Spring Training has arrived and as I’ve been writing daily notes for myself to recap all spring training starting pitchers, I realized I should publish them on the site for quick access.
I’ll be livestreaming every morning 10am-12pm ET at playback.tv/pitcherlist as I watch all of the starts with y’all and answer all your fantasy baseball questions.
Major SP News To Know
Max Meyer has made the Marlins opening day roster. It likely means he starts in the #5 spot and I’m not sure how they’ll use him moving forward. It may mean Ryan Weathers moves out of the rotation when Braxton Garrett returns (Meyer is the only current RHP!), though the Marlins could be using a crew of arms to hold him back to five innings or fewer early in the year. Worth a spec add but I’m not jumping over hurdles to get him.
Jakob Junis is dealing with a minor shoulder issue though it’s not expected to be serious. It may have ramifications for the Brewers rotation if it lingers, opening the door for Robert Gasser or Aaron Ashby entering the rotation sooner than expected.
Justin Steele took an arrow a comebacker to the knee and left yesterday’s game early. He’s apparently doing fine and we shouldn’t shift our previous conceptions for 2024.
Blake Snell will pitch on Sunday and is stretched out to roughly 60 pitches. I’d expect him to go about 70 pitches in his season debut for the Giants early in the year – no reason not to get those innings in the majors, in my view.
Sonny Gray will start the season on the IL and is expected to return around April 11th when the 15-day window has passed. Zack Thompson will take his spot and is not fantasy relevant.
Both Kyle Bradish and John Means are expected to pitch “early in the 1st half of the season.” That sounds like mid-May to me, but interpret that as you like.
Great news on Eury Perez – He will not require surgery and has been diagnosed with elbow inflammation. He will out “multiple weeks” but should return before too long. Phew.
Sawyer Gipson-Long will start the season on the IL. Great news for fantasy managers – stashing SGL does not take a roster spot now in standard leagues, making him a solid IL stash for the first month of the year. Don’t hold onto him if you need that IL spot, though.
Expected Rotations By Team
Statcast Games – TV
DET vs. PHI
NYM vs. NYY
BOS vs. TOR
Tarik Skubal (DET) – 5.0 IP 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Aces gonna ace. The dude just bullies with that heater despite its decent-not-elite shape. Kinda awesome.
Zack Wheeler (PHI) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. Aces gonna ace. I’m aware of the velocity dip thus far at 94/95 instead of 96 mph, but I imagine that will climb in season.
Luis Gil (NYY) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. I really want it to be Gil. The 97 mph heater is cooking and the slider + changeup returned 65% strikes between them. Only question is if the Yankees prefer the power arm over the efficient arm.
Will Warren (NYY) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks. Who, me? Yeah you, Mr. groundball fiend who went 80% sinker/sweeper and just 1/71 whiffs. Y’all know this ain’t the fantasy play you want if the Yankees go this way and I’ll riot if they do. WE WANT GIL DANGIT.
Mitch White (TOR) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Soooo that fastball velocity is still up but not stupid up, sitting 95 mph after 94 mph last year, though its 8/38 whiffs and 37% CSW is still pretty cool. I’m not sure that’s enough to make us go after White if he finds himself as the SP #5 while Gausman heals (White would get @HOU. No thanks), but at least it’s something to be aware of, especially if the breakers become more of a threat.
Statcast Games – No TV
SEA vs. ARI
Emerson Hancock (SEA) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. We’re gonna likely see Hancock later this year as the SP #6 option for the Mariners. He’s a Toby at best with sinker/sweeper/change and we can move on.
Ryne Nelson (ARI) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks. Ayyyyy the velocity was back up to 95/96 mph as the pitched returned 11/47 whiffs. Now that’s the good stuff. He kept it upstairs, mostly, and if he could just get that cutter a little lower, we’d be cruising. As long as his final tuneup carries the same heater, I’d be down for his start hosting Rockie Road as a test play.
No Statcast – TV
SFG vs. CHC
TEX vs. CLE
COL vs. TEX
CHW vs. LAA
KCR vs. MIL
Keaton Winn (SFG) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks. Winn returned to the mound and it looks like he’s good enough to be the SP #5. Still not much of a fan as I don’t buy the splitter a ton and there isn’t much else.
Daulton Jefferies (SFG) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Winn looks ready to be the guy in the rotation, though I still feel Jefferies is kinda sneaky if he gets his chance. NL-Only leagues, of course.
Justin Steele (CHC) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks. He left the game after he took a comebacker to the knee. All is good.
Hayden Wesneski (CHC) – 0.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks. He was called on quicker than expected after Steele took the comebacker. He’ll likely follow Assad and could be a vulture Win target if you’re into that. I’m not.
Cody Bradford (TEX) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. He’s the #5 starter I guess. Isn’t it Michael Lorenzen? Oh. Maybe. Does it matter? Fair.
Shane Bieber (CLE) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Yeah, I wish we had data this spring on Bieber, but everything I’ve seen and read has me regretting not ranking him higher earlier in draft season. I wonder if he’ll be the first focus of The List…I’m all for drafting Bieber with his improved breakers and back to 93 mph instead of hovering 91 mph.
Kyle Freeland (COL) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Oh boy. Are we actually streaming him at @ARI and @CHC the opening week? That velocity is 3-4 ticks up…
Jose Ureña (TEX) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Expect Ureña to hang around a little as a potential “oh snap, we need innings” guy, but if the Rangers ultimately want Yerry Rodríguez as that guy in the majors, they could release him. Either way, meh.
Jack Leiter (TEX) – 2.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. I’m curious to get some data on Leiter in Triple-A and hopefully get encouraged for Leiter to make his debut in the rotation later this year. I wonder if his flat heater can be spotted well enough to soar and if he has his secondaries working well.
Joe Boyle (OAK) – 3.0 IP, 7 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Nine baserunners in three frames should tell how the command is just that bad.
Jake Woodford (CHW) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. Ah yes, the Amish Mustang, trying to steal that last rotation spot. But he has no electricity! Ayyyyy.
José Soriano (LAA) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. Hot dang, look at you! No data and the “Belly cam” that gives me a horrible angle to view the fella is all kinds of frustrating as I try to determine if it’s okay to be hyped or not. Remember, he threw 96+ mph last year, and a lot of those strikeouts yesterday were on nasty sliders down-and-gloveside. But no data. It’s possible Soriano forces his way into this rotation, but until we get some confirmation, I have to wonder he’ll head to the minors to stay stretched out instead of joining the team in a bullpen role. At least we’ll get some data there.
Cole Ragans (KCR) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. After a stupid good first, Ragans was hit a bit and wasn’t able to work batters nearly as well in the second and fourth. Nick, you’re obviously too high on Ragans. Maybe I am – his heater is getting hit more than I expected, while I sit here and watch Skubal’s four-seamer do more damage in the zone than Ragans’. But then I keep going back to the five-pitch mix, the improved velocity, and the fact he’s ramping up in the spring to get the consistency that reduces the frequency of those terrible frames. I also have to mention how hyper aware I am of being the high man on Ragans that it’s become a joke of itself. I absolutely hate the concept of being thought of blindly biased n all and constantly re-think if I should be pulling the pendulum back a bit. But I can’t – Ragans’ potential is too high and the floor is there. I’m in.
Bryse Wilson (MIL) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. I wonder if the Brewers will let Wilson start if Junis isn’t ready. Shudders.
No Statcast – No TV
CIN vs. OAK
CHC vs. SFG
MIL vs. SEA
Graham Ashcraft (CIN) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks. Oh hey! The command is still bad! I thought you were going say something new. Not a chance.
Alex Wood (OAK) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Hey that’s cool. Hey that’s also a poor lineup and just three innings and no data.
Javier Assad (CHC) – 3.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. He’s “starting” for the Cubs in the interim as Taillon heals and you shouldn’t care about it.
Logan Webb (SFG) – 4.1 IP, 9 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Yes, it’s okay to feel scared here. I am a bit. And then we remember it’s the spring and a guy like Webb is smart to save his bullets. I’m not going to change course.
Freddy Peralta (MIL) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks. Walks are annoying, the strikeouts are cool. We good, let’s hope the rhythm is here.
Luis Castillo (SEA) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks. Aces gonna ace.
What To Watch on TV Today
Spring SPs to watch on TV today #SpringSPnotes
Updates daily via Plus Pitch Podcast & SP Roundup article.
Bryan Bello – SL whiffs?
Jared Jones – YOOOOOO. GET THAT SPOT
Zach Eflin – All good?
Aaron Civale – SL whiffs?
Spencer Strider – AGA
Kenta Maeda – Please be okay
Yusei…— Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) March 23, 2024