What’s up everyone!
If you’re unfamiliar with this series, each week we take a look at some hitting matchups you should take advantage of and some hitting matchups you should avoid, based on who the hitters will likely be facing on the mound. I’ll also be focusing on catchers you can stream each week since we all know that catcher can be an especially tricky position in fantasy.
If you’d like to learn more about when it becomes less risky to stream hitters (and pitchers) and when certain team stats start to stabilize during the year, check out this article.
So let’s take a look at the hitters to start and avoid in Week 18 (7/29-8/4) of the fantasy baseball season with one extra caveat: with the trade deadline coming up on the 30th, more of these projected starters will likely change than usual as teams welcome (or say goodbye to) some starters. As such, I’ll be placing a little more emphasis on overall team FIP this week, especially when looking at matchups later in the week.
Notes: All pitching matchups mentioned here are based on projections as of this post’s publication. It is entirely possible that the actual matchups could change for any number of reasons. Keep in mind, this article is geared toward middle-of-the-road players, meaning you should be starting top-of-the-line bats regardless of the matchup. Always start your studs.
START
Baltimore Orioles hitters – the Orioles have a rare eight-game slate this week thanks to a Monday doubleheader that kicks off a four-game series with the Toronto Blue Jays. The Blue Jays have the third-worst FIP in the league, making this an ideal start to the week for your Orioles. The O’s should face Yariel Rodríguez, Bowden Francis, Chris Bassitt, and Yusei Kikuchi in this series. While the latter two pitchers have had some success this year, they aren’t top-tier arms that should prevent you from starting any Orioles hitters.
After hosting Toronto, the O’s will hit the road to face the Cleveland Guardians, who are middle-of-the-pack in terms of team FIP at fifteenth-best. Currently, dates with Ben Lively, Carlos Carrasco, Xzavion Curry, and Tanner Bibee are lined up for the Orioles, none of whom should cause you to bench your Baltimore bats.
Colton Cowser is available in about 80% of ESPN leagues and boasts a 1.097 OPS over the past two weeks. He’s not quite an everyday player for the O’s, but he deserves to be in your lineup as much as anybody while he’s swinging a hot bat. Overall, an eight-game week with some great matchups makes this an ideal week to start some Orioles hitters.
Chicago Cubs hitters – the Cubs have a full seven-game week this week, starting with three games against the Cincinnati Reds (15th-worst team FIP) before hosting the St. Louis Cardinals (14th-best team FIP) for a classic rivalry series at Wrigley Field.
Though the Reds have a fairly solid rotation, the Cubs will be helped by playing on the road in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. In this three-game set, they will face Frankie Montas and Nick Lodolo as well as a mystery starter on Tuesday’s game. If you have Ian Happ, make sure he’s in your lineup, as he tends to hit the ball extremely well in this park.
Against the Cardinals, the Cubs will face Kyle Gibson, Miles Mikolas, Andre Pallante, and Lance Lynn. It’s a good roll of the dice to avoid staff ace Sonny Gray, making this an even more intriguing matchup for Cubs hitters as a whole
There aren’t many Cubs players worth adding with low ownership, but it’s worth noting that Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, and Nico Hoerner have all performed well over the past two weeks after scuffling at several points this season.
CATCHER TO STREAM: If you’re in a super-deep or NL-only league, it’s worth giving Miguel Amaya a look this week in daily leagues when he’s behind the dish. He’s 9/14 with a home run over the past two weeks, so there’s some upside here if you’re desperate for a streamer.
Atlanta hitters – Atlanta also has a seven-game week lined up, starting with three games on the road against the Milwaukee Brewers, baseball’s seventh-worst team by FIP. They’ll face Colin Rea, Bryse Wilson, and Freddy Peralta in this series. While Peralta is a talented pitcher, he’s also shown to be exploitable at points this season.
Next up is a four-game series against the Miami Marlins, who own the 13th-worst FIP in the league. Atlanta projects to face Trevor Rogers, Max Meyer, Kyle Tyler, and Edward Cabrera in this series, all of which are plus-matchups for Atlanta’s strong lineup.
CATCHER TO STREAM: Travis d’Arnaud is on another one of his hot streaks right now, slashing .444/.524/.778 over the past two weeks. Of course, he will split time with Sean Murphy, but d’Arnaud is a great pickup for catcher-needy teams right now.
Kansas City Royals hitters – another team with a full seven-game schedule this week is the Kansas City Royals, who round out our “Start” recommendations this week. The Royals will be playing all seven games against division opponents, beginning with three games against the Chicago White Sox (fourth-worst FIP) before facing the Detroit Tigers for four games (fourth-best FIP).
The Royals will face Chris Flexen, Jonathan Cannon, and Drew Thorpe against the White Sox, meaning they’ll avoid a date with Garrett Crochet. Against the Tigers, the Royals are currently scheduled to face Keider Montero, Tarik Skubal, Joey Wentz, and Jack Flaherty. Those are some pretty tough matchups on paper, but it’s yet to be seen whether Skubal and Flaherty will still be pitching for Detroit by the time those matchups roll around.
Outside of the main Royals, you should have in your lineup, Hunter Renfroe is a decent play in OBP leagues this week, with a .364 mark across the past 15 days. It’s also worth noting that MJ Melendez should be back from a rehab assignment by this point and could be worth a start against right-handed pitchers this week.
AVOID
Oakland Athletics hitters – it’s a tough week to recommend starting A’s hitters, as it’s only a five-game slate this week for Oakland. Their week begins with a two-game series against the San Francisco Giants, who are 13th-best in league FIP. They’ll face Robbie Ray and Alex Cobb in this series, who have made a combined one start in 2024. Ray looked solid in his first start this week, while Cobb will be making his season debut if he is activated off of the 60-day IL.
Next, the A’s will face the Los Angeles Dodgers for three games. The Dodgers own the league’s 14th-worst FIP, and the A’s will avoid most of their more formidable arms with matchups against Gavin Stone, Justin Wrobleski, and River Ryan. In daily leagues, there may be some intrigue with some of these matchups, but the five-game slate makes this a good week to keep your Athletics hitters on the bench.
Seattle Mariners hitters – it’s no secret that the Mariners have struggled mightily as an offensive unit this season, but that’s not the only reason we recommend benching your Seattle hitters this week. The Mariners have two tough three-game series this week against the Boston Red Sox (eighth-best team FIP) and Philadelphia Phillies (best team FIP).
Against the Red Sox, Seattle will face Cooper Criswell, Nick Pivetta, and Brayan Bello. While they’ll avoid some of Boston’s tougher arms, these are all pitchers with decent stuff who can stymie the Mariners strikeout-prone lineup. Against the Phillies, the Mariners get Taijuan Walker, Ranger Suárez, and Zack Wheeler. These overall tough matchups coupled with Seattle’s offensive struggles mean that you should leave your Mariners on the bench for now.
San Diego Padres hitters – the Padres are another team with only five games this week, with two games against the Los Angeles Dodgers (14th-worst FIP) and three games against the Colorado Rockies (worst overall team FIP).
Those matchups might not seem too intimidating on paper, but they will face two excellent pitchers against the Dodgers in Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw. This means that Padres hitters won’t be worth starting until their weekend series against the Rockies, but they’ll be hosting Colorado, meaning they won’t get the added benefit of playing in Coors Field. If you’re in a daily league, streaming in the weekend series isn’t the worst idea, but the short week makes this a good week to sit most of your Padres.
NOTE: the Tampa Bay Rays and San Francisco Giants also have five-game weeks this time around, meaning those players are good sits for the same reasons as Padres and Athletics hitters.