Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Monday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Dean Kremer (MIN) vs BAL (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 89 pitches.
I’m not sure how much y’all put stock into “Revenge Games”, but we should at least know that Dean Kremer gets amped for them. He had his best outing in a long while as he hosted his former squad in Minnesota, boasting 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 89 pitches (W) after disappointing many fantasy managers since returning to the bump. Normally I’d tell you Kremer is a Werewolf and not worth your time, but this may be different.
Yes, his increased velocity to 93/94 mph with 19″ of vert (not 17″+) is likely due to the extra emotion of facing his former squad, but if the splitter and cutter perform as well as they did here, it won’t matter. Kremer featured a 70%+ strike rate on all three of his main offerings (four-seamer, splitter, and cutter), with the splitty doing fantastic work along the edges to LHB, and the cutter staying away to RHB. This is how Kremer has soared in the past and I wouldn’t be surprised if this jolted him for a strong run ahead with vs. PHI and @SDP in front of him.
He’s a clear 15-teamer hold at the moment, and I’d even throw in that his Sunday start against the Phillies could return dividends for those searching for a H2H Win at the last moment. This is Dean’s cream of the crop. Let’s enjoy it. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:
Michael Soroka (ARI) vs COL (ND) – 4.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 77 pitches.
Soroka had his Still ILL start and couldn’t quite make it through five frames for a productive betrayal of the rules. The biggest factor for Soroka’s success is locating his curveball, which he failed miserably with a 48% strike rate, and without that hook at his hip for any situation, I’m not interested in starting him against Atlanta. Hosting the Reds and heading to Oracle Park after? Yeah, he should be good to go by then. (View Game Card)
Jameson Taillon (TOR) vs BOS (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 61 pitches.
Ugh. He was feeling great and finally getting comfortable in a rotation this year, pitching like he wanted to, until he felt forearm tightness and left the game. Now he’s slated for an MRI and you gotta have sympathy for the fella. What a stupid year. (View Game Card)
Reid Detmers (LAA) vs TEX (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 88 pitches.
I was worried about his 92+ mph velocity last game and I’m thrilled to report 94 mph in this one. Throw in a good feel for his slider (22% SwStr rate and 68% strikes) and a little extra effort from the changeup, and Detmers will take down a questionable offense even when his four-seamer isn’t consistent. All good here. (View Game Card)
Blade Tidwell (SFG) vs HOU (ND) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 96 pitches.
As much as I want to be stoked about this Gold Star, you must understand that Tidwell’s best pitch is a sweeper. The Astros did him a favor with a heavy-RHB lineup that swung incessantly at the pitch off the plate, leading to 12/39 whiffs that simply wouldn’t happen if faced more LHB. It became an approach of his mediocre fastballs earning all the called strikes (36% on four-seamers alone is bananas) with the sweeper doing the rest, and it doesn’t seem repeatable against a typical lineup, especially a LHB-focused one. But it’s Rockie Road next! In Oracle Park! Hmmmm. Fine. I don’t blame you for giving that a shot, but this sure doesn’t look like a second half breakout yet. (View Game Card)
MacKenzie Gore (TEX) @ LAA (ND) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 22 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 103 pitches.
A Golden Goal from Gore with a glistening line like this sure feels like he’s back. That makes it sound like he’s not back. He’s not back. OH COME ON. This was “The Changeup Game”. The Angels could not handle this thing in the slightest, whiffing 12 times across the 22 Gore threw. That’s a 55% SwStr rate, y’all. I don’t think of Gore as a ridiculous changeup arm and I don’t think that’s how we’ll think of him at the end of the year, either, but if he is, then I sure hope his four-seamer can do better than a 53% strike rate in the future. Let’s say the four-seamer feel is a bit better next time out. If he has this changeup for RHB and the same slider for LHB (fantastic locations down-and-away to LHB at 91 mph), then yes, I’ll buy it. But this was such an extreme from what we normally see, and telling me that he’ll have the same feel for his changeup despite heading to Sacré Verde in his next start is such a tough sell. (View Game Card)
Hunter Dobbins (STL) vs PHI (L) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 97 pitches.
His last outing was all kinds of interesting with a new cut-fastball at 95 mph and painting the edges with all of his pitches to LHB and RHB alike. This was…different. He was down to 93 mph and that precision was nowhere to be found. It could have been the sweltering 92-degree weather, it could have been a single awesome start last week that he’ll always dream of replicating. It makes me out on Dobbins for now with Wrigley ahead, but if the skills return, I’d consider jumping in for @PHI and hosting the Orioles. He’s a decent add for deeper formats. (View Game Card)
Jacob Lopez (ATH) vs TBR (ND) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 93 pitches.
He’s cooking, y’all. Last year’s stellar summer run came with a near 2.00 ERA and 30%+ strikeout rate. Across his last five, JLo now has a 2.36 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 29% strikeout rate. He even adjusted here, in a game where the four-seamer and cutter responsibilities flipped – the cutter struggled to find strikes, so the heater had to get in the zone more often (despite allowing a solo shot on the second pitch of his night). The sweeper was dastardly down low as we’ve seen, and with the fastball/cutter still working above it, I’m rolling him out there until this is clearly donezo, especially with vs. TEX, @HOU, vs. MIN on the docket. (View Game Card)
Casey Mize (SDP) vs MIL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 83 pitches.
Hmmmm. The velocity was below 93 mph again at 92.8 mph (not 94 mph) and the slider command wasn’t sharp, while the splitter was nothing like it needs to be. I’m glad this worked out, it just weirds me out, you know? At least it’s much better than his last outing, and I hope a date with the Guardians will have me pump my fist. That said, he’ll need to grab a machete and go exploring for that splitter before then. (View Game Card)
Sonny Gray (BOS) @ TOR (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 99 pitches.
The results were Sonny, the performance was Gray. His sweeper was barely involved (29% usage in two-strike counts?!) with just 1/18 whiffs is frustrating, and the rest of the arsenal wasn’t delicately spotted as they lofted over the plate. Blame it on the Blue Jays here, while we exhale a sigh of relief seeing great matchups against the Pirates, Giants, and Marlins ahead. (View Game Card)
Andrew Painter (PHI) @ STL (W) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 93 pitches.
I was jazzed by his lack of heaters and changeup introduction in his return to the bigs, hated his last start with more heaters and poor changeups, and this was in between the two. 30% fastballs isn’t ideal, and despite a high strike rate, his changeup command was a far cry from the precision two weeks ago. He needs that slowball to give me confidence he can take down LHB, while the sweeper and slider are doing their job to RHB often enough. It’s…fine. Not a terrible stream against the Twins on Sunday and I think you take it from there.
Noah Cameron (KCR) @ LAD (ND) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 101 pitches.
He was so close. A Careful, Icarus via two inherited runners scoring in a frame he nearly got out of, and he’s still throwing much better than he was a month ago. It wasn’t the greatest performance (two strikeouts?!), and yet, it was the Dodgers. I’m not sure how many of you were starting him here at all, and now you’ll let him fly with a good schedule ahead. (View Game Card)
Trevor Rogers (BAL) @ MIN (L) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 79 pitches.
Rogers featured 95 mph velocity with a good breaker and 79 pitches looks strange. Let me direct you to a pair of HBP in the fourth and a 31% strike rate on his changeup. Yikes. It wasn’t erratic, just calibrated too low with an 13% zone rate and low 21% chase rate, and I’d expect a fix for next game. Please don’t drop this with 2x Rays + Cards up next. (View Game Card)
Hayden Wesneski (HOU) @ SFG (ND) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 83 pitches.
It’s a fine result, but it’s not as convincing as I thought it would be, dripping with Blame it on the Giants. Wesneski featured textbook command across his arsenal originally, and this was a bit all over the place. The sweeper will still have success to RHB, but doesn’t do enough to LHB, and the rest of the arsenal is pretty blegh. He could do well in Houston against the Mariners and Athletics, though it feels more of a 15-team play than 12-teamers, unless you believe this start was a somewhat off-day for Wesneski. (View Game Card)
Logan Henderson (MIL) @ SDP (L) – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 91 pitches.
He’s on his path toward Coronation Day and two terrible middle-middle changeups led to all three runs via the longball. So it goes. The Dodgers and Atlanta are ahead, and if he’s productive in both, the AGA tag will be his. (View Game Card)
Freddy Peralta (TBR) @ ATH (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 98 pitches.
Ayyyy, more changeups! I expected the Rays to lean into the slowball with Peralta and we’ve seen a 10-15% point jump in the pitch to be LHB and RHB thus far. Now with the “Green Mile” out of the way, hopefully he can get more strikes with the changeup, which may be as simple as getting his four-seamer upstairs again where the two can tunnel better. I’m down for his next one in the Trop, his first as a Ray, where his four-seamer should thrive upstairs. This could work. (View Game Card)
Tarik Skubal (LAD) vs KCR (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 95 pitches.
Aces gonna be kinda mid for the Dodgers. Some questionable sequencing to Jac that ended with a mistake slider down Broadway led to a two-run shot, but overall, it’s Skubs. (View Game Card)
Christian Scott (NYM) @ ATL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 82 pitches.
I wish Scott had the ability to feature something down in the zone, too. The splitter and curveball were barely touched and the sweeper not only has a bit more lift than ideal, but Scott struggles to keep it out of the upper third of the zone, where a velvet rope tried to keep it private for his Canibal McSanchez approach with his cutter and four-seamer. The good news? He’s doing a great job with those two and against a weaker team, this could have been better. I don’t expect him to soar until he figures out this last piece. (View Game Card)
Bryce Elder (ATL) vs NYM (L) – 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 10 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 105 pitches.
He was bamboozled for five runs in the first with some poor luck and a grand slam, but it’s not like he pitched great after that, either. It’s not a surprise to see this fall apart again, though I won’t be absolutist and tell you he can’t laugh in the face of us nerds and spin a six-inning gem again. (View Game Card)
Gabriel Hughes (COL) @ ARI (L) – 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 88 pitches.
Womp womp. Hughes had great command with his cut-fastball against the Nationals and it simply hasn’t returned since. One day. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Paul Skenes vs. Eury Pérez – Now this is some fun baseball. But Blake Snell is making his season debut! Sure. I’m also not expecting him to go long. This is way more fun.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo courtesy of Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X)
