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Fantasy Baseball Out% Standouts From Week 10

Taylor Tarter presents the fantasy baseball week 10 Out% update

Taylor Tarter
Fantasy 6/7/2026

Below, you will find our latest Out Rate update. The data has been accumulated over the course of the season and is updated as of Friday, 6/5.

Here are a few basics relating to Out Rate:

  • Out% = how often a pitcher’s pitch results in an out
  • Good Out% = how many of the outs were on batted balls that had an expected batting average below .250, plus strikeouts
  • Lucky Out% = how many of the outs were on batted balls that had an xBA of .250 or higher

You can use Out% to help you make tough decisions about your pitching staff, including whom to drop or add, and whom to trade for or away. Out% is also a reasonably effective predictive tool, considering its modest “stickyness.” So, pitchers with multiple high Out Rate pitches will tend to do better in terms of ERA, especially pitchers with high fastball Out Rates.

For a little more info on the basics of Out rate, read this.

For some more specifics on good and lucky outs, read this.

And to view our Out Rate Leaderboard Google Doc, click this.

 

League Average Out Rates

 

Below are the league average out rates for each pitch type as of Friday, 6/5. This is how we measure a pitcher’s Out Rate performance.

  • Fastball – 16.6%
  • Cutter – 15.4%
  • Sinker – 17.3%
  • Splitter – 20.2%
  • Slider – 18.1%
  • Sweeper – 18.1%
  • Curveball – 16.9%
  • Changeup – 19.2%

A few notable starting pitchers sit atop the leaderboards for each pitch (min. 40 pitches thrown), including

 

Fastball Out% Highlight

 

Some of the best fastball Out Rates belong to relievers, and there are few truly elite fastballs when it comes to Out Rate. Many starting pitchers with above-average Out Rates on their fastballs also feature high Lucky Out Rates on them as well. One starter with a fastball that performs legitimately well is Zack Wheeler.

His fastball features a 17.8% Out Rate, a little more than 1% better than league average. It also has just a 2% lucky out rate, meaning most of the outs on his fastball have been Good (earned) Outs. Digging into Wheeler’s PLV, we can see exactly why his fastball has excelled at inducing outs:

His fastball grades out at a near Quality Pitch according to PLV, thanks to a number of factors. Despite missing significant time recovering from injury, Wheeler’s fastball velocity has bounced back and is above league average. This pitch also benefits from elite extension, making it feel even faster to opposing batters. Wheeler’s fastball also features some crazy vert, and a ton of horizontal break for a fastball. He also locates it extremely well. All of these factors have resulted in an elite fastball according to conventional metrics, PLV, and Out Rate. Just take a look here:

Wheeler also features a sinker and splitter that grade above average in Out Rate. And his sinker PLV is even better than his fastball PLV.

Wheeler very much looks like he is back, and if there is any way for you to trade for him, you should try to do so in your leagues.

 

An Out Rate Pitcher to Target

 

Nick Martinez looks like the real deal this season, especially in terms of Out Rate. This is despite giving up six runs in his last outing. Prior to that, he had not allowed more than two earned in a start this season.

Martinez features four pitches that qualify for Out Rate – his fastball, cutter, sinker, and changeup. Despite low strikeout totals, Martinez has found a way to induce outs at an elite rate, and has been off to a career year.

And it looks legit.

Martinez’s only pitch that is a little suspect is his fastball, which features an 18% Out Rate, but a 7% Lucky Out rate. A 5.03 (league average) PLV suggests his fastball may be slightly overperforming, though with several secondary pitches to induce outs, Martinez could work around some regression to his fastball Out Rate.

Take a look at his overall PLV data:

Of all his pitches, his changeup appears to be the one most outperforming its pitch quality, not just in terms of Out%, but other metrics as well. Martinez’s changeup has generated a .108 BAA and a 34% whiff rate, as well as a 25% strikeout rate. It grades as his best Out Pitch, at 24%, with a 20% Good Out Rate. With movement like this, it could continue outperforming its PLV:

But Martinez is not reliant on strikeouts, considering a 5.3 K/9 rate and a 14% strikeout rate. His sinker, slider, and curveball all feature groundball rates over 40%. He also seems to be able to get the outs at the right time, with an 87% left-on-base rate.

Someone may be looking to sell Martinez after his clunker, and this would be a prime opportunity to scoop him up.

 

An Out Rate Pitcher to Avoid

 

Shota Imanaga looked great to start the season, but has not pitched well lately, allowing 26 earned runs in his last 21.2 IP. His Out Rate and PLV both corroborate his poor performance of late and should guide fantasy managers to jump ship now.

Four of Imanaga’s pitches qualify for Out Rate – his sinker, fastball, splitter, and sweeper. Of them, his sinker and splitter grade as above average; however, his sinker features a nearly 9% Lucky Out rate out of a total 24% Out Rate. This means over a third of the outs on his sinker have been considered lucky, or unearned. His only actually elite out pitch is his splitter, and that is not enough to believe he will dramatically improve his performance.

PLV supports this notion:

Interestingly, Imanaga’s splitter – his best pitch by Out Rate – grades as his second-worst pitch by PLV. This could mean that it is overperforming in terms of Out Rate, a worrying possibility. His fastball, sweeper, and curveball would be considered league-average pitches by PLV, but are not far enough above average to be considered Quality or near Quality Pitches.

Someone in your fantasy league may believe Imanaga could bounce back, especially if he has a solid start in the next week or so. If there is any way for you to unload him in your league, you should look to do just that.

 

Other Out Rate Pitchers to Buy/Add

 

 

Other Out Rate Pitchers to Sell/Drop

 

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Taylor Tarter

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Taylor is an FSWA finalist, and a fantasy baseball champ that has been playing for well over a decade. Taylor is co-creator of Out%, a stat that measures how good pitches are at getting outs. You can find him @TaylorTarter on Twitter.

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