Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Friday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Peter Lambert (HOU) vs BAL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 10 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 104 pitches.
Many pitchers establish a certain baseline and threshold for performance that we tend to become familiar with. The pitchers who are consistently great and still produce even when not at their best get the AGA tag. The pitchers who have high ceilings and low floors are labeled Cherry Bombs. The boring pitchers who turn in solid, yet unspectacular performances week after week get stuck with the Toby classification.
In his first year back from NPB and away from the cold grasp of Coors Field, Peter Lambert has established himself as a boring ole’ Toby. After fanning eight batters in his first two starts, he pitched to a 3.28 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and a 20% K% across his next 10 outings. Great ratios, but an unspectacular strikeout rate that suggested he had a ceiling that wasn’t worth holding onto in standard leagues.
It takes a lot, but sometimes borderline waiver wire pitchers can change our expectations, and ultimately graduate from Toby status. Lambert is making a case to earn the Holly designation with his recent performances. His previous three starts saw him tap into the strikeout potential we saw only briefly in April.
The first one, on June 29th, was one of Lambert’s worst starts of the year, but he followed that up with a 17-whiff performance, his highest total since fanning 23 in his season debut. He didn’t stop there, ending the first half with seven strikeouts, the most he had recorded since his second start of the year.
The key to this new level? A brand-new sweeper that clocked in two ticks faster at 83-84 mph. It also showcased a different movement profile, with similar horizontal movement but six inches less drop, making it a more classic “Hand of God” breaker. With exceptional gloveside command, the new sweeper separated itself from his classic big curve, giving him a legit whiff option against RHB and improving the rest of his arsenal in the process. He had thrown the pitch just 6% of the time vs RHB in his first 12 starts (even completely axing it from his arsenal for the final five starts of that stretch), but he leaned on it 34% of the time vs RHB in his three previous starts.
The strikeout success reached new heights against Baltimore on Saturday, as Lambert went 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 10 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 104 pitches (ND). That’s a career-high 10 Ks and his fifth start in his last eight with one or fewer earned runs (2.31 ERA in that time). Given the run-up to this start, you’d have to assume that the sweeper played a huge factor in keying this career-best outing. Nope!
The breaker was thrown just seven times, but it wasn’t a product of his lack of trust in the pitch. He threw it 23% of the time to RHB, but he faced just eight RHB the entire game. This was an outing of four-seamers dominating LHB, as they racked up nine whiffs and 52% CSW in dominant fashion.
The heater was the big draw in his first two starts of the year, as he sat 95+ mph. He’s fallen to 93-94 as the season has worn on, but it’s maintained a decent shape with 18″ iVB and 0.7 HAVAA. That doesn’t necessarily account for its best performance of the year on Friday, and it’s difficult to pinpoint why it performed so well. Maybe it was just the precision of the pitch upstairs in concert with changeups low or armside and sliders gloveside. Maybe it’s because Orioles LHB have struggled against four-seamers this year. Maybe the stars aligned.
Regardless of the sustainability of his fastball performance or this double-digit strikeout dominance (fueled by an unsustainable 67% putaway rate), Lambert has proven capable of deploying a deep arsenal with weapons to take down both handedness and a degree of whiffability worth chasing in standard leagues. To put it more simply – with @CHW, TEX, @SDP coming up, I’d be grabbing him everywhere. The ceiling is enticing, and he’s demonstrated a stable floor throughout the year. Go out and earn your rightful Holly label! (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Friday:
Landen Roupp (SFG) @ SEA (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 97 pitches.
Seven shutout innings is cool and all, but it’d be great if you didn’t scare us so much in the process. What? I’m not allowed to quote scary movies anymore? You’re not allowed to throw 53% strikes on changeups and sinkers, induce just five whiffs, walk more than you strike out, and get away with 17 outs on 19 balls in play. Leave some luck for the rest of us. (View Game Card)
Chris Sale (ATL) vs TEX (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 89 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. What can’t this guy do? (View Game Card)
Reid Detmers (LAA) vs DET (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 86 pitches.
I guess Detmers wasn’t completely cooked after allowing five runs in three of his last four starts. His slider command is still intact, and four-seamers didn’t get crushed. The latter might be a product of curveballs stepping up for 50% CSW and 70% strikes, keeping batters honest and preventing them from hunting heaters. This could just be a Dennis if he doesn’t maintain the three keys to success we saw on Friday. (View Game Card)
Jake Bennett (BOS) vs TBR (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 65 pitches.
Sick first name, dude. And? You want more? Fine. Bennett actually didn’t look his best here, throwing a trio of fastball variants 77% of the time despite sitting 1-2 ticks down across the board. Without his changeup leading the way, he struggled to miss bats. Of course, he couldn’t be stopped, though, as his precise locations yielded 69% weak contact and 15/16 outs on balls in play. That’s unsustainable, and we haven’t seen Bennett show off his strikeout potential often, suggesting this is more of a Vargas Rule than a breakout. I don’t care. We still start him vs BAL next after he’s pitched to a 1.17 ERA across his last six starts. We’ll see how good he really is with Sacré Verde and @LAD afterward. (View Game Card)
Roki Sasaki (LAD) @ NYY (ND) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 94 pitches.
The All-Star Break really treated Sasaki nicely because he returned pumping 100 mph. Yes, the man was sitting triple-digits with his heater (+3.5 ticks from 2025) while finding an extra tick on everything else. All he had to do was get his pitches near the zone to overwhelm the Bronx Bombers. Four-seamers, splitters, and sliders induced at least five whiffs apiece, showcasing dominance throughout his arsenal. We’ve seen him fluctuate in both performance and stuff throughout the year, so we can’t go all in right away, but I’ve been enamored with Sasaki when he’s at his best. If he’s throwing 100 regularly, he’s going to be someone worth rostering everywhere. It’s up to you if you want to take the risk on this Double Bubble. (View Game Card)
Michael McGreevy (STL) @ ARI (ND) – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 94 pitches.
Next stop: Ground Ball City! McGreevy works full-time in the metropolis. Perched atop a mound of dirt, he types away at his desk, hoping that one day someone will notice his hard work. Those are some pristine ratios, Mike! Thanks, Oli! Took me all night to get that ERA under 3.00. Did you do something different with your hair? Nope! Just took a nice vacation for the All-Star Break and returned throwing a tick harder. Keep up the hard work, boss! Who are you calling boss, manager? (View Game Card)
Sandy Alcantara (MIA) @ MIL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 104 pitches.
Alcantara is still going heavy on the trio of fastball variants and making things work. None of them eclipsed 60% strikes, explaining the barbershop quartet of walks. It’s cool to see the changeup return 64% strikes, but it wasn’t located well enough to be able to say it’s back to being the support offering it needs to be to make Sandy feel stable. Cementy Alcantara is much more stable. I’m glad I get to blame the italics guy for that joke and not the guy who wrote it. (View Game Card)
Seth Lugo (KCR) vs SDP (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 90 pitches.
Every time I give up on Lugo, he figures something out to produce a decent start. What did he figure out this time? How to get on the good side of Koufax. 13 outs on 16 balls in play is about as fortunate as it gets. Don’t expect that to stick. With just 6/20 starts coming with double-digit whiffs (topping out at 11), Lugo is way too reliant on batted balls finding gloves to find consistent success. May the whims of Koufax be in your favor. (View Game Card)
Troy Melton (DET) @ LAA (ND) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 9 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 94 pitches.
Melton just keeps one-upping himself. I had been unimpressed with his strikeout ability before he set a season-high strikeout total in three consecutive starts, culminating in a career-high nine last time out. What did he do here? Match that total while inducing a season-high whiff total en route to a Golden Goal. Still sitting a tick up across the board, with the strikeout ceiling to support his pristine ratios, he’s Melton his opposition’s bats. (View Game Card)
Logan Henderson (MIL) vs MIA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 73 pitches.
The case of the missing velocity has been solved. As for Henderson’s four-seamer vert, most of it has been recovered. He was at 17″ instead of the 18-19″ we saw at his peak, but that’ll do at 93+ mph with elite 2.0 HAVAA. Changeups and cutters weren’t pristine, as he’s still shaking off the rust. With an easy schedule of NYM and @SFG ahead, we should see him back to inducing double-digit whiffs in no time. (View Game Card)
Michael King (SDP) @ KCR (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 97 pitches.
This King hasn’t been crowned, but I removed his TIARA after he took down the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. His volatile cross-body mechanics have prevented him from exhibiting the four-quadrant command he has at his peak, but at least he’s throwing enough strikes to keep him in at-bats while finding the feel for his secondaries. Changeups had been the x-factor in recent starts, but it was his sweeper that caught Simon Cowell’s eye in this one. The pitch found the zone plenty, inducing four whiffs, all coming against RHB. That’s nothing too special until you realize he hadn’t induced a sweeper whiff in four starts and hadn’t eclipsed two sweeper whiffs since May 7th. If one of his secondaries arrives @ATL next, he should survive before getting respite with Rockie Road afterward. (View Game Card)
Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs STL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 87 pitches.
There’s a joke about Kelly and Toby somewhere in here. Maybe it’s in the customer service department. (View Game Card)
Brady Singer (CIN) @ COL (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 96 pitches.
The Red Rocks echoed the sounds of Singer’s ballad, as he took down the Rockies in Coors. His slider was the star of the show, inducing 11 whiffs, while sinkers stole nine called strikes with four whiffs of their own. He’s still not relying on a third offering enough to have me endorsing him, but the command of his one-two punch has been gorgeous recently, producing a 2.76 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 24% K% across his last eight starts. He’ll find his way into the questionable start tier more often as a result. (View Game Card)
Cade Cavalli (WSN) @ ATH (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 95 pitches.
C’mon Cade! I’m going on vacation with your family next week. I can’t go into that telling them about how your pitch usage is frustrating me to no end! Why can’t you just tell them I’ve been pitching great and fanned nine batters on Friday? To be completely honest, all they’re going to want to talk about is your spat with Willson Contreras. Fair…that was a lowlight for me. You wanna know how to make everyone forget about that? More than anything. Throw your best pitch more often! I hate seeing your signature curve at 15% usage. But I could only throw it for strikes half of the time. And it still led your arsenal with five whiffs and three strikeouts! I felt more comfortable throwing sweepers anyway. They returned just 55% strikes…What happened to your new cutter? I….sort of forgot about it. That makes sense. You only threw it eight times, with six of them coming in the fourth. Here’s my proposal: 35% four-seamers, 30% curveballs, 15% cutters, 10% sweepers, 10% sinkers. I mean….we haven’t even met. Don’t make me get your parents involved! (View Game Card)
Gerrit Cole (NYY) vs LAD (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 103 pitches.
The GC is poppin off! What are they saying? Cole’s back, baby! Do they know what they’re talking about? There’s some merit to their excitement. Cole had all of his pitches working, inducing multiple whiffs with all four of them. He also came out of the All-Star Break with extra velocity. Other than that, I’m not ready to start planning his Coronation Day. His command was far from exceptional. 13 four-seamer called strikes and 10/13 outs on balls in play made all the difference. I do love seeing increased slider usage against LHB, but until I see him pulling off a more apparent BSB with sliders landing low and gloveside, I can’t pronounce Cole is King. (View Game Card)
Bryce Miller (SEA) vs SFG (L) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 91 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. We’re not out of the woods yet. Miller is still sitting a tick down across the board. Is it the unresolved bone spurs, or is he just returning to the baseline he’s been at throughout his career? I think I’m in the latter boat, and I think that means Miller will still be awesome, but maybe not AGA awesome. He got a punchless Giants lineup that had no chance against him, regardless of how hard he was throwing. I find it a bit odd that with reduced velo, he decided to lean on four-seamers 56% of the time. You’d think he’d try to mask it by expanding his arsenal. (View Game Card)
Gabriel Hughes (COL) vs CIN (L) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 82 pitches.
Hughes has been surprisingly successful in the early part of his career. He debuted with a scoreless, three-inning save in Coors, followed that up with a PQS @LAD in his first career start, then turned in this solid outing in his first career start at home. I don’t believe that a pitcher with a repertoire led by a low-90s cutter-like “four-seamer” will consistently get the job done in Coors, but it’s dope to see him do it a couple of times. (View Game Card)
Bailey Ober (MIN) @ CHC (W) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 88 pitches.
How low can you go? Ober’s velo was down even further, as he sat 87.4 mph on his “heater”. There’s no way that’s sneaking by any big league bats, and yet, it induced four whiffs. I’m aware that his seven feet of extension makes a big difference in its perceived velo, and he did a great job of locating it upstairs, but I refuse to believe Ober will survive throwing this slow for much longer. Just take your Gold Star and go enjoy your weekend. (View Game Card)
Anthony Kay (CHW) @ TOR (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 83 pitches.
It’s gonna be hard to complete five frames efficiently when you throw sub-60% overall strikes. Kay could be worth the stream @TEX next, but his lack of command here suggests we should only trust him if we’re desperate. (View Game Card)
Dean Kremer (BAL) @ HOU (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 83 pitches.
Kremer pitched more like Alice Cullen than a Werewolf. (View Game Card)
Colin Rea (CHC) vs MIN (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 91 pitches.
A PQS is about as Toby as it gets for this Rea-liable streamer. (View Game Card)
Gage Jump (ATH) vs WSN (L) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 87 pitches.
My concerns about Jump pitching in Sacré Verde have turned out to be founded. He’s failed to complete five frames in his last three starts at home, pitching to a 10.32 ERA in that span. Two of those starts came against the mighty Dodgers and the lefty-killing Nationals, but the worst of them all came at the hands of the light-hitting Marlins, so we can’t just blame it on the opponent. Maybe we just don’t start him at home moving forward. (View Game Card)
Eduardo Rivera (BOS) vs TBR (ND) – 2.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 64 pitches.
Rivera opened in a bullpen game for the Red Sox. He’s got great stuff but zero idea where it’s going. Don’t expect him to stretch out further than this. (View Game Card)
Mason Englert (TBR) @ BOS (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 88 pitches.
A nine-strikeout performance last time out got us wondering about Englert’s potential. The Rays get the most out of everyone. They also got the most runs out of him on Friday. His changeup and curveball were still pretty dope, but his underwhelming heaters were no match for the Red Sox, as they tagged them for six hits and a pair of homers. With only the one outlier start to point to when finding a reason to stream Englert, I’d suggest we better stay away until further notice. He’s not even guaranteed another start. He was the 27th man in Friday’s doubleheader, so he’s back to the minors after this. (View Game Card)
Cal Quantrill (TEX) @ ATL (L) – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 11 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 86 pitches.
You’ve been Quantrillfied as not very good! (View Game Card)
Spencer Miles (TOR) vs CHW (L) – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 60 pitches.
This was…one of the starts that happened on Friday. (View Game Card)
Griffin Jax (TBR) @ BOS (L) – 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 85 pitches.
Don’t give up on Jax! He still has A+ stuff, induced 15 whiffs, and was allowed to exceed 80 pitches. This was all poor batted ball luck. Thanks a lot, Koufax. Six of the eight hits he allowed were singles. The other two? Both off the bat of Masataka Yoshida. One, a squibbed double down the line. The other, a pesky pole home run. It doesn’t get more unfortunate than that. Buy low if you can! (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Bryan Woo vs. Logan Webb – Woo should be great at home, and I’m looking for Webb to bounce back in a big way.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
