Dynasty
Nastiest GIFs
The List
Dynasty
Nastiest GIFs
The List
+

Fantasy Baseball Out% Standouts From Week 12

Taylor Tarter presents the fantasy baseball week 12 Out% update

Taylor Tarter
Out% to Evaluate Pitchers 13 Hours Ago

Below, you will find our latest Out rate update. The data has been accumulated over the course of the season and is updated as of Friday, 6/19.

Here are a few basics relating to Out rate:

  • Out% = how often a pitcher’s pitch results in an out
  • Good Out% = how many of the outs were on batted balls that had an expected batting average below .250, plus strikeouts
  • Lucky Out% = how many of the outs were on batted balls that had an xBA of .250 or higher

You can use Out rate to help you make tough decisions about your pitching staff, including whom to drop or add, and whom to trade for or away. Out rate is also a reasonably effective predictive tool, considering its modest “stickiness.” So, pitchers with multiple high Out rate pitches will tend to do better in terms of ERA, especially pitchers with high fastball Out rates.

For a little more info on the basics of Out rate, read this.

For some more specifics on good and lucky outs, read this.

And to view our Out Rate Leaderboard Google Doc, click this.

League Average Out Rates

Below are the league average out rates for each pitch type as of Friday, 6/19. This is how we measure a pitcher’s Out Rate performance.

  • Fastball – 16.6%
  • Cutter – 15.6%
  • Sinker – 17.3%
  • Splitter – 20.2%
  • Slider – 18%
  • Sweeper – 18%
  • Curveball – 16.7%
  • Changeup – 19%

A few notable starting pitchers sit atop the leaderboards for each pitch (min. 40 pitches thrown), including

Fastball Out% Highlight

One way to measure a pitcher’s ability to induce outs is to gauge their fastball Out Rate. This is important to analyze because pitchers who use their fastballs for outs have an advantage over pitchers who do not. Some pitchers use their fastballs mostly as setup pitches for breaking and offspeed stuff, but certain pitchers have such devastating fastballs that they can throw them for outs too. Pitchers with high fastball Out%, plus at least two secondary pitches with above-average Out Rates, tend to have quality ERAs. All of this is true of Gerrit Cole, whose fastball Out Rate sits at an impressive 19.8%. Here is how his fastball pitch quality looks according to PLV:

This shows how his fastball has earned the high Out%. He tosses it with well above average velocity and a ton of vert. Cole’s fastball also gets above-average horizontal break. Cole locates it well overall, but just below average for pitching. That does not seem to matter because the velo and movement are top-notch. That gives him an above-average PLV grade, supporting how good this fastball has been. Here he is blowing it by a batter last week:

One other important factor in how good Cole’s fastball has been is its 16.9% Good Out Rate. This means nearly all of the outs on his fastball have been earned. He is throwing it effectively in two-out counts, as his putaway rate sits at 26%. It also has a 27% K rate (the best among his pitches), showing that he throws it at the right times and can get it past batters consistently.

Cole has not thrown his other pitches enough to qualify for Out%, but we should get a better picture of the rest of his arsenal in the next two starts. Regardless, he should be added in every league and should be a primary trade target for fantasy baseball managers in need of quality pitching.

 

An Out Rate Pitcher to Target

 

Stephen Kolek has been off to a great season, managing a 2.68 ERA and a 4-1 record in eight starts across 50.1 IP. Digging into the data shows that this is no fluke and that fantasy managers should invest. He does not strike batters out much, but has an impressive 47% GB rate, and features four of five pitches with above average out rates.

Kolek’s 26% slider Out Rate is the 10th best overall Out Rate in baseball for (healthy) starting pitchers. His sinker, cutter, and changeup also land above average. His pitch quality backs up his performance on these pitches:

Kolek’s best pitch, according to PLV, is his sinker, which grades close to a Quality Pitch. It features his second-best Out Rate at 22.6%. His changeup is borderline in Out%, and that shows in the pitch quality, which is slightly below average. Accordingly, his cutter’s 18% Out Rate is well above average, as is his PLV.

Kolek may not be a huge strikeout pitcher, but his slider has been pretty effective at inducing Ks and whiffs. It has a 48% whiff rate and a 38% K rate. He also has a 22% putaway rate, meaning he has leaned on it in two-strike counts. He also features his cutter frequently in two-strike counts, generating a 55% putaway rate.

Take a look at how his arsenal looked in his latest report card:

While the Ks may not come for Kolek, he has been elite at inducing grounders, which have helped him induce outs. His cutter has a 69% GB rate, while his changeup, sinker, and sweeper have GB rates of 56%, 55%, and 53%, respectively.

His Good Out Rates show that he is mostly earning his outs, with the worst ratio of Good vs Lucky Outs on his changeup.

Even if Kolek loses some outs on his changeup, he has enough quality secondaries to get outs in other ways. He is legit and should be a target for fantasy managers.

 

An Out Rate Pitcher to Avoid

 

Eduardo Rodriguez looks great on the surface, with a 2.45 ERA in 15 starts across 88 IP. There are a few areas of concern, though, that suggest regression may be on the way for the veteran.

First, his K rate is down to 17.9%, the lowest of his career, and his K/9 sits at a career worst 6.6. He also has a 3.5 BB/9 rate, which is up for the fourth year in a row. Rodriguez’s strand rate is at 86%. Prior to this season, it had never been above 77%, and it is well above his career average of 74%. This is problematic because it appears he has been getting lucky when it comes to getting baserunners out. If his luck changes, he could see more runners score, considering how many walks he gives up and how few batters he strikes out.

E-Rod also seems to have pitched into some luck in other ways as well. His .256 BABIP is low, considering a high line drive rate. He pitched into some good home run luck too, with a .92 HR/9 rate and a 9.5% HR/FB rate (the second lowest and lowest of his career, respectively).

When it comes to Out Rate, we can see similar issues. His changeup and curveball have above-average Out Rates, but just 16% of his 22% Out Rate on his changeup equates to Good Outs. This means a little under a quarter of the outs on his changeup have been lucky outs. His fastball, sinker, and cutter all have below-average out rates as well.

Rodriguez has been getting away with quite a bit this season, as his expected batting averages against on all five of his pitches are higher than his batting averages against. He also does not miss a ton of bats, considering three of his pitches have whiff rates between 20% and 28%, with his cutter and sinker owning 11% and 2% whiff rates, respectively.

Even in his last outing, you can see that the pitch quality is not there, but somehow he seems to be escaping without much damage:

This sort of performance likely will not last, considering the low pitch quality and the lack of earned outs. His 4.42 xFIP and 4.79 SIERA project him to land two to two-and-a-half runs worse than his current ERA, which means there could be some ugly games on the way.

Rodriguez is a prime sell-high pitcher, and fantasy managers should start shopping him sooner rather than later.

 

Other Out Rate Pitchers to Buy/Add

 

 

Other Out Rate Pitchers to Sell/Drop

 

Subscribe to the Pitcher List Newsletter

Your daily update on everything Pitcher List

Taylor Tarter

Follow the author on Twitter

Taylor is an FSWA finalist, and a fantasy baseball champ that has been playing for well over a decade. Taylor is co-creator of Out%, a stat that measures how good pitches are at getting outs. You can find him @TaylorTarter on Twitter.

Account / Login