Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Wednesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Kyle Leahy (STL) vs PHI (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 81 pitches.
Kyle Leahy appears to have turned a corner. As we got our first look at him this season, we saw a pitcher with a great arsenal but without the command to take full advantage of it. The righty pitched to a 4.63 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, and a 19% strikeout rate through his first 14 starts. Things are different now.
Hosting the Phillies, Leahy continued what has been an impressive hot streak, which culminated in 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 81 pitches (W). Across his last nine starts, Leahy has posted a 1.52 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and a 25% strikeout rate, emerging as a starter worthy of attention in the majority of fantasy leagues.
Whenever a pitcher performs differently than their established baseline, we always ask the same questions. Has anything changed? What’s changed? Will the changes stick? Is this level of performance sustainable? The answer is always nuanced, but that’s what the Roundup’s for!
Leahy already had great stuff, so we already knew he had the potential to succeed in the Majors, but given the fact that he didn’t succeed with his great stuff previously, we have to see concrete changes to believe in his new level. On the surface, there haven’t been notable changes to his pitch mix or his strikeout indicators, like swinging strike rate (+1% to 11%). Maybe the 3% increase in strike rate to an overall 65% mark accounts for the 3% decrease in his walk rate to 5%. It lines up with a 3% increase in his zone rate, which suggests that, even if he doesn’t have better command, his control, or ability to find the zone, has improved.
Now, that’s not enough to account for the three-run drop in ERA. As is typically the case, players need to get pretty lucky to go on runs like this. Leahy has been smiled upon by Koufax during his hot streak. Checking his HOTEL, Leahy’s BABIP has dropped from .346 to .282, his HR/FB ratio has dropped from 13% to 7%, and his LOB% has risen from 77% to 91%. He’s also reached two strikes 6% more often and put away 8% more batters. That’s clearly a change in fortune, suggesting that not all of his success has been earned.
We’re still leaving out the best part: some of his success is deserved. Leahy’s been throwing harder. Not by much, but enough to believe that the 13% increase in his weak contact rate might be a product of his pitches being more difficult to square up. Four-seamers and sinkers are sitting closer to 95 mph, changeups closer to 89 mph, and curveballs closer to 84 mph. Only sliders and sweepers have experienced a velo increase of less than 0.7 mph (+0.1 and +0.2 mph, respectively). With top-of-the-line 7.3′ of extension, any bit of extra heat plays up that much more.
On Wednesday, Leahy once again relied heavily on favorable contact results, as he induced single-digit whiffs for the fifth time during his nine-start hot streak. The six strikeouts were once again a product of increased two-strike (60%) and putaway (50%) rates above his season-long baselines. None of his pitches were located with any noticeable intent. He found the zone often and lived to tell the tale.
I don’t expect that to be the case often moving forward. His stuff is great, but without command improvements, it’s hard to believe that a slight uptick in velocity could account for the weakened quality of contact and produce such a drastic improvement in his ratios, while the additional strikeouts are fully a product of unsustainable efficiency in an increased amount of two-strike counts. Leahy hasn’t shaken the PEAS label, but we’ll continue to roll with this Vargas Rule even as his schedule heats up. @CIN, @PHI, vs PIT may be a tough enough gauntlet to break him out of his rhythm, but it’s worth taking the chance based on the recent results. Just be ready to jump ship as soon as the flowers start to wilt. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Wednesday:
Luis Castillo (CHW) vs CIN (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 22 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 104 pitches.
This isn’t just a product of new threads, as Castillo struggled in his first impression with the White Sox. He locked in his command (his typical route to success) to turn in his best start of the year. With four-seamers and sinkers living upstairs, changeups falling below the zone to LHB, and pristine slider locations low and away to RHB, Castillo earned the Golden Goal with a season-high 22 whiffs and 10 strikeouts. If he could command like this every time, he’d be dope, but it hasn’t been a skill he’s proven to possess consistently. He’ll have to prove he can maintain this feel @CHC next before I can consider him for NYM and @MIN afterward. (View Game Card)
Adrian Houser (SFG) vs HOU (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BB, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 73 pitches.
Houser has excelled since getting moved to the bullpen at the end of June. This was actually his first start back in the rotation, but it continued a stretch of 10 outings during which he’s pitched to a 1.70 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP. The strikeouts still aren’t there (16% K%), but that’s not something Houser’s ever provided. He doesn’t really need the fancy Ks if he’s sitting 96 mph as he did on Wednesday (and throughout the hot streak). That velo allows his fastball to live in the zone and avoid damage, leading to more weak contact and plenty of outs on balls in play. He won’t keep up the .204 BABIP the rest of the way, but we don’t need him to have a sub-2.00 ERA to remain interested. He should be rostered in deeper leagues and is a streaming Toby in standard leagues @CLE next. (View Game Card)
Tatsuya Imai (HOU) @ SFG (L) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 55 pitches.
Bryan King opened, setting Imai up for a second consecutive outing of a trio of scoreless frames. I’m not sold that seeing him come out of the bullpen makes me any more confident in him than when he would start games. He hasn’t seen the corresponding increase in velo you hope for when a starter transitions to the bullpen. In leagues where your starts are limited, and bulk relievers are basically free points, by all means, send him out there at will. It’s not worth the blowup potential in standard leagues. (View Game Card)
Dustin May (MIL) @ SDP (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 83 pitches.
The Brewers are having May lean into his cutter more and cut back on four-seamers. It’s a smart development, as the cutter at 93 mph overwhelms both handedness and allows the four-seamer to act as a surprise putaway pitch upstairs (if May could get it there). The primary fastball dominated with eight whiffs, 40% CSW, and 70% strikes, splitting the zone with sinkers vs RHB and jamming LHB. It’s not my favorite thing to see reduced velo and diminished movement across the board, but it doesn’t seem to have affected May’s ability to dominate. I love his new home, and I expect him to be a reliable Holly the rest of the way. (View Game Card)
Eric Lauer (LAD) vs KCR (W) – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 112 pitches.
Lauer got us our dub and piqued our interest in the process with 1-2 extra ticks across the board. Was this his attempt at securing his role in the rotation? I don’t think he’ll keep it now that Blake Snell has returned and Tyler Glasnow is on the way. This sure looks like the Dodgers having him empty the tank with 112 pitches before they move him to the bullpen. Regardless, if he sticks around for another week, he heads to Coors, and that’s not a start I’m interested in. (View Game Card)
Tyler Mahle (ATL) vs NYM (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 93 pitches.
Mahle’s making quite the first impression in Atlanta. That’s two six-inning starts with one or fewer runs while racking up 16 strikeouts. The 93-94 mph velocity that got us interested in the first place and supported his recent improvements was nowhere to be found. Mahle sat in 92-93, hitting 94 mph just once. That’s not a good sign. His command made up for it with four-seamers living upstairs and everything landing away to RHB, while splitters dominated LHB downstairs. He’ll head to Minnesota next, and that’s not an intimidating enough start for me to avoid without the velocity, but if it’s missing again there, we have to let him go. (View Game Card)
Janson Junk (MIA) vs PIT (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BB, 2 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 81 pitches.
It’s impressive how someone with such great stuff can struggle so much to miss bats. That’s 10 straight starts with single-digit whiffs, and a combined five whiffs across his last three starts. The weirdest part is that he’s been able to remain decently successful through it all. Similar to Leahy, his stuff is good enough that it’s difficult to hit, despite paying monthly rent to live in the zone. It produces enough weak contact (70% on Wednesday) that he deserves some of the fortunate batted-ball results. I can’t put the fate of my fantasy in the hands of someone so reliant on contact. (View Game Card)
José Soriano (TOR) vs BOS (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 90 pitches.
The improved defense behind Soriano in his new home north of the border is a godsend for a ground ball pitcher. He returned 12 outs on 15 balls in play thanks to 50% grounders, with the only damage coming against him on a solo shot by Willson Contreras off a hung curve that ended a nine-pitch battle. That curveball will be the key to unlocking his long-dormant strikeout potential, but it’ll need to do better than 54% strikes to get him there. After being deployed more often than ever in his Blue Jays debut, they flipped the script and threw curveballs at his lowest mark of the season. Pick a side! I love the fastball locations here, and his splitter command was great, but I just wonder what Toronto will change to get the most out of him. (View Game Card)
Foster Griffin (CLE) @ DET (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BB, 3 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 83 pitches.
The heights of June and July are in the rearview mirror. Griffin is now finding his kitchen sinker much more hittable, making him heavily reliant on the new teammates positioned behind him. He’s been unable to miss bats without his peak velocity or command. Cutters aren’t jamming RHB, changeups aren’t landing low, and four-seamers are failing to turn this into a Canibal McSanchez. He’s looking a lot more like a Toby than the elite Holly he was in the middle of the summer. (View Game Card)
Cal Quantrill (TEX) @ LAA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 85 pitches.
He’s not called the Unquatrillfiable for nothing! I literally have no idea what to do with him. There’s no reason to believe that his splitter-heavy approach will lead to many more starts like this, but he keeps one-upping himself. It was a season-high six punchouts on Wednesday, as he rode his splitty to eight whiffs and four strikeouts thanks to a 60% overall putaway rate. Is Nathan Eovaldi ready to come back soon? (View Game Card)
Ranger Suarez (BOS) @ TOR (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BB, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 81 pitches.
The park ranger is back in that little booth where they make you pay to go see nature! You sound upset. Yeah, maybe not the best analogy. Regardless, Suarez seems safe to trust now that he’s exceeded 80 pitches and is commanding effectively. The whiffs should come as he continues to recover the feel for his arsenal that eluded him upon his return from injury. (View Game Card)
Mason Black (KCR) @ LAD (ND) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 K – 2 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 44 pitches.
Daniel Lynch IV opened with 2.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 39 pitches (L). I’m not a fan of the Royals moving Lynch back to the rotation after all his struggles there and all his success in the bullpen this year. It worked with Kris Bubic last year, but I don’t trust the Royals’ pitching development. Nor their manager’s bullpen usage, but you really don’t want to get me started on that. As for Black, he went 2/44 whiffs against the Dodgers and doesn’t appear to be trusted to throw more than 50 pitches (has done so just once in 14 outings). Lynch is replacing him as a bulk option, and it’ll only be a matter of time before he’s completely stretched out and without the need for a follower. (View Game Card)
George Klassen (LAA) vs TEX (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BB, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 87 pitches.
Klassen walked 14 batters in his first three big-league starts, but he finally found enough of the zone on Wednesday to show what his great stuff is capable of. With 73% strikes coming on four-seamers and sliders, he didn’t need much help from his changeup. There wasn’t much of an approach, though, other than fill up the zone with the one-two punch and land changeups away from LHB. That game plan could work, but it will make him homer-prone as he looks to keep pitches out of the heart of the zone. This could work in deeper leagues, and I’m not opposed to taking a chance in Houston next. (View Game Card)
Rhett Lowder (CIN) @ CHW (L) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BB, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 94 pitches.
Rhett and Link Lowder is a prototypical Toby who can take down bottom-half offenses. The White Sox are ranked 15th in wRC+ vs RHP. This was about as borderline as it gets, and Lowder made it work, though it was a bit of a Dusty Donut with eight baserunners. It would’ve been nice if he earned a win, too. You don’t sound very happy about this. I mean, this is what we should expect from a low-level Toby. It won’t blow your socks off, but it’s got some benefits to it. Like coconut water? Exactly like that. (View Game Card)
Drew Rasmussen (TBR) @ ATH (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BB, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 84 pitches.
Aces gonna survive Sacré Verde despite sitting 1-2 ticks down and struggling to miss bats. Hard to complain with the results. We just wish he had a few more strikeouts. Make sure you’re streaming your high-upside setup men to make up for starts like these throughout the week. Rick would be so proud if he could see me right now. (View Game Card)
Ryan Feltner (COL) @ ARI (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 93 pitches.
Feltner was freed from Coors and had the mediocre performance we expected from him. The Colorado triple-whammy is rough. One, you have to pitch in Denver. Two, there’s a hangover effect even when you leave the altitude. Three, the Rockies’ pitching development fails to maximize your potential. There’s hope that the new front office can work on changing those narratives. (View Game Card)
Robbie Ray (SDP) vs MIL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 84 pitches.
Welcome to the torture show, Padres fans. Giants fans are used to it, having experienced the high-anxiety ninth innings Brian Wilson put them through during the three-peat dynasty, and they got reintroduced to it with Ray’s high-wire walk act. At least the Padres are looking to combat his stressful ways, and Ray is executing the game plan. Sliders away at 61% usage to LHB, with changeups away to RHB at 46% usage. He’s pulling that off with surprisingly great command, but he’s still throwing sinkers more often than four-seamers to RHB (??) and issued a trio of 3-2 walks. That’s eight walks across his first nine innings with the Padres. He’ll need to improve his 27% putaway rate to finish off at-bats and find the efficiency to allow him to reach the sixth frame. (View Game Card)
Zac Thornton (NYM) @ ATL (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BB, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 80 pitches.
It’s still just cutters and four-seamers with minimal assistance from sliders. Thornton found enough outs in play to record a PQS, but everyone not in quality start leagues is complaining about this outing. He’s had just one start with double-digit whiffs, and I don’t see a path to Thornton producing a ceiling worth chasing. (View Game Card)
David Peterson (CHC) @ WSN (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 90 pitches.
Peterson’s command has been massively improved since being dealt, and I love his situation as a Toby in front of baseball’s best defense, but it didn’t come together here. The southpaw got Singled Out despite that elite defense behind him. This should be better vs CHW next as long as Peterson maintains his newfound ability to get great pitch separation on a five-pitch mix. (View Game Card)
Jackson Kent (WSN) vs CHC (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 5 BBs, 6 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 78 pitches.
This was Kent’s MLB debut, and while it didn’t go well, I could see him figuring it out in due time. He displayed a poorly shaped 92-93 mph four-seamer that plays up thanks to elite seven feet of extension. He paired it with an effective slider to LHB, a dope changeup to RHB, and a curveball looking to steal called strikes. It’s a recipe that’s got SWATCH written all over it. As long as he rids himself of the debut jitters and throws more than 47% overall strikes, Kent should become relevant, akin to the likes of Jake Bennett and Ian Seymour. (View Game Card)
Framber Valdez (DET) vs CLE (L) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 102 pitches.
The high four-seamers were a one-start blip. Valdez is back to going sinker-heavy, with curveballs acting as the x-factor. The hook was fine, but despite throwing 63% overall strikes, Valdez struggled to wrangle his control all game. He walked the leadoff hitter, plunked the third batter, walked a batter in each of the fourth and fifth, before issuing two more free passes in the sixth. We’ve seen him post high walk rates in the past, but rarely has it come without the elite stretch of starts that makes him worth rostering for a whole season. He’s running out of time to make that happen, and I’d be looking elsewhere in standard leagues. (View Game Card)
Zack Wheeler (PHI) @ STL (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BB, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 84 pitches.
Aces gonna continue to make us anxious. That’s a 7.63 ERA across his last four starts, as Wheeler’s velocity has fluctuated between averaging 93.5 and 95.3, a range that is well below the 96+ we see from him when he’s at his best. His command is still excellent, and this start can be blamed on a 38% LOB% and getting Singled Out in the 5th. I’m still sending him out there no questions asked against the Marlins, but I’d love for him to dominate so we can stop worrying about a potential injury. (View Game Card)
Zebby Matthews (MIN) vs BAL (W) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 94 pitches.
Matthews hasn’t given us many reasons to think about him other than to be jealous of his 80-grade first name. Unfortunately, his given name is Daniel. However, Zebulon is such a dope middle name. (View Game Card)
Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) @ MIA (L) – 2.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 K – 3 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 59 pitches.
With Mitch Keller on the IL, Mlodzinski is getting another shot in the rotation. I wasn’t a fan the first time, as his approach was heavily reliant on a volatile splitter. The slowball returned just 50% strikes, while the rest of his arsenal went sub-60% strikes. The whiffs aren’t there either, and there’s really nothing to get excited about. Let’s check back in when he’s increased his workload beyond 80 pitches. I doubt my opinion will change by then. (View Game Card)
Bryce Miller (SEA) @ NYY (ND) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BB, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 89 pitches.
Miller becoming a primary splitter pitcher wasn’t on my 2026 bingo card. I can’t say I’m a fan of it either. He’s supposed to be dominating with his beautifully shaped four-seamer and utilizing a wide swath of secondaries to prop it up. That hasn’t been the case, as Miller’s struggled without the elite velo with which he opened the season. There’s a silver lining that he returned to 96+ mph here for the first time since June, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s pitched to a 6.12 ERA and 15% strikeout rate across his last six starts. Those bone chips in his elbow might be a serious problem. (View Game Card)
Will Warren (NYY) vs SEA (ND) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 81 pitches.
Without a secondary pitch stepping up to support his declining fastballs, Warren’s experienced a precipitous decline. I expect him to head to the bullpen when Carlos Rodón returns to health. He’ll be a key member of the relief staff in the postseason, where this shallow Yankees arm barn gets pushed to its limits. (View Game Card)
Shane Baz (BAL) @ MIN (L) – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BB, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 65 pitches.
What the heck?! Baz lost two ticks of velo to sit 94 mph on his four-seamer. Let’s hope this was just a One Night Bland and not a sign of something wrong with Baz’s arm. His command was fine, but everything was too hittable, with batters not having to worry about being blown away by the fastball. (View Game Card)
Jack Perkins (ATH) vs TBR (L) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 12 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 97 pitches.
Perkins is a strikeout upside play that we avoid in Sacré Verde. This was in Sacramento, so we left him on our wires. Right? I needed the strikeouts! It’s not worth the threats he makes to your ratios. (View Game Card)
Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs COL (L) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 15% CSW, 71 pitches.
Are you good or are you bad? Kelly survived the Dodgers, then gets blown up by Rockie Road. If he’s that difficult to predict, is throwing 1-2 ticks slower, and has nothing to support his changeup, then I don’t think he’s worth rostering. Avoid @BOS next, but consider him a deep league Toby moving forward. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Logan Gilbert vs. Max Fried – A pair of aces square off. It doesn’t get much better than this.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
