I’d like to begin by thanking Steve Drumwright for basically writing part of my lead today in MLB News & Moments. I read Steve’s article this morning, and after he mentioned that four relevant division series this week are between clubs that have yet to face each other this season, I thought to myself, “That’s interesting. I believe that was in my notes for my article as well.” I checked them over, and what do you know? Next to each of the matchups Steve mentioned, “First meeting” was chicken-scratched across the page.
Anyway, thank you again, Steve, for laying the foundation for what should be a great week of division baseball. All this after MLB’s Rivalry Weekend, which had some fantastic battles as well.
The top four series below are undeniable. Those are the four Steve mentioned in his lead today that showcase division rivals who have yet to play each other. No. 5 was a little trickier, but ultimately I stuck with the division-rival theme between two winning clubs in the NL Central.
Let’s begin.
No. 1: Dodgers (29-18) at Padres (28-18)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
If there’s a true rivalry in MLB today, I suppose this one is at the top. Even though this series lacks what I consider a crucial aspect to any great rivalry, it’s still usually the most entertaining get-together among teams we’ve seen this decade. What’s lacking, you might ask? How about parity? Let’s be honest, even though the Padres have been the NL West’s second-place finisher four times since 2020, they haven’t actually won this division since 2006. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have dominated the NL West since 2013, having finished out of first place only once.
It’s the Dodgers’ world, and the Padres are surviving in it, but not thriving. They’ve had their chances but have failed to defeat their arch-rival in both the 2020 and 2024 NLDS. Everyone remembers San Diego’s choke job in ’24, when they had a 2-1 series lead against the Blue Crew, but were held scoreless over the final two contests and lost the series in five.
Even last year, the Friars hung around in the division race, but ended up finishing three games back of the first-place Dodgers. In their head-to-head meetings, Los Angeles won nine of 13 contests. Had the Padres taken a few more of those matches, they would have won the NL West.
Maybe this is the year when San Diego finally breaks through and takes down the two-time defending World Series champs. If that’s in their plans, this week’s three-game series at their home park could be crucial. These clubs are tied in the loss column, with the Dodgers technically up a half-game in the standings.
A rivalry? Yes. A great rivalry? No. If the latter is ever going to happen, then the Padres need to show up when it matters. It also wouldn’t hurt if San Diego’s Fernando Tatis Jr. went yard for the first time this season. Maybe this is the type of series that gets him going.
No. 2: Brewers (26-18) at Cubs (29-18)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
In a similar fashion to the series above, one team has dominated this division recently, while the other has been good but not good enough to finish higher than second place for a while now. The Brewers are looking for a fourth straight NL Central title, while the Cubs are hoping that their three consecutive second-place finishes will be over at season’s end. Their goal is to win their first division championship since 2020.
The difference between this rivalry and the Dodgers-Padres is that when the Cubs and Brewers have played head-to-head, it’s been close. Going back to the start of 2022, Milwaukee is 30-28 versus Chicago in the regular season. That’s tight, unlike the Dodgers, who are 37-21 versus San Diego in that same timeframe.
Last year, Milwaukee won the division by five games over the Cubs, losing the season series to their rivals, 7-6. With these squads separated by one 1 ½ games in the standings, with three other foes all within five games of first place, there’s no argument from me that this is the most entertaining division in 2026.
Expected pitching matchups:
Monday: MIL – Brandon Sproat (8 G, 6 GS, 1-2, 5.75 ERA) versus CHC – Shota Imanaga (9 G, 9 GS, 4-3, 2.32 ERA)
Tuesday: MIL – Jacob Misiorowski (9 GS, 3-2, 2.12 ERA) versus CHC – Ben Brown (14 G, 2 GS, 1-1, 1.60 ERA)
Wednesday: MIL – Kyle Harrison (8 GS, 4-1, 2.09 ERA) versus CHC – Edward Cabrera (9 GS, 3-1, 4.06 ERA)
No. 3: Blue Jays (21-25) at Yankees (28-19)
Series length: Four games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
Now we leave the National League for a bit to focus on the AL East. Can we call this a rivalry yet? I’m on the fence here, leaning more toward the answer of “Need to see more,” before claiming that the Blue Jays and Yankees are anything more than two teams that play in the same division, and, therefore, are natural rivals. Does that make sense? In other words, they play each other plenty every year, but are they a legit rival?
The difference between the first two series in the top five and this one is that these teams haven’t consistently finished first and second in the AL East. The Yankees have two division titles this decade, while the Blue Jays claimed the AL East in 2025 for the first time since ’15. Yes, they met in the ALDS last season, but it wasn’t a great series by any means. Toronto dominated New York in four games, and not one of those was settled by under three runs.
The other issue heading into this series is Toronto’s subpar record. At 9.5 games behind the first-place Rays and 6.5 games back of the Yankees for the second spot, I think we’re in a situation where the Blue Jays are one sweep away this week from being eliminated from realistic division title consideration. I would go so far as to say Toronto has to win this series, and a four-game split would be detrimental to their AL East hopes. It probably sounds crazy, especially considering that this team was one inning away from a World Series championship last year, but this is 2026, and I’m not liking this Toronto squad nearly as much as the ’25 version.
As for the pitching matchups in this series, I think fans are in for a treat on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Tuesday: TOR – Dylan Cease (9 GS, 3-1, 2.41 ERA) versus NYY – Will Warren (9 GS, 5-1, 3.42 ERA)
Wednesday: TOR- Trey Yesavage (4 GS, 1-1, 1.40 ERA) versus NYY – Cam Schlittler (10 GS, 6-1, 1.35 ERA)
Is it a fun series? Absolutely. But for this potential budding rivalry to reach the heights of the previous two series mentioned, both teams must consistently be in playoff contention. We’ll see if the Blue Jays are serious contenders beginning on Monday.
No. 4: Guardians (26-22) at Tigers (20-27)
Series length: Four games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
I’m beginning to get the sense that the AL Central crown is once again going to belong to the Cleveland Guardians. At 26-22, and the only team in the division with a positive run differential, it’s hard to feel confident that any of the other four squads will come out ahead over a 162-game season. Other than the White Sox, who just came off an impressive series win over the Chicago Cubs, no other team in the AL Central is within four games of the reigning two-time division champs. I like what the White Sox are building for the future. However, are we confident that, after three 100-plus-loss seasons, the South Siders can pull off one of the great turnarounds in MLB history and actually win the division after finishing 28 games out of first place in ’25? I’m not so sure, but if they are going to do it, this is probably the right division to be in, given its current state.
Let’s talk about one of those struggling teams in the AL Central, the Detroit Tigers. At 2-8 over their last 10 games and losers of four straight series, the Tigers find themselves tied with the Kansas City Royals for last place with a record of 20-27. The Tigers and Royals were supposed to be Cleveland’s main threats this year, but neither has played consistently well from Day 1. Detroit comes into this important four-game series with a 4.03 starter ERA. That ranks 13th in MLB. For a team that was supposed to have one of the most formidable rotations in the league, that number is disturbing. Granted, they’ve been without their ace, Tarik Skubal, who has been on the IL since April with loose bone chips in his elbow. But, even with a healthy Skubal, this franchise will have a difficult time winning the division if the pitching as a whole doesn’t improve. This is a team that needs great pitching because the offense is average at best, currently ranking in the bottom half of MLB in runs scored, slugging percentage, and OBP.
The Guardians won last year’s season series with Detroit, 8-5.
No. 5: Pirates (24-23) at Cardinals (27-19)
Series length: Three games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
It was a disaster of a series for Pittsburgh when these NL Central squads met for the first time in late April. The Cardinals came into PNC Park as losers of five of their previous six contests. They went on to sweep the Pirates in four games, which obviously provided the spark they needed to turn their season around, as they haven’t dropped a series this month. St. Louis is 1.5 games behind Chicago in the division.
Meanwhile, the Buccos were just swept at home over the weekend by the Philadelphia Phillies and are now five games out of first place. It was a series that saw Pittsburgh lose 6-0 in each of the final two contests. Paul Skenes looked human on Sunday, allowing five runs over five frames for the loss. What’s that mean for this upcoming three-game set with St. Louis? Well, we know Skenes won’t be pitching against the team he’s never defeated (0-5 career win-loss record versus St. Louis). However, the Pirates will deploy their next best options. Here’s a look at the expected pitching matchups.
Tuesday: PIT – Mitch Keller (9 GS, 4-2, 3.59 ERA) versus STL – Matthew Liberatore (9 GS, 2-2, 4.40 ERA)
Wednesday: PIT – Carmen Mlodzinski (9 G, 7 GS, 3-3, 4.40 ERA) versus STL – Michael McGreevy (9 GS, 3-2, 2.10 ERA)
Thursday: PIT – Braxton Ashcraft (9 GS, 2-2, 3.09 ERA) versus STL – Dustin May (9 GS, 3-4, 4.81 ERA)
Missed the Top Five
Orioles (21-26) at Rays (30-15): Three games
Reds (24-23) at Phillies (24-23): Three games
Atlanta (32-15) at Marlins (21-26): Four games
Mets (20-26) at Nationals (23-24): Four games
Red Sox (19-27) at Royals (20-27): Three games
Astros (19-29) at Twins (21-26): Three games
Rangers (22-24) at Rockies (18-29): Three games
A’s (23-23) at Angels (16-31): Four games
Giants (20-27) at Diamondbacks (22-23): Three games
White Sox (24-22) at Mariners (22-26): Three games
