Spring Training has arrived and as I’ve been writing daily notes for myself to recap all spring training starting pitchers, I realized I should publish them on the site for quick access.
I’ll be livestreaming every morning 10am-12pm ET at playback.tv/pitcherlist as I watch all of the starts with y’all and answer all your fantasy baseball questions.
Major SP News To Know
The Blake Snell sweepstakes has finally concluded after signing a two-year $62 Million with the San Francisco Giants – the most logical fit for the reigning Cy Young winner. With Keaton Winn on track to be on the opening day roster, the recent Daulton Jefferies push for the SP #5 has come to an end. Keep an eye on Jefferies if he gets an opportunity later this season. As for Snell, he may be delayed until the end of the first pass of the rotation given he has yet to start against live batters.
Kevin Gausman is throwing a simulated game on Wednesday as he tests his shoulder. Like Snell, I’d imagine Gausman makes his first start of the season near the back of the rotation to give him more time to recover. That means José Berríos is the opening day starter for the Blue Jays, while Alek Manoah continues his recovery and is scheduled to throw on the side today.
Anthony DeSclafani will start the season on the IL with a forearm strain. He is seeking a medical opinion and is indefinitely out of the Twins rotation. It opens the door for fantasy darling Louie Varland to secure the fifth rotation spot in Minnesota and I’d be all over him in drafts for his first start of the season in Milwaukee.
The Cincinnati Reds are locking in Frankie Montas, Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft, and Nick Martinez as their first four starters. That makes Andrew Abbott the displaced fifth arm when Nick Lodolo returns on April 10th.
Expected Rotations By Team
Statcast Games – TV
BOS vs. MIN
PIT vs. PHI
PHI vs. NYY
Nick Pivetta (BOS) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. He’s a tick down on the heater, 1-2 on the sweeper, and 2+ on the cutter and slider. Not great there, but he earned a ton of strikes on the sweeper (24/30!), even if he failed to get it properly down a ton. The rest wasn’t well commanded like we saw in the second of last year either, and I’m a little spooked by Pivetta at the moment. Command has often been his downfall and my hope was that the cutter and sweeper were finally two secondaries he could locate as he kept the heater and its league-leading iVB upstairs. I may lower him a touch when I update The List on Thursday given my ranking reflected a higher expectation of that command sticking around. We’ll see.
Joe Ryan (MIN) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Still a tick up, though the slider and splitter weren’t as low as they were in his last outing, hitting far too much of the zone for my liking. Just four sinkers thrown, too, and just one doing what it was supposed to do – an early count sinker inside to a RHB for a foul ball. Blegh. Look, it’s still good and I like Ryan more than before with this slider, but I’m waiting to get properly hyped here, you know? He could be a bonafide stud if he can get those secondaries lower.
Martín Pérez (PIT) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. Eight strikeouts while sitting two ticks down on the sinker? Oh Pérez, you rascal. He was his best commanded self around the edges, executing the Neckbeard approach with ease.
Roansy Contreras (PIT) – 1.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. A really great slider, but a poorly commanded four-seamer that nullified the velocity gains to sit 95 mph. Oh Roansy, maybe we’ll see you properly start again one day.
Tyler Phillips (PHI) – 2.2 IP, 8 ER, 11 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. You didn’t know who he was before and you don’t need to now.
Spencer Turnbull (PHI) – 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. That four-seamer is actually a cutter and earned 35% CSW, but nothing else was cooking here. I really didn’t understand how that heater wasn’t a true four-seamer with 2nd percentile iVB until now and everything makes a bit more sense now. He should be four-seamers inside and curveballs to LHB, sinkers with their above-average iHB inside mixed with sweepers to RHB. Doubt we get that polished of an arm, though.
Carlos Rodón (NYY) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. He sat 94.5 mph and topped out at 96.4 mph. This ain’t it. I’m sorry, I really want to say “oh look at the line!” but the only Phillies starters he faced were Brandon Marsh and Alec Bohm. At least he spotted his pitches better this time? I can’t jump in until the velocity floor returns comfortably to 95/96 mph with max velocities at 98 mph or above.
Statcast Games – No TV
HOU vs. MIA
OAK vs. ARI
Hunter Brown (HOU) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. A tick down on the four-seamer while his secondaries went 1/42 whiffs. That doesn’t sound good. Because it isn’t. He can’t get any of his pitches down, which is fine for the four-seamer, not for his breakers and changeup. It does feel like a tweak that can be made, but hot dang, this is not the command I was hoping to see by now.
Bryan Hoeing (MIA) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. Hoeing may make some appearances in the interim for the Marlins and this is my note to say you shouldn’t chase it.
Ross Stripling (OAK) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Hey, I’m happy you have a comfortable rotation spot these days. Good luck fella.
Mitch Spence (OAK) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. You see those strikeouts and hope it’s with an overpowering heater. It’s not. 93 mph with 2/13 whiffs on the pitch, though his curve, cutter, and slider, combined for 5/15 whiffs. Not bad, just not what you’re looking for.
Merrill Kelly (ARI) – 3.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. The changeup is still getting whiffs and the four-seamer is effective at 91/92 mph. Yep, it’s the Kelly you know and honestly, I may have been too harsh on him this draft season. It’s a good team context and Kelly should be a solid Holly this year. Think Bassitt…?
No Statcast – TV
ATL vs. TBR
SEA vs. TEX (Nothing noteworthy here)
LAA vs. MIL
WSN vs. HOU
Max Fried (ATL) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. He’s healthy and that’s all that matters. Sidenote: Is that the first starter to go six frames this spring?
Griffin Canning (LAA) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. I know some are in on Canning, I personally think he’s a bit too hittable for my tastes. Not for me.
DL Hall (MIL) – 3.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Hall went 0-2 on all of the first six batters he faced, then got a flyout at 0-1 on the seventh. There’s polish left to nail down those putaway offerings, but the skill is so obviously there – this is not a guy who doesn’t know where the pitch is going out of his hand. I’m still in.
Josiah Gray (WSN) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 7 BBs, 6 Ks. Seven walks?! Ho boy.
Cristian Javier (HOU) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 1 Ks. He was looking great early with his changeup, then it fell in the fifth. That change is such a gamechanger for him and while this line looks rough, I’m buying into Javier. The heater is still elite and that extra secondary for strikes makes him so much better than 2023.
No Statcast – No TV
CLE vs. CHW
SFG vs. CIN
Tanner Bibee (CLE) – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Nothing to gleam here without any video or data. Gotta hope that Bibee is figuring out his slider and changeup in time for the season.
Drew Thorpe (CHW) – 2.2 IP, 8 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Ohhhhh dear. This has to take him out of the running for the SP #5, right? Nick Nastrini time?!
Kyle Harrison (SFG) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Ayyyy a good Harrison start! That’s a 1.40 WHIP. Oh. Right. At least just one walk?
Frankie Montas (CIN) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. He’s the opening day starter and I’m still blegh on it. I don’t like trusting Montas in Cincy as he’s ultra dependent on his slider and splitter working on a given day.
What To Watch on TV Today
SPs to watch on TV today #SpringSPnotes
Updates daily via Plus Pitch Podcast & SP Roundup article.
Kutter Crawford – Look dope plz. K thx.
Tyler Alexander – Rays gonna like Ray.
Cole Irvin – Velo still up? Spotting heaters & CH?
Chris Bassitt – All good?
JP Sears – FB…— Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) March 19, 2024