI in just 26 AB over the past week. I’m starting him in all of my formats, even shallow ones, as he has the runway and the home park to do big damage.
12-team
Mickey Gasper (C, Boston Red Sox)
That was a cute fakeout that ruined my trade deadline deal, and of course he homered in his return. He might be the hot flavor of the week like we had before from Eduardo Valencia and Rafael Flores Jr. But the skills look overall stronger, and he, hand-in-hand with former Uber driver Randy Dobnak, can write the book on how baseball is just impossible to predict sometimes.
But unlike Dobnak, the small sample peripherals think what he’s been doing is legit. His .533 rolling 50 PA xwOBA is not only the most improved in baseball, it’s also the best in baseball. It’s basically breaking baseball, beyond even video game numbers, with the next closest clocking in at .484. So just add him; the cost is still lower than it should be, and the payoff could be huge, especially because he’s also an OBP monster with his 11/3 BB/K ratio over the past 3 weeks.
Honorable Mention: Lazaro Montes, Jr. (OF, Seattle Mariners) – I’ll spare you a repeat of someone else’s prospect report to just say he’s really a power-focused high-volatility play, so best used as a dice roll where you need a power hitting hail mary… and can stomach a .150 AVG. A homer in his debut will make him expensive in FAAB leagues though, so expect Lazarito’s cost to be muy, Lazarico.
Honorable Mention: Javier Sanoja (2B/3B/SS/OF, Seattle Mariners) – He’s remaining an underrated batting average streamer, hitting .409 this week and hitting .318 with 2 HR and 3 SB over the past 3 weeks. That helps almost anywhere, especially with his elite multi-flexibility.
15-team
Yohandy Morales (1B, Washington Nationals)
If you’ve been looking for help at the corners, his arrival sure comes in Yohandy. I will say that he’s already lost some of his midsummer luster as he was on fire and it seemed a callup was imminent after the Mead and Garcia Jr. trades, and we got nothing. But now in September, his playing time picture seems crowded with Brady House blasting towering tanks and Abimelec Ortiz, while he’s cooled off, still having earned a longer leash after such a big splash. But we can’t ignore a player who actually had a better statistical minor league campaign than Ortiz with a .286 AVG and 25 HR and 6 SB in 455 AB, good for a 126 wRC+.
Granted, it was as a 24-year-old, so it’s not quite as impressive, and he doesn’t have Ortiz’s raw power, but he’s still no Quad-A player (at least not yet) as he has real power with a 113 mph MaxEV and a decent 28% CSW% despite a concerning 70% Contact% thanks to an aggressive approach (74% Z-Swing%). So yes, whether he’s helping your team or dropped in a week comes down to a playing time situation I can’t predict. But I’d hope that with the team out of contention, Morales’s older prospect status may help him get more reps with the out-of-contention Nationals to figure out what they have with him. And if he gets it and heats up, he’s already gone in deep leagues, so take advantage of the playing time uncertainty now.
Honorable Mention: Justin Foscue (1B/2B, Texas Rangers) – The fact that I’ve basically ignored him in my articles thus far is looking so far like a Justin miscue. The 27-year-old has quietly been quite productive, hitting .275 with 3 HR in 40 AB over the past 3 weeks, and now has a .258 AVG and 10 HR… in only 182 AB.
Deep Leagues
Leo Bernal (C/1B, St. Louis Cardinals)
He’s not hot yet, but we can still feel the Bern. This young redbird is ready to fly after posting a 115 wRC+ as a 22-year-old in Triple-A, showing an intriguing and relatively rare blend of raw power and aggressive selectivity at the plate. And that’s especially impressive at his young age at such a demanding position. The raw power is already on display in his small sample with a 76 mph bat speed that’s backed by his 113 mph MaxEV in the minors. That kind of power for Leo should be causing more of an uproar.
Sure he’s been striking out a lot in his tiny MLB sample and hasn’t done damage in those few games, but I do think his contact skills should appear soon like they did recently with Hector Rodriguez, as he had a solid 76% Contact% in the minors with an excellent 24% CSW% thanks to his high Z-Swing% keeping him from letting called strikes pass him. And I do also like that he’s not afraid to take a base with 9 SB in the minors this year and 13 last year, so in a lot of ways he actually resembles Ivan Herrera but with none of the hype. I especially like him as a keeper league stash, but I do think he has a chance to have a Rafael Flores-like power spurt IF the playing time comes.
Honorable Mention: Cody Freeman (2B/OF, Texas Rangers) – There’s nothing so interesting in his overall profile, but he’s been hitting for average with enough of a hint of power and speed to be a Temu Kaelen Culpepper or Angel Genao. Some deep leagues have a huge MI shortage and I got sniped on him.
Honorable Mention: Josh Lowe (OF, Los Angeles Angels) – It’s not much, but he’s managed to hit for better contact, and he does have a history of putting together September hot streaks. The upside for a fantasy-relevant player is still there somewhere, I think.
SELL
10-team
Dillon Dingler (C, Detroit Tigers)
Are you going to get your sword and charge at me for this take? Well I just turned your sword and his bat into cans of mediocre light beer. Dilly Dilly! This seems a bit off the wall, as he’s been a top 5 catcher this year. But in leagues with a one-week playoff, you need to be willing to make painful cuts. And the truth is Dingler has no dingers, hitting an awful .118/.178/.132 with 0 HR over the past 3 weeks, and it’s not just bad luck. Sure, if you have a large bench, bench him, but I doubt he suddenly snaps out of it to produce like a top-10 catcher in the coming weeks. Catcher is a very physically demanding job over a full season, and methinks Dillon is Dinged up.
Zack Gelof (2B/3B/OF, Athletics)
It seems that after the injury, the production of Zack Felof a cliff. Even with his second IL return’s double-dinger debut, he’s hit just .176 with 2 HRs and 2 SB in 69 ABs over those three weeks. Now, that’s not so bad, all players have bad streaks and all. But while it’s admittedly cherry picking a bit, since the two homers, he’s hitting just .148 with no homers in 48 ABs. It’s not just bad luck either, as he’s been one of the biggest xwOBA fallers with a dismal .274 xwOBA over his past 50 PA.
Sure, he can get it all back, and he’s still looking like a solid player with a .253 AVG and 14 HR and 10 SB on the year in just 304 AB. That said, his overall package looked a lot more exciting when he was hitting .270-.280, and the reality is that while he’s improved, he benefited greatly from Sacramento’s park, and it will start cooling off in September, and with the team very clearly out of contention, his playing time may not be as plentiful as it had been earlier on, since they probably want to not have him get injured again.
12-team
Kyle Tucker (OF, Los Angeles Dodgers)
Kyle and everyone still rostering him definitely seem… Tuckered out. Well, it really wasn’t a year to draft early-round hitters, was it? But wow, I did a rare thing of preaching patience in early July when he looked like a total bust. See, this is why I need to keep overreacting. I gotta stay in my lane. He’s taken a bad season and somehow made it worse, hitting just .133 with zero HR and 2 SB in 60 AB over the past 3 weeks, bringing his season line down to .227 with 11 HR and 9 SB. So basically, somewhere in the Cedric Mullins/Ryan Vilade/Jonny DeLuca caliber of player. Though he’s had 459 AB, and since he had more at-bats, it’s arguably worse on a per-PA basis.
His rolling xwOBA over the past 100 PA is a downright terrible and not nice .269 xwOBA, and it’s hardly improved with a .279 xwOBA over his past 50. Sure, he could hypothetically pull a Cal Raleigh and hit several homers in a week to get us excited. But in his case, I think it’s even less likely, as he’s probably playing through a hidden injury again, or having some sort of psychological issues to be this much of a trainwreck (and fans watching the games agree). I’d even say he’s benchable if not droppable in 15-team formats in which you’re in the playoffs and can’t afford to wait. Kyle has his head tucked in a green turtle shell, so it’s time for him to bounce and hope someone adding him from the wire gets the ricochet.
Rafael Flores Jr. (C/1B, Pittsburgh Pirates)
Maybe he’s Flores (flowers in Spanish) because he’s already bloomed and now he’s Flores marchitas. That’s wilting. Just like most of my fantasy teams, sadly. Sure, he has a great barrel rate with 6 homers in the past 3 weeks, but he’s hitting just .149 over the past 2 weeks and .059 over the past week, so it seems he’s become a bit too enamored with the longball.
A lot of catchers are hitting hot right now, and we need to be real with ourselves that sometimes you chase the big hot streak but already missed it. And his prospect pedigree, while decent, was not so dynamic that it’s reasonable to expect that high barrel rate to be maintained. So I think that despite the still excellent small-sample power, we can give him an honorable discharge… after giving Rafael his flowers.
15-team
Esmerlyn Valdez (OF, Pittsburgh Pirates)
I hope you didn’t get a hunchback after getting weighed down by Esmereldalyn. I tried to warn you that this was going to happen, didn’t I? I wasn’t exactly Michael Burry, the flaws were fairly obvious, but flaws are easy to overlook when a player is homering basically every game. But now that the well has dried up, he’s revealed as a fairly prototypical all-or-nothing slugger with poor discipline, who can really crush your team when his timing isn’t clicking perfectly. And right now it’s clicking like a seatbelt covered in melted popsicle and sand. Not that I as a toddler dad would know anything about that…
As we’re in September already, you’re better off trying to jump for another power asset than holding one who has been sinking and hasn’t managed to right the ship. He’s hitting .176 with 1 HR this week, and .241 with just 2 HR in 58 AB over the past 3 weeks, with a concerning 27 Ks in those 58 AB (47% K%). I think specifically in 15-team OBP, he’s cuttable if you don’t need power in the worst way, and I definitely also understand if you want to cut him in AVG leagues as well, and it’s fine if there are gems on the wire. But in OBP leagues, the floor is so low that even a multi-homer week might not help. The same applies to points leagues that directly penalize strikeouts, or points leagues that directly penalize strikeouts, since I think his approach is less sustainable than many other recent sluggers.
Joe Mack (C, Miami Marlins)
In single catcher leagues, the pool remains fairly shallow, and Mack’s loud whiffs make you want to wear earplugs. I know it might seem a bit crazy as he was one of the hotter bats since his return, and he’s been pacing for 20-25 HR over a full season with a typical catcher batting average. But even though the surface stats didn’t fully show it, under the hood, he’s slipped to just a .264 xwOBA over his past 100 PA, and a downright unprecedented level of awful with a .196 xwOBA mark over his past 50 PA. Get ready to cut, and give Mack the knife.
Dishonorable Mention: Jesus Sanchez (OF, Toronto Blue Jays) – Maybe you were excited to learn Sanchez was traded, but in his new role he’s no longer even a strong-side platoon bat as much as he’s an occasional bench bat, a big fall from where he looked like a breakout candidate in May. So turn the other cheek, since this year, Jesus won’t have a second coming.
Dishonorable Mention: Evan Carter (OF, Texas Rangers) – The good news is that he’s 23, and hypothetically he could be better next year, although he’s shown much more skill degradation than improvement with a sub-Mendoza batting line and single-digit power to go with his decent speed. But there are many better speed plays who won’t tank your average than him this year, so I wouldn’t Welcome Back Carter.
