Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Paul Skenes (PIT) vs STL (ND) – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 96 pitches.
Paul Skenes has put us through a lot this season. He was universally placed inside the top tier of starting pitchers in the preseason and despite an opening day that foreshadowed the season ahead, Skenes followed the 5 ER blip with a 2.37 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and a 31% strikeout rate across his next fifteen games in 87.1 IP. He was Skenes. However, by June, his velocity had been slowly trickling down from 98.2 mph in 2025 to sub-97 mph marks consistently. Leading into Thursday’s affair, the following fifteen starts were a startling decline for the best pitcher on the planet, betraying his title with a 5.06 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 25% strikeout rate in 80 frames. It’s been a journey.
Skenes’ final start is pretty on paper – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 96 pitches – though it still carried the odor of his decline with 96.6 mph four-seamer. I don’t believe he unlocked something new, even if he leaned more into sliders than usual, pulling back on splitters four-seamers to LHB as a result. It’s the final bar in a sonata we will listen to on repeat for the next six months (at least…) and how should we feel about Skenes in 2027?
I sat down with Eno Sarris for an episode of The Craft on Thursday to discuss early 2027 rankings, leading to yet another discussion of how we should perceive Skenes’ future. The (former?) Pirates ace has mentioned the impact of pitching for the WBC, implying it led to fatigue or a possible injury he’s carried all year. The way I see it, we will get a report for an injury or not. If we do, we’ll have a lovely explanation for the year and likely draft him aggressively next season. If we don’t, I want to believe Skenes has tasted the honey and will do everything he can to return to his throne in the off-season. Are you saying you like him no matter what? Yeah, I guess I am. Here’s the kicker – during his poor run, Skenes still had a high SwStr rate. He carried a sub-11% SwStr for an outing just twice during his nadir and I find it hard to believe he’ll return and be more of the blegh. I’m not sure where I’ll have him when I publish my way-too-early 2027 rankings next week, but I think I’m ready to hand-wave one of the strangest collapses of a Top 20 overall SP we’ve ever seen. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Joey Cantillo (CLE) @ BOS (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 80 pitches.
Thank you, Cantillo. There was a rough patch of four games at the end, but the other 15 games were insane at a 2.32 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 31% strikeout rate since June 13th, the day when his four-seam velocity jumped from 90.5 mph to 93.8 mph. He never hit that exact mark again, but it sat 93 mph thereafter, while bumping his curveball usage to 41% after tossing it just 19% of the time previously. I’m a little skeptical in velocity boosts in-season being the catalyst for success in-season, but the pairing of the curveball does make me feel a little better drafting him next year. I’m not sure. (View Game Card)
Ian Seymour (TBR) @ NYY (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 58 pitches.
We’ll take any start of five innings that doesn’t hurt us and I appreciate that Seymour was able to help despite the low pitch count. There’s going to be a lot of talk about Seymour over the winter – a 22% K-BB% is stupid good – and I expect to be on the low-end of the industry. Why? Because I refuse to believe his four-seamer is a 14% SwStr rate pitch. Everything performed so dang well this season and it just doesn’t quite add up to me. His command isn’t spectacular and it sure seems like the Rays still don’t know what to do with him, given his string of games as a follower. We’ll talk later. (View Game Card)
Nick Pivetta (SDP) @ LAD (ND) – 4.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 87 pitches.
After earning 12/177 whiffs in his first three games, here’s 15/87 against the Dodgers because of course he did. It’s awesome to see, not just to get a peak of possible strikeouts again in 2027, but moreso for the Padres as they head to October. I wouldn’t expect the sweeper to return as a staple of the arsenal given its ties to injury at his high arm-angle, but the curveball, four-seamer, and cutter are solid…with a bit of chaos in there, too. I just wish that eight-pitch at-bat to Mookie didn’t end in a single, leading to a hook at 4.2 frames. Whatareyagonnado. (View Game Card)
Tyler Phillips (MIA) @ CHC (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 73 pitches.
No surprises here. I’ll keep an eye on Phillips whenever spring happens, especially to check if he’s added any movement to his Empty Velocity 96 mph four-seamer. Its shape is atrocious, but the curveball is interesting and maybe there’s something more he taps into. Nick, he had a 3.34 ERA on the season! 4.16 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP with an 18% K rate since he was allowed to go more than four innings on May 30th. FINE. (View Game Card)
Cooper Hjerpe (STL) @ PIT (ND) – 3.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 74 pitches.
The man did exactly what we asked for, but left in a 1-1 game. Dang that Dastardly Skenes! I’m curious if Hjerpe can find more velocity on that fastball – it’s vert, 7.2 feet extension, and his legit side-arm delivery (-1 degrees!) means it can surprise batters upstairs, especially if it’s more like mid-90s than flirting with 90 mph. When’s spring start? We don’t know. Oh. Right.
Matthew Boyd (CHC) vs MIA (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 90 pitches.
Props to Boyd for executing the SWATCH lifestyle well by splitting the zone up/down with heaters and slowballs, but the same command of the spring delivered half the whiffs in the fall. Hmmmm. At least the fastball was back to 94 mph – he’s Boyd – and I don’t see why he can’t go over a 20% strikeout rate next year. He is who he is. (View Game Card)
David Sandlin (CHW) @ KCR (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 85 pitches.
I like him and I don’t like him. It’s 96.4 mph but Empty Velocity without good command, yet the 91/92 mph cutter is a great pitch + the 87 mph sweeper is fantastic to both LHB and RHB. Can he figure out the four-seamer a bit before next season? Or will he adapt to pitching backward in full? At least we got the good version against the Royals this time around, and I hope some of you cashed in. (View Game Card)
Andrew Painter (PHI) vs MIL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 93 pitches.
A King Cole for Painter may be a commonality in the future, but a 41% CSW sure won’t. My biggest concern has been the four-seamer’s consistency, and even here its velocity came back to 96 mph yet again…but it kept the 18″+ vert we want to see. It’s major cut action is preventing it from collecting all the whiffs, while the sweeper and slider weren’t as precise down-and-away to RHB as we’ve seen in the past. The new changeup is still great, though, and I’m excited to see this new Painter get an empty canvas next year. (View Game Card)
Kumar Rocker (TEX) vs NYM (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 74 pitches.
We’ll take it ALL DAY. Rocker always gives us something basic, rarely going deep into games, and relying so dang much on that slider to get through the outing (43% usage). I’m not expecting a step forward next year, sadly, and let’s move on. (View Game Card)
Ranger Suarez (BOS) vs CLE (L) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 86 pitches.
A 3.22 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and 23% strikeout rate seems somewhat in line for a good Suarez season. He had his moments losing his command (this was not a good one) and if he has a normal buildup into the season next year, I’d consider him a Holly once again. (View Game Card)
Cam Schlittler (NYY) vs TBR (ND) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 70 pitches.
Aces gonna get limited as he saves some bullets for the playoffs next week. 193.2 IP, 33 starts, 1.95 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 31% strikeout rate. That’s just bonkers. (View Game Card)
Shane Drohan (MIL) @ PHI (ND) – 2.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 47 pitches.
We haven’t seen a whole lot Drohan lately and I’m curious if he’ll get a major role in the rotation next season. I’m still tepid on the overall skillset and wouldn’t be targeting him if he gets a rotation spot unless something stands out in the spring. (View Game Card)
Kyle Leahy (STL) @ PIT (ND) – 2.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 37 pitches.
As expected, Leahy started and made way for Hjerpe shortly into the outing. I know you’re going to see some Leahy sleeper articles in the off-season and I think the only way that comes to fruition is if Leahy takes a step forward. As of now, the heaters are too mid and the overall command is not there on the secondaries for me to bet on a season where you draft Leahy and hold throughout the year. (View Game Card)
Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) @ COL (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 92 pitches.
ERod crawled to the finish line in Coors concluding a 2.89 ERA season out of nowhere despite surrendering 16 ER in his last five games (it was a 2.50 mark on August 26th). This was a Vargas Rule in every way, and I’m looking forward to finding the next one off the wire in 2027. (View Game Card)
Zac Thornton (NYM) @ TEX (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 83 pitches.
He does what he does – lead with the cutter and four-seamer, then steer with the sinker and changeup when he can. I’m kinda interested in him for next season not because I believe he was 100% real this year, but because he clearly has crafty-southpaw command and may take a step forward to do more with it. Don’t just look at this rookie’s FIP or SIERA and call it a day. There’s more to this. (View Game Card)
Tyler Glasnow (LAD) vs SDP (L) – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 11 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 91 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Pretty cool seeing a legit strikeout game this late in the season as many major arms are shut down at this time of the year. Stupid Careful, Icarus with a double and a walk in the seventh (both scored, of course), but that aside, Glasnow’s slider has been far better this year and continued in his final regular season start. We got less of him than I hoped this year (just 74 IP and 13 starts), but the quality is exactly as advertised. I sincerely hope we can get 120+ next year. (View Game Card)
Mason Barnett (ATH) vs HOU (ND) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 87 pitches.
THERE HE IS. Suitman whispers into my ear. Wait, the secondaries were meh and the four-seamer, despite sitting a tick down and being a questionable high-arm angle cut-fastball at 93.7 mph, was the go-to putaway pitch for six strikeouts?! You didn’t have to make that sentence that long. Well, Barnett didn’t have to do something so unsustainable and deceive me into thinking he was his best self! Yeesh. (View Game Card)
Bryan Woo (SEA) vs LAA (L) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 106 pitches.
It’s a Gallows Pole, but did you really have to return for the sixth and allow three more baserunners + two more ER? I think I’ll be drafting Woo a ton last year, as I believe the mid-to-high 3s SP with above-average strikeout rates and 1.10 WHIP are vastly underrated (Ryan, Woo, Shota, and…friends. I know there’s more. I think.). At least the HR problem has disappeared completely. (View Game Card)
Grayson Rodriguez (LAA) @ SEA (W) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 5 BBs, 2 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 104 pitches.
Blegh. I kinda dug the area of the changeup, but it nibbled a bit too much, while the four-seamer wasn’t able to pick up the slack. We saw more of the rare 86 mph slider in here, and I’ll hold a small pocket of hope for Grayson to figure out a proper cutter this offseason. He needs it badly. (View Game Card)
Peter Lambert (HOU) @ ATH (ND) – 2.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 42% CSW, 62 pitches.
Well that’s not how this was supposed to end. For someone so reliable for so long, it’s sad to see Lambert allow more than 3 ER for just the second time since June 29th. Yes, I’m putting him in the “Tobys I’d Consider In The Final Rounds” bucket for 2027, and I hope he can replicate the run he had to some degree. (View Game Card)
Randy Dobnak (KCR) vs CHW (L) – 1.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 42 pitches.
I was really hoping you could survive just one more game. The wheels started falling off at the beginning of the month, but mostly last time out and this was Koufax making up for lost time. It was fun to see you again, Dobnak. No idea when we’ll get another chance. (View Game Card)
Tyler Mahle (ATL) vs CIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 91 pitches.
Mahle was the prize of the trade deadline and it really ruins all the off-season rhetoric when you end a season allowing 7 ER across eight games…plus one with 5 ER to finish it. We’ll see where the velocity is in the spring, and if Mahle is easily at 93 mph with good enough command, I’d consider him as a streamer in the opening weeks once again. (View Game Card)
Brady Singer (CIN) @ ATL (ND) – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 63 pitches.
Singer ended this Aghast From The Past with a 7.91 ERA and 1.89 WHIP across his final twelve starts, where he never allowed fewer than 3 ER. Unreal. (View Game Card)
Tanner Gordon (COL) vs ARI (L) – 3.1 IP, 10 ER, 12 Hits, 4 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 96 pitches.
Welp, let’s say it together. HAISTBMBWT?! Then again, if you’re trying to get butter in Colorado, you should know better. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Bubba Chandler vs. Jackson Jobe – IT’S THE SAME PICTURE.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
Have Questions? – Join my morning Twitch.tv livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday through Friday.
Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
