Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup: Quick Maths

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Tuesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.

Zebby Matthews (MIN) vs KCR (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 77 pitches.

There was a fair amount of hype surrounding the MLB debut of Zebby Matthews and he didn’t disappoint, returning a solid 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 77 pitches performance against the Royals, securing a Win on his first day at the job.

The report coming in was glowing: five pitches, elite control, great feel on all of them, 95+ heaters, and whiffable breakers. That wasn’t quite what I saw yesterday, but it’s an MLB debut and it’s one of the worst starts to predict the future. After all, remember Paul Skenes‘ poor debut?

What I saw was an arm far more polished with his precision than what you get from the majority of rookie pitchers. Four-seamers found the edges, cutters at 91 mph hugged the gloveside edge to both LHB and RHB, and his slider fell down-and-gloveside consistently. Yes, there were your fair share of spiked sliders, horribly executed changeups, and mistake fastballs, but this was a deliberate pitcher who made adjustments and displayed confidence in his arsenal.

What I didn’t see was a great change or curve to complement the rest, nor whiffs on elevated four-seamers like he was able to generate in the minors. The four-seamer is above-average without any elite aspect in its profile, which suggests he’ll need to get more out of the cutter and slider to return exceptional strikeout marks…or live in this realm of a 25% strikeout rate that’s reliant on precision. I think we’d be okay with that.

You need to pick up Zebby (or is it Daniel? His full name is Daniel Zebulon Matthews. Love it.). The lack of a bullying fastball does make for a lower ceiling compared to ULTRA STUDS like Jared Jones or Skenes, but his ability to spot his pitches with a quality arsenal makes him heavily worthwhile in all formats. In fact, he allowed a HR on a 91 mph cutter that’s perfectly spotted inside to LHB Melendez, to which I said out loud “Wow, what a pitch”. Seriously, it was a textbook inside cutter that nine times out of ten induces a cheap can of corn flyout, and I still can’t believe how badly it was crushed. Welcome to the bigs, kiddo.

He gets the Padres next and I can understand the hesitation there. He was limited to just 77 pitches here and it could be a shorter outing again, while facing a stronger offense. We’ve actually seen a bunch of young arms succeed in their first start and get obliterated in their second, so if you’d like to take it easy, go ahead. Personally, I’m going for it and not thinking twice moving forward. He’s a safe command arm with 25%+ strikeout upside for a winning team and a great defense in the AL Central. How can you not love that?

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:

 

Nestor Cortes (NYY) @ CHW (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 104 pitches.

ATTA BOY CORTES. I’ve been awfully down on you and even questioned a start against the CrySox (I know y’all sshhhhh) and to see him step up to locate his pitches well enough to earn at least three whiffs on four different pitches (four-seamer, cutter, sweeper, changeup [!] ) is a great thing. Now is the real question – is this enough for the Guardians up next in the Bronx? I think so…? The Win chance is too high to turn down.

Kevin Gausman (TOR) @ LAA (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 106 pitches.

We’ll take this on all days that end with “-day”. I’ve been critical of his splitter’s lack of whiffs and it’s the same situation here with just 5/34, but that doesn’t mean its command was whack. He’s nailed them down-and-armside for a few starts now and gotten plenty of strikes and outs with them, just not overpowering, and it enables batters to get their hacks on his four-seamer more than we’d like. Gausman is still removed from his ace days but is a certified Holly moving forward.

Valente Bellozo (MIA) @ PHI (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 95 pitches.

Whaaaaat. Enjoy that Gold Star, Valente, because this was awesome. You went Canibal McSanchez with the cutter and didn’t allow a single hit on the pitch at 29% usage and 82% strikes (!), helping the four-seamer live upstairs for a ton of strikes and only a pair of hits. That’s it, really. The curve isn’t a special pitch in the slightest – 6/15 strikes and a single – and the sweeper + change are not dependable. The Phillies just couldn’t figure out the fastball vs. cutter upstairs. It takes a certain level of command to make that work and I’m happy Valente had it today. Not a good chase against the Diamondbacks unless you believe it’s a Vargas Rule blossoming. How about we wait until after that?

Michael King (SDP) vs PIT (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 93 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. The stud threw so many strikes and it was AWESOME. I’m glad the sweeper is back in form. The King with a crown…and a Golden Goal because he’s dope and makes us feel dope.

Hunter Greene (CIN) vs STL (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 106 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. I’m sure you already saw Greene vomit into his glove, which may explain his slight dip in command versus what we’ve seen across the last two months. Not to say he didn’t have any of it (control was great!), it was just far too many sliders and four-seamers merging over the heart of the plate than he wanted. I’m thrilled with the line given those locations and wouldn’t worry about next time. He won’t puke a third time this season, right?

Tarik Skubal (DET) vs SEA (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 88 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. The changeup and heater are still cooking without interruption. Skubal, I gotta say, thank you. It’s really lovely having a stud pitcher consistently produce this year with just a few rare hiccups that are typical of a 30+ start season.

Yusei Kikuchi (HOU) @ TBR (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 92 pitches.

Atta boy Kikuchi. This was mostly just four-seamer/slider with the heater filling up the zone and the slider living down and in town. We saw some changeups and curves, combining for…wait for it…3/16 strikes. Jeeeeeeeeez. Yep. I’m so happy that heater is elite.

Matthew Boyd (CLE) vs CHC (ND) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 80 pitches.

HE’S BACK. That CSW is glorious and a product of Boyd executing his arsenal beautifully. I’m actually aghast to see such good BSB command during a return from TJS (too good?) – just look at this plot. It may be best to get those changeups and sliders a little more out of the zone (40% zone rate each) to return more in the whiff department (6/40 whiffs with 21 swings ain’t ideal), but the precision and execution are truly shocking. I’m a little disappointed we’re still 92/93 mph on the heater after reports of 94+ during rehab as that four-seamer’s shape is not great. Expect a decline in its 44% CSW (obviously) and he could get a rude awakening against the Yankees up next. He’s worth the pick-up, even if it’s a stash. Who knows, maybe he becomes the talk of the town after that one.

Luis L. Ortiz (PIT) @ SDP (L) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 91 pitches.

Ayyyy, atta boy Ortiz! Fewer cutters in this one and very East-West with more breakers out of the zone but not a ton of whiffs to show for it. He didn’t give a ton for the Padres to hit and that’s a lovely thing, though I’m still a little skeptical that the strikeouts can return. He gets the Rangers next and I’d hold off until he gets a better matchup.

Gavin Stone (LAD) @ MIL (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 86 pitches.

Phew. A solid Win for a Toby here, who gave us a little more than expected in the strikeout department. Strong command across the board with stellar pitch separation + his four-seamer carrying the most elite shape of the season paired with a 1.5 HAVAA is all fantastic. I guess I’m back in on Stone now, LIGHT THE BEACONS.

Javier Assad (CHC) @ CLE (ND) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 85 pitches.

He’s horribly inefficient and provides very little in his outings. At least I’ll give him props for just one run in Cleveland. Yay. Forget the man you know from April and May.

Austin Gomber (COL) @ ARI (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 92 pitches.

COL story, bro. No, seriously, I’m happy for you. I hate those high changeups and the far too many hittable four-seamers, but the curve was down and the slider worked out well. Hope it was a great Birthday Party. The cake looked delicious.

Jake Irvin (WSN) @ BAL (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 100 pitches.

Ehhhh, Irvin moved his four-seamer and sinker around effectively, but the curveball was far more erratic than usual. I’m kinda out against the Phillies as we haven’t seen Irvin look like HIM for a good while now.

Charlie Morton (ATL) @ SFG (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 98 pitches.

The Cherry Bomb came through with his very best curveball. You love to see it, as you hug Morton tightly after he leaves the game, not knowing when you’ll see the man in front of you again. But it’s the Angels next! But this curveball isn’t always here, regardless of the opponent. Good luck.

Shane Baz (TBR) vs HOU (L) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 97 pitches.

The curve came back! And the heater was great! Much better, thanks for that, Baz. You were able to avoid Getting Bitten unlike your last start and the four-seamer’s marks are still elite. I really hope that curve is here to stay.

Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) vs COL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 83 pitches.

If this weren’t his second game back from the IL, I imagine we’d have gotten a PQS out of him. He displayed a solid Neckbeard with all his pitches here and I think he’s finding the groove. Get pumped for the Marlins up next.

Kyle Harrison (SFG) vs ATL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 89 pitches.

Great four-seamer locations upstairs that paired with some of his changeups down, though I’m not convinced he’s in a rhythm to trust. Maybe chance it against the White Sox…? Man, that’s a nervous Cherry Bomb start.

Jonathan Cannon (CHW) vs NYY (L) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 95 pitches.

I mean, it’s the Yankees. He didn’t have his best command and yeah, that’s what’s gonna happen in a tough matchup when he isn’t at his best. Oracle Park is next and that’s not the worst deep stream.

Taijuan Walker (PHI) vs MIA (L) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 76 pitches.

Oh look, Taijuan is back from the IL and sitting 91/92 with an 11% CSW splitter. Yay.

Erick Fedde (STL) @ CIN (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 89 pitches.

Blegh. The sweeper went just 8/20 strikes without the splitter/change working, making this a cutter/sinker-only game. That’s not it for Fedde in the life of a Toby.

Kutter Crawford (BOS) vs TEX (W) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 67 pitches.

You know, that’s a Dusty Donut with a Win and sub 1.00 WHIP. And not a HR in sight. Wait, how did all four runs score then? Why, that would be because he was perfect through five, then had a debatable Careful, Icarus as he allowed a run and left the game with the bases loaded in the sixth. Oh. So this was like his April starts but the pen didn’t save him this time? Now you get it! It’s no fun Getting Bitten. His four-seamer did a much better job this time out living upstairs with sweepers sitting away and splitters + curves showing up to help as well. This was a better version of Kutter than we’d seen as of late and makes me a little more comfortable to start him against the Orioles.

Joe Boyle (OAK) @ NYM (ND) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 85 pitches.

Whoa, he actually had a 62% zone rate on his fastball! HOT DANG! How did he have three walks then? Because it’s not consistent lol. And the 52% strike rate on the slider needs to be a bit better, too. I mean, it’s still Boyle after all. It’s the #1 fastball by a mile in Fan4+ from yesterday (142 is stupid), but not well spotted enough without support from the slider to turn it into a legit outing. I’ll be watching more here to see if Boyle can find a balance between it all. Don’t go after this until then – he’s likely gonna be a reliever.

Trevor Rogers (BAL) vs WSN (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 78 pitches.

Blegh. I’ve been praising Rogers’ command over the last month or so and that was not there with his changeup here. That’s the pitch he needs to take the next step. Turn away from Trevorland until we see it thrive.

Carson Fulmer (LAA) vs TOR (L) – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 75 pitches.

Womp womp. He went 44% four-seamer and that’s just not the version of Fulmer I like. We need better breakers and changeups for this to work and it’s a clear pass against the Royals. Maybe he’s a stream by September?

José Ureña (TEX) @ BOS (L) – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 93 pitches.

Remember kids, if you—WE KNOW, DAD.

Paul Blackburn (NYM) vs OAK (L) – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 82 pitches.

Bleeegggh. Not a whole lot of revenge here. At least it’s Miami next and his command isn’t out the window or whatever. That’s still a decent stream.

George Kirby (SEA) @ DET (L) – 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 12 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 86 pitches.

Hahahaha what. Many of you are fortunate for five unearned runs coming off the books here as the Mariners left Kirby out there to dry in the fourth inning. Three home runs, secondaries getting punished down low, and the Tigers sat there and hacked away with freedom. Maybe a tipping thing, maybe an expectation for secondaries that the Tigers game-planned for and made Kirby pay. Sorry for the terrible WHIP y’all, that’s usually the skill Kirby brings to the table. It’s a One Night Bland in a massive way and you have to let your emotions hang out in the corner. Give them the dunce hat, think about what they’ve done, and return over the weekend for a start against the Pirates. He’s fine.

Colin Rea (MIL) vs LAD (L) – 6.0 IP, 7 ER, 10 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 100 pitches.

He needed to have his best command to survive against the Dodgers. Narrator: He didn’t. THANKS, NARRATOR. I think any hope for a Vargas Rule has to be squashed, but he remains a dart throw against the Guardians for those in deep leagues.

Seth Lugo (KCR) @ MIN (L) – 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 83 pitches.

Uhhhhh, what? You had a 2.17 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP and 23% strikeout rate on July 1st. Since then, it’s been a 5.36 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 16% strikeout rate…with a 53% LOB rate along the way. The ICR in that time is a pedestrian 39% and he’s looking like the Toby of last year. I don’t actually believe that – I still consider him a Holly who should be a stable rock who hints at a strikeout per inning – but this has a lot of signs pointing to a Baha Man. Is that a new term? I’ve been workshopping it and it’s time to make it official. We’ve been experiencing Lugo’s career year and this valley has turned him into a 3.00+ ERA arm, but wait. There’s still time. To put an end to this horrible back-and-forth ramble, Lugo is going through a bad moment, he’ll improve, and let’s not expect the world of him.

 

Game of the Day

 

Grant Holmes vs. Robbie Ray – It’s The Real Estate Broker against a southpaw who hasn’t proven he can execute consistently yet but could get an AGA once again. Sign me up.

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

Have Questions? – Join my morning Playback.tv livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday through Friday.

Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)