Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Wednesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Ryne Nelson (ARI) @ NYM (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 86 pitches.
I’ll make this quick. I really like Ryne Nelson. I also really don’t think we can properly judge him for the season after his 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 86 pitches (W) in Citi Field. Why? Because the wind was ridiculous and helped him throw 21+” vert four-seamers, which allowed him to move away from the cutter/curve to LHB approach and just hurl heaters 83% (67% to RHB) of the time for success. But then again, if a pitcher can just throw fastballs and return a line like that, isn’t that a great thing?
We didn’t quite know how to rank Nelson in the preseason and I regret not leaning into him more. It’s truly elite fastball and I anticipate Nelson will feature the trio of secondaries more in non-outlier situations, propelling him to consistent production throughout the year, and when it is an outlier like this, well, that looks like it can be consistent production, too.
The best feature to find in a starter is a legit fastball he can throw for strikes and not get beat. That’s Nelson. Enjoy.
Let’s see how every other SP did Wednesday:
Sonny Gray (BOS) vs MIL (W) – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 90 pitches.
Boy do I love when it’s a Sonny delight. It didn’t feel like that in Boston. Absolutely not at 40 degrees on the stick, but Koufax was incredibly generous and we’re all smiling about it. The fact that Sonny didn’t have a large drop in velocity despite the wicked temperature is kinda cool. Oh, and he had 4.4″ of extra vert on his four-seamer with a bit less cut. I wonder if that’s a change…
Mitch Keller (PIT) vs SDP (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 75 pitches.
He was a tick down and definitely didn’t have the same horizontal ride gains from the Citi Field start, but his four-seamer is sitting away from deadzone territory at 16-17″ now and it worked well with his sweeper to take down RHB. Maybe that increase is due to his heater sitting just under 93 mph (remember when he hit 100.9 mph at Tread Athletics?) and I’m so tepid on Keller, it hurts. But fine, Vargas Rule if you want against the Nationals and Rays. I get it.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) @ TOR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 96 pitches.
Aces gonna ace, but make us annoyed by it. He went four-seamer/sweeper heavy without many of the gyro sliders or 93 mph cutters, while the splitter and curve feel weren’t there against LHB. Not his best, and I love how 0 ER and 0.83 WHIP is “not his best.”
Tyler Mahle (SFG) vs PHI (ND) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 94 pitches.
You told me he wouldn’t be good until he got the Marlins. I said he’s not a good play until the Marlins. And listen, how was I supposed to know he was going to sit 93 mph out of nowhere? Wait, he did what now. That’s right, he’s broken out of the 92 mph field and sat 93-94 mph all the way until the sixth frame, when it came down to 91-93 (hitting 93.5 mph on his last pitch…a flared single that served us a Philly). His low strike rate on the pitch was not representative of his feel for the game, and the splitter did legit work to LHB. And yet, he heads to Cincy then hosts the Dodgers. Sigh. BUT AFTER! Yeah, yeah, the Marlins. I got it. Seriously, if he’s still 93 mph then, I’m so down.
MacKenzie Gore (TEX) vs SEA (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 82 pitches.
This is the moment when I regret not pushing Gore higher up on The List in February even though I wanted to. And NOW is the moment I scold myself for typing something so irrational as the sample size is too small and Gore was hot in April last year before coming down to Earth. What is truly different? The home park? The sinker was barely touched at 14% to LHB and they landed down-and-away. Otherwise, it’s the same Gore at nearly 96 mph and we ride in Sacré Verde.
Michael McGreevy (STL) @ WSN (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 91 pitches.
He’s now down 2-3 ticks, kicking his legs like a swan to keep him from dipping under 90 mph, and yet, here we are, with six innings and a dub, allowing just one run with four baserunners. Yeah, but HAISTBMBWT?! You’re not. McGreevy is the knife that lets you spread the butter. I don’t get it. Neither do I. If you want to take the chance on Koufax against the Guardians and Marlins, sure, go ahead. It was 70% weak contact and 75% grounders, after all.
Michael Lorenzen (COL) vs HOU (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 100 pitches.
In Coors, eh? Props to you Lorenzo The Strong. Where did that nickname come from. I don’t know, I need to write something, right? You already know this can’t be trusted.
Joey Cantillo (CLE) vs KCR (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 88 pitches.
Changeup wasn’t even spotted well and he still earned 7/18 whiffs on it, and his four-seamer command was terrible at 40% strikes. Nick, look at the line. I KNOW. Wanna know what happened? Cantillo learned a new slider. Like brand new. Call it a cutter before if you like, but the fella went from a 6″+ vert cutter to a -7″ drop slider and it saved the day for 85% strikes. Yes, two hits, but whatever, he needed those strikes badly. The curveball showed up, too, and induced weak contact and that’s your ballgame. Cantillo with this breaker is a far better pitcher (proper weapon for LHB when he gets it down), but hot dang, I wish that four-seamer command wasn’t so terrible.
Bryan Woo (SEA) @ TEX (L) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 83 pitches.
Aces gonna make us furrow our brow. Two strikeouts, eh? Too bad the changeup and slider combined for 4/10 strikes (just one terrible changeup in there).
Dylan Cease (TOR) vs LAD (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 8 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 96 pitches.
Ah yes, the Cherry Bomb nature of Cease expressed in a single start. A Gallows Pole with a Dusty Donut. That’s the #5 combo meal. At least he’s using the sinker to RHB more, but he did throw ball four with the new pitch twice. That doesn’t really matter a whole lot, but it does show that he doesn’t have the best wrangle on the pitch yet. Anyway, he is who he is.
Colin Rea (CHC) @ TBR (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 79 pitches.
Ayyyy, he survived like the ole days! His pitch count was down to sub 80, but he managed to squeak through five frames, and did so showcasing wildly different movement across all his pitches, from extra sweep to increased vert (maybe the Trop was causing the latter). It’s likely an arm-angle drop, and he did a great job of executing what he wanted to do with both heaters and secondaries. The bad news? Phillies x2 + Dodgers next. Sigh. At least he’ll be in rhythm by the time we want to stream him.
Cristian Javier (HOU) @ COL (ND) – 1.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 15% CSW, 20 pitches.
Javier left this one early with shoulder issues and J.P. France is getting the call to take his spot. Don’t add now, but wait to see what he looks like. Astros fans are surely missing Valdez right now. Uhhh. Okay, maybe not.
Grant Holmes (ATL) @ LAA (W) – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 99 pitches.
So the slider is still worse and four-seamer is…worse too. Koufax is a kind fella for 9/10 outs on heaters and I’m not buying from REB. But he gets the Marlins next. Okay fine, just one more BUT THEN WE’RE DONE.
Michael King (SDP) @ PIT (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 95 pitches.
A strange one from King where he didn’t have the feel for the front-hip sinker and stayed away instead, plus the changeup wasn’t coming out right and landed gloveside to LHB. Look, I dig King at heart, but it’s the feeling of that March Madness team you know is good enough to win it all, but then they’ll have that game where they can’t hit a three-ball and you sit there wondering why you had so much faith in them. I don’t want to be stuck without a bracket after the opening weekend, you know? Please King, give us one of those starts that makes us truly believe this season.
Bailey Ober (MIN) vs DET (W) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 99 pitches.
You know what, here’s a Gold Star. It’s been tough being Bailey and a man deserves props for surviving, even if he went five shutout and got Singled Out for two runs in sixth, leaving us with a Philly. He’s at 88 mph with worse extension and a sub 10% SwStr rate on his fastball, changeup, and sliders. Noooooope.
Sean Burke (CHW) vs BAL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 92 pitches.
Sadly, the velocity wasn’t what it was last time out at 93/94 mph, and he isn’t painting the zone with a delicate brush, but the two-plane movement is still around, and that’s cool. I still have an eye on him and would consider a stream against the Rays in deeper formats, but it’s too much risk for 12-teamers.
Kyle Bradish (BAL) @ CHW (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 96 pitches.
I can’t believe Bradish allowed a run to score by failing to catch a ball back from the catcher after ball four, and after he slowly went to pick it up, the runner advancing from second to third on the walk came around to score. Welp, it was unearned, he fanned seven, and…wait. Seven? But he only had four whiffs and his slider had a 53% strike rate. This isn’t super hot, Bradish. Please be super hot. He doesn’t have the same ceiling as the Top 10 arms due to a likely elevated WHIP based on his sinker/four-seamer, but he profiled out to me as a 25-30% strikeout arm across high volume and good-enough ratios. I wonder if that makes him more in the Cherry Bomb tier with Cease than it does closer to the George Kirby range. Then again, he kinda is Kirby. Just be better, alright? Thx.
Luis Severino (ATH) @ NYY (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 5 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 100 pitches.
That’s pretty fantastic, though I have to wonder what the conditions were in the Bronx at 42 degrees and likely a ton of wind to return nearly 26″ of sweep on multiple breakers. We have a tough decision now – Severino heads back to Sacré Verde and we traditionally hate that…but it’s against the Rangers and White Sox, then a date in Texas. That’s tempting, especially with his affinity for the 94 mph cutter to LHB. The floor is low, y’all. Do what’s best for you.
Eury Pérez (MIA) vs CIN (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 95 pitches.
That’s fine. I worry about Eury’s command failing to take a step forward, as the heater was down the pipe a ton + secondaries to LHB were in shambles. At least he’s nailing the down-and-away corner with his slider and sweeper to RHB, but that’s the easy one. He may be a sell high (even if the ratios don’t suggest he’s “high”, Eury is still highly regarded), as I’m not sure when he’ll come into form.
Will Warren (NYY) vs ATH (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 85 pitches.
It was a tie game, so don’t be upset at 4.2 frames. Be upset that he fought his command across his entire arsenal to both LHB and RHB. This isn’t the Warren I wanted to see, but then again, it was 42 degrees yesterday. Man, I really hate how much I need to focus on cold weather in April this season. He’ll get the Angels next week, and it’ll be in the 60s or so. Phew. I’m in.
Miles Mikolas (WSN) vs STL (L) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 55 pitches.
Oh, so we’re at the point that Mikolas is all good after three innings? Yeah, I got my bag. I’m good.
Aaron Nola (PHI) @ SFG (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 84 pitches.
A PQS is alright, especially on a day with just five overall whiffs and a 43% strike four-seamer, but you may not know he allowed all three runs with two outs in the sixth off a three-run shot. Noooooo. That said, I LOVE that Nola went 31% sinker vs. 12% four-seamer to RHB and all the sinkers were inside. A pair of outs on weak contact, and a 54% CSW is beautiful and I hope it encourages him to keep that attack moving forward. I’m going to start him against the Cubs, where I expect better feel for his arsenal against LHB.
Shane Drohan (MIL) @ BOS (L) – 2.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 63 pitches.
It was a spot start after the rotation was disrupted by a doubleheader and we shouldn’t see Drohan again anytime soon. He’s already been optioned. Keep in mind, this was an MLB debut in 40 degree weather, and the southpaw does have proper SWATCH ability with 93-95 mph velocity. Pay attention when he gets the call with runway.
Cole Ragans (KCR) @ CLE (L) – 0.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 0 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 18 pitches.
He struck out the first two batters, then took a line drive to the pitching hand, allowed another hit and walk, and was pulled. Life is pain. The report is that “he should be good to go” for his next outing, and who knows, maybe that’s sooner than you think after tossing under 20 pitches here.
David Peterson (NYM) vs ARI (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 85 pitches.
He gets the Dodgers and Cubs next. Please let him go in hopes to stream him for Rockie Road after, cool? Cool.
Reid Detmers (LAA) vs ATL (L) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 92 pitches.
Womp womp. Once again, we saw the fastball/slider focus and Atlanta consistently was on it. Now it’s the Yankees and Padres and while there’s a chance he gives you strikeout production, I don’t trust him to be a good ratio arm without more from his other offerings. That four-seamer is good, but not great.
Joe Boyle (TBR) vs CHC (L) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 84 pitches.
Boyle may be getting a little extra time if Pepiot heads out for a rehab assignment, and that would allow Boyle to go next Wednesday against the White Sox…if they want to go that route. The Rays could also take advantage of Thursday and Monday’s off-day to go four-man and re-insert Pepiot at the start of the next turn. I’d be okay with that start if he gets it, though this was absurdly worse command than previous starts. The sinker was inconsistent and the slider held a 41% strike rate. That strike rate suggests pure chaos (it wasn’t), but this can’t be trusted, of course.
Brady Singer (CIN) @ MIA (L) – 2.2 IP, 5 ER, 10 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 73 pitches.
Well, that was terrible. He also sat just above 90 mph and I regret putting him on The List this week, even in the lower streaming option tier. It’s hard to imagine a true bounceback worth your time vs. the terrible risk.
Framber Valdez (DET) @ MIN (L) – 5.0 IP, 8 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 87 pitches.
It was a low strike curveball night, but the real story was a laborious first frame where we saw six runs cross as we painfully watched the dude get Singled Out despite 67% weak contact. Koufax, you monster. It’s the risk of groundball-heavy arms like Valdez, as you know, and these will happen here and there. We gotta ignore it.
Game of the Day
Anthony Kay vs. Seth Lugo – This is the game that we all start picking up Kay. I can feel it.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photos by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire and Mauro Lima/Unsplash | Featured image by Ethan Kaplan (@djfreddie10.bsky.social on Blue Sky and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)
