Spring Training has arrived and as I’ve been writing daily notes for myself to recap all spring training starting pitchers for the Plus Pitch Podcast, I realized I should publish them on the site for quick access.
I’ll be livestreaming every morning 10am-12pm ET at playback.tv/pitcherlist as I watch all of the starts with y’all and answer all your fantasy baseball questions.
Major SP News To Know
Update: The Rangers scratched Cody Bradford from Wednesday’s start with elbow soreness. He’ll be shut down for four-to-five days and hopefully return without a hitch after after his MRI can back clean. It’s another small creak for Jack Leiter’s door opening for a rotation spot, though this doesn’t seem as if Bradford will miss enough time.
Lucas Giolito was removed from his game after one inning with hamstring tightness. He downplayed it during his post game interview, suggesting it was “barely” an injury. He’s getting an MRI today and will likely be on the IL to begin the season. Expect him to return roughly two weeks into the season (or maybe he’s totally fine?) – which opens the door for both Richard Fitts and Quinn Priester to get an early start out of the gate. I’m all for seeing if Richard…fits well on your squads for his first start against the Rangers, which is on Sunday at the latest. Grab Giolito in the last round, IL stash, pick up Fitts, and see how he looks opening weekend. Not good? Cool, drop him for the other SP #4 or SP #5 you were eyeing on the wire.
Brandon Woodruff faced five batters in a minor league game and hit 93-94 mph (not sat) according to Sophia Minnaert. The velocity should climb over time as he ramps up and he makes for another good IL stash at the end of drafts as we expect him to come off the IL in mid-April.
Max Scherzer is scratched from his Thursday start with right-thumb soreness. This sounds absurdly minor and shouldn’t affect his ADP if not for the likely Red tag he’ll get in draft lobbies.
Tyler Mahle did not make his Tuesday start due to forearm soreness. We’ve seen diminished velocity this spring and it’s not a major shock that Mahle isn’t at his best. He could be out of the rotation, opening the door for Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker, or Adrian Houser to grab the SP #5 spot. I’d love taking a flier on Leiter after seeing a new-and-improved version this spring.
Site News
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Expected Rotations By Team
Statcast Games – TV
STL vs. MIA
NYY vs. BAL
PIT vs. NYY
TOR vs. MIN
LAD vs. CLE
TEX vs. LAA
SD vs. CWS
Erick Fedde (STL) – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 0 K. Can I call this our first HAISTBMBWT?! of the year? No? FINE.
Ryan Weathers (MIA) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 3 K. We got FULL DATA! And it’s legit y’all. 98.0 mph heaters (+2.1), 1.4 HAVAA and 17.3″ iVB (+2.5″) is a super legit four-seamer and that alone makes him very much on my radar. I wish he wasn’t on the Marlins + I wish he was better against LHB with the sweeper still failing to land effectively at a 56% strike rate and few landing down-and-away. The changeup was a bit off against RHB, too, but the four-seamer foundation is strong. I’m still grabbing him late in drafts.
Clarke Schmidt (NYY) – 1.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 4 K. He was not feeling his cutter nor sweeper yesterday and those make the foundation of his approach. The command will be better in April, though I’m unlikely to draft Schmidt. I don’t think his skill set is grand enough to favor over late fliers with higher upside.
Albert Suárez (BAL) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 6 K. He was at last year’s 94/95 mph absolutely peppering the top of the zone with said heaters for 6/36 whiffs + cutters underneath against RHB and changeups + curves middle/low to LHB. That’s the best version of Suárez we’ll see and it may be enough for him to earn a rotation spot over Povich. He doesn’t have options unlike Povich.
Paul Skenes (PIT) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K. We got data! And no cutter! Boooo. Welp, aces gonna ace.
Cam Schlittler (NYY) – 3.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 2 K. The next prospect in pinstripes to get a shot after Warren looks to Schlitter, who sits 94 mph with mediocre heaters and tries to pay it with changeups and sweepers. It’s not great. They really need help.
Chris Bassitt (TOR) – 4.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 4 K. Ayyyy just a tick down now! He’s actually ramping up the velo! What a guy. The cutter was a little better whiff wise but wasn’t hitting its spots, while the rest of the arsenal flipped over the plate well. It’s Bassitt, ya’ll. He’s likely a little underrated in your 15-teamers.
Andrew Morris (MIN) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 3 K. He’s kinda interesting? 94/95 mph heaters at 18″ vert with a high arm angle paired with cutters that dip and dive off the four-seamer at 4-5 ticks less + a slider at another four ticks less on the same two-plane angle. A diagonal of three pitches at five mph bands. If he can spot them effectively, it’ll work (start up with everything and use tunneling…?), but it wasn’t the best command here to suggest that’ll come. I’ll keep tabs on him.
Louis Varland (MIN) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 1 K. There is a legit fastball here at 96/97 mph and an absurd 1.7 HAVAA with 6.8 extension, but he can’t command. He has control, but it’s a middle-middle heater without the proper placement to get the most out of his strengths. Come to think of it, watching guys with legit stuff (and decent control!) fail to locate effectively enough to get the best out of their arsenal may be the most frustrating part of pitching analysis. How could you do this to me, Varland?
Roki Sasaki (LAD) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 2 K. Had a fun conversation about Sasaki with the PL community during the morning Playback.tv stream (every weekday morning 10am-12pm ET!) and we’re generally all in consensus that we’re not that impressed with Sasaki for fantasy purposes. The four-seamer is more hittable than 96.3 mph velocity with seven feet of extension would suggest (0/27 whiffs!) and while there is a solution for it (GET THAT DANG THING UPSTAIRS) I haven’t seen a Dodgers starter actually make that change…unless they get traded to Tampa (sup Pepiot). The splitter is fun n whatnot, but it failed to earn consistent strikes and…that’s it. He doesn’t have a good feel for spin and without that heater overpowering batters, I’m awfully concerned. Throw in his innings limitations and you have an SP I’m pushing close to SP #50 in today’s update of my Top 100 SP. It’s too frustrating.
Landon Knack (LAD) – 2.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 0 K. He exists and the Dodgers really don’t want to be in a position to start Knack again. At least there’s 18″ of vert and a good slider here…when he’s cooking.
Doug Nikhazy (CLE) – 1.2 IP, 7 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 2 K. Oh no. I was impressed by Doug in his previous outing with a ton of strikeouts in a short outing but sadly he struggled to get strikes with his four-seamer to a deadly Dodgers lineup (48% strikes?!) and his slider provided too little support at 58% strikes. So it goes, still keep an eye on my IPA (Nik. Hazy.) with his seven feet of extension from the left side, hoping he features more than 13% changeups to RHB in the future.
Jack Leiter (TEX) – 2.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 5 BB, 5 K. Uggggh. So close, Leiter. You finally have a chance to seize a rotation spot and your slider went 2/10 strikes (close but taken on the outside edge) while the changeup failed to land armside to LHB for 8/16 strikes. I’m still chasing this at the end of my drafts with his 98 mph velo, great extension, 17″ of vert, and flat attack angle. That heater should cook and just needs slider strikes against RHB to do so.
José Suarez (LAA) – 0.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 0 K. Oh. Poor fella. He’ll likely see a few starts here and there and the changeup still gets whiffs n all. Just cause he had a bad day doesn’t mean he’ll always have a bad day, even for someone who’s had it rough like Suarez.
Dylan Cease (SD) – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 4 K. The changeup returned and was poorly spotted to go 1/7 whiffs. Pretty cool to see it at just 80 mph with nearly the same movement as his four-seamer, he just needs to get it spotted a bit better and not throw it when batters are expecting anything but heat. The two sinkers we saw to RHB weren’t located inside effectively, sadly, and that’s your ball game. He’s Cease.
Jonathan Cannon (CWS) – 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 2 K. Nothing new from Cannon here as he worked on his sweeper a ton to RHB (50% usage!), We’re avoiding this, of course.
Statcast Games – No TV
CIN vs. COL
AZ vs. KC
Brady Singer (CIN) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 7 K. Uhhh 24 four-seamers?! What. 35% usage with 32% sinkers. Uhhh. I’m not sure I like that for Singer, even if it was 38% CSW and weak contact. Huh. This could be Singer taking advantage of his above-average extension and confounding batters with two different heaters but I don’t quite think this would work. It’ll be too hittable, right?
Kyle Freeland (COL) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 8 K. This was pretty much all RHB, too. The changeup oddly wasn’t a major factor with the curve and slider killing it. Fun to see, not real for a guy in Coors, of course.
Merrill Kelly (AZ) – 3.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 1 K. He’s at 92.3 mph (that’s fine) and generally locating well with his arsenal. I love him in 15-teamers with solid volume and a good defense behind him + what should be decent ratios. He’s a ‘Toby” and that’s cool with me.
Brandon Pfaadt (AZ) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 K. I still see nothing solid for LHB. Sorry Pfaadt, I can’t do it.
Cole Ragans (KC) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 5 K. He sat 97.5 mph (+2.1). PEW PEW PEW. His cutter and slider command are still a little wonky + the changeup backed up inside to RHB a fair amount…but the slider also went 7/15 whiffs and all but the curve (of course) returned a 60%+ strike rate, with 70% on the slider and four-seamer. He’s so good and not even at his peak.
No Statcast – TV
HOU vs. NYM
ATL vs. DET
CHC vs. MIL
SF vs. ATH
Hunter Brown (HOU) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 6 K. Oh my. This is awesome and I wish we had data for it, especially as one of the “haters” of Brown this pre-season. This doesn’t suddenly change things, but I’ll be paying more attention in his next outing, hoping to get a glimpse of something that has significantly changed in Brown’s arsenal.
Tylor Megill (NYM) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 5 K. Until I see Megill confidently locating four-seamers upstairs, I won’t buy into this. I wish I could – we have a Tylord Megill shirt, after all – and I’m standing at the top of the stairs on Christmas morning waiting for the data to let me dart to the joy waiting downstairs.
Grant Holmes (ATL) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 3 BB, 5 K. Three walks are a little odd, but the rest looks normal from this reductive box scoring hunt.
Jack Flaherty (DET) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 2 BB, 3 K. I may be a little low on Flaherty? Nah, there are too many awesome pitchers. I think.
Justin Steele (CHC) – 3.2 IP, 7 ER, 10 H, 0 BB, 3 K. …Like Steele? Okay fair. It’s one start and I don’t have data. Looks like the man got Singled Out at first glance and I’m not shifting my whole draft plan around this. Not fun, though.
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) – 1.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K. Two walks and obvious chaos here. I guess he’s the new Boyle, eh?
Justin Verlander (SF) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 4 K. We really are underrating Verlander in drafts.
Jeffrey Springs (ATH) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 5 K. All I cared about here was a reduction in walks. We got that. Cool.
No Statcast – No TV
BOS vs. PHI
Lucas Giolito (BOS) – 1.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 1 K. He was pulled after this inning due to hamstring tightness. Ugh. Hopefully we will get a true glimpse of him in a week or two.
What To Watch Today On TV
SPs to watch on TV today #SpringSPnotesGet morning updates to EVERY SP via my daily Plus Pitch Podcast AND SP Roundup article on the Pitcher List site.Casey Mize – FF/Splitty enough? Osvaldo Bido – Throw fastball strikes plz.Cody Bradford – All good?Ryan Pepiot – BE. DOPE.
— Nick Pollack (@nickpollack.pitcherlist.com) 2025-03-12T14:30:42.250Z