Spring Training has arrived and as I’ve been writing daily notes for myself to recap all spring training starting pitchers, I realized I should publish them on the site for quick access.
I’ll be livestreaming every morning 10am-12pm ET at playback.tv/pitcherlist as I watch all of the starts with y’all and answer all your fantasy baseball questions.
Major SP News To Know
Kevin Gausman may not be ready in time, possibly missing the first or second turn of the rotation. That would mean either Mitch White or Wes Parsons becomes the SP #5 during the first turn against the Astros and we’re just going to move on. I’m still in on Gausman, especially if he’s falling into the 6th round because of the injury tag. Enjoy the extra roster spot the first week to get your hand in as many pots chasing exciting SP as possible.
Alec Marsh could be the fifth starter for the Royals, with Jordan Lyles heading to the bullpen. It’s the Astros first, don’t do this.
The Yankees are contenders to sign Jordan Montgomery, though it’s just a rumor at the moment.. It would push out Beeter (or Gil or Warren) from the fifth spot, though JorMont would need some time to ramp up for a week or two into the season.
The Rangers have signed Michael Lorenzen to a one year deal. With Cody Bradford confirmed as their SP #5 and Lorenzen needing some time to ramp up, this has few, if any, implications to start the year. Imagine Lorenzen as the SP #6 when the team inevitably needs one during the year.
Kodai Senga is expected to start throwing again within a week. It would suggest an early May return to the rotation, though timelines are awfully inconsistent at this point. At least he’s progressing.
The Marlins sent Yonny Chirinos to minor league camp. As a possible filler for the fifth spot of the Miami rotation, it narrows the choices to Monteverde, Meyer, and Hoeing, or just a whatever, here are some relievers.
Expected Rotations By Team
I will be covering this morning’s Dodgers vs. Padres game in Friday’s article. I want to be able to watch the game without prior knowledge at 3:00pm ET at The Other Half Brewery in Williamsburg, Brooklyn as part of the Rates & Barrels live podcast event. Come on through! I’ll be there from 3:00pm through well into the evening – 6:00pm start for the live podcast.
Los Angeles Dodgers 5 – San Diego Padres 2
Yu Darvish (SD) vs LAD (ND) – 3.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 72 pitches.
Yu Darvish (SD) vs LAD (ND) – 3.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 72 pitches. I got to watch this at the Other Half event and it was an absolute blast yelling at the TV as Darvish nimbly pitched around the Dodgers batters. Instead of chucking cutters over the plate or throwing outside heaters just to get strikes, Darvish did a great job of turning to his full arsenal of sliders, sweepers, 12(!) curveballs, and even splitters to mix in with sinkers and four-seamers and I love it. He has such a variety that he doesn’t have to give in and even some of those walks were awfully close. I love Darvish when he’s meticulous, not when he’s casual. Sign me up.
Tyler Glasnow (LAD) @ SD (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 77 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Slider was amazing, curve was 3/10 strikes, and you should be thrilled you got five frames from Glasnow…though it is a 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and just three strikeouts. I was promised elite quality per inning! Weird how that works, eh?
Statcast Games – TV
DET vs. MIN
NYM vs. MIA
PIT vs. NYY
Casey Mize (DET) @ MIN (W) – 4.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 70 pitches. He’s still up on the heater, though it’s 94.8 mph (touching 97.7 lol) instead of sitting 96+, but WHATEVER, that heater is dope that’s a wonderful thing. So wild to me how Mize is a brand new guy after TJS. The fact he’s at 70 pitches now outlines how the Tigers are expecting him to be a starter – either in the minors until there’s an opening or possibly beating out Olson – and I’m all for it when he gets the chance. All of that said, 0/11 splitter whiffs is a little annoying (sub 50% strikes, too) and I imagine his sub 60% slider strike rate will improve as well. I was kinda hoping we’d get a more impressive performance from the secondaries, though, while 4/36 four-seamer whiffs is a little underwhelming…
Louie Varland (MIN) vs DET (L) – 4.0 IP, 8 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 0 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 76 pitches. Oh dear. What an emotional ride this spring has been for Varland fans and the good news here is that he’s not in jeopardy of losing the spot…right? Yeah, no way. He simply didn’t locate his heater well (95/96 still!) while the slider, cutter, and change, were all very hittable or easy takes. Don’t worry guys, he can do this. It’s also a positive to see 76 pitches here as he’s essentially stretched out now.
Christian Scott (NYM) @ MIA (W) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 42% CSW, 59 pitches. There’s a whole lot of hoopla about Scott and I’m not quite as stoked, but hot dang that CSW and seven strikeouts. I’m sad we got the Belly Cam – you know, the angle as if you’re lying down in left-center field – but he has a flat arm angle paired with a four-seamer he loves to throw upstairs. This is great. It explains his four-seamer dominance despite its horrid iVB, as an elite VAA at 95/96 and good-enough extension paired with high location = a great time. The biggest concern is the supporting cast. Yes, his sweeper can be filthy, but his changeup absolutely isn’t, and his more hyro slider was used against RHB, not LHB. His plan against lefties was to pummel them with four-seamer (which does work for the most part) and I wonder if he’ll have the struggles of Woo and Miller from 2023 as he cruises with heaters but is still searching for that true weapon to knock out LHB. Either way, when he gets the call, you pick him up and enjoy the ride. I’d expect it by June 1st.
Patrick Monteverde (MIA) vs NYM (L) – 3.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 60 pitches. The Marlins sent Chirinos to the minors and Monteverde is likely a part of the Hoeing/Smeltzer crew finding a few innings in the fifth rotation spot. Don’t chase this.
Marco Gonzales (PIT) @ NYY (L) – 3.2 IP, 9 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 88 pitches. Ohhhh dear. If Marco is actually this consistently poor, maybe Jared Jones‘ spot can actually be real? Or we see Skenes soon? Something something something?
Quinn Priester (PIT) @ NYY (ND) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. – 4 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 56 pitches. Pirates, y’all know it ain’t Priester. He just doesn’t have anything outside of the slider and even that pitch isn’t always there
Luke Weaver (NYY) vs PIT (W) – 3.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 50 pitches. You know, there are some interesting metrics on that four-seamer and I’m glad he’s around after the neck soreness. It’s absolutely possible the Yankees forgo their young arms and elect to throw Weaver out there for a few weeks instead, which isn’t fun for fantasy at all. That said, there’s an argument to made that the Yankees need to win every game they can without Cole and an ailing Judge, which would suggest Luis Gil, who is clearly the best SP option they have. Keep monitoring this.
Statcast Games – No TV
COL vs. ARI
Peter Lambert (COL) @ ARI (L) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 81 pitches. COL story, bro.
Tommy Henry (ARI) vs COL (W) – 3.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 44 pitches. The Diamondbacks are trying to figure out who their SP #5 is with Erod on the mend and it could very well be what we saw today – a mix of Henry + Jarvis. Maybe there’s a vulture Win in there, but you’re better off chasing an actual starter.
Bryce Jarvis (ARI) vs COL (ND) – 3.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. – 9 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 38 pitches. Seriously, don’t big-brain this. The reward is not worth the risk.
No Statcast – TV
TOR vs. ATL
CHC vs. OAK
SFG vs. LAA
PHI vs. BAL
LAA vs. KCR
Bowden Francis (TOR) @ ATL (ND) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Atlanta is tough, though Francis isn’t doing quite enough for me lean forward in my seat. Throw in the TBR + Yankees as his first two outings (Maybe HOU + NYY if Gausman is able be the fourth SP of the year), and I’m not chasing it.
Raisel Iglesias (ATL) vs TOR (ND) – 1.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Wait. You’re not supposed to be here. How did you get through the guards?
Mark Leiter Jr. (CHC) @ OAK (ND) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. Bullpen games are like Mondays. They have to exist but no one is thrilled that they do.
Paul Blackburn (OAK) vs CHC (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. That’s nice Blackburn, you needed a palette cleanser after your last performance. So we’re starting him against the Guardians and Tigers? Absolutely not. Well, save for your deeeep AL-Only as he’ll at least have a shot to go six (waves hand across Blackburn’s line) but that’s riskier than gas station sushi.
Jordan Hicks (SFG) @ LAA (ND) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. I’m still skeptical of Hicks panning out given his inability to consistently earn strikes, and I’m not a fan of featuring him twice against the Padres to start the year. I’d let him sit on the wire and watch from afar until we get better video and data.
Tyler Anderson (LAA) vs SFG (ND) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Look at that fella, killing it as a member of Pitcher Group 7 against a middling Giants crew (don’t ask). Honestly, there is an outside chance he works out as a stream against the Marlins if he has his changeup cooking, though I absolutely hate going for it.
Taijuan Walker (PHI) @ BAL (L) – 2.2 IP, 7 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks. How long are the Phillies going to allow Taijuan to stick in the rotation? Last time we had data he was fighting to get over 90 mph…
Dean Kremer (BAL) vs PHI (W) – 3.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Yeah, that’s alright. Kremer does get the Angels + Pirates to start the year and he does pitch for the Orioles…That’s some sneaky value there for deeper leagues.
Andrew Wantz (LAA) @ KCR (ND) – 2.2 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 0 Ks. The Royals get what they Wantz.
Brady Singer (KCR) vs LAA (ND) – 4.2 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. So, y’all get any more of those third pitches?
No Statcast – No TV
TEX vs. CIN
CIN vs. CHW
STL vs. WSN
Dane Dunning (TEX) @ CIN (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Hot dang, look at you! No proper data here, but we did have incomplete marks that suggested Dunning had 18 whiffs at minimum. Take that however you want, sadly he gets the Rays and Astros early, making it a blegh flier at the end of your drafts. I hope he legit has learned some whiff talents, though.
Rhett Lowder (CIN) vs TEX (L) – 1.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. And no TV or Data to help. Welp, we wait until we get some fun stuff later this year.
Lyon Richardson (CIN) @ CHW (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. He’s what, the tenth option for the Reds?
Michael Soroka (CHW) vs CIN (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Don’t sleep on Soroka. He should get the Tigers and Royals to kick off the season and I’m hearing rumblings of a new four-seamer + I saw sliders down-and-in to LHB as a putaway pitch – a skill he didn’t have in Atlanta. This could be super fun.
Steven Matz (STL) @ WSN (W) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. The Dodgers are up first. Why would you do that.
Zach Davies (WSN) vs STL (L) – 3.2 IP, 9 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Ah. Still the #6 SP, though. Welcome to DC, the comical rotation.
What To Watch on TV Today
Spring SPs to watch on TV today #SpringSPnotes
Updates daily via Plus Pitch Podcast & SP Roundup article.
Nestor Cortes – 92 mph? Good CT and SL?
Charlie Morton – Anything working outside CB?
Matt Manning – PLEASE BE 95
Dominic Hamel – This kid is kinda good y'all
J.P. France -…— Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) March 21, 2024
Hicks actually looked really good. Struggled with his command to start but then dialed it in and I was surprised at the variety he used. Picked up strikeouts with 4 different pitches, and the Split looked GROSS.