Since this is my first discussion of the list since I’ve dropped my other, it’s time to take some victory laps, and also eat some crow. I’ll go and address notable ones by tier.

Victory Laps

Tier two:

• • As much as it pains me to say, Trevor Bauer has maintained his 2020 pace, outside of some dingers. I’m holding him at his spot because of the volume I expect.

Tier three:

• • Corbin Burnes! I’m a believer. He went on the IL with what many are speculating is COVID-19, but he leads all pitchers in K-BB% and has yet to surrender a walk.
  • Joe Musgrove is shoving! He ranks just behind Shane Bieber in K-BB%, and when you sandwich his 2020 and 2021 numbers, he ranks in the top ten in K-BB% in that time span.

Tier five:

• • I feel like I can victory lap Tyler Mahle being good, although he hasn’t been quite as dominant as I’d hoped.
  • I regret not going harder on Trevor Rogers in the preseason, but I thought he was an innings limit risk due to his role. As it turns out, Sixto Sánchez is out of the rotation for now! Rogers is legit.
  • Jameson Taillon is going to give up more home runs than you’d like, but he’s so good.
  • People made me feel like I ranked Sandy Alcantara too high before. I didn’t rank him high enough.

Tier six:

• • Zach Eflin wields the fourth-best K/BB of all starters. (Although I’ll admit, his K-BB% is good, but not great.)
  • I feel good about JT Brubaker being pretty high on my initial list. He’s legit!

Tier seven:

• • Yusei Kikuchi has flashed a ton of promise and seems like he’s trending up.

Tier eight:

• • I almost wrote an article for Lookout Landing saying that the Mariners should sign Tyler Anderson. I’ve been high on him for a while now, and with the Mariners’ injuries, they should have!

Tier nine: 

• • I’ve never quite fully understood the Germán Márquez hype.
  • I liked Triston McKenzie too much to factor in the velocity concerns.

Tier eleven:

• • Chris Flexen has been a solid late add. I still think there’s more here.

Eating Crow

Tier one:

• • Gerrit Cole has shoved more than I anticipated. Shane Bieber has been good, just not as dominant as Cole. That’s reflected in them swapping spots.

Tier three:

• • Despite being a contact suppressor with plus stuff, I had my doubts with Tyler Glasnow because of a two-pitch mix and low IPS. He added a slider, and he’s been incredible.

Tier four:

• • I ranked Zack Wheeler low because of a low K-BB% and injury risk. He’s the best contact suppressor in baseball outside of Noah Syndergaard, so if he’s getting whiffs, he’s incredible.
  • I initially had Luis Castillo ranked at number four on my initial list before dropping him down to number twelve. That looks like it was a judicious decision, even if I think he turns it around.

Tier five:

• • I think we all made this mistake, but Kenta Maeda has been struggling.
  • I wanted to see him continue his success some, but John Means looks like he’s figured it out.

Tier six:

• • I didn’t think Freddy Peralta had a shot at starting, and I thought command would be a bigger issue. I was wrong!
  • Zach Plesac has been disappointing, but there’s hope!
  • I literally didn’t even consider Carlos Rodón.
  • I think he’ll be fine, but Max Fried hasn’t been great.

Tier seven:

• • Huascar Ynoa? Huascar Ynoa! He’s thrown strikes as well as anyone in the league, and the home run issue looks more like a bad day than a prominent feature of his game.
  • I think Aaron Civale gets the kinks worked out, but man, I expected much more.

Tier eight:

• • Nathan Eovaldi’s spring training velocity should have been a stronger indicator for me.
  • This is perhaps the biggest whiff of draft season for me. Kyle Hendricks just had a pretty strong outing, but he’d been getting absolutely destroyed before that.
  • I wrote Adbert Alzolay off too much. This is what I get for being too surface-level with my analysis!

Tier ten:

• • Marco Gonzales got shelled before looking like he was figuring it out. Then he strained his forearm. Yikes!

Photos from Jeff Robinson, Jimmy Simmons, Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire | Design by Quincey Dong (@threerundong on Twitter)