Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Wednesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU) vs ATH (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 12 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 102 pitches.
We knew it was coming. Lance McCullers Jr. hadn’t granted us an all-around night of production in his return to the bump and after making us endure a nightmare of a game, he came through against the Athletics in a monster way: 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 12 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 102 pitches. It’s not a fluke, but it is a bit of an exception, Golden Goal and all.
I could outline a whole discussion about the slider and curve looking filthy but unreliable to return the same strike rates next time out, but that pales in comparison to one simple fact. He gets the Pirates next. Just go for that and likely the Guardians after. Sure, the floor is still there when he can’t find the zone, though I’m willing to wager this outing raised his confidence enough that he’ll take advantage of the weak lineup. He’s not an instant-stud with his likely volatility ahead, just get the value now.
Let’s see how every other SP did Wednesday:
Paul Skenes (PIT) @ ARI (W) – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 96 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. He’s set records for ERA across his first 25 starts and while that’s awesome, I’m curious what the innings totals are for those minimums…On the real, he’s a stud who doesn’t quite have the pitchability of Wheeler or Skubal to go 7+ frames constantly, but that’s fine. He’s dope and makes us feel dope.
Drew Rasmussen (TBR) vs MIN (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 74 pitches.
After all the angry comments that Rasmussen would never go six full frames, he’s now done so in three straight games. He’s too efficient not to comfortably go six frames and even if I’m a little sad to see the breakers get little action (it’ll be harder to keep the strikeouts afloat without them), he’s clearly made to go long. Yes, seven frames is a possibility given he went six in under 80 pitches for two straight now. Embrace the man.
Matthew Boyd (CHC) vs COL (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 95 pitches.
Even without the slider returning to form, Boyd has zero issues taking advantage of Rockie Road. Kinda like how you’re always capable of getting slain by the early Dark Souls enemies, Boyd is enough of a vet to prevent that from happening and as a LHP against the Nationals, expect him to not need a bonfire for at least another week.
Trevor Williams (WSN) @ SEA (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 77 pitches.
Instead of a Gold Star, can I give him a Rainbow Star Instead? Yes? Thanks. Koufax, you do you.
Clarke Schmidt (NYY) @ LAA (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 99 pitches.
Atta boy Schmidt! I’ve constantly asked “Warren or Schmidt?” this year and it’s clear Warren’s stuff is filthier, especially with a better four-seamer than Clarke. That said, I dig the cutter finding its form to LHB instead of the chaos we’ve seen before and his sweeper away to RHB is on point. Just figure out that curve now, okay Clarke? You can’t go 8/21 strikes on that thing.
Tyler Mahle (TEX) vs TOR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 92 pitches.
It’s not the prettiest with three walks, but that’s a lovely time for Mahle against the contact-heavy Jays. This was his best impression of Gausman with BSB all day with four-seamers and splitters and it’s the most encouraged I’ve been all year. That splitter was far better than usual as it sat low across all six frames, while that fastball barely left the top of the zone. He didn’t need the cutter or slider, even if they played their roles well. This is awesome and now he has a glorious schedule across the next four starts. Man, I wish I had been more in on Mahle earlier.
Paxton Schultz (TOR) @ TEX (ND) – 2.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 45 pitches.
Oh hey, that’s fun! Four strikeouts in 2.2 innings is great. His command to throw high heaters is cool, but the mid vert, poor extension, and average HAVAA at 94 mph doesn’t suggest sustainability, even if he goes “Cannibal McSanchez”. And, you know, the whole he’s not actually a starter thing.
Noah Cameron (KCR) vs CIN (W) – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 92 pitches.
What a lovely fit for Cameron, strolling down the Reds Carpet in his jersey from the Pérez collection. Yes, that’s cutters and changeups and breakers as his focus, sneaking fastballs for called strikes and outs whenever possible. I’m looking forward to his summer blockbuster, which has been delayed due to Seth Lugo returning to the rotation. I wonder if he’ll be optioned this weekend or if his manager will fight to replace Lorenzen in the rotation. Back to you, Joan.
Luis Severino (ATH) @ HOU (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 92 pitches.
Ayyy, nice job Sevy! With the heavy set of RHB in front of him, he nailed the outside edge with cutters and sweepers as expected. He’s a Toby and the Twins are next, if that’s your jam. He needed Koufax to help a bit here, especially with the Astros resisting some of those secondaries away, but he’s an obvious vet with a chance for a QS each time out.
Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) vs NYY (L) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 5 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 93 pitches.
Look at Kikuchi, intentionally walking Judge twice and making that work to keep his team in the game. I don’t want to go even on ERA and WHIP (1.80 vs. 1.80!), though I’ll give Kikuchi props for returning 39% CSW sliders as he threw the pitch half the time. He was terrified to throw four-seamers for strikes, though, and I’m still super skeptical. I have zero interest in Fenway next.
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) @ CLE (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 74 pitches.
A 1.80 ERA! And 1.60 WHIP with just three strikeouts and a no-decision. But he survived! Kershaw made his career going inside to RHB with cut-fastballs on the edge merged with sliders underneath. Here? What, five pitches in total inside? HE’S NOT THE SAME. Please, I implore you to not consider TATIAGA – He’s more like TFAWSRATY. I’ll leave it up to you to figure that out.
Brayan Bello (BOS) @ MIL (ND) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 77 pitches.
Is this better? With four whiffs, 55% strikes on sweepers and changeups, and no pitch exceeding a 28% CSW? Nope. He did utilize the cutter again (sweet!) but it went 4/9 strikes (not sweet!). I’m still out, even if the ratios are cool. You can thank Koufax for that with seven outs via meh sinkers.
Landen Roupp (SFG) @ DET (L) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 81 pitches.
Roupp was strong for four frames, then an error, walk, hit, double knocked him out. Womp womp. At least he doesn’t get the other two runs attached to him? The curve was such heavy usage and was overall effective, though it didn’t earn the chases we normally se. However, the changeup stepped up against LHB (yes!) for 5/15 whiffs and I’m all for that. Not the best sinkers to RHB (too much over the plate to RHB) but get this, we saw ten cutters! I hope they return, even if they weren’t that great. Just another look to get him closer to six frames in the future.
Hunter Greene (CIN) @ KCR (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 88 pitches.
Second start back from the IL and it’s more of the same – high velocity, but a 60% slider strike rate. For him to be HIM, that slider needs to be at least 65% strikes, if not 70%. You got this, Greene.
Tanner Gordon (COL) @ CHC (L) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 79 pitches.
Outside of Coors, sure, but the Cubs! And not a terrible outing! HAISTBMBWT?! Dude, Gordon isn’t butter, he’s jam, as in the ones he normally finds himself in. Get it together.
Kolby Allard (CLE) vs LAD (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 62 pitches.
Uhhhh, this is kinda great from Dralla? Sure, not someone anyone started and no regrets for that, but props to him, yeah?
Freddy Peralta (MIL) vs BOS (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 108 pitches.
He struggled to putaway batters and the breakers were rough. Just twelve thrown as Professor Chaos whipped his cape around and made the sunlight reflect off his glasses during his moment on the bump. You know the deal.
Jackson Jobe (DET) vs SFG (ND) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 95 pitches.
This was a tough one for Jobe, who was pushing your WHIP up before the fifth inning, where he brought the ERA down with it on a terrible sinker over the plate for a two-run blast. But that’s not all. His velocity was down 1-2 ticks (93 mph sinker on that longball is…a problem) and he avoided reporters after the game. Uh oh. Yeah…I sure hope he’s not hurt. If he’s starting on normal rest against the White Sox, we keep this going.
Shane Smith (CHW) @ NYM (ND) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 5 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 86 pitches.
Smith’s secondaries were the worst we’ve seen this season, with the changeup failing to eclipse a 53% strike rate and the breakers returning 5/13 strikes between them. Yikes. It was a rough and rainy day, so I’m inclined to ignore this one. Thing is, the Tigers are next. I had him in Questionable before today and nothing has changed. On the positive side, you normally see a dip in velocity across so many pitches in few frames (fatigue n all) and to see Smith over 95 mph despite it is a great sign of his stamina gains.
Griffin Canning (NYM) vs CHW (L) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 80 pitches.
Ah yes, the WHITE SOX are the ones to disrupt Canning’s Vargas Rule (okay, it was the rain, truly). We’re still seeing great changeups and slider movement and avoiding the heart of the plate, but the CrySox took advantage of his four-seamers and slowballs in the zone, while the slider and change returned sub 50% strikes between them. He really wasn’t as bad as the line suggests (he got squeezed, too) and treat his next start against the Dodgers as if he didn’t have this one. I’m benching regardless. Wow, just like you said about Smith. IT’S THE SAME THING.
Pablo López (MIN) @ TBR (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 95 pitches.
Pablo was cruising until a pair of longballs did him in. He’s messing around with the kick-change with two carrying so much drop, and even if one was sent far over the fence for a longball, the pitch was a savior for the rest of the game. The sweeper did everything you could ask of it against RHB and I also love how he avoided the heart of the plate with his four-seamer. Koufax wasn’t completely on his side and he went just 3/37 whiffs in two-strike counts, with a sub 10% putaway rate. Just one of those days and all is good. Wait, how did you get that data so easily? I’m using our PL Pro Live Pitch app, which just pushed a new update for count-specific data. Yes, live Statcast data that’s easier to understand than Baseball Savant’s gamefeed. If you’re into this stuff at all, there truly is no better app.
Miles Mikolas (STL) @ BAL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 72 pitches.
You thought you were going to get away with this, eh? He was Singled Out, sure, and the defense behind him often smiles back at Koufax above as they work hand-in-hand, but not today. No, Mikolas, your breakers allowed five hits and the fastballs are still so blegh. He’s a 15-teamer Toby and a desperate Win chance for 12-teamers.
Zac Gallen (ARI) vs PIT (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 92 pitches.
He was cruising through four, then mishaps in the fifth + a poor sixth in a Careful, Icarus ruined what actually was a solid performance from Gallen. The curve is good. The changeup is helping. The BSB is there against RHB and I’m surprised his sliders didn’t get as many bites. He’s not totally borked, I promise. Definitely questionable against Atlanta next. And Seattle. And the Padres. But not in Coors! I think.
Kyle Hart (SDP) vs MIA (ND) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 57 pitches.
Hart returned from the minors to go four solid innings and get knocked out in the fifth. The sweeper struggled to earn strikes as his most thrown pitch and without a legit changeup, I’m always going to question Hart’s value when paired with 90/91 mph velocity. The sweeper/slider isn’t good enough.
Cade Povich (BAL) vs STL (L) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 96 pitches.
I’m not entirely sure why Povich elected to throw mostly sinkers to LHB but at least I dug the curve and high four-seamers to RHB, the latter returning our strikeouts on the night at 18″ of vert. He still has to figure out the changeup, though, and seriously, what was up with those LHB sinkers? Seattle + Tigers next for Povich = no thanks.
George Kirby (SEA) vs WSN (L) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 78 pitches.
Ooooof. I love the fact that Kirby is actually trying to get his four-seamer up and out of the zone, but the Nationals are still making contact with it. If the slider were more reliable and not floated up, it could perform as a better BSB and I wouldn’t worry about this. The velocity is there and an all-LHB lineup makes things a little tougher for Kirby. I dig the low curveballs, too.
Sandy Alcantara (MIA) @ SDP (ND) – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 0 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 71 pitches.
OKAY WE’RE DROPPING SANDY. Sorry, I had to shout it. He’s been off and I’ve sat here, waiting for things to properly click. He can’t get his changeup working (40% strikes), his slider was floated over the plate, the fastball command isn’t right, it’s all just not the man we know and love. I still believe the stuff isn’t gone and that opens the door for a tweak here and there to make this a TIARA situation (look at Gausman’s resurgence, for example. One tweak and he’s back!) and yet, something needs to change. Maybe a trade…Many would likely call me bonkers for telling you Sandy on a different team becomes a legit 12-teamer arm, and the fact we’ll likely have to wait at least a month for that to happen is enough to drop him now for something that helps. It’s just so dang painful.
Game of the Day
Chris Sale vs. Zack Wheeler – Ummm yes please.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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