Hey everybody!
If you’re unfamiliar with this series, each week Ben Palmer highlights hitting matchups you should take advantage of in your fantasy baseball league and ones that you should try to avoid based on the pitching matchups those hitters are slated to face that week. This week, I’m pinch-hitting while he’s otherwise occupied; I’ll also try to highlight a catcher or two to stream (if there are catchers worth streaming) because that position can be a real pain.
If you’d like to learn more about when it becomes less risky to stream hitters (and pitchers) and when certain team stats start to stabilize during the year, check out this article.
Before we get too deep, be aware that the All-Star festivities will interfere with the beginning of the week. Every team has four off days and plays on three days, although the Mets and Phillies get off to an early start on Thursday, and the Red Sox and Rays play a doubleheader on Friday. The days off also allow teams to reset or reorder their rotations, making the probable starters harder to predict than usual. So with that in mind, let’s take a look at the hitters you should start and avoid for Week 16 (7/13-7/19) of the fantasy baseball season.
Notes: All pitching matchups mentioned here are based on projections as of this post’s publication. It is entirely possible that the actual matchups could change for any number of reasons. Keep in mind, this article is geared toward middle-of-the-road players, meaning you should be starting top-of-the-line bats regardless of the matchup. Always start your studs.
START
Athletics and Nationals hitters – The first recommendation is an easy two-for-one special, as the A’s and Nats start their second halves with a three-game set in West Sacramento. Sutter Health Park doesn’t show up on the default Statcast park factors because it’s only been in use by the A’s for 2 years. If you’re willing to accept a two-year park factor instead of the typical three, the A’s temporary home is the second-most hitter-friendly park in the majors to Coors. Statcast says the park inflates homers by 20% relative to the league average.
It’s hard to predict who might get the first starts out of the break, but it probably doesn’t matter either way in this case. The Nationals are currently lined up to start Foster Griffin, Cade Cavalli, and Zack Littell. Griffin and Cavalli are pitching pretty well for the Nationals, but neither is dominant enough that you’d feel comfortable starting them in Sacramento – so take the park advantage and juicy matchup against Littell (2.3 HR/9 allowed) for A’s hitters.
The A’s are scheduled to send Jeffrey Springs, JT Ginn, and Gage Jump to the hill against the Nats. Jump looks like a legitimate major league starter, but he’s had a couple of poor starts in Sacramento between strong road starts. Meanwhile, the wheels have fully come off for Springs this season. He’s giving up a .287/.343/.561 line at home – that’s turning every hitter into Junior Caminero minus 27 points of OBP. Ginn has had more success this year, but his splits tell you not to be afraid. He’s allowing a .261/.352/.375 line at home vs a .165/.254/.313 line on the road.
CATCHER TO STREAM: Jonah Heim has two starts at first in the A’s last three games, and Nick Kurtz is currently on the IL with a sprained thumb capsule. He’s catcher-eligible with 9 homers and an .805 OPS at home. Like any marginal A’s hitter, I’d stream him in for every home game and bench him for every road game.
Reds hitters – The Reds travel to Colorado for three games against Kyle Freeland, Ryan Feltner, and Michael Lorenzen. You’re obviously starting Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart everywhere, but you should definitely have Tyler Stephenson in your lineup as well. Stephenson is the 27th-ranked catcher by the Fangraphs auction calculator on the season, but he’s running a .782 OPS over the last month (96 points above his season line). JJ Bleday has shown some signs of coming out of his slump as well, posting a 105 wRC+ over the past two weeks. You’d target each of these matchups in a neutral park, so you should definitely enjoy it in Colorado.
Cardinals hitters – The Cardinals start with a series in Arizona. They’re lined up to face Merrill Kelly, Mitch Bratt, and Eduardo Rodriguez. Rodriguez has had outstanding results despite a poor process all season. I’m stubborn enough to insist that you should still be targeting his starts, but I can see why you’d want to sit hitters for that game. Kelly has had poor process and poor results all season, pitching to a an ERA that matches all his estimators above 5 – and with a 7.47 xERA. Bratt has made one three-inning start in the majors, against the Cardinals three weeks ago. Stuff+ liked his repertoire (102 Stuff+) in the tiny sample but thought he had poor control (91 Location+). Chase Field is tied for the third most hitter-friendly park in the majors. It suppresses homers a bit, but enhances every other batted ball outcome.
Honorable Mention: Red Sox/Rays hitters – The Red Sox and Rays start the second half with a doubleheader before playing two more games. The four-game set is in Fenway, but I wouldn’t target any of these pitchers based on matchups. Still, the extra game means the hitters get 25% more opportunities than other teams, while in a normal week, an extra game is only a 16.7% margin.
AVOID
Giants hitters – The Giants have a three-game series in Seattle, facing Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Bryan Woo. Sure, they might dodge Bryce Miller, but you wouldn’t want to target those matchups either, especially not in Seattle. Gilbert has been weirdly better on the road this year, but that’s not the case for his career. Woo has had the worst results of these Mariners starters for the full season, but he’s been dominant at home. Batters are hitting just .156/.195/.222 off Woo in Seattle and killing him for a .295/.333/.461 line when he’s on the road. A number of Giants hitters have been on fire in recent days, but I’d be sitting your Casey Schmitt and Victor Bericoto types for this one.
Angels hitters – The Angels host Detroit for three games. They’re scheduled to get Tarik Skubal, Framber Valdez, and Casey Mize as their opposing starters. Dodging Skubal goes without saying. Mize has been excellent all year as well, running a 20.0% K-BB rate through his first 71.2 innings. Framber is his same maddeningly inconsistent self. In his past ten starts, he’s allowed 4 or 5 runs on 5 occasions, and 1 run in his other 5 starts. You could hope the coin flip is in your favor if you need volume in a daily league, but if you’re setting your lineup for the week, I’d stay away.
Guardians hitters – Cleveland hosts Pittsburgh for three games. Pittsburgh is scheduled to send Jared Jones, Paul Skenes, and Braxton Ashcraft to the mound. Jones might not be the monster we thought he’d be as a prospect (yet), but his ERA estimators say he’s a mid-3’s ERA starter with very good stuff and excellent control. Skenes might be mortal this year, but even mortal Skenes is outstanding. He had a rough outing two starts ago, but bounced back with a dominant start hosting the Braves. In that one, he averaged 97 on his fastballs, a tick up from his previous outing and allaying some concerns about unreported injuries. Ashcraft is in the midst of having a tough start while I’m writing this, but even the bad start leaves him with a 3.49 ERA and estimators below that. Chase DeLauter might just be good enough to start for this series, but with José Ramírez out, I’d sit every other Guardian.
Feature image by Michael Packard (@artbymikep on Twitter) / Photo by Joe Robbins / Icon Sportswire
