Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Monday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Brandon Williamson (CIN) @ MIA (W) – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 93 pitches.
It is so difficult to start a fringe arm in his second start after a horrendous result in the first. It just doesn’t feel right – why risk this terrible floor for a low ceiling? – and yet, if you stuck with Brandon Williamson and started him against the Marlins, you were greatly rewarded: 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 93 pitches (W). Now, what do we do with this?
You hold. He’ll get the Angels + Twins next and Williamson is a prototypical SWATCH. He faced mostly RHB and held a near 70% strike rate on changeups with a 35% SwStr rate across the 26 he threw, dotting the outside corner (so good) while going inside with heaters and cutters. It’s the gameplan you want to see from a 93 mph southpaw and I see Williamson as a Toby who could execute this plan against mid teams often. I’m not sure about his LHB approach – the sweeper was varied in its movement and location in the few chances he had – but the Angels are mostly RHB, and I imagine he’ll get the same against the Twins. We’ll see if he sticks once Nick Lodolo returns, and don’t worry about that now. This is cheap value now and that’s cool.
Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:
Brandon Young (BAL) @ CHW (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 66 pitches.
Eflin is out until next week and after Cade Povich stepped up to relieve Bassitt on Sunday, Young was called upon for the spot start. He located high heaters at 18″ of vert (with a high arm angle) and figured out the rest with splitters, sinkers, sliders, and curves, with nothing that got me excited. Thank you, Chicago.
Germán Márquez (SDP) @ PIT (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 92 pitches.
Whoa whoa whoa, this isn’t actually going to be a thing, is it? That “curve” is a gyro slider, through and through at 86 mph. His four-seamer and sinker are pretty dang meh at 83/84 mph and 15/12 movement (and reversed for sinker). His fastball command is also highly suspect. And then there’s the fact he holds the lowest extension I’ve seen, at 5.2 feet on his breaker. Excuse me. Yeah, 2.5 feet less extension than Misiorowski. And yet, he’ll get a revenge game hosting Rockie Road on Saturday. That’s a little tempting, isn’t it? I can’t. I CAN’T.
José Soriano (LAA) vs ATL (W) – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 97 pitches.
OH MYYYYY. I’m really looking dumb for my preseason Soriano take, yeeeeesh. This was fantastic on so many levels: He threw all five of his pitches at least 11 times with a 67%+ strike rate on all of them, his sinker continues to return more sink and ride, the curve is now at 86+ mph and is the CSW darling of old (42%!), and he did this against mostly LHB. Not RHB, where the curve and sinker truly excel. Man. This was so good. Isn’t it nice when Soriano has some of the good graces of Koufax among a high CSW? In fact, his only run was a first-inning solo shot to Baldwin (that dude is mashing), and it was pure domination after. Yes, you keep starting him until the wheels fall off. No, I can’t raise him too high – his history of high WHIP/walk totals is not overwritten by this game – but yeah, let’s see how long this lasts.
Michael Wacha (KCR) @ CLE (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 102 pitches.
Ayyyy, we take those. The changeup wasn’t as dominant as I expected, but, once again, Wacha had help from the rest of his arsenal. Now it’s the White Sox and that’s a clear stream. Get off the boat for the Yankees after, of course.
Justin Wrobleski (LAD) @ TOR (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 78 pitches.
As much as I want to celebrate, this wasn’t the Wrobo Cop I wanted to enforce my authority. Just a 50% strike rate and 5/69 whiffs on fastballs + sliders ain’t it. Where’s the wide pitch-mix, 96+ mph arm from last year? NYM, @COL, CHC are next, and I’m out for now.
Zack Littell (WSN) vs STL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 70 pitches.
I wanted to see more before committing a Cardinal Sin and it’s a bit of a Dusty Donut given the seven baserunners. He’s still a tick down with worse slider movement and the splitter has some moments but is generally meh, with a 56% strike four-seamer. I’m not interested.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) vs SEA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 78 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. He endured a 12-pitch at-bat to Raleigh that ended with a solo shot in the first on a heater down the pipe (it happens, twelve pitches!), and he otherwise went 5.0 frames on 66 pitches. The bad news? He left early with knee discomfort, which he apparently felt before the start. I really hope this isn’t a thing.
Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs KCR (ND) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 87 pitches.
The vert is generally here to stay, but will average around 16″+, not 18″. He had many of the latter, but a good number of last year’s iteration in the mix, bringing down the mark, and even on those stellar heaters, the end result was 0/27 whiffs on fastballs. Wait. No. Yeah. Not fun…except that it returned 41% called strikes. WELL WHY DIDN’T YOU USE CSW? I dunno, I forgot. YOU INVENTED CSW. It happens, alright?! Jeeez. The cutter was deadly when thrown (5/15 whiffs), even that pitch, along with the change and sinker, featured the standard Bibee chaos and it puts me in an awkward position. I guess we keep rolling with it, but I’m not seeing him, you know?
Janson Junk (MIA) vs CIN (L) – 7.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 87 pitches.
I was vocal in making Junk a must-add for your teams and I still stand by that, with 19″ vert, a 1.6 HAVAA and 95 mph heaters, paired with a stupid good changeup and a slider with good sweep. The overall velocity marks are a bit off due to his sixth, seventh, and eighth innings (especially the eighth), where he fell massively to 91/92 mph on the heater and 83/84 mph on the slider (87 mph slide pieces earlier). Still, I am worried about one aspect: 0/24 four-seamer whiffs. It profiles out as a killer heater upstairs and even though he wasn’t stellar at locating up, it should have earned a few whiffs here and there. In addition, his slider and sweeper command was far from pristine, even if their evening stroll over the plate returned 10/11 outs in play. Against better teams, Junk has to command a touch better to be effective, but it’s @DET, MIL, STL up next. That’s fine with me, and hopefully his stamina will be improved by the time he faces a proper challenge (sorry, Milwaukee).
Erick Fedde (CHW) vs BAL (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 86 pitches.
I don’t trust the Feddes. I know this worked – Baltimore is going through something, alright? – and props to him for locating the sweeper well to RHB while finding 74% strikes on the cutter at 90 mph. This is still a Birthday Party, don’t get it twisted.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) @ TEX (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 96 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. I’m a little shocked Gilbert isn’t leaning on his cutter more often (9/10 strikes, 40% CSW), but he’s feeling it out. Otherwise, the real issue is the slider not getting down as it should. Do that, please.
Andre Pallante (STL) @ WSN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 88 pitches.
The four-seamer allowed only two singles despite 5/6 balls in play being hard contact, and look at this! A new splitter for LHB! For 1/9 whiffs! That’s not good. No, it isn’t. Four walks and two strikeouts is really all I needed to say about this one, wasn’t it? Yuuuup.
Joe Ryan (MIN) vs DET (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 101 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. The velocity is still down at 92+ mph, but it was freezing in Minnesota. You can’t keep using that excuse. Yes, I can. It messes guys up. Just look at Mize, who was down two ticks. Okay, fair.
Cody Bolton (HOU) @ COL (ND) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 63 pitches.
This was Coors, which is all kinds of annoying for a guy I don’t know well, as I can’t trust the movement data, but what I saw was a cutter + four-seamer with some random changeups, breakers, and some sinkers to RHB. This isn’t a guy I’m interested in.
Shane McClanahan (TBR) vs CHC (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 69 pitches.
The changeup is still filthy, but 42% strikes cannot happen when McShane is throwing sub-95 mph and returning a 9% SwStr and 52% strike rate on the slide piece. He’s better than this and the schedule is just so good (@CHW, @PIT, MIN).
Max Scherzer (TOR) vs LAD (L) – 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 36 pitches.
He’s dealing with forearm tendonitis and while they aren’t worried about it, it’s possible he’s shortened or even skipped for the Twins on Saturday. Boy, would I hate that.
Jameson Taillon (CHC) @ TBR (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 83 pitches.
A PQS is what you want from Taillon and the Trop helped him flirt with 20″ of vert. Now he’ll get Pittsburgh on Sunday and that’s a decent stream.
Brandon Woodruff (MIL) @ BOS (ND) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 94 pitches.
Blegh. An out away from a PQS, though be happy he retired five straight to go as long as he could at his pitch count following two strenuous frames. He’s two ticks down from last year now, and I’m honestly surprised they let him go as long as they did. At any rate, it’s a glorious WSN, @MIA, PIT schedule ahead and we move on.
Bubba Chandler (PIT) vs SDP (L) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 83 pitches.
More walks?! This is so weird. At least he’s throwing 30%+ sliders and changeups this time, but this is just…odd. I wonder if he’s still overthrowing a touch to prove he belongs, with many soaring too high out of the zone. I wouldn’t worry about this at all – his stuff is simply unreal and he has a history of low walk rates – but I feel for y’all who are anxious. Buy low everywhere.
Brayan Bello (BOS) vs MIL (ND) – 3.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 86 pitches.
Wow. Once again, Bello has a huge whiff night (Gallows Pole!) and it fails to return success. It’s so strange. His velocity is still down (it’s cold) and I’m happy the cutter and changeup can each return over 40% whiffs, but in reality, the real problem was the big inning – a single, walk, bunt, walk, error for a run, relieved, everyone scores. I’m down for the Cardinals in St. Louis up next.
Adrian Houser (SFG) vs PHI (ND) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 89 pitches.
This wasn’t the start to stream Houser, who was so close to a VVVPQS, the first of the year. In fact, he had 2 ER in six, but allowed two singles in the seventh, who both came around to score, for a proper Careful, Icarus. Now may be the time to chase him in deeper leagues with @BAL, @WSN, MIA up next. There’s some QS value here.
Ryan Feltner (COL) vs HOU (W) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 14% CSW, 70 pitches.
He’s the Colorado starter. In Coors.
Andrew Painter (PHI) @ SFG (ND) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 14% CSW, 90 pitches.
You sift through the mail. Bill, bill, junk…what’s this? It’s an invitation to Painter’s new home. You’re excited. You’ve waited a long time for him to get a place and saw pictures of it last week. It wasn’t the most glamorous, but it was solid. Foundational. You arrive with a bottle of wine – no one will ever hate a bottle of wine at a party – and you grab a piece of bread before getting the tour with all of his guests. It’s not much, but you inspect the pictures on the wall, the furniture, the potted plants, and it all looks right. This is a normal adult with some nice flair here and there. I wish I could have found the butter before going on this tour–But then you feel it. The floor falls a little more than you expect. You look down and notice the cotton swirling around your socks. Oh no, you whisper. A Shag Rug. I’m holding – he got Singled Out and Koufax wasn’t kind. Don’t give up yet.
Casey Mize (DET) @ MIN (L) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 90 pitches.
It was a brutal night in Minnesota and he sat 92/93 mph, down two ticks from last year. On the plus side, he’s getting legit extra movement on his four-seamer (+1″ vert, +4″ ride!) and I wonder if Mize will become a solid Toby by May.
Chris Sale (ATL) @ LAA (L) – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 77 pitches.
Aces gonna GET LIT UP ON FIRE Sale. It was a rough fourth with walks and HBP (he was very clearly not locked in…), then a two-run shot in the fifth before getting the hook. The good news – he’s still getting slider whiffs, and it was just one of those days. Whatareyagonnado.
Game of the Day
Jacob Misiorowski vs. Garrett Crochet – Jay Mis is trying to earn the AGA tag while all of Boston needs Crochet to save them.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo courtesy of Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X)
