Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Saturday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Matthew Liberatore (STL) @ NYM (L) – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 100 pitches.
We gotta take a moment to talk about Matthew Liberatore, who looked stellar once again on Saturday, returning a productive line of 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 100 pitches (L). His slider is becoming ole reliable at 40% usage (making it the focus of his approach against both LHB and RHB) and a fantastic 75% strike rate, while the 95 mph four-seamer and sinker were featured well, save for some mistakes I’m still a little sad about. The cutter got involved as well and the changeup is coming along against right-handers.
This works. It’s his third straight game of 6+ strikeouts and the second of 95 mph (not 93!) with heavy embrace of the slide piece. With that velocity and improved mix, I see a stable arm who faces the Brewers + a repeat against the Mets ahead and there’s legit value to be had. You don’t have to hold on tight over more stable arms, given that I only adore the last two outings, but there is a good feeling he’s hit a new plateau. Let the Liberatoration from waiver wires begin.
Let’s see how every other SP did Saturday:
Garrett Crochet (BOS) vs CHW (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 96 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Still much lower extension this year and that is super weird. Fortunately, he has a better all-around arsenal this season and we’ll move on.
Kodai Senga (NYM) vs STL (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 89 pitches.
I love the games where Senga refuses to throw his Ghost Fork inside the zone and still earns a 65% strike rate on the pitch. I don’t generally love low cutter usage in favor of four-seamers (18% CSW on said heater across 40 thrown is dangerous), but the balls found gloves and the rare sweeper, slider, and sinker helped him return a Philly. Feel good about Senga – it’s a good foundation that he can build upon to become more strikeout-heavy in the future.
Ben Lively (CLE) @ PIT (W) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 90 pitches.
Lively worked against the Pirates, as Lively should. The man outdueled Skenes, technically. I wonder how Skenes would have done against his own offense…
Luis Severino (ATH) @ MIL (W) – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 92 pitches.
OH SNAP. We have our first legit contender for the Minimalist Score at just Six from Severino (1 ER + 3 hits + 1 K + 1 inning from the 9th). He just threw a ton of sinkers and four-seamers for strikes and the Brewers obliged. HAISTBMBWT?! Sidenote: Don’t ignore how pitchers perform better in Milwaukee than expected. 11% more strikes = 2nd most in majors across last three years. Just one strikeout here. More strikeouts = harder to hit.
Casey Mize (DET) vs KCR (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 88 pitches.
Heater is at 95 mph, 16″ of vert and a little less extension and I’m happy to see it get passed often for called strikes. This was a game of strikes with his splitter that returned a ton of outs. Just 2/22 CSW but 77% strikes and weak contact. Is he fixed? I’m still not sold and think this was Koufax being generous. Fine for 15-teamers.
Taijuan Walker (PHI) vs MIA (ND) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 56 pitches.
Apparently Walker’s shoulder got stiff in this one, causing the early exit. That would explain the 90/91 mph heater and how even when Walker does well, there needs to be something that messes it up. Please stop trying to stream Walker. I see y’all on Yahoo with those transaction trends, YOU CAN DO BETTER.
Ben Brown (CHC) vs ARI (ND) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 100 pitches.
Another low ERA and good strikeout per inning game, but just four innings and a poor WHIP. One more pitch would make this arsenal far better, and the three changeups are not it. THAT SAID, Brown has more vert on the four-seamer now – 18″ of vert! Nearly two inches more! – and if that can hold while sitting 55%+ strikes on the hook, then we might be talking. Maybe. It wasn’t enough for this one, after all.
Justin Topa (MIN) @ ATL (ND) – 1.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 24 pitches.
Oh no. Is this the first Opener we’ve had all season? I honestly got complacent and took this new reality for granted. Sigh. Simeon Woods Richardson followed for 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks and you gotta stop cashing this one, even if he was at 94 mph with 17-18″ of vert. And 9/48 whiffs on the heater. The rest of his stuff wasn’t solid and that’s a rare game for the heater command to LHB.
Paul Skenes (PIT) vs CLE (L) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 103 pitches.
Aces gonna ace against 100% LHB. Just four strikeouts as his strikeout rate falls to 25% for the season. Pretty wild, eh? The splinker returned just 2/30 whiffs here with the heater going 11% CSW as he didn’t hit the edges a lot, nor focus on pitch separation. And he still produced. That’s an ace.
Landen Roupp (SFG) @ LAA (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 96 pitches.
ROUPP THERE IT IS (I know so many of you wanted to say that). This was all curves and sinkers down with a RHB-heavy lineup, and I was hoping to get a larger peek at changeups and cutters to LHB, but let’s applaud Roupp’s Neckbeard approach to RHB that would make Brady Singer jealous. That curve is so good. It’s really a sweeper with a bit more depth, but Roupp’s low arm angle makes the curve grip turn more horizontal. ANYWAY, don’t you dare let him go.
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) vs LAD (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 90 pitches.
Even at 94 mph, Eovaldi is killing it. Splitters and curves down, cutters for strikes, and a near-even mix across all his pitches. I love this. Embrace this. Hold onto Eovaldi y’all.
Roki Sasaki (LAD) @ TEX (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 78 pitches.
He’s trying! The slider usage jumped a ton to 30% as he’s searching for a bridge pitch. The problem? It’s at 81 mph (bridge pitches are usually in-between the heater and out pitch) and returned a sub 50% strike rate. I’m happy he went upstairs a bit more with his heater, but it also came in under 95 mph. I’m still out here.
Chad Patrick (MIL) vs ATH (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 94 pitches.
TWO FIRS-Oh. A Gold Star? The cutter went 10/42 whiffs as he landed it on the outer half all game to LHB while sneaking sinkers back over the plate? That’s cool. STILL DON’T TRUST HIM.
MacKenzie Gore (WSN) @ COL (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 13 Ks – 28 Whiffs, 42% CSW, 104 pitches.
28 whiffs in Coors. Guys. GUYS. This was the greatest command I have ever seen from Gore against RHB. Seriously, absolute PERFECTION upstairs with heaters and curves + cutters down. I’m seriously blown away by this, and it’s kinda hilarious how it came inside Colorado. I sure hope he’s figured something out to be this consistent, but it’s likely just a perfect day at the park. Maybe Gore should sign in Coors. Wouldn’t that be something… Enjoy that Golden Goal, you earned it more than most.
Michael King (SDP) @ HOU (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 90 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Remember how scared y’all were after the first game? The sweeper is back baybeeee.
Hayden Wesneski (HOU) vs SDP (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 85 pitches.
I don’t love seeing over 50% four-seamers to LHB from Wes and I want a little more coming out of the arsenal than the sweeper/four-seamer combo, but we’ll take this all day.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) @ TOR (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 102 pitches.
I was so annoyed watching Gilbert allow the first run of the game on the Playback stream as he can’t get his heater upstairs enough. The splitter helped a ton as the slider held a sub 60% strike rate so don’t fret. Aces gonna ace, normally.
Chris Sale (ATL) vs MIN (ND) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 98 pitches.
Aces gonna have erratic command to RHB and barely see a LHB. The changeup let him down when he needed it most as the slider went 53% strikes. It’s too bad, he could have cruised in this one. Pretty weird to see a 6.13 ERA and 1.63 WHIP through five starts and that’s without a single 6+ ER game. Not one outing above 5 IP, nor a game under 2 ER. He’ll get back there and there has been some poor luck involved, but he doesn’t look like a Top 5 SP as many hoped.
Seth Lugo (KCR) @ DET (L) – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 105 pitches.
Oh, so Savant has added the slurve into the official pitch type language and I’m not here for it. BUT WHATEVER. It’s a two-plane curve that has always been great and he did most of what was expected. All good here.
José Berríos (TOR) vs SEA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 82 pitches.
A PQS is fine…? Outside of those leagues, you got nothing. Womp womp. Welcome to the undulation.
Kyle Hendricks (LAA) vs SFG (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 63 pitches.
Blegh. I expected to see 50% changeups again and got a sinker-focused effort, leading to a HAISTBMBWT?! I think he could have gone one more frame for the PQS, but so it goes.
Shane Smith (CHW) @ BOS (ND) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 73 pitches.
Progress! We’re seeing 96/97 on average (98 early, 95 late) for 73 pitches and the slider/change were solid offerings, save for some mistakes over the plate. Give him a few more weeks to get the leash to 90 pitches and then we’re golden. Maybe it’s good enough for the Twins and Brewers up next…we’ll see.
Brandon Young (BAL) vs CIN (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 81 pitches.
A rough first frame in a debut is no anomaly, and I generally like his command, but the stuff isn’t good enough for us to consider this. Massive two-plane curveball movement is the most interesting asset, but it needs to be spotted more consistently with a low swing chance before it becomes a viable weapon.
Carlos Carrasco (NYY) @ TBR (ND) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 16% CSW, 75 pitches.
He tried. He really did. HE CAN ONLY DO SO MUCH. Carrasco isn’t even supposed to be here.
Shane Baz (TBR) vs NYY (ND) – 3.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 83 pitches.
Ouch. The curve and four-seamer weren’t nearly as consistent as we’ve seen, which made the changeup easier for the Yankees to attack. The velocity was down as well, though I’m blaming that on the laborious day at the park given he was fiery early. We move on and still love the guy.
Hunter Greene (CIN) @ BAL (L) – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 77 pitches.
We’ve given so much praise to Greene but the Orioles jumped on his heater even while hitting 99 mph with 16″ of vert. Some days, the Orioles are gonna bamboozle pitchers who throw high heat. The slider wasn’t impeccable, either. Lower strike rate with many floating and crushed. So it goes, he’s still dope.
Zac Gallen (ARI) @ CHC (L) – 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 103 pitches.
This is getting painful. The problem here was the curveball’s strike rate plummeting to 43% and without his signature weapon (nor his changeup at 47% strikes!), Gallen’s four-seamer and slider were tasked with just surviving. It didn’t work. He’ll get Atlanta next and it’s really tough to start him at the moment. I have to believe Gallen will recover in some fashion, but I get benching him until then. You don’t have to hold, but it doesn’t quite seem right to do so yet outside 10-teamers and shallower.
Chase Dollander (COL) vs WSN (L) – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 78 pitches.
Coors is undefeated. Still a fun fastball and missing the secondaries to pull it all together. No, I don’t think the curve or cutter in their current forms are the answer. And definitely not the changeup.
Cal Quantrill (MIA) @ PHI (L) – 3.1 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 0 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 89 pitches.
Quants aren’t made to be ball players AMIRITE?! (I’m so sorry). On the real, I wish more baseball players were quants. That would be so dang cool. I’d watch that movie, too. Quantifying Success, coming this Fall.
Game of the Day
Dylan Cease vs. Framber Valdez – Who is going to frustrate me the least?
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
