Luke Jackson took an 111.2 MPH line drive off his pitching arm last night, and while x-rays were negative, we could still be looking at a potential IL stint here, which could lead to Chris Martin or Robert Garcia taking over the closer role and perhaps never looking back. Despite the 8 saves, Jackson has been very shaky this season with a 5.54 ERA and 1.54 WHIP, as well as 8.6% K-BB, 9.3% SwStr, 27.8% CSW, and 63% Z-O% rates. He also holds the worst Stuff+ amongst all closers at 87.
If the Rangers don’t want to limit Martin to 9th inning duty, they should at least consider a committee approach with Garcia, as the two have been the best relievers in this bullpen all year. The team would still have Hoby Milner and Jacob Webb as 6th/7th inning options, and they can ease Jackson back into things as his subpar fastball really leaves him as a setup option at best. In deeper leagues, I’d consider all three roster worthy for now as we wait and see how things take shape, but if Jackson does land on the IL, Martin becomes almost a must roster, with Garcia not too far behind.
Notes
- Obviously, Robert Suarez couldn’t locate his fastball yesterday, and that led to the disastrous outing, but let’s look a little bit closer at the changeup that has helped propel him to a hot start. Last night, it failed to produce any called or swinging strikes, and I do have concerns with his command of the pitch. He abandoned it last year cause he couldn’t locate it (20.3% Zone rate), and while it’s better this season (35% Zone), that’s just an average zone rate for a changeup that isn’t exactly “nasty” (46% Z-O%, 16.1% PutAway rates). I’m not expecting Suarez to completely fall off after just one outing, but I also think we need to come to terms with Suarez not having enough swing and miss to be a true top 8-10 closer.
- Ryan Walker had another rough outing on Sunday as he picked up another blown save and loss, and now, halfway through May, you have to wonder if a closer change is imminent. Walker’s slider just isn’t as effective this season (Zone rate is down 11%), and his fastball is just not a good enough offering without his slider being able to miss bats. Last year, Walker held a 23.8% “Q-BP%” (Quality Pitch minus Bad Pitch based off PLV) with the slider, but this season that number sits at -6.5%. Camilo Doval has been looking better and better as the season goes (28.6% K, 16.3% SwStr, 30% CSW, 40.4% Z-O rates over his past 6.2 IP), and I would not be surprised to see him take over the closer role as early as this week.
- It looks as if Ryan Pressly’s time as the Cubs’ closer has finally come to an end, so we can expect to see Porter Hodge see the majority of save chances moving forward. The problem is that Hodge hasn’t exactly dominated this season either (8% K-BB), and while I like that Hodge is throwing his sweeper more, it hasn’t been as effective this season (Whiff rate is down 26.8%) as he may be getting too much of the plate with it (53% Zone rate)? Drew Pomeranz filled in on Monday and picked up a save, so perhaps we see him mix in with Hodge against left-handed heavy lineup pockets.
- Nothing has been announced yet, but I’d imagine we are close to seeing Devin Williams return to the closer role. Since being removed, Williams has still had some command issues, but holds 19% K-BB, 18.8% SwStr, and 36.3% CSW rates as well as a 3.53 SIERA, while Luke Weaver really looks worn down, holding just a 18.8% K rate over that span, as well as a 4.91 SIERA and 10.7% SwStr and 23.2% CSW rates. Ideally, we’d get a few more outings from Williams where he looks like his old self, but they also need to give Weaver some breaks after his intense workload last year.
| Rank | Pitcher | Team | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason MillerT1 | SD | - |
| 2 | Josh Hader | HOU | - |
| 3 | Andrés Muñoz | SEA | - |
| 4 | Jeff Hoffman | TOR | - |
| 5 | Edwin Díaz | LAD | - |
| 6 | Félix BautistaT2 | BAL | - |
| 7 | Jhoan Duran | PHI | +3 |
| 8 | Tanner Scott | LAD | +1 |
| 9 | Emmanuel Clase | CLE | +2 |
| 10 | Aroldis Chapman | BOS | -2 |
| 11 | José AlvaradoT3 | PHI | +1 |
| 12 | Robert Suarez | ATL | -5 |
| 13 | Trevor Megill | MIL | +2 |
| 14 | Kenley JansenT4 | DET | -1 |
| 15 | Ryan Helsley | BAL | +1 |
| 16 | Raisel Iglesias | ATL | +1 |
| 17 | Pete Fairbanks | MIA | +1 |
| 18 | Emilio Pagán | CIN | +1 |
| 19 | David Bednar | NYY | +1 |
| 20 | Devin Williams | NYM | +3 |
| 21 | Ryan Walker | SF | -7 |
| 22 | Carlos EstévezT5 | KC | +3 |
| 23 | Kyle Finnegan | DET | -2 |
| 24 | Will VestT6 | DET | +4 |
| 25 | Porter Hodge | CHC | +6 |
| 26 | Camilo Doval | NYY | +9 |
| 27 | Luke Weaver | NYM | -5 |
| 28 | Shelby Miller | CHC | -4 |
| 29 | Dennis Santana | PIT | +1 |
| 30 | Chris MartinT7 | TEX | +UR |
| 31 | Robert Garcia | TEX | +6 |
| 32 | Luke Jackson | KC | -6 |
| 33 | Lucas ErcegT8 | KC | -1 |
| 34 | Jason Adam | SD | +UR |
| 35 | Cade Smith | CLE | -2 |
| 36 | Jordan Romano | COL | +UR |
| 37 | Kirby Yates | LAA | -1 |
| 38 | Griffin Jax | TB | +1 |
| 39 | Cam Booser | TB | +UR |
| 40 | Tommy Kahnle | BOS | -11 |
