Slate Details
DraftKings – Early slate (10 games) – starts 1:05 PM EDT; Afternoon slate (7 games) – starts 4:05 PM EDT; Main slate (5 games) – starts 7:15 PM EDT.
FanDuel – Early Only slate (3 games) – starts 1:05 PM EDT; Main slate (7 games) – starts 4:05 PM EDT; Evening slate (5 games) – starts 7:15 PM EDT.
Weather Impact
Swirling wind and potential passing showers for NYM@COL (7:15 PM).
Pitching (1PM/4PM)
FanDuel has a mini Early Only slate with just the first three games of the day, while DraftKings has a large 10-game slate with every game before 7:15 PM, and an Afternoon slate with the 4PM games to match FanDuel’s Main slate.
Basically, if you’re playing a slate with HOU@OAK on it, play Framber Valdez. If you need an SP2 or you’re playing the Early Only FanDuel slate, read on…
Luis Severino had an impressive return vs CIN last start, but he still has yet to see five or more innings since last season, making him a risky start vs SD.
Michael Wacha is an interesting option with four recent starts of one ER or less, but even with the Yankees not showing much in the last two games, they’re still at home and Wacha probably turns in a performance similar to Musgrove yesterday (6 H, 1 ER, 6 K). He’s a decent rostership pivot but probably doesn’t offer a high ceiling.
Michael Lorenzen was a popular value play in his last start vs KC, and promptly gave up three ERs with two HRs in the first inning and finished with five ERs and five Ks. This feels like a similar spot, as the White Sox are a popular target to pick on…but they hung a dirty dozen runs on DET yesterday. The park+weather are safer than Kauffman Stadium was last time, so this is a fine SP2 option if you need some savings, but if Lorenzen is looking really popular, I will likely look elsewhere.
Chris Bassitt is probably the SP2 pivot that makes the most sense. The Twins are not terribly explosive, and Gausman picked them apart yesterday. The Blue Jays are still very much underperforming on the offensive side of things – more on that later – but outside his last start vs TB, Bassitt has had a solid month of May.
There are a number of other big names in this afternoon’s set of games, but unfortunately, many are against tough opponents – Clayton Kershaw vs TB, Zack Wheeler vs ATL, Charlie Morton vs PHI, & Pablo López vs TOR. If you believe talent wins out, I think López is the most likely to succeed out of this group, but TOR remains patient with their ABs even if they aren’t generating a ton of runs, so I fear he may not have as much upside as the next couple GPP options.
Logan Webb would be a slam-dunk SP2 recommendation if he wasn’t dealing with some back issues which delayed this start a bit. Maybe the extra rest gets him through this one – and it’s a solid spot vs MIL – but it’s not without some risk. If that risk translates to less rostership though, he’s the type of GPP SP2 that could make all the difference.
Luis Castillo was who we thought we could be vs the A’s in his last start, and hopefully, he builds on that. However, PIT appears to be on the rebound, and the wind does look to be blowing out for this game, so his FB tendencies vs Ls could get him in some trouble.
Summary:
Slam dunk SP1 all formats: Framber Valdez
Cost-conscious SP2 (more cash than GPP option): Michael Lorenzen
Rostership pivot SP2: Chris Bassitt, Michael Wacha
GPP targets: Logan Webb, Pablo López
Batting (1PM/4PM)
If you’re playing the Early Only FanDuel slate, your options are limited, but the general blueprint should be:
- Play Juan Soto, Brandon Dixon, Fernando Tatis Jr., & Rougned Odor and hope Severino labors in this start;
- Target CWS Ls vs Lorenzen – Gavin Sheets, Yoán Moncada, and/or Andrew Benintendi.
- Target DET Ls vs Scholtens – Riley Greene & Akil Baddoo.
Anything with the HOU@OAK game, you want to start with Astros vs Hogan Harris. Who is Hogan Harris? He’s a lefty with an average 3.77 ERA in AAA along with a 1.39 WHIP, and 31 Ks over 31 IP. He hasn’t gone much beyond five IP/game this season, so the Astros should see plenty of the porous bullpen. Jose Altuve will likely be chalky since Harris is a lefty, but I think building a stack from the middle of the lineup offers the most upside regardless of how Harris performs; look to build around Astros like Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Chas McCormick, & Jake Meyers in spots 4-8.
Yesterday’s game between PIT & SEA ended up a high-scoring affair, and this one could as well. Assuming you’ve targeted some cheaper options above like Odor, the Tigers, or the lower-order bats in the Astros lineup, you should have salary available to pay up for Julio Rodríguez. J.P. Crawford, & Ty France – who has three HRs in his last two games – are also solid plays vs Roansy Contreras.
Stacking vs Luis Castillo may not be a popular idea, but PIT as a team had seven HRs vs SEA yesterday, and with the wind blowing out during a day game, it’s possible PIT builds on this momentum. Castillo has barrel rate vulnerability on both sides of the plate, so plays like Jack Suwinski & Carlos Santana are potentially low-rostered upside plays.
Another game that might be overlooked as a game stack is WAS-KC, which had almost 30 hits between them yesterday. Luis García had a wild six-hit game, and Lane Thomas & Corey Dickerson each had HRs for WAS. All three of these Nats are also solid plays vs Brady Singer, as well as Ildemaro Vargas if he sees the lineup. Nicky Lopez has been an underrated bat for KC since coming up to replace Dozier, and Vinnie Pasquantino should do well vs Josiah Gray who has been vulnerable to hard hits from the left side. Drew Waters is a recent activation that is one to jump on as well.
Last time we saw Corbin Burnes he had all sorts of problems with righty Astro bats. He has some extreme splits going on right now, with a lot of forced GB contact to lefties, but hard hits and barrels to righties. SF put up 15 runs on these Brewers yesterday, and Corbin could get Burned again by the likes of Mitch Haniger & J.D. Davis.
Last but not least, there are also a number of plays worth considering for TEX@BAL, even if the park isn’t the prime spot for HRs. Corey Seager is swinging an extremely hot bat, as well as Leody Taveras & Josh Jung. On the other side, it’s lefty Heaney for TEX, so Ryan Mountcastle is always worth a play.
Pitching (7PM)
It’s hard to really make a case other than Shohei Ohtani for SP1 and Jack Flaherty for SP2. Justin Verlander in Coors (with rain?) doesn’t really scream safe, and although Edward Cabrera was decent in Coors last time out, I don’t think he’s necessarily safer or more likely to get the win than Flaherty vs CLE. Tanner Bibee feels like an average Joe in terms of both PLV and CSW rates, and the Cards seem to have regressed again…but if you can get Flaherty for cheaper, he seems like the better play.
Shohei Ohtani $11400 (DK) $10300 (FD)
Jack Flaherty $7200 (DK)
Tanner Bibee $8500 (DK)
Batting (7PM)
Chase Anderson finally showed some vulnerabilities to power Rs last time in Coors, and Pete Alonso is in town. There are plenty of reasons to like Francisco Álvarez here too, as he’s on a really nice hit streak and seems to have cemented the Mets catcher job.
For the Rockies, the main bat to target is Charlie Blackmon on a week-long hit streak. If you want to double up, Ryan McMahon had a HR yesterday and looks to be rebounding from his cold streak. Mike Moustakas might be a better option with a safer floor if he starts, though.
Chase Field is the next hitter-friendly spot on the late slate, and Zach Davies is looking to start for the first time since early April. It’s hard to say how long he goes coming off the IL, but he had one good/one bad outing vs the Dodgers before going on IL. It’s a small sample size, but he gave up plenty of hard LD contact when he was starting, and that’s all the Red Sox need to justify their lefty-heavy lineup. It’s been a long, tough road trip for BOS, but they showed some signs of life last night. Raimel Tapia has been a surprise productive lead-off option, and Triston Casas continues to be a reliable punt play. Alex Verdugo has been hitting hard enough to fit the profile vs Davies as well.
Garrett Whitlock is also looking to return after a month on the IL, but there are only two bats for the D-backs worth counting on right now – Lourdes Gurriel Jr. & Corbin Carroll.
CIN@CHC is a tough game to predict, as it’s two average pitchers that are prone to giving up barrel hits, but it’s Wrigley Field with the wind blowing in, which limits that factor considerably. The Reds are actually playing decent on the road, and Spencer Steer is hitting very well right now. TJ Friedl is back in the lineup and likely leading off, which is decent value for his average price.
As for the Cubs, they tend to be overpriced and Christopher Morel is 50/50 to strike out or hit a HR. With the wind as it is for this game, he feels very overpriced but if you have the money to burn, so be it. However, it feels like Seiya Suzuki or Yan Gomes might be better plays at their price points, given the conditions. This doesn’t feel like a game to be over the field with player exposure either way.