From the Horse’s Mouth: PL Mock Drafters Give Their Best and Worst Picks

Myles Nelson on Carlos Martinez: “The talent is there and the question about his role seems to be whether he’ll be the closer or a starter. Either way, I’ll be very happy with the value in the 19th.” On Eduardo Escobar: “I should have drafted a pitcher there and snagged a comparable hitter to Escobar at the 11/12 turn.”

Rich Holman on Yu Darvish: “Love this value as he’s been going among the top 60 in ADP. I believe in the reduced BB%, but it will likely come with the increased HR/FB%.” On Paul Goldschmidt: “This pick ranks among the top five things I regret in life – hyperbole, yes, but not by much. This just shows what’s can happen with a lack of research. Don’t make my mistakes.”

Rick Graham on Max Kepler: “I’m not going to argue with 30/90/90 at pick 168.” On David Dahl: “I reached there for my second outfielder when 4 rounds later I was able to draft Kepler.”

Vlad Sedler of Fantasy Guru on Cavan Biggio: “Not sure how he fell this far down the crack, but I’ll take the risk of a subpar batting average for the glory of counting categories.” On Pablo Lopez: “A bit too volatile for my roto taste buds and the adjusted ballpark dimensions won’t help but there is some upside with Pablito.”

Brent Hershey of Baseball HQ on Liam Hendriks: “Surprised that 5 CL went before him more than anything; his peripherals (velo, SwK bump) validated his 2H dominance. Legit.” On Domingo German: “Draft took place before the suspension, but this was a needless risk in a 12-team league.”

Trevor Hooth on Manny Machado: “This one is tough, I think I got good value on several guys, but none more than Manny Machado in the fifth. His stock was very down in this draft for a guy with a really good track record.” On Rhys Hoskins: “I’m not sure if it’s so much an ADP thing, I think I just balked here. Hoskins is solid, and I remember wanting to add some power, but I think I could’ve waited and grabbed Matt Chapman. So much regret.”

Ryan Bucher on Lourdes Gurriel, Jr.: “Gurriel’s adjustments he made after coming back from Triple-A in May were for real, and he is slated to open the season in the top 4 of an improving top of the Blue Jay’s lineup.” On Scott Kingery: “Feels like a worse bet despite being the guy I took two rounds sooner. I like the versatility a lot, but I let previous year’s prospect love for him lead me to pull the trigger early on what likely would be a backup for my offense if this mock were played out.”

Dave Cherman on Ken Giles: “He went after most all of the elite closers despite putting up as good as or better numbers than most of them. He’s still an elite RP in this league and when he gets dealt in 2020, his value is gonna soar.” On Yuli Gurriel: “I don’t really believe that you can have ‘bad’ picks in a mock because a mock is designed to take chances and make mistakes. I guess my least favorite pick is Yuli Gurriel in the 11th because I wanted one of the higher-end 1B but they all got sniped.”

Scott Pianowski of Yahoo! Sports on Rick Porcello: “Some of [drafting Hyun-Jin Ryu] was mitigated by Porcello landing in the National League.” On Hyun-Jin Ryu: “Looks pricy and optimistic, a poor fit for Toronto.  No Altuve comments at this time (taken 22nd overall).”

Alex Chamberlain of RotoGraphs on Edwin Encarnacion: “That…that’s a joke, right? I mean, I get that he wasn’t signed to a team at the time, but what the heck is going on there? Then again, I’ll like Edwin at any price, so maybe I’m biased.” On Luke Jackson: “Doesn’t sound awful, but it was a wholly unresearched pick that arrived nearly three rounds after Mark Melancon left the board. Moreover, I psyched myself and got fancy instead of grabbing who I really wanted (Jose Urquidy, who was snatched up three picks later). Opportunity cost!”

Shelly Verougstraete on Stephen Strasburg: “In League 1, we started before the playoffs began and I was able to get Stephen Strasburg in the fifth round (52nd overall). Looking at the other leagues, the next lowest pick was #40. The Playoff Tax is real, folks.” On Scott Kingery: “I definitely could have waited much longer before picking him. I should have gone after a closer, like Liam Hendriks or Ken Giles.”

Tim Jackson on Marcus Semien: “The depth and sheen of the position is making it easy to forget about Semien, who by PL ADP is the 14th eligible shortstop. I’m betting his improved plate discipline keeps letting him make the most of his contact and sees him finish better than a good deal of the 13 ahead of him.” On Willson Contreras: “I caught the tail-end of a catcher run here and didn’t appreciate the depth the position offers after the first four guys or so. Contreras is a fine player but production at catcher is available a lot later. I’d rather have taken a shot on another player at this spot.”

Alex Fast on Mike Moustakas: “At the time, Mike Moustakas was still a free agent but I figured he was far too talented to pass up in the 13th. Since then, he, of course, signed with the Reds and has become the 100th player off the board by NFBC standards. I would’ve been happy wherever he landed but the fact that he ended up in that beautiful hitter’s park only makes this pick look all the better.” On David Robertson: “This was a complete mental lapse as he had TJS in August! I like to take saves late and there was another person I should’ve gone with—you know, one that was healthy?—in Matt Magill. They won’t be pretty but he’ll get 10-15 saves.”

Max Freeze on Austin Meadows: “He’s still just 25 years old and broke out in a big way increasing his hard-hit and barrel percentages in 2019. He’ll hit in the top third of the Rays lineup and I could see a 35-homer, 15-steal type of season with very solid counting stats.” On Eduardo Rodriguez: “He’s coming off a career-year and his value was boosted by an elevated win total which can’t be trusted. He reached 200 innings for the first time but he does have a poor injury history. His changeup is great but it’s really the only pitch that generates whiffs, so his strikeout upside is limited. I feel like I could have passed on him for Max Fried or gone with a position player with upside like Gavin Lux instead.”

Alex Drennan on Adam Eaton: “I would’ve preferred quantitative easing to prevent further price deflation on Eaton, but given Clicky Draft’s limitations the best I could do was create artificial demand. If you could guarantee Eaton at his min pick of 201, I may have considered taking a pitcher in one of the first nine rounds.” On Bryce Harper: “Harper is the fantasy equivalent of a Tiffany diamond: the cut is excellent, but you can get “identical” quality for a fraction of the cost in Michael Conforto.“

Travis Sherer on Luis Arraez: “Getting a known quantity is difficult in round 17. We know what Arraez is good at: hitting. Maybe not for power, but this is a guy who qualifies for 2B/SS/3B/OF who will pull your average up, and by getting on base so much, he’ll be in the mix for runs and RBIs.” On Corey Seager: “I’m fine with where I picked Seager. What I don’t like about this pick is that I found myself having to rely on Seager. If I knew that I’d wind up with Seager, I probably would have made a play earlier for Adalberto Mondesi or Bo Bichette.”

Nick Pollack (again) on Zach Wheeler: “I was shocked to see him last until the 12th round, even if his 2020 team wasn’t determined yet. His excellent fastball paired with a slider that could develop into a strong out pitch suggests a ceiling of a strong #2/#3, and I was thrilled to have him as my fifth starter.” On Carlos Carrasco and Lance Lynn: “While I think this ADP may be what we see in March, it still hinges on two key elements: Health and confirmation of an SP role. At this price in October, I didn’t bake in the possibilities of one these facets not coming to fruition, and seeing Glasnow picked quickly after, I had my regrets.” (Note: after the draft, Wheeler signed with the Phillies.)

Jamie Sayer on Khris Davis: “I’m going to guess last year was so poor thanks to a lingering hip injury. I would also hazard a guess his hip was the reason he was so awful against fastballs, as his xSLG dropped from .730 (!) in 2018 to .455 in 2019. I think with his hip fully healthy going into 2020 he should be able to catch up to the fastballs easier.” On Rhys Hoskins: “I think I reached on [him] as 1st base worries me but with Carlos Santana going two rounds later, it wasn’t a good pick looking back. Our own Dan Richards wrote a fantastic piece about repeating pulled fly balls year-to-year and came to the conclusion it’s hard to trust fantasy players that tend to rely on them for their home runs. Enter Rhys Hoskins, one of the kings of pulled fly balls the last couple of years. With his barrel rate dropping two years in a row it’s hard to depend on his power reaching its full potential.”

Colin Ward on Charlie Blackmon: “His speed may be diminished but the guy still stuffs the stat sheet come years end. Blackmon could, and has, easily put up comparable numbers to JD Martinez who went a full 3+ rounds earlier.” On German Marquez: “I  do believe in Marquez’s skill set and his ability to bounce back but I think I reached due to pitching flying off the boards in this draft. I wish I had taken someone like Mitch Haniger to fill my first UT spot.” 

Chris Blessing of Baseball HQ on Josh Donaldson: “Getting Donaldson in the 10th round at 3B was a motivated move given the strength of the position relative to the rest of the field. It was my favorite choice. There’s not much drop off between the 3rd or 4th best 3B and Donaldson’s likely production. Getting old guys at a discount is a strategy I’ve learned from the masters I’ve been in expert formats with before.” On Victor Robles: “I really liked my draft and hit a lot of the benchmarks I look at. I usually don’t look at ADPs intensely because I trust my process in drafts. I missed out on speed and shot Victor Robles up my chart as a response. I have a hard time with his barrel rates and where the Nats have bat him in the lineup. I’m not confident he’ll be worth the draft position, even factoring in the SBs. Definitely a player who I like better in a dynasty format.”

Frank Stampfl on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: “Am I allowed to say anybody else? He was a disappointment as a rookie but all reports indicate he’s in phenomenal shape plus he’s only turning 21 years in March. Expect a near .300 batting average with close to 30 home runs and exceptional counting stats.” On Jesus Luzardo: “Don’t get me wrong. I like Luzardo A LOT but in hindsight, I like Max Fried and Frankie Montas more. Luzardo showed us his electric stuff late last season but will likely be an innings cap. I trust guys like Fried and Montas to provide similar production with more innings in 2020.”

Colin Weatherwax on Yu Darvish: “He was the end of the elite options for me at the SP position so I was happy to make him my SP3 along with Bieber and Nola.” On Alex Bregman: “The World Series high was still on my mind when I made this pick. Looking back now, deGrom/JRam/Soto would have all been better picks.”

Nathan Mills on Shohei Ohtani: “Getting him at 58 overall is a steal, considering he’s a guy who is projected to put up 5 to 6 WAR when you combine his efforts as a pitcher and a hitter. He’s got first-round potential, and getting him in the fifth is a no-brainer.” On Andrew Benintendi: “I definitely think there’s bounce-back potential for the former top prospect, but I probably could’ve (and should’ve) waited a couple more rounds — maybe longer — to add that potential to my roster.”

Jonathan Metzelaar on Robinson Cano: “I think Cano’s nagging lower body injuries last year and the fact that he’s 37 mean most people are going to be staying far away, but there were a lot of signs that a healthy Cano could still return top-15 value at second base. His average exit velocity and barrel rate were exactly in line with his career norms, he still made a ton of contact, and his .256 AVG came with a .280 xAVG.” On Hyun-Jin Ryu: “For the purposes of this draft I was experimenting with grabbing a bunch of starting pitchers early to see how the rest of my team would turn out. Ryu was still a free agent at the time, and I thought I was getting good value here considering how well he pitched last year. But seeing that I could’ve have waited several rounds and grabbed a Zack Wheeler or a Madison Bumgarner for my #5 SP instead made this pick look like a real reach. “

Steve Gardner of USA Today Sports on Lucas Giolito: “He changed his mechanics last year and what a difference it made — he struck out 228 batters in 176 2/3 innings with an ERA (and FIP) under 3.50.  And he’s my SP3.” On Jo Adell: “It’s not that I don’t like the talent, it’s the uncertain playing time that makes him a reach at that point. Taking Luis Robert — which I was trying to do but was battling the clock — would have been a much better upside gamble.”

Alex Fast (again) on Omar Narvaez: “This is sort of cheating because at the time of this mock, Narvaez was yet to sign with the Brewers but man oh man he couldn’t have ended up in a better place. Last year, Narvaez knocked in 22 home runs in Seattle. I truly believe he could’ve had more had Tom Murphy not eaten into his playing time more than a usual backup catcher would. Narvaez is a lefty who pulls his HR, which is a recipe for success in Miller.” On Christian Walker and Yoan Moncada: “These two are linked: I should’ve forgone Moncada as Moustakas would give me 2B and instead picked a more solid 1B like Olson, Abreu or Gurriel.”

Drew Silva of Rotoworld on Chris Paddack: “I didn’t think Paddack would fall to me toward the end of the seventh round with such a SP-heavy top of the draft, but he did, and he can be a fantasy ace in his age-24 season.” On Josh Bell: “I worry about Bell’s power dropoff in the second half last year, and how the roster teardown that’s going on in Pittsburgh might affect his more team-dependent fantasy scoring numbers.”

Jim Chatterton on Jorge Soler: “I loved all of my OF picks, but Soler at the start of the 8th was too good to solidify my team’s power. I drafted him right in line with the mocks’ ADP but feel he’ll easily deliver beyond this selection in 2020.” On Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: “I drafted him as the first pick in the fourth round which felt like a reach but I did not realize how much I reached (about 20 picks) until seeing the other mocks. With who Vlad is it could still pay off but I passed up plenty of sure-fire talent.”

Colin Charles on Mitch Haniger: “Haniger’s 2019 was basically a disaster. His AVG and OBP both took a tumble, which are likely related to some troubles with his plate discipline. His O-Contact% and Z-Contact% both decreased from the 2018 levels, and his SwStr% went up. So why is he my favorite pick from the mock draft? Because I believe last year was an anomaly. In his MLB action over the previous 3 years, Haniger was posting ~22% K% and sub-10% SwStr% rates. The power was still easily there as he posted a career-high 12% Brls/BBE and popped 15 home runs in only 283 PAs.” On Jordan Hicks: “Didn’t realize how long he’d be out for.”

Ben Pernick on Jonathan Villar: “Many worry he’ll be a bust, but the power/speed ability and run production at a scarce position far outweigh the risk here, while concerns about regression and the new team are overblown.” On Amed Rosario: “While he offers potential for a well-rounded profile, the limits to his power/speed upside make him not worth reaching for, given the substantial depth at the position.”

Feature image by Zach Ennis. Follow him on Twitter @ZachEnnis.