Hitter List 8/19: Ranking the Top 150 Hitters for 2020

Hello there, and welcome to Hitter List, where every week throughout the season I’ll be flawlessly ranking the top 150 hitters in baseball.

This season is very, very weird for a lot of different reasons. Most notable is that just 60 regular season games are taking place. While that may be a merciful change for fans of the Baltimore Orioles, it’s an unprecedented and confounding one for fantasy managers, who are left to figure out how this might affect player values. After all, fewer games means a smaller sample size, which introduces more randomness into the equation. Compounding this is the fact that the National League has implemented the DH this year, and COVID-19 could claim a player at any time for at least a quarter of the season. It’s a lot to factor in, and nobody truly knows how any of it will impact how we should approach roster construction.

With that said, here are a few general philosophies I try to follow when ranking players:

 

• Stolen bases: Those who followed Hitter List last year know that I love me some stolen bases. My reasoning is pretty straightforward — they’ve been about as scarce over the past three years as they’ve been during any similar time period in the last 40 years. Obviously they’re not the end-all-be-all, but if we’re talking about players in a vacuum, I think it’s always really helpful to grab a guy who can chip in for the category. Now, truth be told, I’ve softened on this stance a good bit over the past year. But I will say this: In a 60-game season, I believe the value of a hitter with elite speed increases. Why? Because I think you’re more likely to luck into some surprise homers than you are some surprise stolen bases. Consider this: Two months into the 2019 season, Joc Pederson, Derek Dietrich, and Eddie Rosario were all in the top 10 in the league for home runs. But among the stolen base leaders, only Kevin Kiermaier registers as a surprising name — and even he always flashed above-average speed. I don’t think you would really blink if someone with middling power like Amed Rosario or Whit Merrifield popped nine homers this year. But I don’t think you’re as likely to back into above-average steals output from low-tier speedsters like Rougned Odor or Marcus Semien. It’s purely a theory, but I think locking down elite speed will be as important as ever this year.

 

• Coronavirus/IL Stints: Players who test positive for coronavirus during the season or hit the IL for any reason will be removed from the rankings until they return. In a short season, most injuries are going to cost hitters at least 15% of their at-bats. Furthermore, it’s to nobody’s benefit if I attempt to play doctor and presume when a player might return from an injury or a battle with COVID-19.

 

• Veterans vs. Prospects: Though I feel more comfortable going out on a limb with talented prospects this year, in general I tend to lean towards players with proven track records.

 

• Underlying Stats: Statcast is love, Statcast is life. I tend to place a premium on a hitter’s quality-of-contact metrics, especially if they pair favorably with their plate discipline and contact rates. I’m less interested in their surface-level numbers and more interested in the underlying skills that Statcast data can shed light on, as I think they are more helpful at predicting future success. That being said, given the short season, I’m going to try and bump up hot hitters more than I customarily would. Churning through hot hitters on waivers is a more realistic strategy this year, and could catapult teams to a championship if they catch lightning in a bottle a few times.

 

• Tiers: Tiers represent groupings of players I think could all conceivably produce at a similar level in terms of fantasy output. The actual rankings within the tiers are personal preference, but I think you could make an argument for anyone within each tier to be ranked above anyone else within that tier.

 

• Formats: These rankings apply only to leagues using standard scoring (R, RBI, HR, SB, AVG) and lean more toward rotisserie. I understand that hitter values can vary widely based on league format, but the only way to come up with a consistent way of ranking hitters is to hone in on one league type. Adjust accordingly for other formats.

 

• Player Movement: A player’s movement up or down in the rankings can sometimes be a byproduct of other players rising above or dropping below them. For example, if Kyle Schwarber lands on the IL and is dropped off the list, everyone ranked below him will automatically receive a +1 bump in the rankings. Conversely, if a player rises from one week to another, everyone he leapfrogs will take a -1 hit. Just something to keep in mind if you see a ranking change that doesn’t immediately make sense in the context of that particular player.

 

Hitter List Notes

 

• Injuries/Illnesses/Demotions: What an absolutely brutal week for hitter injuries. Yordan Alvarez, Tommy Pham, Ronald Acuna, DJ LeMahieu, Bo Bichette, Michael Brantley, Austin Hays, Nick Markakis, Will Smith, Aaron Judge, Andrew Benintendi, and C.J. Cron all hit the injured list this past week. Danny Santana and Robinson Cano were activated. Mallex Smith and Oscar Mercado were designated to their teams’ alternate sites.

 

• There’s A LOT of movement this week. Some of that is related to the list losing nearly 10% of its players from last week to injuries/demotions. Most of it is related to the fact that stats are starting to hit their early stabilization points, and we can give some more credence to hot/cold starts to the year for certain players. Strikeout rate (60 plate appearances), exit velocity (45 balls in play), and launch angle (50 balls in play) has stabilized for most hitters. Contact rate (100 plate appearances) will be stabilizing soon. This of course doesn’t mean these things are anywhere close to being set in stone. But you can actually start to trust these numbers a little more. As a result, I’ve started heavily trimming the fat from the list this week, and am trying to bump guys up whose underlying stats look promising. I think this is the point in the year where you have to start making those big decisions.

 

• We talked about how promising Anthony Santander was looking last week, and he just casually popped six more homers since then, including two multi-homer performances (one of which took place against Max Scherzer). Santander is now top-5 in baseball in home runs, runs, and RBI, and is batting a sweet .298. And it all looks legit right now too, as he’s spraying an absurd amount of line drives (37.7%) to all fields, barreling the ball at a 9.1% clip, and striking out just 12.8% of the time. The only real knock here is that he’s a bit of a free-swinger, but other than that this breakout looks like the real deal. Grab him everywhere you can.

 

• Fernando Tatis Jr. was the featured hitter last week, and apparently pushing him into the top-10 wasn’t good enough, as he just continues to dominate every aspect of the game. With Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger scuffling, and Ronald Acuna hitting the IL, the path has been cleared for Tatis Jr. to ascend to the #2 spot for the foreseeable future.

 

• I gave Jesse Winker’s profile a glance about a week into the season, saw he was doing his customary thing of hitting too many groundballs, and moved on. Then he went on an absolute tear, and I went back to see if there was something I was missing. And here’s the thing–he’s still posting a 50% groundball rate. Winker has always hit the ball with authority, and he’s always been great at making contact–the two things you value most in a hitter. But he’s never been great at elevating the ball, and that’s primarily what has held him back to this point. All this to say, I buy that he’ll post a high batting average and I think around 20 homers is a reasonable expectation in a full season. But as we’ve seen with guys like Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado, if you hit the ball on the ground a lot, it introduces a lot of volatility in your power and batting average output. So I wouldn’t be shocked if Winker hits an equally cold spell at some point.

 

• This really is the Year of the Seagers. We’ve already discussed Corey Seager’s encouraging performance to start the year, but Kyle Seager is also doing some wild, wild stuff. Though he’s always been a decent contact hitter, Seager has managed to cut his strikeout rate in half this season, posting just a 9.8% K-rate. He’s swinging a lot less at pitches both inside and outside of the zone, which may be a sign that he’s being more selective at the plate. Other than that though, there isn’t anything glaringly different about what he’s doing this year compared to years past, and he’s been hitting more groundballs than he ever has this season. I’m cautiously optimistic that Seager has somewhat improved this year, but am not fully buying into this being a wholesale breakout for him.

 

• Primarily employed against lefties to begin the year, Garrett Hampson has recently become entrenched as the Rockies’ everyday leadoff man and has taken full advantage of the opportunity, hitting .300 with 13 runs scored and three stolen bases on the year. I’m a fan of Hampson–I very inaccurately predicted he would win Rookie of the Year last season–and I think he has enough speed, contact ability, and pop to contribute in most standard categories. There’s no telling what new and exciting ways Colorado has devised to stunt his development, but for now he’s a really worthy add for those looking for help in the stolen base or runs scored categories.

 

• After a very quiet July, Franmil Reyes has gone off in August, smacking five homers and hitting .333 so far this month. He hits the ball harder than most hitters, and could easily reach 40 homers in a full season. The question has always been, will he hit for a high enough average to become a top-50 bat? Unfortunately he’s still whiffing far too much for me to be hopeful of that, but the batting average floor isn’t as low as a lot of people think, and the power is worth the risk.

 

• Statcast Sleepers: So here’s a new, fun segment that I figured was worth including to help people keep an eye on potential breakouts. In addition to some underrated options like Jake Cronenworth and JaCoby Jones, guys like Erik Gonzalez, Dominic Smith, and Robbie Grossman have been making some waves in terms of their quality-of-contact this year. Of the latter trio, I’m digging what Smith has been doing the most. He’s always been great at elevating the ball at an ideal launch angle, but he’s now pairing that with much harder contact and has started pulling the ball more. He’s also flashed excellent plate discipline and is talented enough defensively that he should be a regular fixture in the Mets’ lineup for the rest of the year. Another guy who has been absolutely on fire is Randal Grichuk. He seems to go on a run like this every year, so I’m not holding my breath that anything is significantly different about him this season. But there’s always been 30 to 35 home run power in his bat, so he’s definitely worth an add.

 

 

 

Rank	Hitter	Position	Change
1	Mike TroutT1	OF	-
2	Fernando Tatis Jr. T2	SS	+8
3	Mookie Betts	OF	+1
4	Trevor Story	SS	+2
5	Juan Soto	OF	+7
6	Christian Yelich	OF	-4
7	Cody Bellinger	1B, OF	-2
8	Francisco Lindor T3	SS	-1
9	Nolan Arenado	3B	-
10	José Ramírez	3B	+1
11	Freddie Freeman	1B	+3
12	Nelson Cruz	DH	+6
13	J.D. Martinez	DH	-
14	Charlie Blackmon	OF	+6
15	Trea Turner	SS	-7
16	Ketel Marte	2B, OF	-1
17	Anthony Rendon T4	3B	-1
18	Bryce Harper	OF	+7
19	Alex Bregman	3B, SS	+2
20	Starling Marte	OF	+2
21	Yoán Moncada	3B	+3
22	Xander Bogaerts	SS	+1
23	Austin Meadows T5	OF, DH	+4
24	Javier Báez	SS	-7
25	Pete Alonso	1B	+7
26	Nick Castellanos	OF	+2
27	José Abreu	1B, DH	+7
28	Marcell Ozuna	OF	+8
29	Eloy Jiménez	OF, DH	+11
30	Ramón Laureano	OF	+12
31	Anthony Rizzo T6	1B	+4
32	Luis Robert Jr.	OF	+7
33	Keston Hiura	2B	-7
34	Paul Goldschmidt	1B	+7
35	Matt Olson	1B, DH	+8
36	Jose Altuve	2B	-5
37	Manny Machado	3B, SS	+10
38	Whit Merrifield	2B, OF	+7
39	J.T. Realmuto	C	+12
40	Rafael Devers T7	3B	-11
41		3B, OF	+12
42	Jorge Soler	OF, DH	+12
43	Matt Chapman	3B	+12
44	Eugenio Suárez	3B	-11
45	Max Muncy	1B, 2B, 3B	+7
46	Jonathan Villar	2B, SS	+11
47	George Springer	OF	-3
48	Carlos Correa	SS	+12
49	Michael Conforto T8	OF	+10
50	Tim Anderson	SS	+14
51	Joey Gallo	OF, DH	+11
52	Corey Seager	SS	+23
53	Franmil Reyes	OF, DH	+28
54	Adalberto Mondesi	SS	-16
55	Shohei Ohtani	DH	+1
56	Josh Bell	1B	-8
57		3B	+6
58	Eddie Rosario	OF	+3
59	Jeff McNeil	2B, 3B, OF	-1
60	Gleyber Torres	2B, SS	+6
61	Dansby Swanson	SS	+9
62	Justin Turner	3B	+7
63	Cavan Biggio	2B, OF	+10
64	Kris Bryant	3B, OF	-15
65	Marcus Semien	SS	-15
66		3B	+5
67	Kyle Schwarber	OF	-
68	Yuli Gurriel	1B, 3B	+6
69	Jorge Polanco	SS	+3
70	Brandon Lowe	2B	+21
71	Max Kepler T9	OF	+6
72	Gary Sánchez	C, DH	+4
73	Wil Myers	OF	+6
74	Luke Voit	1B, DH	+12
75	Trent Grisham	OF	+3
76	Eric Hosmer	1B	+30
77	Byron Buxton	OF	+8
78	Anthony Santander	OF	+39
79	Jesse Winker	OF	+UR
80	Christian Walker	1B	+4
81	Mark Canha	1B, OF	+13
82	Willson Contreras	C	-2
83	Ian Happ		+12
84	Mike Yastrzemski T10	OF	+12
85	Teoscar Hernández	OF, DH	+22
86	Alex Verdugo	OF	+6
87	Nick Senzel	OF	+11
88	Victor Robles	OF	-23
89	Salvador Perez	C	+12
90	Kyle Seager	3B	+UR
91	Shin-Soo Choo	OF, DH	+11
92	Miguel Sanó T11	3B	-4
93	Kyle Lewis	OF	+17
94	Jesús Aguilar	1B	+14
95	Mitch Garver	C	-6
96	Danny Santana	OF	+UR
97	Yasmani Grandal	C	-14
98	Dylan Moore	1B, OF	+25
99	Dominic Smith	1B, OF	+UR
100	Elvis Andrus	SS	-10
101	Garrett Hampson	2B, OF	+UR
102	Jean Segura	SS	+2
103	Tommy Edman	2B, 3B, OF	-21
104	Kyle Tucker	OF	+10
105	Hunter Dozier	3B, OF, DH	-12
106		2B, OF	-7
107	Clint Frazier	OF	+43
108	Didi Gregorius	SS	+1
109	Carlos Santana	1B	-22
110	Colin Moran	3B	+14
111	Avisaíl García	OF, DH	-
112	Donovan Solano	2B	+9
113	Adam Eaton	OF	-10
114	Mike Tauchman	OF	+17
115	Daniel Murphy	1B, DH	+7
116	Amed Rosario	SS	-16
117	Howie Kendrick	1B, 2B	+17
118	Brian Anderson	3B, OF	+17
119	Tommy La Stella	2B, 3B	+UR
120	Nick Solak		+UR
121	Asdrúbal Cabrera	1B, 2B, 3B	+UR
122	Bryan Reynolds T12	OF	-17
123	Jo Adell	OF	-8
124	Hunter Renfroe	OF	-12
125	Khris Davis	DH	-9
126	Rhys Hoskins	1B	-1
127	David Dahl	OF	-30
128	Yandy Díaz	3B, DH	+11
129	AJ Pollock	OF	+UR
130	Eduardo Escobar	2B, 3B	-12
131	César Hernández	2B	+5
132	Luis Arraez	2B	-4
133	Randal Grichuk	OF, DH	+UR
134	Kole Calhoun	OF	+7
135	Ryan Braun	OF	-5
136	Edwin Encarnación	1B, DH	-16
137	Jake Cronenworth	1B, 2B	+1
138	Victor Reyes	OF	+5
139	Brandon Nimmo		+UR
140	Domingo Santana	OF, DH	-8
141	Aaron Hicks	OF	+1
142	Robbie Grossman	OF	+UR
143	Rio Ruiz	3B	+UR
144	Joc Pederson	OF, DH	-15
145	JaCoby Jones	OF	+UR
146	Robinson Canó	2B	+UR
147	David Peralta	OF	+UR
148	Erik González	3B, SS	+UR
149	Andrés Giménez	2B, SS	-3
150	Carter Kieboom	3B	-10

 

Graphic by JR Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter)