Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Friday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Joe Boyle (TBR) @ MIN (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 104 pitches.
My favorite part of the opening weeks are the surprises. After six months of incessant studying, scouring through sheets and videos, debates, analysis, and spilling all the ink, some pitchers are just different. Joe Boyle appears to be one of those arms, walking none in his first start and now returning a solid line of 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 104 pitches against the Twins, earning a lovely Gallows Pole. Those changes aren’t a complete eradication of his former issues (the four-seamer that returned so many strikes last start returned a 47% clip here, but to its credit was much more competitive than in the past), but rather a drop in both arm angle and velocity to allow himself to be more around the zone than before. He’s embraced a sinker for RHB that he gets inside regularly (whoa!) at 34% usage and a 36% CSW, he’s able to consistently feature his above-average 88 mph gyro + sweep slider for strikes, and the splitter is a tough pitch for LHB to handle at 92/93 mph, that seems to be more in line with the Skenes Splinker than a traditional splitty. I see a pitcher who will still have some volatility rooted in that splitter and fastball to LHB, but has shed the pure chaos of old.
However, there is a problem. Boyle is only here because Ryan Pepiot suddenly hit the IL with hip inflammation. We didn’t know the extent of the injury initially, but now we know Pepiot is set to return on Monday, which leaves Boyle’s role in question. Does this become a six-man rotation? Does he get sent to the minors to stay stretched out? Does he stick to piggyback? Or maybe Martinez’s issues return on Sunday and the Rays make the swap (unlikely)?
I’ll make it easy for you. Let’s say Boyle sticks either as a replacement for Martinez or as part of a six-man rotation – the latter of which looks like the most logical choice given the innings questions of the whole staff, assuming they want Boyle to stick. His next start would be against the Yankees. That’s not fun. No, it is not. Sure, the schedule after is sparkling, but if we’re benching there, is it really worthwhile? Feel free to hold until we know more, but know yourself as a manager. If you’re not starting against the Yankees, then it’s likely best to move on.
Let’s see how every other SP did Friday:
Bryan Woo (SEA) @ LAA (ND) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 87 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. He’s trusting the sweeper more and it returned 68% strikes with 4/4 outs in play. It’s all coming together.
Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) vs ATL (ND) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 90 pitches.
The madman did it again! He’s getting nearly 2″ more vert on the heater, but the real winner was the spectacular changeup down-and-away to RHB that routinely ended at-bats and generated whiffs, a 65% strike rate, and nine outs. He’s locked into Toby town and he’s a perfect example of a SWATCH who needs to be in rhythm and not more velocity. Soooo, start against the Mets? Up to you. QS leagues may want to test the waters. 12-teamers in general, I’d just consider him a decent streamer when the matchups align.
Reid Detmers (LAA) vs SEA (ND) – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 104 pitches.
He takes down LHB pretty easily with the four-seamer and slider (and a few sinkers inside!), the real question is RHB, where he whipped out a new changeup at 90 mph that I kinda love when he spots it, which was, what, once? Twice? Everything was missing up-and-armside against RHB outside of the slider (and even some of those), which is great for the heater but terrible for the slowball and curve, and the question remains: Does Detmers have enough to make this work across a season? He’ll have a gauntlet now hosting Atlanta, heading to the Bronx, then facing the Padres. I’m fine with a spec add if you want, I’m still skeptical.
Grant Holmes (ATL) @ ARI (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 85 pitches.
You see this line and you know exactly what he did. Four-seamers and sliders aplenty with the slidepiece doing a wonderful job of staying down like an overly dramatic action star when they hear a balloon pop. That heater did its fair share of work sitting upstairs for 5/35 whiffs on its own and keeping flyballs in the yard, and yet, you can see the struggle to putaway batters with this simple approach with 14 whiffs but just four strikeouts. But a King Cole is worth something, right? It is, definitely. And despite the tone of this blurb, I see the Angels, Marlins, and Nationals up next, and I’m cool with that. Alright, REB, you may have sold me on buying you a home on the roster. After all, your slider was up to 86/87 mph (not down to 84 mph) with 2-3″ extra vert. That’s a beautiful exchange. Please stick.
Framber Valdez (DET) vs STL (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 91 pitches.
Yep, that’s Framber. He has his curveball cooking (with less sweep, but that’s fine) and you remember the rule. If it hooks, he cooks.
Cade Horton (CHC) @ CLE (ND) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 17 pitches.
He left the game early with a trainer due to an elbow injury. He’s getting imaging and we’ll know more then, but he is 100% heading to the IL. Sahadev Sharma reported that “it started in his wrist, then got tight in his forearm, so he wanted to be proactive and not push it.” Take that as you will. Ben Brown is likely getting starts in his place and I’m not interested in breaking the Huascar Rule.
Aaron Nola (PHI) @ COL (W) – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 95 pitches.
LIVE. EVERY. DAY. LIKE. IT’S. NOLA. DAY. Man, I was worried about this with Coors being Coors, but then again, it supports my theory that Colorado hitters hate Coors initially, since it’s the first time they see the ball moving differently. That said, this was Nola at his peak, with cutters embraced for 23% usage to RHB (not 8% like last year) and it destroyed for 78% strikes and 2/9 whiffs. The curve was on point, obviously, and we even had his sinker inside, not outside (down, but that’s fine). I love this.
Sean Burke (CHW) vs TOR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 85 pitches.
He was opened for by Grant Taylor and went on to dominate the Jays, losing the dub once he was relieved. Life isn’t fair. This wasn’t luck, either. Burke found his velocity (95/96, not 94+!) and an extra inch of vert to 19″, while he spotted his arsenal beautifully. Better than any start of his I can remember. Four-seamers were painted upstairs for 80% strikes and 9/25 whiffs, changeups were BSB to LHB down, the sinker sat on the inner third, and sliders on the outer third. Curveballs…could be a little better, and now I’m getting greedy. If Burke does this every time out, he will be a legit arm. Huge IF, though. Is it worth it to take a chance against the Orioles? I’m leaning away from that (one start is an exception, two a suggestion, three a confirmation, after all), but who knows. Maybe it’s real.
Jeffrey Springs (ATH) vs HOU (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 103 pitches.
Oh wow. Springs really is looking all sunshine and rainbows this year. The four-seamer held its gains from his first start, with two inches extra vert and ride once again, while he kept it upstairs and sat the changeup down. He faced all RHB save for Alvarez (who flew out twice, including a sac fly for Springs’ sole ER), which certainly plays into his SWATCH approach and eliminates his biggest weakness: Suspect breaking balls. We’re not at the point of adding him given @NYY up next, and I still don’t love starting him in Sacré Verde, though this is clearly a pitcher who can be productive in 12-teamers.
Joey Cantillo (CLE) vs CHC (ND) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 82 pitches.
Cantillo did well to avoid the heart of the plate with most of his pitches, and the changeup returned 6/23 whiffs as you’d expect. There’s a whole lot of “effectively wild” in here with his breaking pitches and that’ll continue to worry me, though the four-seamer does seem to be more effective than I had been giving it credit, even at 91/92 mph. With his schedule against the Royals, @STL, and Orioles next, yeah, you’re starting him. Here’s to hoping the control doesn’t wane.
Nolan McLean (NYM) @ SFG (W) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 93 pitches.
This was a frustrating game to watch, with McLean missing a ton, then executing well on his following pitch. His pitches move so much with strong velocity that he’s able to undergo his development stages and still have success. That’s pretty dang cool. And it was in Oracle Park. Okay, that too. The new cutter held a 21% SwStr across nineteen thrown, by the way. That’s hot.
Sonny Gray (BOS) vs SDP (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 87 pitches.
What a Sonny delight. He had his cutter working and threw 34% of them to RHB, while the sweeper had its moments and he refused to give in against LHB. That’s the man we know. But just three strikeouts? He did well, don’t push it.
Mitch Keller (PIT) vs BAL (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 88 pitches.
Welp. I take back everything I said last time. All of that extra movement, the vert, the ride, the better fastballs…nope. It’s deadzone city. Throw in the sweeper returning just 54% strikes as his most thrown offering (27% usage) and he has his new changeup to thank for surviving this Dusty Donut. New changeup? Yeah, he featured it more than any other pitch to LHB at 33% usage, despite just 7% to LHB last year, and it has a little extra dip with less fade. So not really new, but more newly trusted? That’s way more accurate. I dig the feel he had for it here, and maybe it was just one of the days of “Welp, this is the only pitch I trust, so let’s give it a whirl.” Far too early to trust this slowball and suddenly, I realize how much I’m rambling about Keller. Yees, this is a whole lot of words for me to end with “I don’t like Keller, sorry about last week.” My apologies.
Will Warren (NYY) vs MIA (W) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 77 pitches.
There’s really no reason to expect Warren to change at this point. It’s the same sinker/four-seamer approach to RHB with the rare sweeper, and an extra sprinkle of changeups to LHB. I still wish he did more, and yet it’s working so fine. I’m cautious against proper offenses like the Athletics on Wednesday, yet if you have him, I know you can’t resist the Win chance.
Brady Singer (CIN) @ TEX (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 87 pitches.
Is that good enough to roll with Singer in Miami next week and the Giants the following Tuesday? Ehhhhh, probably. Especially in deeper formats.
Dylan Cease (TOR) @ CHW (ND) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 93 pitches.
The new changeup! The sinker tweaks! The curveball is different! IT’S THE SAME CEASE. He still can’t command everything. Oh. So this is why you moved him up just one spot on the List. Yuuuuup. One start doth not make a pitcher. Please don’t say that ever again. Noted. You’re going to get the strikeouts and those fantastic moments, don’t you worry (there’s even another Gallows Pole here!), but temper your expectations.
MacKenzie Gore (TEX) vs CIN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 88 pitches.
The Reds served a purely RHB lineup, which means I don’t get to have my fun seeing if the sinker is still around for LHB. WHATEVER. What we did get was a PQS with a gorgeous 1.00 WHIP and nine strikeouts, rooted in a legit BSB approach that I’ve dreamed of Gore executing for the last few years. The only problem? Two HRs on a pair of mistakes – a cutter to Steer that didn’t get inside enough, and a 1-0 heater down the pipe at 94.6 to Elly. That’s it. Yeah, he’s really dope.
Michael McGreevy (STL) @ DET (L) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 75 pitches.
Blegh. The velocity is really down (2-3+ ticks on everything) and Koufax wasn’t so kind. I’d wait until we see the velocity return before considering him again. This line is a perfect showcase of why it’s important to know the pitches themselves and not the results when assessing an arm – we saw the dipped velocity last time out. Come, join me on the PLV side…
Bailey Ober (MIN) vs TBR (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 82 pitches.
He’s at 88.6 mph. These eggs are fried, not Ober easy.
Michael King (SDP) @ BOS (L) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 81 pitches.
Blegh. A terrible sinker down the pipe to Contreras resulted in a two-run blast in the sixth (Careful, Icarus), and despite a few other bad pitches, I actually think King pitched pretty well, with Koufax treating him unfairly. Keep starting him, of course.
Emmet Sheehan (LAD) @ WSN (W) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 98 pitches.
Okay, this is a tough one. Sheehan’s velocity is down at 94 pmph, not the flirtation with 96 mph we saw last year. However, what I saw last time and in spring was Sheehan at 96 mph, then dip to 91/92 mph by the end, averaging the same 94 mph as we saw here. In this start, he actually held 94 mph throughout the game, then sat 95+ mph in the sixth. I cannot tell you my assessment is correct (I’m very often wrong, of course!), but I will tell you the narrative I see. Sheehan was ill at the start of camp, and still has the ability to sit 96 mph, but his stamina is drained. He’s not fully built up yet and has been easing up in the latter frames before this start. Here, Sheehan tested what he actually had in the tank. Sure, he was 94/95 mph in the first, then pulled back to 93 mph and had a pair of pitches around 92 mph around pitch 50, but when he got to pitch 60/70, he started to see how much he had left, and pushed to 95+ twice by the mid-80s. He’s not hurt, he’s just figuring it out and regaining strength. As for everything else about Sheehan, everything moves the same and he located everything well to LHB, but couldn’t find the slider feel to RHB. The poor line is mostly a result of a two-out three-run shot by Abrams in the first, off a good up-and-away heater at 94 mph that usually gets strike three. Right, the lower velocity hurts him. Yeah, it’s true. If there is a clear productive pitcher on the wire, go for it. The Dodgers are going to keep Sheehan around, though, and by May 1st, you’re going to be upset Sheehan is off your team, if not earlier. I’m holding.
Eury Pérez (MIA) @ NYY (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 Hits, 6 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 84 pitches.
The Yankees are no fun, especially when they send LHB to the plate and four-seamers are the only pitch you can throw above 55% strikes. Yeeeesh. Eury is still developing, after all. His stuff is absurd and he’s assuredly going to be productive this year, but the Cy Young potential arm is still in the works. The good news? He’ll get pampered with the Reds Carpet on Wednesday. That’ll lift his spirits.
Kyle Bradish (BAL) @ PIT (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 81 pitches.
This was a terrible second frame with two poor pitch choices for damage + two balls finding massive holes in the infield as he got a bit Singled Out (I don’t know why he threw that curve to Griffin…). The slider and curve are still elite, if not moreso, and I’m buying low everywhere. But the velocity dipped again. It did, and like Sheehan, I think he’s simply building the stamina. Don’t worry, you’ll forget about this as his fantastic schedule continues for a while.
Tyler Mahle (SFG) vs NYM (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 91 pitches.
Mahle is at 92 mph and I’m very interested once he faces easier lineups. He will, just not until the end of April. Give it time.
Cristian Javier (HOU) @ ATH (L) – 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 5 BBs, 2 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 82 pitches.
Wait, a guy who fights his command did poorly in a place that makes pitchers fight with their command?! There was a silver lining here: Javier is back to 93 mph on this four-seamer, not the sub 92 mph we’d seen throughout the spring. Small steps…?
Michael Lorenzen (COL) vs PHI (L) – 3.0 IP, 9 ER, 12 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 77 pitches.
I gotta say, I put Lorenzen and Mikolas as the two worst starts and despite how obvious that is, it rarely actually ends that way.
Miles Mikolas (WSN) vs LAD (L) – 4.1 IP, 11 ER, 11 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 87 pitches.
Some things never change, Morpheus. And other things do. I really hate that line. And this line, obviously, but that Matrix quote lives in my head rent-free. Fortunately, Mikolas’ performances do not.
Game of the Day
Brandon Sproat vs. Seth Lugo – Look, I just want to watch Sproat be Sproat. YOU GOT THIS.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
