Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Saturday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Jake Irvin (WSN) @ CHW (ND) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 88 pitches.
I remember Eno Sarris mentioning that Jake Irvin was one of the biggest Stuff+ improvers from last year, and I hand-waved it. It’s Irvin. But now, after he shutout the White Sox across nearly six frames, you may be remember Sarris’ note and wondering if the line of 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 88 pitches (ND) could be real.
There was a lovely stretch in 2024 when Irvin was a shocking Vargas Rule. The catalyst? And absurdly good curveball feel that I haven’t seen a whole lot since. Well, now with a little more extension (7.2 feet, not 7.0 feet), Irvin had that feel again, goin 47% CSW and a 34% SwStr on 32 curveballs against the White Sox. Many of those eleven whiffs came down to LHB, with a few four-seamers working well above them. It was cool to see him in such a groove with the pitch (it’s really a sweeper, honestly), but you can likely ignore this.
It was the CrySox. It’s a 77 mph sweeper (-1.6 vert, 16″ of sweep), and the fastballs are at 91-93 mph. It’s too risky to bank on the same curveball results across better offenses moving forward. But this was his moment! The ugly duckling turning into a swan! Why do we villify the duckling so much? They didn’t choose to look like how they do. But THE SWAN! Fine, Irvin is now a swan. Watch as he dives. Noooooo.
Let’s see how every other SP did Saturday:
Garrett Crochet (BOS) @ BAL (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 90 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. You can’t say that. YES I CAN. I kept him inside the AGA tier on The List and Crochet dominated with incessant four-seamers while reducing sinkers and cutters. Can’t say it’s the greatest cure for his prior outings, but we’re obviously starting without a thought now.
Shane McClanahan (TBR) vs MIN (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 86 pitches.
ATTA BOY. The changeup feel returned with a 76% strike rate and a whole bunch thrown (40% usage!) with just Wallner standing in the LHB box. This was the perfect start, showcasing what McShane can be at 95 mph, and we’re clearly starting him against the Giants now.
Zac Gallen (ARI) vs SDP (ND) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 49 pitches.
He left this one early after taking a comebacker to the shoulder in the third frame. He finished the inning but was pulled as a precaution, and Brandon Pfaadt stepped up to toss four frames in the elevated Mexico City environment. I’m going to take the data we got with a grain of salt all around and I’m assuming he’ll make his next start against the Cubs, which I’d easily avoid.
Cole Ragans (KCR) vs LAA (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 11 Ks – 27 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 99 pitches.
PEW PEW PEW. Nothing quells injury concerns like throwing two ticks up on your heater (96/97) and destroying the competition for a Golden Goal. That fastball was hilariously good. Not just elite – 34% SwStr rate at 54% usage. That’s eighteen whiffs on the pitch – Only Jay Mis returned more whiffs on their entire arsenal for a start on Saturday. What a stud.
Robbie Ray (SFG) vs MIA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 97 pitches.
A Dusty Donut against the Marlins is awfully disappointing. It’s the Cherry Bomb nature of Ray’s BSB where he can go too high or too low with his arsenal. So it goes, we move on.
Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs CLE (W) – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 91 pitches.
His splitter was nothing like it normally is, failing to return a single strikeout on the fourteen splitters thrown in two-strike counts. Is that normal? No, it is not. Let’s be thankful he was productive despite his inability to put batters away.
Bailey Ober (MIN) @ TBR (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 83 pitches.
You know, Ober has tallied 4 ER total in three of his last four starts. Are you suggesting–Imma stop you there. Absolutely not. Just three whiffs total and terrible strike rates with an 88 mph fastball. You’re smarter than this.
Noah Schultz (CHW) vs WSN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 8 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 85 pitches.
He didn’t get the sweeper outside enough to LHB, the changeup was thrown just twice (3% usage to RHB?! SERIOUSLY?!), and his velocity fell two ticks relative to his first two outings. The cutter also wasn’t jamming RHB nearly as well as we saw in his debut and the whole thing was…weird. Expect the Shag Rug to appear here and there this year, and even knowing that, I’m letting him fly in San Diego next + likely @LAA after, too.
Brady Singer (CIN) vs DET (W) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 94 pitches.
Was it worth it? WAS IT WORTH IT?! Why are you yelling at me?! I didn’t start Singer! Sorry, that’s on me. This was standard Singer without anything to point at and go AHA! What about the extra 1.5 inches of horizontal ride on the sinker? Okay, that’s actually pretty cool–SIKE. Is that even how you spell–That sinker returned five of his eight hits. Not a gamechanger. NEXT!
Ryan Weathers (NYY) @ HOU (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 86 pitches.
We’ll take it. I’m sad he just had to allow a lead-off HR in the sixth to lose the dub – I don’t blame him for throwing a sweeper over the changeup given the breaker’s 32% SwStr rate for the night – and we’re going to keep riding Weathers. Yes, fewer strikeouts than usual, nothing to worry about.
Zack Wheeler (PHI) @ ATL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 84 pitches.
HE’S BACK! HE’S BACK! And his four-seamer was 2025’s four-seamer. For about an inning. It sat 95/96 mph then fell to 93-95 mph for the rest of the start and came without the same four-seamer command upstairs that we’re used to. The extension and super flat HAVAA are still elite, though, and he did a wonderful job landing his sinker inside to RHB. With 84 pitches under his belt, there’s no reason not to start Wheeler moving forward against the Marlins, where I’m hoping he can hold the velocity a little longer in the game. He’s great, just not quite elite. Yet.
Mike Burrows (HOU) vs NYY (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 92 pitches.
Oh, so the start that would be mental to start Burrows is the one that actually worked out. This one had a surprise hero – a 79 mph curveball thrown 24 times after just 15% usage prior – and I’m not ready to sign on for the Orioles next, especially with the Dodgers after. If you want to stream, you do you. Feels like a Dennis more than anything.
Bryce Elder (ATL) vs PHI (ND) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BB, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 92 pitches.
The Elder tree keeps on giving. Massive props to him and his 1.95 ERA and 0.97 WHIP thus far – it’s truly incredible. Only a third of the batters he faced saw a two-strike count, meaning the Phillies were swinging freely and a 60% hard contact rate does Elder no favors, but here we are, with another decent Elder start. You know, that’s not a good ERA and it’s just two strikeouts without a Win. Huh. And now it’s Coors and the Dodgers. HUH.
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) vs PIT (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BB, 9 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 91 pitches.
A PQS but it’s not poor quality if you punch out nine batters. It sure feels like the ratios should be better with a 37% strikeout rate and sub 10% walk rate, doesn’t it? A 3.31 ERA and 1.10 WHIP are good ratios. Yeah, but they should be elite. You’re so dang close.
Mitch Keller (PIT) @ MIL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 93 pitches.
So close. I love seeing Keller feature an extra tick of velocity across the board + the cutter and curve each return a SwStr rate above 20%. He also went out for the sixth, allowed two hits, which added an extra run to his line, ruining a solid five-inning performance. Could this be the start of a stretch that actually gets me okay with Keller? Maybe?
MacKenzie Gore (TEX) vs ATH (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 106 pitches.
When I see a pitcher walk all three batters off 3-2 pitches + have a super effective set of fastballs, I’m more willing to wave off a questionable stat line. I’m starting him against the Tigers next after a 19% Swstr rate on 51% four-seamers that also carried a 72% strike rate. He should return a putaway rate well above a 16% mark moving forward, too.
Joey Cantillo (CLE) @ TOR (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BB, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 89 pitches.
So, uh, four strikeouts, eh? Aren’t you supposed to be the sugar that helps us digest the poor WHIP? Are you saying his poor walk rate is medicine? Don’t look so deep into my words. His wonky four-seamer command is still very present and I’d hold off on a start in Sacré Verde.
Trevor Rogers (BAL) vs BOS (L) – 1.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 62 pitches.
Jeeeeez that second inning was ridiculous. I know it sounds like I’m making excuses, as Rogers has not come through for a while now, but he pitched much better than the line looks. Fantastic pitch separation and the ire of Koufax as the Sawx smacked four hits, three with two outs. Now he gets the Yankees and you’re scared. That makes a whole lot of sense. I’m still going to start him and unless he’s pitching terribly, I’ll start him after against the Marlins, too. Another one of those That’s Baseball, Suzyn starts.
Jeffrey Springs (ATH) @ TEX (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 91 pitches.
Oh hey, that’s his third straight start without the great four-seamer he had early on. Guess those sunshine and rainbows weren’t meant to stick around. Don’t worry, they’ll be here every start.
Germán Márquez (SDP) @ ARI (W) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BB, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 75 pitches.
Márquez felt the high elevation, took a deep breath, and smiled. I’m home, he whispered, right before throwing a hanging 2-0 slider that left the yard for a two-run HR. I’ve missed you.
Eury Pérez (MIA) @ SFG (L) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 94 pitches.
I’m not one to believe in Home/Road splits, but you sure know Samulski texted me after this to tell me it was on the road. I’m not there yet. Sorry, Eric. Anyway, that four-seamer is still a stupid good pitch and the supporting cast just isn’t doing enough to give it the help it needs, nor does Pérez put it upstairs where it should live. Looks like I have to move him down The List again.
Roki Sasaki (LAD) vs CHC (W) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BB, 5 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 99 pitches.
It looks like Sasaki is getting some more vert on his four-seamer. And his splitter is vastly different at 91 mph instead of 85 mph. That’s a huge difference and led to the most successful splitter he’s had all season. In fact, this was the best Sasaki outing I’ve ever seen from him. And he still wasn’t good enough. True, but it included three solo shots, one on a good up-and-away four-seamer at 0-2. There’s finally a window of hope for Sasaki and I’m curious if it holds in Busch Stadium on Saturday.
Walbert Ureña (LAA) @ KCR (L) – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 81 pitches.
Womp womp. I was hoping Ureña would have the strike rates on his arsenal to dominate with the changeup, and for what it’s worth, that slowball was absurdly consistent landing low to LHB. The problem was the poor fastballs and an 86 mph sweeper he failed to do any damage with. There’s a chance he rebounds against the Mets and/or White Sox, but if he has a poor breaker and inconsistent fastballs, then I’m going to have to group him with Jose. Jose? Yeah, you know. Ohhhhh. If you start Walbert, Ureña boatload of trouble. You got it. I hope it doesn’t come to that.
Matthew Liberatore (STL) vs SEA (ND) – 3.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BB, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 64 pitches.
And now it’s the Dodgers. Move on from Liberatore. Please.
Colin Rea (CHC) @ LAD (L) – 3.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 92 pitches.
It was the Dodgers. Rea isn’t meant to be rostered for the Dodgers. I’d honestly wait until the Reds Carpet just so we can get validation against the Sneks first.
Jack Flaherty (DET) @ CIN (L) – 2.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 68 pitches.
Please stop leaning on Flaherty. He is not doing what you want him to do.
Bryan Woo (SEA) @ STL (ND) – 3.0 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 53 pitches.
Four home runs? Four?! Nothing was off here. Velocity was up, and I’m still in shock about this. Throw in a HAISTBMBWT?! and this was such an outlier. But just like Skenes and Crochet (and surely others soon enough), this shouldn’t change anything. Just my success. You’ll live.
Game of the Day
Chris Sale vs. Aaron Nola – I love watching these old(er) fellas.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
