Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup: Proof Reid

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Saturday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET. 

Reid Detmers (LAA) vs BOS (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 12 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 94 pitches.

It makes me so happy to see Reid Detmers soaring in his third season, even if I was completely out on him entering the season. Detmers displayed a new heater in his first outing and many took a chance on Detmers Saturday even with the Red Sox in town and were rewarded with brilliance: 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 12 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 94 pitches. That’s a Gallows Pole and a Win and hot dang, things look wonderful for Detmers.

The biggest change this season is his four-seamer. The pitch has gained nearly three inches of iVB, turning it into a pitch that can earn whiffs upstairs, missing above bats as hitters expect it to fall further down into the zone. I had my concerns about his slider’s consistency and his other supporting cast members and while some of that is still present (3/18 slider whiffs, for example), the curve was brilliant at 12/14 strikes, while the changeup he introduced in the second half of last season helped with 4/13 whiffs of its own, especially in the third time through the lineup.

I dig this. Detmers’ fastball command was solid last year, but it was too hittable with its former shape. With the new movement, he’s turning those barrels into whiffs, requiring only strikes (not massive whiff totals!) to produce on a given night. I am a little worried that the Angels new coaching staff (i.e. after firing the guys who actually helped him last year) aren’t the greatest crew to save Detmers when adversity is sure to hit this year, though who knows at this point. Right now, Detmers is cruising and deservedly so. I’m so happy.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Saturday:

 

Bryce Miller (SEA) @ MIL (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 78 pitches.

Whoa, 20 splitters and 20 sinkers! Those sinkers not meticulously spotted in the slightest, but he earned strikes with them and it opened up four-seamers upstairs + splitters generally around for a whopping 70% strike rate. We’ll take that all day and all I can do is hope either A) He can earn these strikes consistently and B) That sinker is still hard to hit (just 1/30 sinkers have returned good hitter contact).

Michael Wacha (KC) vs CWS (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 93 pitches.

Wacha, you beautiful man. Thank you for being the poster child of a Toby who takes full advantage of the starts they should. With the Mets the way they are now, we’re going to keep this one rolling for another.

Michael King (SD) @ SF (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 94 pitches.

See? He’s fine. Honestly weird to see 0/22 whiffs on the sweeper, but 7/20 on the changeup is a welcome sight while 34% CSW makes us all happy campers. He’s destined for many games of six frames or more given his sinker command that generates outs and he’s a lovely Quality Start arm. For those who jumped ship on Michael after his first game, y’all should have listened to Omar. If you come at the King, you better not miss.

Bailey Falter (PIT) vs BAL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 78 pitches.

I think I’m going to change the “MS Score” to just six frames given the state of today’s game as Falter earned a ridiculous THREE in this one, securing a HAISTBMBWT?! with a game of “hit my heater, I dare you”. At about 80% usage and a full lean into his comp of Bailey Ober, I’m still banking on him becoming a Tampa Bay Ray in due time. Wait, isn’t he supposed to be kicked out for Skenes in like a week or two? Don’t worry, Falter won’t let this last.

Paul Blackburn (OAK) @ DET (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 85 pitches.

Atta boy Blackburn. Yes, Blame it on the Tigers, especially with Blackburn about two ticks down on everything, but Paulie Punchouts has truly embraced the role of kitchen sink crafty righty with only 25% fastballs. And guess what? He gets the Nationals next. Enjoy this run while you can.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) @ CHC (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 80 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. This was an interesting one with a ton of curves and four-seamers comfortably in the zone and the Cubs not knowing what to do with it. I still can’t believe he’s 2nd percentile in hiLoc% and 98th in HAVAA, which just doesn’t compute. But hey, 40%+ CSW on the heater and obvious success, so what do I know? Maybe having a flat angle and having 90th percentile y-mLoc is enough? That could be it, though he could be better.

Steven Matz (STL) vs MIA (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 85 pitches.

Matz is pitching well, y’all. The BSB is alive and well with sinkers upstairs and I can see him being a Toby this year if he keeps this pitch separation alive. I’m not sure the Sneks are the team to chase for next start, though. Keep Matz at the front door for now.

Garrett Whitlock (BOS) @ LAA (ND) – 4.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 101 pitches.

He wasn’t efficient in the slightest and the Sawx bullpen spared him in the fifth to keep the goose egg alive. We’re seen better Whitlock, but the extension is still very much here and that’s what matters most. Stick with him.

Jon Gray (TEX) vs HOU (ND) – 3.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 84 pitches.

This looks like an injured man until you see 84 pitches. That’s no moon, that’s an inefficient pitcher. I wonder if his elite 7.0 extension and decently flat arm angle are enough to make that heater complement the slider if he places it upstairs regularly. As you can see with that pitch count, he’s not quite doing it at the moment.

Ryan Feltner (COL) vs TB (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 92 pitches.

COL sto—whoa whoa whoa. Feltner’s slider, the pitch that was terrible at earning whiffs last year – is suddenly doing the opposite. 7/42 here while his heater packed on another seven of its own. What’s stranger is his four-seamer shape was demonstrably worse and yet his locations upstairs consistently allowed it earn a 39% CSW at 94/95 mph. Are the Rays really that bad of an offense right now? Honestly, that may be it. Let’s ignore Feltner in all but the deepest of leagues.

Luis Severino (NYM) @ CIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 99 pitches.

The command of Sevy’s four-seamer was legit. Barely over the middle + landing the gloveside edge or going upstairs, equating to 12/52 whiffs, even with lower iVB than we want. I really wish I could believe more in that pitch’s precision moving forward + none of his secondaries impressed me in the slightest. That fastball, even with its high whiff total here, shouldn’t be treated like an elite pitch. I really wish it was though…

Carlos Carrasco (CLE) @ MIN (ND) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 78 pitches.

78 pitches for just nine outs?! Suitman whispers in my ear Ohhhh, he’s down to 89.5 mph on the heater now. Oh dear. The Guardians are going to rely on him heavily this season with Bieber on the shelf and I question how long this will last. At the very least, the Yankees are a squad you shouldn’t trust Carrasco against.

Ranger Suárez (PHI) @ WSH (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 82 pitches.

It’s a lovely feeling when things work exactly as they should. Suárez was a Win play here, we cashed in, and you may want to tempt fate with the Pirates + Rockie Road up next. Sadly, he has to head to Cincy after that, making this not a hold for the long haul.

Trevor Rogers (MIA) @ STL (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 90 pitches.

Ehhhh, I’m not quite sold yet on Rogers. I wanted to be in by now and was encouraged that we’d see one of those starts by now. Now with Atlanta next, we’re likely a few weeks out. Some of you may be acting like The Gambler with Mr. Rogers and while that could pay off, you should also know when to fold them.

Jordan Wicks (CHC) vs LAD (L) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 100 pitches.

Yooooo, that four-seamers has a 20% SwStr rate in two games lol. Nick, be more professional. I’M BURNING THE WICKS AT BOTH ENDS. I’m all for grabbing Wicks in the short term against the Mariners up next, though this may not last for a while, especially if his changeup is featured just nine times in a game. That ain’t it, Jordan. That’s your best pitch and you gotta let that fella sing its glorious melody. Stream him there and see how it plays out.

Clarke Schmidt (NYY) vs TOR (ND) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 91 pitches.

We’re still figuring this one out. Schmidt is focusing on more cutters – that’s good! – but his command of them isn’t there yet – that’s bad! Give him some time here. I think he’ll get the feel down at some point, allowing him to be the three-pitch mix of sinkers, sweepers, and cutters we’re looking for. What about the knucklecurve? Sure, flip some of those in there too, have a ball. Not a strike? YOU GET MY POINT.

Chris Flexen (CWS) @ KC (L) – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 77 pitches.

This is a good day for Flexen. Let that sink in.

Joe Ryan (MIN) vs CLE (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 90 pitches.

Not the best showcase of Ryan in this PQS with his fastball finding too much of the zone, but whatever, Ryan is still reliable and we keep locking him into lineups.

Kenta Maeda (DET) vs OAK (L) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 87 pitches.

Blegh. He served up a Philly with just three strikeouts, but at least that WHIP was intact. Just 1/19 slider whiffs + 4/32 on the splitty is not the world we want for Maeda, especially against the Athletics, even if I applaud him for generally keeping said split-finger under the zone. Some days, the fish look at the bait and think But I asked for caviar. And yes, I know how messed up that is. ANYWAY, Maeda isn’t at his best at the moment, though it’s not that far away from peak Maeda and it wouldn’t be wise to rule out success against the Twins next time out. You don’t need to chase this Cherry Bomb, though.

J.P. France (HOU) @ TEX (L) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 88 pitches.

One out away from a VVPQS, but instead it’s a Philly as you got very little from this outing. He’s doing the right thing by limiting his four-seamer usage (just 19%!) and if he does that against a team unlike the mighty Rangers squad, he’d likely leave with a Win. The Royals are next and you may get what you seek there. Questionable Start material for those in need of a Win.

DL Hall (MIL) vs SEA (L) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 90 pitches.

Blegh. It’s the same steeper attack angle on the fastball that we saw last game while both his changeup and curve were unreliable. We’re talking about a 50% strike rate on both across 36 pitches. We need better and I’m still beating the drum of moving on from Hall if there’s value to grab on the wire now. Do I think Hall is going to be like this all year? Probably not – he’ll find his rhythm eventually. That doesn’t mean you should be turning down other opportunities in hope of that breakout.

Tyler Wells (BAL) @ PIT (ND) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 87 pitches.

Blegh. We wanted a cheap pair of Wins for Wells in the opening week and we got…none. That’s not to say he’s destined to underwhelm incessantly and the Brewers up next could reverse the trend. He’s a Toby and those chasing his luscious ratios from last season should inspect the bucket of this Wells. It’s got a big hole in it. That’s the top, ya dingus.

Keaton Winn (SF) vs SD (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 80 pitches.

The splitty is too hittable and the Padres worked Winn into three walks despite a whole lot of strikes. I’m not the biggest fan of Winn, though if I’m starting to believe that the Rays are an offense to stream against, maybe he’s worthwhile this week in deep leagues. 12-teamers, you can easily pass. 15-teamers? I’d still pass.

Jake Irvin (WSH) vs PHI (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 93 pitches.

Honestly, not as rough as I expected from Irvin. Still not a guy you want to chase at all, but props even with the 6.00 ERA.

Tyler Alexander (TB) @ COL (ND) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 93 pitches.

Coors is undefeated. And it’s T-Lex. So we move on.

Brandon Pfaadt (AZ) @ ATL (ND) – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 87 pitches.

Well yeah, it’s Atlanta. I have to give him props for his sweeper’s 10 whiffs + he actually elevated his four-seamer…and had a steep HAVAA. In other words, elevating may not even be the best thing for Pfaadt anymore? I dunno, it’s all weird to me with Pfaadt and I’m fine starting him given the team context and Cards next, it just all seems…weird. He breaks the Huascar Rule, even if that heater returned a 42% CSW against Atlanta. Wait, really? Yeah. Okay maybe I’m underrating that heater. Nah. It’s the children who are wrong.

Nick Martinez (CIN) vs NYM (ND) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 92 pitches.

I’m glad to see Martinez fall down to under 40% fastball usage, though his cutter and changeup need to be far better in the future. He didn’t nail the edges with neither pitch frequently and one of the cutters that did turned into an RBI double down the line off the bat of Nimmo. That’s baseball, Suzyn. I’m glad he’s getting the shot these days and I’m looking forward to a possible Vargas Rule in the summer.

Kevin Gausman (TOR) @ NYY (L) – 1.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 51 pitches.

Ummmmm, Gasuman struggled heavily with his command and his velocity was SUPER down in the first inning. It rebounded in the second, but hot dang is this one of the more terrifying starts I’ve seen from Gausman across the last three seasons. The fact he rebounded at all in that second frame should be a bit relieving and throw in getting worked for 51 pitches in just four outs after coming off shoulder inflammation makes a lot of sense, though I have to mention that the velo dip arrived again in his final pitches. We wait for more info, but this ain’t great.

Max Fried (ATL) vs AZ (ND) – 4.1 IP, 7 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 97 pitches.

Uggggggh. The good news: Fried was known as a guy who struggles in April before last season and we’ve seen him rebound in a massive way in both seasons. The bad news: Ummm, that line? And his fastball velocity fluctuated a bit more than we like, dipping as low as 90 mph. Is this the forearm strain of last appearing flaring up again? Or is this just early season shenanigans? At the very least, his command is not what it should be and all we can do right now is hold and hope for the best. I wish I had more for you.

 

Game of the Day 

Gavin Stone vs. Shota Imanaga – Can Imanaga survive the Dodgers? Does Stone have more than his changeup?

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

Have Questions? – Join my morning Playback.tv livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday through Friday.

Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)