Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Friday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs DET (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 91 pitches.
Is it time to start believing in the resurgence of Tanner Bibee? The right-hander has found more consistent success recently, but it’s difficult to tell if it’s believable. He extended his string of eye-catching outings on Friday, completing the seventh frame for the third time in his last five starts via 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 15 whiffs, 34% CSW, 91 pitches (W) against the Tigers.
With that outing, Bibee has been productive in six of his last seven starts. Removing the clunker in which he surrendered seven runs to the Nationals, he’s recorded a 2.16 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and a 21% strikeout rate since May 9th. It’s not quite the strikeout ceiling of 2023-24, but the ratios are certainly notable. The key to his success doesn’t jump out when we look at our typical indicators, so I’ve gone into detective mode.
This may be a little Pepe Silvia-coded, but I wrote down a lot of numbers on a large sticky note, and I think I’ve cracked the code. Bibee has long been a four-seamer-first pitcher, throwing it 46% of the time as a rookie. He introduced a cutter in 2024, and his sinker came along last year. Over the years, his four-seamer has become increasingly hittable, leading to more hard contact and fewer whiffs.
My hypothesis is that he or the Guardians have recognized that trend, leading to him emphasizing other offerings. Here’s where that sticky note comes in handy. Bibee has made seven starts in which he threw his four-seamer more than his other fastball variants. In those outings, he has a 5.92 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and a 17% strikeout rate. He attempted to assert the cutter as his primary fastball thrice, and while the results were good (1.20 ERA, 23% K%), he didn’t earn enough strikes, leading to more walks (12% BB%) and an inflated WHIP (1.33 WHIP).
He didn’t test it out until the calendar flipped to May, but when he throws his sinker more than his four-seamer and cutter, he’s performed much better, returning a 2.90 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and a 25% strikeout rate in five starts. Even if you combine the primary four-seamer starts with the primary cutter starts (he was still throwing his four-seamer more than the sinker), the results remain notably worse: 4.58 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 19% strikeout rate.
So, if that’s the key and Bibee is trusting his sinker more, why does it work, and will it stick? To answer the first question, it works because he’s able to command the sinker much better than the four-seamer, earning more strikes and a higher zone rate, getting him ahead in counts, and putting him in position to earn strikeouts. Additionally, the sinker induces much weaker contact, allowing him to live in the zone without allowing much damage.
Most importantly, it allows the four-seamer to play up. In starts where Bibee threw his four-seamer more than his sinker, the four-seamer recorded a 6% SwStr%. However, when used as a surprise pitch up in the zone when his sinker is deployed as a primary pitch, the four-seamer induced an 11% SwStr%, bringing it back to its 2024 heyday.
Now, will this continue working? I’m inclined to believe that it will. Maybe not to the point where he’s in the Holly tier, but I think he can certainly rejoin The List as a streamable Toby, with a hint of upside. I’m willing to test it out @MIL next, and if he displays the same emphasis on sinkers with the accompanying success, then we can hold on for @CHW and vs TEX afterward. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Friday:
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) vs PHI (W) – 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 15 Ks – 26 Whiffs, 43% CSW, 95 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. This is one of the best starts of all time, as Misiorowski set the record for most strikeouts in a Maddux. He earned a Golden Goal, but the accolades don’t stop there. The Miz has a 0.17 ERA across his last eight starts, giving him the lowest ERA in an eight-start span in MLB history. He also broke his own record with 12 strikeouts on 100+ mph pitches in a game, as well as 58 100+ mph pitches in a single game (he also broke his own record with 45 101+ mph pitches). Maybe the most notable of all, he broke another one of his own records, throwing the fastest pitch ever by a starter, clocking in at 104.5 mph. Shoutout to Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) for all the fun facts! Is he the new #1 SP on Monday? (View Game Card)
Javier Assad (CHC) @ SFG (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 85 pitches.
With Jameson Taillon hitting the IL and Matthew Boyd’s return delayed, Assad got another shot and nearly replicated his previous outing. He’s a kitchen sink command-focused arm, which allows him to consistently return grounders and weak contact. Don’t be fooled by the consecutive outings of five punchouts driven by an unsustainable 50% PAR. He’s not guaranteed another start with Boyd’s imminent return. (View Game Card)
Sean Sullivan (COL) @ ATH (ND) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 49 pitches.
We got an MLB debut from the southpaw Sean Sullivan, the Rockies’ #11 prospect according to MLB Pipeline. While they were kind enough not to make him debut in Coors, they did him dirty by starting him in Las Vegas instead, while limiting his pitch count. The elevation still reduced the movement on his pitches, but I’m certainly not blown away by the 87-88 mph velo on his four-seamer, which he combined with 83 mph cutters, upper-70s changeups, and mid-70s sweepers. The elite extension combined with prospect reports suggesting the slowball is his best offering makes his clearest comp Joey Cantillo. Even if he wasn’t destined to make half of his starts in Coors, I still wouldn’t endorse a pitcher throwing so far below the 90 mph threshold. (View Game Card)
Sonny Gray (BOS) vs TEX (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 88 pitches.
I was worried the Sonny weather of the last game would be ruined by Gray skies and rain in his next start. It was originally scheduled to be in Tropicana Field’s domed stadium, allowing him to avoid the poor weather. With his start getting pushed back a day, he was lucky to land in another domed stadium at Globe Life Field. He brought the good vibes with him, easing my worries about poor ratios and low strikeout totals with a beautiful start propelled by success with his entire arsenal. Guess what! He’s scheduled to get another domed stadium vs TOR next before facing the elements in Coors afterwards. (View Game Card)
Sam Aldegheri (LAA) vs TBR (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 74 pitches.
A key member of the Team Italy WBC rotation, Aldegheri will be relied upon as a key member of the Angels’ rotation with Jack Kochanowicz out for the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Not only does the southpaw throw in the low 90s, but it comes with some of the worst extension in baseball (5.6′), making him extremely hittable. He does a good job of throwing batters off with low changeups and avoiding his four-seamer against LHB with cutters away, but it won’t be enough. (View Game Card)
Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) @ CIN (ND) – 2.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 85 pitches.
E-Rod has had his command all year, but like a bad comedian, he got a quick hook, pulling him off stage in the third. His command disappeared here, as he failed to eclipse 60% strikes with any of his pitches, handing out a season-high five free passes. I’d say it’s time to give him a break now that his command has wavered, but I’m down to give him a mulligan in deep leagues with LAA up next. (View Game Card)
Bryce Miller (SEA) @ WSN (W) – 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 91 pitches.
The reins are off, and this horse is running free! Miller completed the eighth frame for the first time in his career, as he was ultra-efficient with 71% strikes across his entire arsenal. Most importantly, he maintained that extra tick of velo, sitting 96 for the entirety of the start. As long as his secondaries keep batters honest with strikes, he and his four-seamer will dominate. (View Game Card)
Nick Lodolo (CIN) vs ARI (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 96 pitches.
Lodolo was inefficient, as changueps returned just 56% strikes against a RHB-heavy lineup. He wasn’t all to blame, though, as his four-seamer was fouled off a whopping 12 times for a ridiculous 39% foul ball rate, extending at-bats and knocking him out in the sixth. It really feels like he’s so close to having that big breakout start that kicks off a string of successful outings. It’s like making a sandwich every day, but it’s just not tasting as amazing as it looks. All the ingredients are there; he just keeps getting a bit unlucky. The Mets up next could be just what he needs. Like the perfect pickle. (View Game Card)
Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) vs MIA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 90 pitches.
After relying on his heaters too much last time, Ashcraft realized that’s not gonna work, and returned to relying on his breakers. Unfortunately, the Marlins still found a way to target them, as four-seamers and sinkers accounted for four of the five hits against him. I’m hoping Ashcraft is able to put a stop to this trend. The league is realizing that his breakers are unhittable, so they’re keying in on his Empty Velocity heaters and finding a way to do damage. I believe in the breakers finding their way back to the front lines in this turning point of his season. (View Game Card)
Anthony Kay (CHW) vs LAD (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 89 pitches.
That’s more than oh Kay! He took down the Dodgers with what would’ve been a Golden Goal if not for the historic performance from The Miz. I’ll give him the Gold Star as a consolation prize. Sweepers and sliders dominated, combining for seven whiffs and 40% CSW, as he did a great job of keeping them low and gloveside. Meanwhile, his Ras Pack stuck to the edges of the zone for 10 whiffs and 70% strikes. Maybe the blowup last time was a false end to the six-start run that allowed him to produce a sub-2.00 ERA and a 20% strikeout rate. Despite handling the mighty Dodgers, I don’t really want to test that theory @ NYY next. (View Game Card)
Shane Baz (BAL) vs SDP (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 103 pitches.
The curveball command that has carried Baz wavered here, combining with four-seamers and sinkers for a mere 56% strike rate. He had more walks than strikeouts because he had just one strikeout. HAISTBMBWT?! It’s pretty impressive that he was able to induce 13 whiffs and find two-strike counts in 58% of his plate appearances, but still came away with just one punchout. That’s why we have putaway rate! He returned a minuscule 7% PAR that will certainly improve in future starts, but I’m not convinced the command will return in full. (View Game Card)
Nolan McLean (NYM) vs ATL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 93 pitches.
McLean’s really being held back by his breakers. Hold him back, bro! No! We want him to pitch well! He hasn’t commanded them well in over a month, and curves and sweepers once again combined for sub-55% strikes here. There’s only so much his Ras Pack can do when he’s not finding whiffs elsewhere. I ultimately think he’ll get the feel back sooner rather than later, but the tough schedule continues with @CIN, CHC, PHI next, making it difficult for him to get comfortable. I’m done with Nolan MdIrty! (View Game Card)
Jack Flaherty (DET) @ CLE (L) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 63 pitches.
We knew his recent strikeout success wasn’t going to last forever. Maybe you did! Okay, even if you believed in the results, heading to Cleveland, it was a clear avoid because his success had been so reliant on four-seamers and sliders. He’d be missing the curveball he needs to take down a LHB-heavy Guardians lineup. That’s exactly what happened, as Flaherty failed to put batters away with the support his fastball needed from his curve, leading to a HAISTBMBWT?! Ultimately, he was pulled before the start of the fourth with leg discomfort. Let’s hope he can avoid an IL stint. (View Game Card)
Sandy Alcantara (MIA) @ PIT (W) – 8.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 102 pitches.
Is Sandy back? That’s three straight starts of at least seven frames with a WHIP at or below 1.00. The previous outings seemed less sustainable because of the continued absence of his changeup. The slowball returned with a trio of whiffs and a 67% strike rate. That’s his most whiffs on the pitch in nearly a month, and it allowed the rest of his arsenal to relax a little. Sit back and enjoy the calming sounds of this smooth jazz. Isn’t he on the Yankees now? Anyway, the overall hectic command means Alcantara hasn’t shaken his HIPSTER label. (View Game Card)
Joe Ryan (MIN) vs STL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 102 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. It’s a PQS and a Dusty Donut, but we’ll take it. Who cares if he has two first names? His four-seamer is too dope to care about anything other than auto-starting him every week. (View Game Card)
Gage Jump (ATH) vs COL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 75 pitches.
I keep writing off Jump’s success, but he keeps getting it done. This one even came in Las Vegas, where his elite four-seamer was diminished to 14-15″ of iVB, instead of the typical 17″ we’ve seen from him on the road. It dominated regardless, sitting 97 mph at the top of the zone, leading to a career-high six punchouts. Changeups were way out of the zone (0% zone%) but still returned 43% CSW, while breakers were all over the place but still combined for 34% CSW. I’m going to blame this one on Rockie Road. They were super aggressive, leading to an absurd 40% O-Swing% that contributed heavily to his ability to get away with poorly located pitches. My mind isn’t changed. He’s worth streaming on the road because of his elite heater, but he’s too risky to start at home, with the exception apparently being Rockie Road. (View Game Card)
Kyle Leahy (STL) @ MIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 77 pitches.
Mr. Extendo was as hittable as ever, and the even usage of his six-pitch arsenal isn’t doing a good enough job keeping batters guessing. He was definitely Singled Out with seven hits on 15 balls in play, but with just eight whiffs, he’s clearly too contact-reliant. He’s had just three starts this year with double-digit whiffs, and while that makes him efficient, it leads to outings like this one, where he entered the sixth with just 66 pitches only to put three men on and allow two runs in a Careful, Icarus. He’s too hittable, ya’ll. He’s gotta get a better superpower. (View Game Card)
Landen Roupp (SFG) vs CHC (L) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 105 pitches.
It’s the command, sir! It’s off. Well, turn it back on then! I’m afraid it’s not that easy. Who designed this thing? Roupp’s sinker command continues to waver, and it returned just 53% strikes here. As much as his curve, changeup, and cutter dominated for 11 whiffs and 31% CSW, it wasn’t enough. He was put into too many disadvantageous counts, leading to a pitch count north of 100 without completing the fifth. To make matters worse, he left with two men on and two outs, and watched both inherited runners score on a homer to the very next batter. I’m hopeful that his ability to maintain the feel for his secondaries means he’ll get the sinker back shortly, though @ATL up next is hardly the softest landing spot to get it back together. (View Game Card)
Shane McClanahan (TBR) @ LAA (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 74 pitches.
This is a textbook Singled Out. All but two of the eight hits against him were singles, as he allowed a .615 BABIP. Come on, Koufax! What do you have against him? (View Game Card)
Andrew Painter (PHI) @ MIL (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 78 pitches.
Yeah, I don’t think the first inning is the problem. The Phillies tried to fix Painter by using him as a bulk reliever following Tanner Banks‘ opening frame. It didn’t work as his four-seamer was even worse with -2.3″ of iVB. Nevertheless, he was forced to use it as his primary offering because he couldn’t find the zone with sliders. There’s nothing to sink your teeth into. (View Game Card)
Trey Yesavage (TOR) vs NYY (W) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 6 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 81 pitches.
Oof! It’s getting worse, isn’t it? I mean, it’s not going to get better until you get to the hospital and get that arrow out of your knee. The same goes for Yesavage, who has completely lost his control. Not even four-seamers eclipsed 60% strikes here, as splitters and sliders combined for a dismal 46% mark. This is the downside of a splitter-focused arm, and it’s getting difficult to continue rostering him. It’s too obvious to say that he’s not worth rostering with this control, and I can’t predict when he’ll get it back. He has a TIARA, but it’s losing its luster. (View Game Card)
Jack Leiter (TEX) @ BOS (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 103 pitches.
The HIPSTER strikes again. I know I like to say it’s a coin flip with Leiter, but I don’t think that’s a fair assessment, as he hasn’t produced at a 50/50 split. I’d say he’s had five successful starts among 14 total starts this year (and that’s being generous), so he’s coming through about a third of the time. We’re getting close to the odds of pulling something worthwhile in a pack of Pokémon cards. It’s basically gambling. (View Game Card)
Zack Littell (WSN) vs SEA (L) – 1.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 13% CSW, 56 pitches.
I hope you read my Roundup-leading breakdown of Littell last week and avoided the end of his rickety Vargas Rule. He got destroyed in the second inning, forcing us to eat our bread butterless. That’s the sixth time he’s done that this year. Should there be an award for the pitcher with the most HAISTBMBWT?! It wouldn’t really be an award, but the trophy could be a toaster. (View Game Card)
Tatsuya Imai (HOU) @ KCR (ND) – 0.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 38 pitches.
As soon as I put up my hands and say, “Well, I guess his BSB with four-seamers and backwards sliders is enough to survive,” he gets obliterated as his command wavers. HAISTBMBWT?! 57% strikes on his one-two punch, and it’s more clear than ever that he won’t have consistent success without displaying a third offering. I’d love for it to be a pitch with legit gloveside movement, but I’d settle for the return of the splitter. (View Game Card)
Ryan Weathers (NYY) @ TOR (L) – 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 82 pitches.
That’s now four of Weathers’ last five outings with five or more runs allowed, single-digit whiffs, or multiple homers allowed. He did that just once in his first eight outings. I think it’s time to let him go. There’s got to be someone more immediately helpful on the wire, and who knows how long he keeps his rotation spot anyway, with Max Fried returning in two weeks. (View Game Card)
Griffin Canning (SDP) @ BAL (L) – 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 6 Hits, 5 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 93 pitches.
Not even increased slider usage will save you. This is getting painful. Is it crazy to say that I wish Germán Márquez was back in the rotation instead? The Padres have depth in the minor leagues that should pitch better than the 7.17 ERA Canning has produced in eight starts this year. (View Game Card)
Roki Sasaki (LAD) @ CHW (L) – 4.1 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 91 pitches.
Oh come on! I just hyped you up so much, and you made me look like a genius. Now, I feel like a fool for ever putting my trust in a Dodgers pitcher. Maybe there’s a silver lining to help us maintain our faith in him. Fine! I’ll take a look. Well, he did sit 99 with four-seamers and 88 mph with sliders. His command of sliders was awful, but his splitters made up for it with dominance down low. So why did he pitch so poorly? He was doing great with just a solo shot against him through four frames before it all fell apart in the fifth. A walk, strikeout, three straight hits, strikeout, and two more walks knocked him out of the game. Three more inherited runs scored after he was pulled. It seemed as though being Singled Out spooked him, leading him to avoid the zone entirely. It’s certainly a lapse of confidence and mental fortitude, but he was clearly unlucky to allow such a high BABIP and those inherited runs. The skills are still present, and I’m giving him another chance vs BAL next. (View Game Card)
Spencer Strider (ATL) @ NYM (L) – 3.0 IP, 7 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 68 pitches.
Strider’s heater is fading, falling to 94 mph on average in this one. It got worse as the start wore on, though, starting at 95-96 mph in the first before sitting 88 mph in the fourth. Oh no. Atlanta thought the same thing, removing Strider with arm soreness. I’d be fine dropping him, knowing that he was trending in the wrong direction, regardless of the velo, and is likely headed to the IL now. (View Game Card)
Luinder Avila (KCR) vs HOU (L) – 0.2 IP, 8 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 0 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 49 pitches.
That’s about as unfortunate an outing as can be. Three straight hits, including two homers to open the game. Nearly escaping with two outs. Then five more baserunners, being pulled from the game, and watching all the runners score on a grand slam. The Empty Velocity heaters are too hittable, and his breakers aren’t enough to take the heat off of them. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Tarik Skubal vs. Joey Cantillo – I can’t believe he’s already back.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
