Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Saturday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Will Warren (NYY) vs KCR (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 11 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 93 pitches.
It’s been a struggle to figure out what to do with Will Warren, but he sure made it easy after Saturday’s start against the Royals: 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 11 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 93 pitches (W). For a pitcher with solid runway in the rotation (it’s going to be a while before both Cole and Rodón are back), a start like this certainly gives him a buffer before moving on from him.
And yet, I have to express that this wasn’t the start I expected it to be when I watched it. When we saw Warren exhibit brilliant K/BB marks early last season, it was a product of his breakers and changeup leading the way and fastballs acting as supplemental pitches. It flipped during the year and my hope for a secondary ascension has waned with each outing, and this start didn’t do much to fill the cup with 70% fastballs.
But those fastballs. Oh my. His four-seamer was a menace to LHB per usual, but what I loved the most was his shift to save the sinker as a surprise two-strike pitch to both LHB and RHB, which returned four strikeouts on the day with two extra inches of ride (19″!). It was delicious. Yes, I wish he had a better feel for the sweeper as he didn’t spot it well to either lefties or righties, and I wish the changeup that fanned two late in the game was present for the full outing. And still, that four-seamer’s flat attack and solid 15/16″ vert at his low arm angle continues to mess up hitters. We’re holding and hoping that sinker’s movement sticks with some gains on his secondaries. Just a little, please.
Let’s see how every other SP did Saturday:
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) vs ATL (L) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 93 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. I hate that the WHIP is still an issue. Groundball pitchers, y’all.
Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) vs SDP (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 86 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! That’s a Gold Star for Kikuchi as it wasn’t just productive, but elite. Now he’s going to get the Royals + 2x CHW matchups and it sure looks tempting. Sadly, I can’t endorse it. This was four-seamers getting hit a ton, while his splitter, cutter, and curve were far more effective than usual. Not lucky – the splitter and curve specifically were commanded beautifully at the bottom of the zone to RHB – this was Kikuchi having an outlier day of feel that I’m not ready to fully endorse. That said, we’ve see him go on a run in the past and if you want to see how it goes, by all means. That usually comes with his slider leading the way, though, and it’s harder to believe he’ll thrive with a different approach.
Germán Márquez (SDP) @ LAA (ND) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 88 pitches.
Ohhhh snap, that’s fun. Márquez nailed his curveball in this one, despite what the 57% strike rate will tell you – he hung right around the edge of the plate down-and-away, making it tougher for the Angels to take advantage of the terrible pair of heaters that have very little difference between them. Yes, there is a little bit of temptation when I see @ARI, CHW, @SFG ahead…I can’t. This feels like the realistic ceiling and the floor is…bad.
Paul Skenes (PIT) vs TBR (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 64 pitches.
Aces gonna get his start cut short by rain on his own bobblehead day. That’s so cruel. Huh, I said the same thing when he was drafted by the Pirates. COME ON, NICK.
Chris Sale (ATL) @ PHI (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 101 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Just. Stay. Healthy.
Brandon Woodruff (MIL) @ MIA (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 92 pitches.
Oh dang, seven innings? 92 pitches?! It’s my favorite thing in life – pleasant surprise. I can’t be alone in wondering if he can make a 92 mph set of heaters and an 89 mph cutter work for this long, though his 83 mph changeup is a gamechanger, which he’s found recently, with a massive 47% usage to LHB here (26% last year!) at an 85% strike rate and 6/20 whiffs.
Gavin Williams (CLE) vs BAL (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 100 pitches.
YOOOO. 70% strikes on everything. His four-seamer was the lowest of all five pitches (I feel like I’m cheating include the one cutter for a strike, but it’s technically correct, the best kind of correct. Also, one cutter?! I guess why move away from the rest that is clearly working?). It was awfully fun seeing Gavin throw 78% breakers to RHB, with just one hit allowed…off a sinker. This is the prince who was promised, becoming the King Cole he should be and more – he’s even going sweepers under the nitro zone to LHB for 9/19 whiffs. That’s absurd. Man, I really hope he can keep up this command. We just saw an ace. Now we hope we get it often enough to get the AGA label.
Tarik Skubal (DET) @ BOS (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 89 pitches.
Aces gonna ace for a Gallows Pole. That changeup was as good as ever at 12/25 whiffs. Yes, you did just hear me laugh through the screen.
Jameson Taillon (CHC) vs NYM (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 100 pitches.
Whoa, he’s at 20″ of vert on his four-seamer now and his cutter has insane -7/8″ cut that demolished the depleted Mets lineup. Sadly, he gets the Dodgers up next and I can’t endorse holding for the Padres after…wait, Reds Carpet after that. Yeah, I’m not holding for two weeks.
George Kirby (SEA) vs TEX (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 96 pitches.
He had a few whiffs with the slider to RHB, but he’s not consistently locating it right to dominate with it, while the sinker hung a bit too much over the plate. These are the little things that take a Dusty Donut (that WHIP is annoying) and turns it into a stud outing. He’s so close.
Andre Pallante (STL) @ HOU (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 87 pitches.
Massive props to Pallante for this Birthday Party, who spotted his slider and sinker beautifully to the RHB-lineup, and allowed all three hits to LHB (Yordan for two, of course). Maybe that’s something to note – he has a decent chance against RHB-exclusive lineups.
Cade Cavalli (WSN) vs SFG (ND) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 92 pitches.
An early error in the third extended the inning, though all four frames featured at least 20 pitches as Cavalli didn’t have stellar command, locating too much over the plate. Koufax did him no favors with his four-seamer (1/6 outs in play), but don’t forget how hittable that fastball can be.
Taj Bradley (MIN) vs CIN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 99 pitches.
When will you start respecting Bradley? Uh, this was a stroll down the Reds Carpet with a velocity drop of two ticks…that is likely a product of 41 degree weather. Jeez, get it together, Minnesota. Seriously. This might have been the best game I’ve seen from his cutter, while the splitter is still an overleveled Blastoise who is disobeying orders, leaving you slack-jawed as it floats well above the zone for the seventh time. I’m glad Bradley will get a revenge game in Tampa Bay (dome!) next time out and sure, start him if you’ve got him. I hope his success continues for ages.
Max Scherzer (TOR) @ ARI (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 74 pitches.
Ah yes, the ole “Just because he was terrible today doesn’t mean he’s terrible tomorrow,” adage. But it was one strikeout, HAISTBMBWT?! For this streaming pick? Your bread deserves a better master. He’ll get the Guardians next and it’s a coin flip once again.
Ryan Feltner (COL) vs LAD (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 87 pitches.
Hosting the Dodgers in Coors?! That’s cool, Feltner. You should be proud. But my velocity was down. Enjoy the moments you have.
Zac Gallen (ARI) vs TOR (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 88 pitches.
He’s not putting batters away effectively and his slider is failing against RHB plenty (four hits, though one was an unlucky single on a good slider out of the zone). The changeup still struggles to LHB. He’s not dominating. Yet. He has two more starts to get it together – SDP, @ CHC – before he faces the Pirates and I’d love to feel cool with that.
Emmet Sheehan (LAD) @ COL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 77 pitches.
Oh, so we’re back to 93.8 mph, are we? And failing to hit 96 mph once? Cool cool cool. At least the worse velocity didn’t open the door for destruction in Coors, and I guess we’re trying this out against the Cubs, but man. Just let me feel good about this.
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) @ SEA (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 95 pitches.
He did a good job of going BSB with cutters and splitters, while two hits to RHB were both under 80 EV off inside sinkers. Koufax was a cruel fella here and it’s just a Dusty Donut at the end of the day. All good here.
Dean Kremer (BAL) @ CLE (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 95 pitches.
He was my streaming pick of the day and was flexing a no-hitter through four, until a walk, single, and poor 2-2 heater inside left the yard for all three runs. So close. I was hoping Kremer’s excellent splitter would return for another LHB-heavy start and that’s what we got, with 11/45 whiffs across 47% usage, and he commanded everything else well to make it work, outside of that one fastball. He’ll get an even split of LHB/RHB against the Red Sox up next, which may be something to avoid given his Dean Wolf nickname, but he could be a new guy this year, too. I hope he is, for Baltimore’s sake.
Freddy Peralta (NYM) @ CHC (L) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 93 pitches.
I’ll be honest Peralta, the Mets really needed you to step here. It’s been a rough two weeks for the orange and blue. This wasn’t a terrible start, of course, just not “put the team on my back.”
Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs MIL (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 6 BBs, 1 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 97 pitches.
Oh. Oh. Is he okay? He walked a batter in four straight frames, including three in the second, and he truly had nothing working outside of sinkers and four-seamers, which didn’t always listen, either. I’m shocked he was able to go unscathed until a two-out single in the fourth. I know how amped we were after 17.2 IP in two games, but that was CrySox + Reds Carpet. It’s so disheartening to see both his cutter and changeup return exatly 33% strikes, which explains why he went just 1/20 earning a strikeout in two-strike counts (HAISTBMBWT?!). I’m going to hope for the best in Oracle Park next time out and take it from there.
Andrew Abbott (CIN) @ MIN (ND) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 97 pitches.
Abbott is having a nightmarish start to the season, and it feels cruel to have him endure 41 degree temperature when he’s trying to get back on the horse. He’ll get the Tigers next, and feel free to skip that and hope it’s a step up. The good news? He’ll likely stick on the waivers, allowing you to swoop in for Rockie Road the start after.
Erick Fedde (CHW) @ ATH (ND) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 75 pitches.
Don’t trust him. You know the deal.
Adrian Houser (SFG) @ WSN (ND) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 88 pitches.
The Nationals are LHB-heavy and it doesn’t play into Houser’s hand, even if he’s sporting a strong changeup, as the fastballs and breakers struggle. I know how it looks here, but the Marlins are more evenly spread and should be an easier time for Houser in Oracle Park. I’d stream that one in 15-teamers.
Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU) vs STL (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 91 pitches.
This was the classic McCullers experience of a ton of pitches scattered across the zone, but you can generally make out what he’s trying to do. And for what it’s worth, he executed better than the three walks look like, but it can’t be good, it needs to be great.
Brayan Bello (BOS) vs DET (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 84 pitches.
After a start like this, would you consider starting Bello against the Yankees, @ TOR, @ DET? Didn’t think so. Move on.
Drew Rasmussen (TBR) @ PIT (ND) – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 64 pitches.
Whoa, this was weird. Rasmussen couldn’t throw cutters for strikes (52% rate?!) and his four-seamer failed to support it at 50% strikes to LHB. This wasn’t consistent, though, it was in isolated moments, like the first with a walk and HR, then the fourth with…a walk and HR. Dude. If there’s ever a moment to call a start a “Glitch in the Matrix,” I think we’ve found it. You should have no worries.
Luis Severino (ATH) vs CHW (ND) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 96 pitches.
Sevy did a fantastic job against RHB, where he walked one batter on a close 3-2 four-seamer, and two doubles on inside sinkers to Everson Pereira with exit velocities under 75 mph. Seriously?! When it rains, it pours. He didn’t help things by pitching poorly to LHB and that’s your ballgame. I’m thrilled he’ll be out of Sacré Verde and in Arlington for the Rangers up next, where I’d circle him as a potential streamer.
Noah Cameron (KCR) @ NYY (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 74 pitches.
This was some of the worst Cameron command (you said that last time Nick. That was extreme weather!), and I’m surprised it was paired with 93/94 mph four-seamers. That’s pretty great to see, honestly. It came out hot at 94+ mph and stuck to 92-94 mph in the fourth. But this was a bad game. Right, the command. It was the Yankees and he’ll get LAA, Sacré Verde, and the Guardians up next. I’m totally fine ignoring him until Cleveland (the Angels are hot + Sacré Verde), though I’m not ready to count out Cameron.
Game of the Day
Cole Ragans vs. Ryan Weathers – Well hot dang, that’s one fun matchup of southpaws.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
Have Questions? – Join my morning Twitch.tv livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday through Friday.
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
